Itaú BBA - $6.7 billion trade surplus in April

Macro Brazil

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$6.7 billion trade surplus in April

mayo 4, 2020

Larger-than-expected exports in the last week of the month yield stronger trade surplus in April


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The trade balance in April was positive by $6.7 billion, beating our forecast ($5.9 billion surplus) and market estimates ($6.1 billion surplus). Larger-than-expected exports in the last week of the month were behind the surprise vs. our call. 

 The balance resulted from $18.3 billion exports and $11.6 billion imports and is slightly stronger than the $5.7 billion surplus posted one year earlier. The annualized seasonally adjusted quarterly moving average for the trade balance advanced to $52 billion from $35 billion.

 April figures reflect the slowdown in global trade and declining economic activity in Brazil due to the coronavirus epidemic. In upcoming releases, exports as well as imports should remain at lower levels than those seen recently.

 

Julia Gottlieb
Thales Caramella


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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