Non-traditional risks are unlikely scenarios but would have major repercussions.
Now is not the time to sanction market euphoria.
Tax revenues are a problem because they depend on wages that are slower than GDP to recover.
In Brazil, almost anything could be qualified as a surprise, since no scenario seems plausible
Restoring confidence is the key factor for economic recovery. This will only be possible when the political/fiscal knot is untied.
Is the solution to accept a primary deficit? Definitely not.
It has become clear that it is not feasible to maintain such inefficient cost structures in a world that is very different.
The implementation of the adjustments will remove a major obstacle, but will not be enough on its own to restore confidence.
Previous cycles are gone, there is a need to offer new sources of growth in LA
While adjustments are saving Brazil from falling off the cliff, the misadjustments of the past still weigh on the economy
The government needs to stick to the adjustments. Otherwise, the word “crisis” will return to the table
The year began with hefty challenges for the Brazilian economy.
The beginning of 2014 came with a warning that sounded like flight instructions: fasten your belts as the year is about to start.
Little is expected from 2014. That’s not so bad. The advantage is that positive news will have more impact than negative news
They say the exchange rate was invented to keep us humble.
In Brazil and around the globe, the feeling is in fact one of transition between long economic cycles
Two years of weak growth shows clearly that Brazil needs to rebalance its economy.
Will it work? If by “work” we mean that the economy will grow faster than the latest GDP reading, the answer is yes.
There is evidence that traditional measures of economic performance, such as GDP and consumption, do not reflect the evolution of well-being in a society.