Itaú BBA - $46.7 billion trade surplus in 2019

Macro Brazil

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$46.7 billion trade surplus in 2019

enero 2, 2020

The trade surplus declined in 2019, but remained at a historically-high level.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

  The trade surplus in 2019 was narrower than in recent years but remained at a historically-high level.

 Exports fell in 2019 due to the slowdown in global trade and major trading partners, such as Argentina. Imports also retreated. It is worth noting, however, that throughout 2018 these were inflated by import transactions involving oil-drilling rigs following the change in the Repetro tax regime. Excluding these transactions, imports would have increased in 2019, in line with the gradual recovery in economic activity.

 In December, the trade surplus reached $5.6 billion, driven by $18.2 billion in exports and $12.6 billion in imports, down from $6.6 billion one year earlier. The trade balance's seasonally-adjusted annualized quarterly moving average rose to $51 billion from $48 billion in November. 

 In 2020, we expect the trade surplus to decline further to $40 billion, in line with the economic rebound and consequent increase in imports.

 

Julia Gottlieb


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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