Itaú BBA - Wait-and-see mode

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Wait-and-see mode

April 26, 2019

Most sectors still wait for the fog and uncertainty about the economy to recede before resuming plans.


For the version with all texts, please open the attached pdf file
 

With information through April 25, 2019

This report summarizes anecdotal information on current economic conditions received from key contacts, economists, market experts and other sources outside Itaú. Apart from the 'our view' section, it does not necessarily reflect views of Itaú's Macroeconomic Research team.

Contents:

Consumption and production of goods and services
After a widespread increase in confidence, some retailers report concern about the decline seen in early 2019.

Investment
Decision makers wait for more clarity ahead.

Real estate
Vacancy levels continue to recede.

Agricultural sector
Corn’s second crop and the African swine fever in China are good omens for the protein sector.

Our View
Economic activity has started the year in a slow pace – and data at the margin show that this trend will likely extend over the coming months. As a result, we revised our 2019 growth forecast to 1.3%. Conditional to the approval of the pension reform, we now expect rate cuts, taking the Selic rate to the level of 5.5%.

 

For the version with all texts, please open the attached pdf file



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