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Weekly Elections Monitor – Is it too early to analyze second round polls?

October 2, 2018

It is a recurring argument that it’s too early to analyze second-round scenarios. What do the past elections say?

(full report attached)

The voting intention polls continue to point to a runoff between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). Latest Ibope’s second-round simulations show a tie between both candidates, while the Datafolha poll shows Haddad 6 pp ahead of Bolsonaro in the dispute.

Special comment: The argument that it is too early to analyze second round scenarios is recurrent, as the outcome of the election may be different from the polls conducted at this point in time. We analyzed polls from past elections and observed that, since 1989, second-round polls conducted at least 2 months prior to the first round were almost always successful in pointing the winner of the election, which reinforce the importance of analyzing the runoffs scenarios in this election.

In social media, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and João Amoêdo (NOVO) continue to show the highest growth in the number of followers. 



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