Itaú BBA - 2019 ends with seasonally-adjusted unemployment at 11.6%

Macro Brazil

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2019 ends with seasonally-adjusted unemployment at 11.6%

enero 31, 2020

Participation rate supports the decline in unemployment in late 2019


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 The unemployment rate reached 11.0% in December, in line with market expectations and below our estimate (11.2%). Seasonally adjusted unemployment slid to 11.6% from 11.7% in November.

 The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate fell to 23.6% from 23.8%.

 Real wages dropped 0.3% compared to the quarter ended in November, seasonally adjusted. Growth in the real wage bill slowed to 2.5% from 3% in year-over-year terms, reflecting the sharp and temporary increase in December inflation, which reduces real income and imposes negative bias on consumer spending (including retail sales) during that month.

 We forecast a slow decline in the unemployment rate going forward, notwithstanding the gradual pickup in economic activity.
 

Luka Machado Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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