Itaú BBA - Macro Brazil
  • Retail sales sustain upward trend  

    Retail sales advance in October

  • Copom Cockpit: Selic rate moving towards 4.5%  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps at next week’s meeting, to 4.5% p.a.

  • IPCA climbs 0.51% in November and 3.27% year-over-year  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps at next week’s meeting, to 4.5% p.a.

  • Industrial production climbs 0.8% in October  

    Manufacturing accelerates at the margin

  • GDP expands 0.6% in 3Q19  

    Data reinforce a gradual pickup in economic activity.

  • Data revision yields higher trade surplus  

    The significant revision in exports shows a still-high trade surplus, albeit lower than in 2018

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment remains stable at 12.0%  

    The underemployment rate continues to recede, standing now at 24.1% with seasonal adjustment.

  • Primary surplus of BRL 9.4 billion in October  

    Accumulated over 12 months, the consolidated primary deficit remained at 1.3% of GDP.

  • New loans decline in October  

    The average spread and interest rate declined.

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in October  

    Wider-than-expected current account deficit in October. Due to the revision of external sector statistics, the CAD reached 3.0% of GDP.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.14% in November and 2.67% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.14% in November. Core inflation measures remain subdued

  • Solid retail sales growth in September  

    Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending

  • Monthly GDP expands 0.3% mom/sa in September  

    PM-Itaú climbed 0.6% in 3Q19

  • IPCA rises 0.10% in October and reaches 2.54% year-over-year  

    12 month IPCA inflation reaches 2.54% in October

  • Copom minutes: Caution at this stage  

    The document reinforced the expectation of an additional 50-bp cut at December’s meeting, but indicated caution going forward.

  • Industrial production weaker than expectations  

    The item "printing and copies" stood out by falling 28.6% mom/sa.

  • $1.2 billion trade surplus in October  

    October figures reinforce the weakening trade surplus in the second half of 2019

  • Primary deficit of BRL 20.5 billion reais in September  

    2019 primary result should be better than the target

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment remains stable at 12.0%  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards in September

  • Copom: Steady at the helm  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, cutting the Selic rate by 50 bps, and mentioned another 50-bp rate cut ahead, in December.

  • New loans rise again in September  

    Overall delinquency was stable at 3.0% in seasonally-adjusted terms.

  • Copom Cockpit: the easing cycle continues  

    We believe the Copom will cut the Selic rate to 5.0% at its next week's meeting

  • Narrower-than-expected current account deficit in September  

    Narrower Current Account Deficit in September due to smaller Income Deficit

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in October and 2.72% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in October. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Monthly GDP expands in August  

    A second gain in monthly GDP in 3Q19

  • Retail sales weaker than expectations in August  

    Retail sales remain on an upward trend

  • IPCA falls -0.04% in September reaching 2.89% year-over-year  

    IPCA falls -0.04% in September with core inflation measures lower than expected

  • $2.3 billion trade surplus in September  

    The seasonally-adjusted annualized quarterly moving average slid to $31.1 billion from $34.7 billion in August.

  • Positive surprise in industrial production concentrated in mining/extractive  

    Recovery in mining/extraction, while manufacturing remains slow.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 13.4 billion reais in August  

    Fiscal challenges remain.

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rises to 12.0%  

    The underemployment rate reached 24.3%, matching the August 2018 reading.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: forecasts consistent with a new rate cut and maintenance next year  

    The document indicates that the Selic rate may remain at a new low of 5.0% for a lengthy period, rising only from 2021 onward.

  • New loans rise again in August  

    The deliquency rate increased slightly to 3.1%, seasonally adjusted.

  • Copom minutes: Risks limit Selic rate below the 5% level, for now  

    The minutes reinforced the likelihood of a 50-bp cut in October, but limited the indication of even lower interest rates, for now.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September and year-over-year change remains at 3.22%  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Remittance of dividends and profits pressure current account deficit in August  

    The current account posted a $4.3 billion deficit in August, which was wider than our forecast (-$3.9 bn) and market estimates (-$4.1 bn).

  • Copom: Selic rate moving towards 5%  

    The statement indicates that another 50-bp “adjustment” of the base rate is likely in the October meeting.

  • Monthly GDP advances in July  

    Monthly GDP goes up in early 3Q19

  • Copom Cockpit: Another 50-bp cut on the way  

    We believe the backdrop for our scenario of a continued easing cycle has not changed significantly since the last policy decision.

  • Retail sales beat expectations in July  

    Result reinforces moderate expansion trend in consumer spending

  • IPCA rises 0.11% MoM in August and 3.43% YoY  

    The IPCA rises 0.11% in August, as expected

  • Industrial production declines in July  

    The data continue to suggest a slow pace of recovery in economic activity.

  • Trade surplus weakens in 3Q19  

    Trade surplus weakens due to the slowdown in global activity

  • Primary deficit of BRL 2.8 billion in July  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment recedes to 11.8%  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market with falling employment  

    The uninspiring labor market dynamics amid pessimistic consumer sentiment mean private consumption would moderate ahead.

  • GDP expands 0.4% in 2Q19  

    Construction sector performance was a positive highlight, increasing 1.9%.

  • New loans increase in July  

    Overall delinquency went up slightly by 0.1 p.p. to 3.1%.

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in July  

    Profit and dividend remittances and a weaker trade balance lead to a wider current account deficit in July.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.08% MoM in August and 3.22% YoY  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.08% in August. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Monthly GDP declines in June, but expands 0.5% in 2Q19  

    Result reinforces perception of weak economic activity

  • IPCA recedes to 3.22% in July  

    IPCA recedes to 3.22% in July. Core measures at comfortable levels

  • Retail sales disappoint market estimates in June  

    Consumption remains in a moderate recovery trend.

  • Copom minutes: Still pointing to a 50-bp cut in September  

    The minutes indicate another 50bps cut in September and we expect a Selic rate to reach 5.0% by the end of 2019

  • Stronger imports yield weaker trade surplus in July  

    Stronger imports yield weaker-than-expected trade surplus in July

  • Industrial production declines in June  

    Weakness in investment-related components

  • Unemployment rate stable at 11.9% seasonally-adjusted in June  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards

  • Copom: 50-bp cut, signaling another 50-bp adjustment ahead  

    The Copom reduced the interest rate by 0.50 pp and signaled an additional adjustment of the same magnitude at the next meeting.

  • Primary deficit of 12.7 billion reais in June  

    Reforms are essential to fiscal rebalancing

  • New non-earmarked loans rise again in June  

    New earmarked loans retreated 0.4%.

  • Copom Cockpit: 50bp-cut on the way  

    We expect the Copom to start a new easing cycle with a 50bps cut on July 31st

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in June  

    Larger-than-anticipated profit and dividend remittances were behind pressured the primary income balance in June

  • IPCA-15 moves 0.09% in July and year-over-year change recedes to 3.27%  

    IPCA- 15 July rises 0.09%, below expectations. Core measures on a benign trajectory.

  • Monthly GDP expands in May  

    Result is consistent with weak growth in 2Q19

  • Retail sales suggest moderate consumption growth in 2Q19  

    Broad retail sales (which include vehicles and construction material) advanced 0.2% mom/sa in May.

  • IPCA year-over-year change slides to 3.37%  

    IPCA is virtually unchanged in June. Food, electricity and auto fuels posted a deflation during the month.

  • Industrial production declines in May  

    Only 8 out of 26 activities show monthly gains

  • Exports and imports fall at the margin  

    In sum, June figures showed a lower trade balance at the margin, although the year-to-date reading remains high.

  • Primary deficit of 13 billion reais in May  

    The public sector’s net debt widened to 54.7% of GDP.

  • Unemployment rate declines in May  

    Notwithstanding the latest decline, unemployment remains high by historical standards.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: forecasts indicate new easing cycle in 2019  

    Central bank´s forecasts indicate new easing cycle in 2019.

  • New loans advance in May  

    Overall delinquency remained virtually unchanged at 2.9%, seasonally adjusted

  • COPOM Minutes: easing ahead, probably  

    The minutes reinforce our call that the Copom will resume easing in July, conditional on concrete progress in the reform front.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.06% in June and year-over-year change recedes to 3.84%  

    Deflation in food prices took the spotlight, with price drops for food consumed at home (-0.82%) and away from home (-0.33%).

  • Current account posts $664 million surplus in May  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit remains at a historically low level: 0.7% of GDP.

  • Copom: ready to resume easing, conditional on reform  

    The statement opens the way for a resumption of monetary easing, provided there is “concrete progress” in the reform agenda.

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in June  

    Conditional on the pension reform approval, we now expect a decline in the Selic benchmark interest rate to 5.0% in 2019 and 2020.

  • Monthly GDP expands in April  

    For May, we expect, for the time being, PM-Itaú to remain stable.

  • Retail sales weaker than expectations in April  

    Retail sales quarterly growth is slowing down.

  • IPCA rises 0.13% in May and year-over-year change reaches 4.66%  

    IPCA rises 0.13% in May reinforcing a benign inflation scenario

  • Industrial production grows in April, despite decline in mining output  

    Manufacturing is on a moderate recovery trend year-to-date.

  • $6.4 billion trade surplus in May  

    Stronger exports and imports in May. Trade surplus reaches $ 6.4 billion.

  • Still-high unemployment rate  

    Seasonally-adjusted unemployment declined 0.1 p.p. to 11.9%.

  • Primary surplus of 6.6 billion reais in April  

    April’s result is a seasonally surplus

  • GDP shrinks 0.2% in 1Q19  

    For 2Q19, our preliminary forecast is a modest GDP growth of 0.1% qoq/sa

  • Non-earmarked loans decline in April, dragged by corporate credit  

    Seasonally-adjusted delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts $62 million deficit in April  

    Seasonally-adjusted delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts $62 million deficit in April  

    Current account posts $62 million deficit in April and disappoints market expectations

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.35% in May and year-over-year change peaks at 4.93%  

    IPCA-15 climbs 0.35% in May. Deflation in prices for food consumed at home stood out, while auto fuels put pressured the index

  • COPOM Minutes: Selic rate still at comfortable level  

    The minutes suggest the Copom is still comfortable with the level of the Selic rate, but we expect the BCB to cut rates again in September.

  • Monthly GDP declines in March  

    The result reinforces our call for a contraction of GDP in 1Q19.

  • IPCA climbs 0.57% in April and year-over-year change peaks at 4.94%  

    Headline inflation accelerated on an annual basis pressured by food and fuels; but should begin a downward path from now on

  • Retail sales expand in March  

    Report reinforces scenario of a slight increase in consumer spending in 1Q19

  • Copom: acknowledging a weaker economy, but no imminent reaction  

    The post-meeting statement suggests that the authorities are less sanguine on the state of economic recovery

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in May  

    The Selic rate will likely be kept at 6.5% p.a. in May´s Copom meeting

  • Broad-based decline in industrial production  

    Result reinforces weakening trend in the industrial sector

  • $6.1 billion trade surplus in April  

    Trade surplus remains at historically-high figures

  • Primary deficit of R$ 18.6 billion in March  

    Fiscal challenges remain significant

  • Unemployment recedes in March  

    Employment advanced in the quarter

  • New non-earmarked loans continue to expand in March  

    Seasonally-adjusted delinquency remained virtually flat at 3.0%.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.72% in April, while core measures continue to show a benign trajectory  

    IPCA-15 climbs 0.72% in April, while core measures continue to show a benign trajectory

  • $494 million current account deficit in March  

    Current account deficit at historically low levels

  • Monthly GDP stable in February  

    Domestic demand components receded during the month

  • IPCA climbed 0.75% in March and 1.51% in 1Q19  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.75% in March, food consumed at home is behind the surprise.

  • Retail sales remained stable in February  

    Result reinforces assessment of weakness in 1Q19

  • Copom: symmetric risks, no rush to act  

    The Copom decided to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 6.5% pa, as widely expected, and now sees the balance of risks as symmetric.

  • Copom Cockpit: Central bank under new leadership, but Selic rate is set to remain stable  

    Copom should keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% pa and be cautious about the balance of risks to inflation

  • Monthly GDP is stable in January  

    Mixed data

  • Retail sales climb 0.4% in January  

    Normalization after Black Friday effects

  • Industrial production slides 0.8% in January  

    The result reinforces the perception of weak economic growth in early 2019

  • IPCA climbed 0.43% in February, close to our estimate  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in March is a 0.51% increase

  • Seasonal primary surplus in January  

    January result has favorable seasonality

  • $3.7 billion trade surplus in February  

    The trade surplus reached a $ 3.7 surplus in February and the trade surplus remains at a high level.

  • GDP expands 0.1% in 4Q18 and 1.1% in 2018  

    The reading reinforces the perception of weak growth in late 2018.

  • Higher-than-expected unemployment in January  

    Unemployment drops only 0.1 p.p. over 12 months amid weak economic growth

  • New loans decline in January  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 2.9%

  • $6.5 billion current account deficit in January  

    Smaller trade surplus drives current account deficit to $6.5 billion in January

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.34% in February, close to the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February is a 0.38% increase

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian pension reform proposal confirms expectations  

    The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions

  • Monthly GDP retreats in December  

    Losses in 9 out of 13 monthly GDP components

  • Retail sales recede in December, driven by payback of Black Friday effects and decline in vehicle sa  

    Result below expectations

  • COPOM Minutes: economic activity still consistent with base case  

    The minutes reinforce the case for stable Selic rate at the 6.5% in coming meetings, barring any significant shocks.

  • IPCA rises 0.32% in January, printing below estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.28% increase

  • Copom: a last (hawkish) salvo  

    The Copom decision came in as expected, but the message was more hawkish than we had anticipated.

  • Industrial production climbs 0.2% in December and 1.1% in 2018  

    The data breakdown indicates that the underlying growth is worse than the headline.

  • Trade surplus of $2.2 billion in January  

    January figures point to a slight moderation in the trade balance, but the trade surplus remains at a historically high level

  • Unemployment increases in 4Q18  

    The result suggests that the output gap opened again during that quarter

  • Copom Cockpit: conditional stability  

    We believe that the Copom will keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a. at the February meeting.

  • Primary deficit of 108 billion reais (1.6% of GDP) in 2018  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • New non-earmarked loans climb again in December  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually flat at 3.0%

  • Current account deficit of 0.8% of GDP in 2018  

    Smaller trade surplus drove current account deficit to 0.8% of GDP in 2018

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.30% in January, somewhat below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in January is a 0.40% increase

  • Monthly GDP expands in November  

    Household spending climbed while investment fell in November

  • Retail sales beat expectations in November, driven by Black Friday  

    We forecast sales to decline in December, as the temporary boost from Black Friday fades

  • IPCA ends 2018 with a 3.75% increase  

    For January, our preliminary estimate for the IPCA is a 0.42% increase

  • Disappointing industrial production in November  

    Our preliminary estimate for December is a hike of 1.2% at the margin

  • $58 billion trade surplus in 2018  

    The trade balance posted a strong surplus for a fourth consecutive year.

  • Primary deficit of 15.6 billion reais in November  

    2018 Primary result should be much better than the target

  • Stable unemployment in November  

    Real wage bill expanded due to slightly higher employment

  • Households lead increase in new non-earmarked loans in November  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually flat at 3.0%.

  • IPCA-15 posts 0.16% deflation in December and ends 2018 with a 3.86% increase  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in December is a 0.18% increase, ending the year at 3.78%

  • Lower-than-expected income deficit leads to narrower current account deficit in November  

    Current account deficit remains at a historically-low level

  • Inflation Report: Forecasts point to stable Selic rate in 2019  

    Central Bank's forecasts are consistent with stable Selic rate at the current level of 6.5% pa throughout 2019

  • Monthly GDP expands in October  

    Investment and consumption remained stable during the month

  • Copom: low for long reinforced  

    The statement brought important changes, all on the benign side for prospective inflation

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in December  

    Brazil´s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets again next week and we expect it will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a.

  • IPCA has 0.21% deflation in November, printing below the lowest of market estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in December is a 0.17% increase

  • Industrial production rises 0.2% in October  

    Weakness still reflects tighter financial conditions in 3Q18

  • Stronger trade surplus at the margin  

    November figures suggest a stronger trade balance in 4Q18, led by exports of basic items

  • Primary surplus of 7.8 billion reais in October  

    Short-term fiscal results are improving

  • GDP expands 0.8% in 3Q18  

    The result was distorted by the direct effects of the truckers’ stoppages in 2Q18.

  • Unemployment is virtually unchanged in October  

    Formal jobs hasn't shown an improvement yet

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in October, but upward trend continues  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency decreased 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts a $329 million surplus in October  

    Despite the weaker than expected reading, the current account deficit receded at the margin.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.19% and prints below expectations in November  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in November is a drop of 0.05%

  • Monthly GDP declines in September  

    Consumption declined in September, but investment expanded

  • Retail sales fall in September  

    Weak result may reflect a normalization after a month benefited by withdrawals from accounts held under PIS/PASEP programs.

  • IPCA rose 0.45% in October, below the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in November is a 0.05% move

  • COPOM Minutes: Steady rates for long  

    Forecasts in line with the targeted path suggest rates may be on course to hibernate for quite some time

  • $6.1 billion trade surplus in October  

    October figures showed a wider trade surplus at the margin.

  • Industrial production declines in September  

    Widespread decline in September

  • Copom: less asymmetric risks  

    The statement brings few but relevant changes, noting that risks have become less asymmetric

  • Gains in informal jobs push unemployment down  

    No noticeable improvement in formal employment yet

  • Primary deficit of 24.6 billion reais in September  

    Fiscal result for the year should be better than the target

  • New non-earmarked loans increase in September  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 3.0%. Average interest rates and spreads declined.

  • $32 million current account surplus in September  

    The current account deficit narrowed at the margin in September, but remains stable at 0.8% of GDP over 12 months

  • Copom Cockpit: Selic stable in October amid more balanced risks for inflation  

    We believe that Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a. at the October meeting

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.58% in October, printing below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in October is a 0.55% increase

  • Monthly GDP expands in August  

    Gains in 7 out of 13 monthly GDP components

  • Retail sales increase in August  

    Better-than-expected readings

  • IPCA climbed 0.48% in September, slightly above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in October is a 0.53% increase

  • Falling oil production is behind the decline in industrial production in August  

    A lower than expected result

  • $5.0 billion trade surplus in September  

    September figures showed some increase in the trade surplus at the margin.

  • Primary deficit of 16.9 billion reais in August  

    Short-term fiscal results are better than expected

  • Informal jobs prompt drop in unemployment  

    The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell 0.1 p.p. to 12.2% in the quarter ended in August

  • Inflation Report: close call  

    Copom´s inflation forecasts indicate that the Selic rate can be kept constant in the coming meetings.

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked corporate loans decreases again  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.2% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment

  • COPOM Minutes: ready to act  

    Faced with a balance of risks that is tilted towards higher inflation, the Copom stands ready to act.

  • Current account deficit: Stability at the margin  

    The current account deficit was stable at the margin last month, but wider than in 2017

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, below the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.46% increase

  • Copom: stable rates, for now  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa

  • Monthly GDP expands in July  

    Headline reading is stronger than diffusion indicated

  • Retail sales decline in July  

    First year-over-year drop in 16 months

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic in September amid growing uncertainties  

    We believe that the current situation is still consistent with a stable Selic rate at 6.5% in the next meeting

  • IPCA shows deflation in August (-0.09%)  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.40% increase

  • COLOMBIA – Stable inflation in August  

    Stable inflation amid a gradual activity recovery, will justify stable rates for the time being.

  • Industrial production falls 0.2% in July  

    Output remains above pre-stoppages levels

  • $3.8 billion trade surplus in August  

    August trade surplus figures showed moderation at the margin

  • GDP rises 0.2% in 2Q18 as underlying growth loses momentum  

    Growth negatively affected by the truckers’ stoppages in May

  • Primary deficit of 3.4 billion reais in July  

    Short-term data improve

  • Unemployment recedes to 12.3% in July  

    Employment advanced 0.3% qoq after consecutive declines in recent months

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked corporate loans plummets in July  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.5% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment.

  • Current account deficit reaches $4.4 billion in July  

    The current account deficit moderated at the margin in July

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.13% in August, slightly above the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in August is -0.02%

  • Normalization in monthly GDP in June  

    1.4% growth in June

  • No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in retail sales in June  

    Auto and construction material recovered, but supermarket and fuel sales recede further

  • IPCA rose 0.33% in July, above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in August is a 0.03% move

  • COPOM Minutes: Selic rate to remain stable in September, in the absence of new shocks  

    Copom minutes signal stable policy rate at 6.50% in its next meeting.

  • Industrial production goes back to normal in June  

    Industrial production soared 13.1% mom/sa

  • Copom: two way risks, but no move for the time being  

    The Copom took the universally expected decision, leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.50% pa, without a bias, in an unanimous vote


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