Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – Spontaneous votes and their implications

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Weekly Elections Monitor – Spontaneous votes and their implications

September 5, 2018

How do spontaneous votes change over the election period?

(full report attached)
 

Special comment: The "floor" of a candidate’s voting percentage in the elections can be obtained through the spontaneous vote polls, as this is the level obtained even when poll respondents are not shown options. But how do spontaneous votes change over the election period? In our analysis, we find that spontaneous voting intentions rarely recede throughout the campaign, and, in most cases, maintain further growth.

The Ibope poll expected to be released on Tuesday (04) was suspended, and Datafolha canceled the poll that would be released tomorrow, given the recent decision by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) to bar former president Lula from the election. Ibope is still waiting for the TSE´s permission to release the scenario without Lula results. In addition, Ibope and Datafolha will conduct new polls, to be released from Monday onwards.

In social media, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and João Amoêdo (NOVO) continue to show the highest growth in the number of followers.

 



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