Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – High percentage of blank/null and undecided voters in the CNT/MDA poll

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Weekly Elections Monitor – High percentage of blank/null and undecided voters in the CNT/MDA poll

May 15, 2018

In the scenario without Lula, none of the main candidates improved after Joaquim Barbosa’s withdrawal.

(full report attached)
 

The CNT/MDA poll on voting intentions showed, in the scenario without Lula (PT), a high percentage of blank/null and undecided votes (46%). None of the main candidates advanced after the withdrawal of Joaquim Barbosa (PSB) from the race.

The regional poll carried out in Rio de Janeiro (Paraná Pesquisas) showed Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) still as front runner, but relatively stable compared to the July 2017 poll.

According to the latest Datafolha poll (released on April 15), Joaquim Barbosa's voting intentions were higher among men in the Southeast and Midwest regions, with higher education and income above 5 minimum wages. These characteristics are similar to those found in Bolsonaro's voters, and different from those characterizing Marina Silva’s and Lula’s voters.

In social media, growth in the number of Jair Bolsonaro's followers continued to decelerate. On Twitter, the "security" theme led the mentions, while the "corruption" theme lost momentum and "social development" rose slightly.

Local news continued to focus on possible alliances between parties and candidates. Lula sent a letter to PT defending his own candidacy. CSN’s Benjamin Steinbruch was mentioned as a possible vice-president for Ciro Gomes (PDT).



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