Itaú BBA - Headed to round of 16: updating our predictions

Macro Vision

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Headed to round of 16: updating our predictions

June 29, 2018

Updating our model, we estimate Brazil has a 36% chance of taking the cup home, followed by England and Belgium, both at 10%.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

In our previous report, we mentioned the famous saying: "football is a box of surprises". Once again, it turned out to be true. Some of the favorites for the tournament went through serious scares in the group stage and Germany was sent home.

Looking ahead, we updated our model and calculated each team’s probability of winning the tournament. Brazil comes out of our simulation with the highest probability of victory, 36%, followed by England and Belgium, both at 10%.
 

Pedro Renault

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 



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