Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection rates by Ibope and Datafolha converge

Macro Vision

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Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection rates by Ibope and Datafolha converge

July 17, 2018

Due to a methodological change the uncertainty about the level of each pre-candidate's rejection rate was reduced.

(full report attached)

Historically, rejection rates of the various candidates measured by Ibope and Datafolha differed substantially, with systematically higher numbers on Ibope poll. Due to a methodological change, this difference was eliminated in the latest Ibope poll, reducing uncertainty about the level of each pre-candidate's rejection rate.

Monitor of economic policy signs: Paulo Guedes, Jair Bolsonaro's (PSL) economic advisor, indicated that he could maintain part of the current economic team, praising Mansueto Almeida (current treasury secretary) and Ilan Goldfajn (current BCB president).

In social media, pre-candidates Álvaro Dias (PODE), Marina Silva (REDE) and, to a lesser extent, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), lost followers last week after a Twitter effort to exclude robots and inactive profiles.

The Instituto Paraná Pesquisas will publish a presidential voting intention poll carried out in São Paulo, as of Wednesday (July 18), and in Rio de Janeiro as of Friday (July 20). Also on Friday (20), the party convention period begins. We included a table of the parties' convention dates already anounced.

 



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