Itaú BBA - Macro Brazil

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.83% in June and 8.13% yoy  

    IPCA-15 continues to indicate underlying inflation under pressure in June.

  • Record trade balance supports a current account surplus  

    Current account surplus with trade balance as the main driver.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: assessing risks  

    The June IR brought interesting studies on risks related to higher interest rates in the U.S and a decline in commodity prices and/or the exchange rate.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination continues to accelerate in Brazil  

    Daily pace is nearing 1.4 million shots in the country.

  • Copom Minutes: faster tightening ahead  

    We now expect a 1.0 pp increase in the Selic rate at the August Copom meeting, and 6.5% p.a. at the end of the cycle.

  • IDAT-Activity – Brazil  

    The 7-day moving average declined 0.8 points, to 103.0.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination pace picks up in Brazil  

    The vaccination pace in Brazil reached the mark of 1 million per day, on a weekly average and considering the sum of first and second doses.

  • Copom: expectations targeting?  

    The Copom signaled another 75-bp hike in August, but indicated that the tightening pace may increase if expectations continue to go up

  • Copom Cockpit: keeping the pace  

    We expect the Copom to raise Selic by 75 bps, remove reference to partial normalization, and signal a hike of the same magnitude in August

  • Pandemic monitor: new cases show signs of decline in Brazil  

    In Brazil, new cases started to recede, but coming from very high levels.

  • IPCA climbs 0.83% in May and 8.06% yoy  

    Stronger-than-expected IPCA in May, and underlying inflation remains under pressure.

  • Retail sales stronger than market expectations, in line with our call  

    Widespread growth

  • IDAT-Employment and Wage: formal employment rebounds to pre-pandemic levels in May  

    Labor market continues to recover, with the number of formal employees back to the pre-pandemic level

  • Pandemic monitor: new cases stop rising in Brazil  

    New cases stop rising, but remain at high levels in Brazil.

  • Industrial production declines in April 21  

    Most segments drop at the margin

  • GDP growth beats expectations in 1Q21  

    GDP rebounds to pre-pandemic level

  • Trade surplus of $9.3 billion in May  

    Strong trade surplus due to increase in exports.

  • Fiscal results surprising positively  

    Medium-term challenges remain, though

  • Households drive growth in new non-earmarked loans  

    Seasonally adjusted overall delinquency remained virtually stable at 2.1%.

  • A recovering labor market  

    IDAT-Employment points to 14.1% unemployment rate

  • Pandemic monitor: cases still on the rise in Brazil, but vaccination can help contain deaths  

    The pressure of new pandemic waves on the health system may not be as intense as in the second wave.

  • Lower pressure on the current account at the margin   

    Improvement in the current account due to the strong trade surplus driven by the increase in exports

  • Pandemic monitor: new cases increasing in Brazil  

    Increases in new cases and hospital admissions in Brazil bring concern. In the rest of the world, India shows further signs of stabilization

  • IDAT-Employment and Wage: gradual recovery in the labor market continues in April  

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  • Pandemic monitor: following the easing of isolation measures, economy accelerates sharply in Brazil  

    Reopening in several states supports a sharp recovery of the economy. In the rest of the world, India shows some early signs of improvement.

  • IPCA climbs 0.31% in April and 6.76% yoy  

    Slightly-better-than-expected underlying inflation in April, with highlights to services prices.

  • Copom Minutes: partial adjustment  

    The minutes suggests that the Copom will hike rates in June, by 75 bps, then slow down the pace towards a pause at 5.5% pa

  • Milder-than-anticipated retail sales decline in March   

    Supermarket sales prevent a steeper monthly drop

  • Pandemic monitor: improvement trend continues in Brazil  

    Curves of new cases and deaths continue to fall in the country. In the rest of the world, India remains at center stage.

  • Industrial production drops 2.4% mom/sa in March  

    Despite a decline, output remains near pre-pandemic levels

  • Copom: mixed message  

    Copom raises Selic by 75 bps and signals a new hike of equal magnitude in June, but still foresees partial normalization.

  • Soaring exports drive record trade surplus in April  

    Stronger trade result, especially due to the substantial increase in exports

  • Copom Cockpit: another 75-bp increase in the Selic rate   

    We believe the scenario remains consistent with the Copom signaling that it would be appropriate to repeat the 75-bp hike at the May meeting

  • Primary surplus of BRL 5.0 billion in March  

    Fiscal results slightly better in the last months

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate reaches 14.5%  

    PNADC suggests slow recovery in employment

  • Corporations drive new loans increase in March  

    Seasonally adjusted overall delinquency slid by 0.1 p.p. to 2.2%.

  • Pandemic monitor: news signs of improvement in Brazil  

    Curve of new cases and deaths continue to recede in the country. In the rest of the world, the strong deterioration in India remains in focus.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.60% in April and 6.2% yoy  

    April IPCA-15 below expectations. Underlying inflation a bit better than expected, with highlight for services.

  • Current account deficit under pressure at the margin  

    The trade balance has been weaker at the margin, but this situation is set to be temporary.

  • Pandemic monitor: renewed signs of stabilization in Brazil   

    Improvement in surge indicators is leading to easing social isolation measures in several states.

  • Pandemic monitor: ICUs in Brazil see some relief at the margin  

    Regarding vaccination in the country, the daily pace is hovering around 770k doses, slightly up in April.

  • Retail sales strong in February, but a decline is expected for March  

    Vehicle sales boosted the broad retail index.

  • IPCA climbs 0.93% in March and 6.10% yoy  

    IPCA rises 0.93% in March pressured by vehicle fuels.

  • Pandemic monitor: Brazil surpasses the mark of 1 million vaccinated in a day  

    Coverage is close to 10% of the population

  • Industrial production falls 0.7% mom/sa in February  

    Industrial production remains at high levels, despite the drop at the margin.

  • Trade surplus of $1.5 billion in March  

    With $24.5 billion exports and $23.0 billion imports in the month, the surplus was smaller than in March 2020.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination accelerates in Brazil  

    Numbers worsen in Brazil, but there are signs of relief in São Paulo.

  • Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 14.7% in January  

    Employment continues to recover, led by informal jobs.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 11.8 billion in February  

    Fiscal rebalance challenge continues

  • New loans rebound in February  

    Seasonally adjusted overall delinquency went up by 0.1 p.p. to 2.3%

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.93% in March and 5.52% yoy  

    The mid-month IPCA-15 inflation print was pressured by fuel prices, but underlying measures are still on the rise

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: forecasts point toward continuity  

    In our view, the March 2021 inflation report is consistent with further interest rate hikes over the next Copom meetings.

  • Pandemic monitor: the outbreak worsens in Brazil, but there are local signs of relief  

    The number of patients with respiratory symptoms has been falling in São Paulo, suggesting some relief for the health system of that capital

  • Copom Minutes: uncompromisingly hawkish  

    The minutes repeat the signal that the next move will be a 75-bp hike, which we expect to materialize.

  • Pandemic monitor: healthcare system under pressure in Brazil  

    From this edition onward, we will cover in more detail the progress of vaccination and the levels of hospital utilization in Brazil

  • Copom: faster out of the gate  

    The Copom decided to hike the Selic rate by 75bps and signaled the intention to repeat the current pace in the next policy meeting

  • Copom Cockpit: the start of the Selic rate hiking cycle  

    In our view, the Copom will raise the Selic rate by 50bps to 2.50% p.a. at its next monetary policy meeting.

  • Falling retail sales in January  

    Widespread decline

  • IPCA climbs 0.86% in February and 5.20% yoy  

    Higher than expected February's IPCA inflation. Underlying goods inflation remains under pressure at the margin.

  • Pandemic monitor: the outbreak continues to worsen in Brazil  

    The outbreak reaches new highs in Brazil, leading states to tighten or renew recently implemented isolation measures

  • Industrial production expands 0.4% mom/sa in January  

    Rising production of capital goods

  • GDP declines 4.1% in 2020  

    Significant recovery in 2H20

  • Pandemic monitor: outbreak reaches new highs in Brazil  

    Both the number of new cases and new deaths accelerated again in Brazil, surpassing the record levels seen at the beginning of the year

  • Trade surplus of $1.2 billion in February  

    Data from the past few months show a weaker trade balance. This phenomenon should be temporary

  • Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ends 2020 at 14.7%  

    Employment continues to recover

  • Primary surplus of BRL 58.4 billion in January  

    A challenging fiscal rebalance ahead

  • New loans decline again in January  

    Seasonally-adjusted overall delinquency remained virtually unchanged at 2.2%.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination pace in Brazil remains moderate  

    Arrival of new doses and inputs for local production in Brazil may improve the pace of vaccination ahead.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.48% in February and 4.57% yoy  

    February's IPCA-15 close to expectations. Underlying goods inflation remains under pressure, but services already showing relief.

  • Current account deficit of US$7.3 billion in January  

    Arrival of new doses and inputs for local production in Brazil may improve the pace of vaccination ahead.

  • Pandemic monitor: Chile leads vaccination in EMs  

    In addition to logistic factors, Chile has a deal to purchase shots from 4 different labs.

  • Retail sales fall in December   

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  • Pandemic monitor: global outbreak continues to slow down  

    New deaths curve begins to follow the improvement trend in new cases.

  • IPCA rises 0.25% in January and 4.56% yoy  

    Lower than expected IPCA in January, but underlying inflation remains pressured at the margin.

  • IPCA rises 0.25% in January and 4.56% yoy  

    Lower than expected IPCA in January, but underlying inflation remains pressured at the margin.

  • Pandemic monitor: Brazil surpasses 1.0% of the population vaccinated  

    The rate of vaccine rollout remains moderate

  • Industrial production finishes 2020 on a strong note  

    Low industrial inventories at the beginning of the year

  • Better-than-expected trade deficit in January  

    Higher exports and falling imports by the end of the month were behind the surprise in relation to our scenario

  • Primary deficit of BRL 703 billion (9.5% of GDP) in 2020  

    .Fiscal challenge increased in 2020.

  • High unemployment rate, despite rebound in employment  

    Employment is on the rise, but the unemployment rate remains in historically-high levels

  • New loans decline in December  

    .Seasonally adjusted overall delinquency remained virtually unchanged at 2.3%.

  • Current account ends 2020 with a deficit of 0.9% of GDP  

    Current account deficit narrowed to 0.9% of GDP in 2020 due to wider trade surplus and smaller service and income deficits

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccine rollout advances slowly in Brazil  

    The country reached the mark of 0.40% of the population already vaccinated, according to Our World in Data estimates.

  • Copom Minutes: imminent lift-off  

    The Copom minutes signal a possible imminent hike in the Selic rate. We now expect an increase of 25 bps at the March meeting.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.78% in January and 4.30% yoy  

    IPCA-15 close to expectations, but with underlying inflation pressured at the margin.

  • Copom: how transitory is transitory?  

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, and, as expected, scrapped the forward guidance that precluded short-term rate hikes.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination kicks off in Brazil  

    In the rest of the world, immunization campaigns continue to gain traction.

  • Broad retail sales continue to rise, but core sales decrease slightly  

    Retail sales sensitive to income lose steam at the margin

  • Copom Cockpit: end of forward guidance, but on hold  

    We believe that the Copom will withdraw its forward guidance, but it will keep the Selic rate at 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination accelerates in the U.S. and U.K.  

    In Brazil, vaccines await Anvisa’s approval, but new cases continue to increase.

  • IPCA climbs 1.35% in December and closes the year at 4.52%  

    The indicator came in higher than expected, and ended 2020 with an increase of 4.52%.

  • Industrial production continues to increase, and inventories remain low  

    Industrial production enjoys a Strong recovery process.

  • Pandemic monitor: deployment of vaccines continues  

    In countries that have not yet started vaccinating, negotiations to start their own vaccination campaigns quickly are ongoing.

  • Trade surplus of $51 billion in 2020  

    Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic.

  • Pandemic monitor: U.K. approves Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine  

    Approval by the European country sets an important precedent for emerging regions, including Brazil.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 18.1 billion in November  

    Fiscal results better at the margin

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate reaches 14.4%  

    Recovering employment.

  • Continuing increase in new loans in November  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 2.2%.

  • Pandemic monitor: new strain raises concerns, but vaccination continues  

    Fears about virus mutation are offset by optimism with vaccines

  • IPCA-15 climbs 1.06% in December and 4.23% in 2020  

    IPCA-15 ends the year with a 4.23% increase, from 3.91% in 2019.

  • Small current account surplus in November  

    Smaller-than-expected current account surplus in November due to stronger profits and dividends outflows.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: little room for surprises  

    There is little room for negative inflationary surprises in 1Q21, while positive surprises may anticipate the end of forward guidance.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccine distribution begins in the United States  

    In the U.S., the first doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine started to be distributed this week.

  • Copom Minutes: Forward Guidance in the Summer  

    Minutes clarify conditions to discard forward guidance. Given our inflation forecast, we expect this to happen only in the fall (S. Hem.)

  • Retail sales continued to increase in October  

    Strong retail sales in October. We expect a deceleration in the coming months.

  • Copom: forward guidance at risk  

    The committee kept the Selic rate at 2.0% p.a., as widely expected, at its last monetary policy meeting for 2020.

  • Pandemic monitor: U.K. starts vaccination, U.S. to follow soon  

    Europe and Brazil to start vaccinating in early 2021.

  • IPCA increases 0.89% in November and 4.31% yoy  

    Food-at-home and housing prices came in above expectations.

  • Copom Cockpit: stable rates, persisting risks  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low (2.00% p.a.) at its meeting on December 8 and 9.

  • GDP climbs 7.7% qoq/sa in 3Q20  

    The breakdown among components shows a V-shaped recovery in the goods sector.

  • Pandemic monitor: outbreak begins to decelerate in the U.S.  

    Worsening trend in the region has reversed in the past few days.

  • Continuing gains in industrial production  

    In October, industrial production climbed 1.1% mom/sa

  • Imports on the rise, but trade surplus remains high in November  

    Last month's figures begin to show some normalization in imports, but overall surplus remains high.

  • Primary surplus of BRL 3.0 billion in October  

    Fiscal challenges are high.

  • Continuing increase in non-earmarked loans in October  

    The seasonally-adjusted deliquency rate in the system remained broadly stable.

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate reaches 14.8%  

    Employment improves at the margin

  • Pandemic monitor: second wave retreats in Europe  

    In Brazil, relative stability of cases and deaths at the margin, but hospitalizations on the rise.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.81% in November and 4.22% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rose 0.81% in November, above expectations. Some services (food away from home and transportation) prices accelerated at the margin.

  • Pandemic monitor: signs of deceleration in new cases in Europe  

    New cases show signs of improvement in Europe, but continue to rise in the US. In Brazil, cases also increased, but with some distortions.

  • Retail Sales continue to increase in September  

    Retail sales are well above their pre-crisis levels

  • Pandemic monitor: cases in the U.S. continue to accelerate  

    Second wave remains in focus, particularly in Europe and in the U.S. In Brazil, official data remains unavailable due to system issues.

  • IPCA climbs 0.86% in October and 3.92% yoy  

    IPCA rises 0.86% in October. Core inflation continues to accelerate at the margin.

  • Industrial production reaches pre-crisis level  

    Industrial production increases 2.6% mom/sa in September

  • Pandemic monitor: Europe remains in focus  

    Second wave in the U.S. and in Europe remains in focus. In Brazil, the number of new cases resumed its downward trend.

  • Trade surplus remains high in October  

    Still weak imports keep trade surplus at historically-high levels

  • Copom Minutes: stable rates, as risks net out  

    We see the minutes as consistent with our view that the committee will leave the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, until late 2021.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 64.6 billion in September  

    Fiscal challenges remain high

  • Unemployment rate reaches 14.4%  

    Low participation rate prevents sharper increase in unemployment

  • Pandemic monitor: Europe still in the spotlight  

    .

  • Copom: a hawkish swerve  

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged at 2.0% p.a., as had been expected by the market, and tweaked its communication in a hawkish direction.

  • Non-earmarked loans continue to recover in September  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.2 p.p. to 2.4%.

  • Another current account surplus in September  

    September marks the sixth consecutive monthly current account surplus. Over 12 months, the CAD reached 1.4% of GDP.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.94% in October and 3.52% yoy  

    IPCA-15 advances 0.94% in October, pressured by food and airfare prices. Core inflation also accelerated.

  • Copom Cockpit: fiscally-dependent guidance  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting.

  • Pandemic monitor: second wave in Europe continues to gain momentum  

    New deaths in Europe are now rising faster, but still at trend that is proportionally much smoother than in the first half of the year.

  • Pandemic monitor: second wave intensifies in developed countries  

    Economic activity continues to improve in Brazil

  • Retail Sales continue to increase  

    Furniture & appliances and construction material boost retail sales

  • Pandemic monitor: economic activity approaches pre-crisis levels in Brazil  

    Our daily indicator for Brazil continues to rise and has momentarily surpassed pre-crisis levels during the past week.

  • Trade surplus remains wide   

    Imports were stronger than expected in September, but remain at low levels. Trade Surplus remains wide.

  • Pandemic monitor: trend of gradual improvement continues in Brazil  

    Case counting also shows a downward trend in India and some stabilization (but still quite preliminary) in some European countries.

  • Unemployment rate reaches 13.8%  

    Lower participation rate prevents sharper increase in unemployment

  • Primary deficit of BRL 87.6 billion in August  

    .Fiscal challenges are high

  • New non-earmarked loans advance in August, led by households  

    The average interest rate and spread decreased.

  • New non-earmarked loans advance in August, led by households  

    .

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: stable Selic rate  

    The report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the maintenance of the Selic rate at a low level for a long period.

  • Pandemic monitor: economic activity accelerates further in Brazil  

    News cases show some stabilization in India, but continue to accelerate in most of Europe

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September and 2.65% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September. Pressure on food prices is expected to continue for the next readings.

  • $3.7 billion current account surplus in August  

    Slower economic activity, a weaker exchange rate and social isolation have been impacting the current account

  • Copom Minutes: reaffirming forward guidance  

    The Copom minutes reinforce that their forward guidance (low rates for long) still applies

  • Pandemic monitor: after significant improvement, Brazil has slight increases at the margin  

    The 7-day moving averages jumped with the latest bulletin, because data for the Sep. 7 holiday dropped out, not because of a change of trend

  • Copom: stable rates, as expected  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate amid fiscal uncertainties  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting

  • Core retail sales exceed pre-crisis level  

    Core retail sales on the rise

  • Pandemic monitor: new deaths continue to retreat in Brazil  

    After months hovering around 1000 per day, new deaths in Brazil seem to have entered a clear downward trend

  • IPCA rises 0.24% in August and 2.44% yoy  

    IPCA rises 0.24% in August, with pressure on food prices and relief in the education group

  • Continuing recovery in industrial production  

    Strong and widespread growth.

  • Pandemic monitor: declining deaths in Brazil  

    New deaths receded again in Brazil, reaching the same levels of the second half of May

  • $6.6 billion trade surplus in August  

    Brazilian imports resume growth but remain at low levels

  • GDP declined 9.7% in 2Q20  

    Result reflects the pandemic's impacts

  • Primary deficit of BRL 81.1 billion in July  

    The main challenge is to rebalance fiscal accounts

  • New loans increase and delinquency rate declines in July  

    The average interest rate and spread also decreased.

  • Pandemic monitor: the economic recovery is resuming in the U.S.  

    After a long period of stability, our indicator for the U.S. now shows an upward trend, consistent with the retreating outbreak

  • Another month of current account adjustment  

    July marks the fourth consecutive monthly current account surplus.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.23% in August and 2.28% yoy  

    Deflation in education prices helped to decrease the monthly gain.

  • Pandemic monitor: cases increase in Europe, but deaths don’t  

    ..

  • Itaú monthly GDP expands 3.3% mom/sa in June  

    Breakdown shows widespread gains

  • Significant recovery in retail sales in June  

    Core retail sales return to pre-crisis level

  • Coronavirus monitor: India becomes the epicenter of new cases  

    In Brazil, the number of new cases has decreased slightly at the margin, while new deaths remain broadly stable

  • Copom Minutes: stable rates in the baseline scenario  

    The Copom minutes reinforce the perception that the authorities will not move in the next policy meeting

  • IPCA rises 0.36% in July and 2.31% yoy  

    July’s IPCA close to estimates. Underlying service inflation remains on a declining trend.

  • Unemployment rate in line with expectations in June  

    Falling participation rate prevents steeper increase in unemployment rate.

  • Coronavirus monitor: global new cases have interrupted a long sequence of increases  

    With improvement in the U.S. and some stability in Brazil, global new cases interrupted (maybe temporarily) their upward trend

  • Copom: fiscally dependent  

    The text does not formally close the door to additional easing, but indicates that, if any, it will be even more gradual than today’s move.

  • Recovering industrial production  

    Widespread growth

  • $8.1 billion trade surplus in July  

    the decline in economic activity continues to yield strong trade surpluses

  • Primary deficit of BRL 188.7 billion in June  

    Fiscal deterioration, amid a pandemic

  • Households lead growth in non-earmarked loans in June  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.0% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Coronavirus monitor: spike in Brazil may be caused by data adjustments  

    The state of São Paulo found problems that may also have distorted the data of other locations

  • Fourth consecutive monthly surplus in the current account  

    Lower pressure on the service and income deficit yields fourth consecutive current account surplus

  • Copom Cockpit: a 25-bp cut  

    Despite the already low level, the additional Selic rate cut would be mainly driven by recent inflation data, which was lower than expected

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.30% in July and 2.13% yoy  

    Weaker-than-expected IPCA-15 in July. Inflation dynamics remain benign.

  • Coronavirus monitor: new cases retreat in Brazil  

    In Brazil, slower growth of cases in the smaller cities may mean that the peak is already behind.

  • Coronavirus monitor: indicators are stable in Brazil  

    Over the past days, the countries with most significant increases of new cases per capita were the U.S., South Africa, Colombia and India

  • Monthly GDP expands 2.8% mom/sa in May  

    Retail stands out positively during the month

  • IPCA rises 0.26% in June and 2.13% yoy  

    July’s IPCA inflation below expectations. Core inflation measures remain on a benign path.

  • Coronavirus monitor: the outbreak in India continues to grow  

    Brazil in maps: starting with this edition, we will feature state-level comparative maps.

  • Broad retail sales advance 19.6% mom/sa in May  

    Gains topped expectations and were widespread across sectors

  • Industrial production climbs 7.0% mom/sa in May  

    Widespread growth across sectors.

  • $7.5 billion trade surplus in June  

    We forecast a wide trade surplus this year as imports fall more sharply than exports

  • Coronavirus monitor: US back in the spotlight  

    In Brazil, cases are growing faster in smaller cities, while capitals have a less explosive curve of new cases, and declining new deaths

  • Primary deficit of BRL 131.4 billion in May  

    Fiscal accounts will deteriorate in 2020

  • Lower participation rate prevents steeper growth in unemployment rate  

    Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.6% in May

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in May, dragged by corporate loans  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: new scenario revision  

    The QIR shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the maintenance of the Selic rate at a low level for a prolonged period.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.02% in June and 1.92% yoy  

    IPCA-15 close to zero in June. Core inflation measures below expectations.

  • Another monthly surplus in the current account  

    Continuing declines in the current account deficit are expected in the coming months.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil had worse numbers at the margin  

    Data on new cases and new deaths rose again in the country, after showing some stability.

  • Copom Minutes: caution ahead  

    The Copom minutes reinforce the perception that the authorities will not move in the next policy meeting

  • Copom: door slightly ajar to further easing, but the bar is high  

    The statement did not clearly close the door to additional easing, but its tone suggests that this is not the base case .

  • Coronavirus monitor: renewed signs of stabilization in Brazil  

    Over the last weeks, new cases and new deaths have been broadly flat in Brazil


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