Itaú BBA - Macro Vision
  • Brazil: Are lower interest rates the new normal?  

    We estimate a real neutral interest rate of 2.5% to 3%.

  • A contribution to the debate on international reserves  

    International reserves serve as insurance, but keeping them entails costs, so there is a debate about their appropriate level.

  • Brazil Macro Visual_November 2018  

    We changed our GDP, inflation, exchange rate and interest rate forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – The challenges ahead of the new president  

    We summarized the possible economic agenda for the next government, as well as the number of Congressmen needed for each change

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – The proposals of the next president  

    We updated the main proposals of the candidates, based on official texts of the parties, recent interviews and statements of advisors

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – An overview of state government elections  

    We detail the results of the first round and the second round polls, when available, for the elections of each Brazilian state

  • Brazil Macro Visual_October2018  

    We revisited our inflation forecasts for 2018 and 2019; tax collection up, despite weak activity; real accumulating gains in the month

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – What to expect for the second round?  

    We calculated the transfer rate from other candidates needed for Haddad and Bolsonaro to win in the second round

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Is it too early to analyze second round polls?  

    It is a recurring argument that it’s too early to analyze second-round scenarios. What do the past elections say?

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection and first-round percentage of votes help predicting the runoff  

    First-round votes and rejection rates help predict the outcome of the second-round.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – A further look into the increase of Bolsonaro and Haddad’s voting intenti  

    We analyzed the profile of the voters that led Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad’s advance of voting intentions in recent polls. See below.

  • Brazil Macro Visual - September 2018  

    Weaker than expected GDP, but tax collection decouples from activity; BRL accumulating huge depreciation in the last couple of months

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Some color on the blanks, nulls and undecided  

    Which candidates have the greatest potential to absorb the huge contingent of blank, nulls and undecided votes?

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Spontaneous votes and their implications  

    How do spontaneous votes change over the election period?

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – The Brazilian electorate swing  

    If PT decides to replace Lula as its candidate to presidency, will his eventual substitute be able to catch up on time?

  • The crisis in Turkey and its impact on Latin America  

    Turkish economy to decelerate without policy change, but limited effects on EM

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – What are the economic proposals of the presidential candidates?  

    We’ve prepared a table summarizing the main proposals

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – How do voting intentions evolve in the presidential race final run?  

    We’ve analyzed how voting intentions evolved over the past elections, from five weeks before the first round until the election day

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – How will TV campaigns work in this year’s election?  

    CNI / Ibope poll shows that 62% of respondents will use television to obtain information about candidates

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Economist linked to PT questions effectiveness of pension reform  

    He affirmed that it is inaccurate to say that the pension reform would solve the fiscal problem

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – “Big-center” approaches alliance with Alckmin  

    According to the media, members of the "big-center" parties communicated in the past few days their intention to support Geraldo Alckmin

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection rates by Ibope and Datafolha converge  

    Due to a methodological change the uncertainty about the level of each pre-candidate's rejection rate was reduced.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Who will get the support from the “big-center“ parties?  

    This is an important decision, because the big-center parties will have around 18% of the time available for TV and radio campaign

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Ibope indicates a high percentage of blank, null and undecided voters  

    The Ibope poll a higher percentage of blank, null and undecided voters than in previous polls conducted by other institutes

  • Headed to round of 16: updating our predictions  

    Updating our model, we estimate Brazil has a 36% chance of taking the cup home, followed by England and Belgium, both at 10%.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Bolsonaro's (PSL) advisor defends a pension capitalization regime  

    Paulo Guedes defended the adoption of a new pension capitalization regime and a reform of the state.

  • How undefined is 2018’s presidential election result?  

    We built an electoral undefinition index and verified that the 2018 election is, thus far, the most uncertain since 1989.

  • At what level will the BRL stabilize?  

    In the long run, the exchange rate depends on the amount of foreign funds available to finance the current account deficit.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Marina Silva's (REDE) advisors defend fiscal effort, but are against the  

    They emphasized that fiscal correction is urgent, but believe the spending cap is excessive.

  • 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™: Who has the greatest chances of winning?  

    Brazil has the higher changes of winning, followed by Germany and Argentina.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – How is the main candidates’ regional performance?  

    The main candidates have lower voting intentions today than in past elections in most states

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflation continues surprising to the downside in LatAm  

    The main downward contributions in the month came from the price dynamics in Brazil and Mexico

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Brazil drives negative surprise in LatAm  

    Brazil’s component weakened once again

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Advisor to Ciro Gomes (PDT) details economic proposals  

    Our monitor of economic policy signs highlights the proposals presented by Mauro Benevides Filho

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions for Latin America deteriorate in May  

    Financial conditions of the region as a whole deteriorated in the month

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Who were the blank, null and undecided voters in 2014?  

    In 2014, votes for blanks/nulls/undecided were from people with a different profile than today’s blanks/nulls/undecided

  • What’s next for monetary policy in Brazil?  

    As long as uncertainties prevail, the central bank will likely keep the Selic benchmark rate stable at the current level

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Who are the blank/null and undecided voters?  

    Blank and null voters are mainly women, from the Northeast region, with basic education, low income and over 35 years of age

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – High percentage of blank/null and undecided voters in the CNT/MDA poll  

    In the scenario without Lula, none of the main candidates improved after Joaquim Barbosa’s withdrawal.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Joaquim Barbosa (PSB) announces that he does not intend to be a candidate  

    This is the second edition of our weekly report on the 2018 elections.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Negative surprises in April  

    The Itaú Activity Surprise Index declined to -0.24 in April (from 0.08 in March)

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflation surprises to the downside in Latin America  

    The main downward contributions in the month came from the price dynamics in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions improve for LatAm in April  

    Financial conditions in the region as a whole posted an improvement in the month

  • Weekly Elections Monitor: Introducing our weekly report on the elections  

    We are launching today a new weekly report, focused on the 2018 elections

  • Brazil 2018 Elections Guide  

    Elections remain without a clear favorite for the presidential race

  • What’s behind the recent underperformance of the BRL?  

    We examined whether the narrower the interest rate differential, the bigger the impact of a change in the Selic on the BRL.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Balanced surprises in Brazil  

    The Brazilian subindex moved sideways, as inflation releases came virtually in line with analysts’ expectations.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Positive surprises, albeit moderate  

    A batch of stronger than expected activity releases in Mexico pushed the subindex higher.

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions deteriorate in March  

    Financial conditions in the region as a whole deteriorated at the margin

  • Itaú Activity Index for Brazilian States  

    Results point to a heterogeneous recovery so far

  • Central Bank: questions of autonomy and the mandate  

    The discussion of central bank autonomy is not new in Brazil, but it has resurfaced in recent months

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Balanced surprises in February  

    The index decreased to 0.02 in February and now is at neutral level

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Surprises remain balanced in February  

    The Brazilian index showed slight changes and continues on positive territory

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions deteriorate on global headwinds  

    Financial conditions in the region deteriorated at the margin, reflecting the global risk-off event of early February

  • NAFTA 2.0: Compromise within reach  

    We see progress on dispute settlement and rules of origin, the two most controversial issues

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Positive, at last  

    The index registered the first positive figure since July 2016.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Balanced surprises in January  

    The Brazilian index turned positive, as virtually all releases published in January came on the stronger side of expectations.

  • Brazil: Datafolha's Electoral Poll  

    In this report, we present the breakdown of Datafolha’s electoral poll results

  • Market Conditions Index - Significant improvement in market conditions in January  

    Widespread global growth with low volatility contributed to the improvement in the financial conditions index.

  • Brazil 2018 Elections Guide  

    Our Brazil 2018 Elections Guide encompass a series of charts and analysis based on recent polls and the current election framework.

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    Favorable global environment, recovery is becoming more widespread in Brazil

  • Investment resumes advance in November  

    We outline a gross fixed capital formation monthly series

  • What will drive Brazil’s wider current-account deficit in the coming years?  

    Even with an economic recovery, the current-account deficit will remain at still-moderate level.

  • How did current account adjustment take place in emerging market countries?  

    Contracting activity is meaningful to explain current account adjustment in Brazil, Peru, South Africa, Turkey and Russia.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Negative surprises all across LatAm  

    The surprise index fell in December to the lowest reading since July 2012.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Rising, but still negative  

    Overall, surprise indexes for most countries turned less negative in the last month of 2017.

  • Market Conditions Index - Slight improvement in Brazil’s market conditions in December  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions climbed to 0.23 in December from 0.15 in the previous month

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    Central bank data shows that corporate loans are starting to recover

  • New Industrial Production Heat Map: Warming Up  

    New methodology, similar result: industry is warming up

  • What to expect for the 4Q17 Inflation Report  

    In the market scenario, we anticipate inflation at 2.8% for 2017 and 4.2% for 2018 and 2019.

  • Revision of Itaú Unibanco’s Monthly GDP series; decline in October  

    The revised series include activity segments that were not covered by the original index.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Downside surprises in Mexico amid natural hazards  

    The impact of the natural hazards (hurricanes and earthquakes) over activity, albeit temporary, was widespread.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Brazilian inflation resumes downside surprises  

    Downside surprises in Brazil, which had been moderating in the last months, staged a comeback in November.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions deteriorate in November  

    In Brazil, the Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index dropped to 0.17 from 0.41.

  • Argentina - Facing the moderate inflation challenge  

    The Central Bank of Argentina has made progress in fighting inflation, but consumer prices continue expanding far above target.

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    The better global growth is supportive of financial conditions and is good news for EM economies.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Balanced surprises across LatAm  

    The Brazilian surprise index declined again in October, whereas Mexican data came stronger than expected.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Chilean inflation surprises to the downside  

    The Chilean index fell deeper into negative territory, driven by the lowest monthly inflation reading on record for September

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions deteriorate in October  

    In October, the Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index dropped to 0.36 from 0.54 in the previous month

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    We are pleased to present our new Brazil Macro Visual, containing a series of charts about the latest macro trends and views for the future.

  • Views From the IMF Meetings: Better Growth to Continue in Developed Markets and in Latin America  

    Our main takeaways from the IMF meetings held in Washington D.C. from October 13 to 15, 2017

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Better price dynamics in Mexico, more positive surprises in Brazi  

    The highlight was the moderation of the Mexican index, as September releases hinted at more benign inflationary pressures.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Declining, but still positive  

    The Brazil subcomponent edged down in September, as labor market releases came in-line with the market’s prospects.

  • How the TLP can impact monetary policy  

    TLP should contribute to substantially boost the Selic rate’s influence on the economy

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial variables remain at expansionary levels  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index (IU-MCI) fell to 0.72 from 0.86

  • What to expect for the 3Q17 Inflation Report  

    We estimate declines in the inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2018.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Upward surprises in Mexico, mixed releases in Brazil  

    After four consecutive months of declines, the Brazilian surprise indicator increased in August.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Widespread positive surprises in Brazil  

    The Brazilian component was the only one to improve in August

  • Market Conditions Index - More expansionary financial conditions  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index advanced to 0.83 in August from 0.81.

  • Reforms could bring Brazil’s potential GDP to 3.5%  

    Without adjustments, potential GDP would be closer to 1.5%.

  • Argentina: Time for fiscal consolidation  

    Without meaningful reforms, we do not expect the 2018 target to be met

  • FAQs: Brazil’s political reform  

    Proposals must be sanctioned by October 7 in order to be effective in the next elections

  • We raised our 2Q17 GDP forecast from -0.2% to 0.0%  

    The increase is a consequence of stronger data in June.

  • Labor reform: Potential impacts  

    The recently-approved labor reform can help to boost productivity, and supply and demand for workers.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downside surprises all across LatAm  

    Brazil’s index dropped again, amid another batch of downside inflation surprises.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Firmer activity in Mexico, mixed surprises elsewhere  

    Mexico’s index turned positive, as the slowdown has proved more gradual than the market had anticipated.

  • Reshaping NAFTA  

    NAFTA will live on, with changes in favor of the U.S. but without transformational implications for Mexico

  • Market Conditions Index - More expansionary given the improvement in commodities  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index (IU-MCI) advanced to 0.36 in July from -0.31 in the previous month.

  • Unemployment approaching a peak in Brazil  

    We have revised the trajectory of the unemployment rate in our scenario

  • What is the impact of heightened uncertainty on future monetary policy steps?  

    We believe that the economic environment will continue to be disinflationary and we expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Positive surprises in Brazil, disappointing data elsewhere  

    The Itaú Activity Surprise Index retraced in June, dragged by negative surprises in Mexico, Chile and Peru.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - LatAm inflation keeps surprising to the downside  

    Inflation came below median expectations in Brazil and Peru; Mexican indexes surprised to the upside again.

  • Market Conditions Index - Brazilian financial variables decline in June  

    The movement is a product of deterioration in both commodity prices and financial variables.

  • Latin America slowdown: the role of external factors  

    The bulk of the slowdown in Latin American can be attributed to a less supportive external scenario

  • What to expect for the 2Q17 Inflation Report  

    The IR may signal the need to reduce the uncertainty and the scope of possibilities on the future course of monetary policy.

  • Country risk: how far can it reach?  

    Maintaining the Brazilian risk at lower levels requires the continuity of the reforms and a benign international scenario.

  • ECB: The tricky road to monetary policy normalization  

    A simultaneous exit is the safest approach to address idiosyncratic differences amongst Eurozone countries

  • Market Conditions Index - Volatility strikes Brazilian financial variables in May  

    The Brazilian financial variables subcomponent deteriorated, presenting volatility in face of political uncertainty.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Broad disinflation in Brazil, upward surprises in Mexico  

    In Brazil, the general price indices (IGPs) registered deeper-than-expected monthly deflation.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Widespread improvement in activity surprises  

    Our proprietary Itaú Activity Surprise Index rose to 0.22 in May from 0.10 in April, led by improvements all across LatAm.

  • A closer look at Argentina’s October mid-term election  

    On October 22, Argentines will vote to renew one-third of the Senate seats and one-half of the Lower Chamber’s.

  • Brazil: less vulnerable to shocks  

    The country may count on robust buffers and is therefore less vulnerable to both internal and external shocks

  • We forecast 1Q17 GDP growth at 1.1%  

    Strong contribution from agriculture and a favorable carryover for industrial production.

  • Could the Brazilian economy grow with high unemployment?  

    It is possible to see significant economic growth without a significant recovery in the level of employment.

  • Is the Correlation Between Industrial Production and Confidence Still Valid?  

    We show a model that explains this apparent decoupling.

  • Argentina: The case for higher international reserves  

    Reserves usually end up having costs, but the benefit is that they lower liquidity risk.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions worsen in April  

    The decline owes to both a drop in commodity prices and worsening financial variables (mostly due to the former).

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downside inflation surprises are moderating  

    Brazil kept the index in the negative range, as the widespread disinflationary trend extends itself.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Data methodology changes in Brazil distort April’s result  

    Our Itaú Activity Surprise Index inched up to to 0.12 in April from 0.11 in March

  • We increased our 1Q17 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 0.5%  

    Our scenario assumes a strong contribution from agricultural production.

  • France to remain in the Eurozone even if Le Pen wins  

    Political gridlock to block attempts at na EU exit referendum

  • Social Security reform: alternative transition rules  

    Keeping a short transition to the minimum age of 65 is crucial.

  • Uncovering Latam central bank’s reaction functions  

    Taylor Rules predict more accommodative monetary conditions in the region

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Mostly downside inflation surprises  

    Leaving out Mexico, inflation data reinforce the ongoing disinflationary context.

  • Market Conditions Index - Less expansionary given the drop in commodities  

    Brazilian market conditions worsened in March, due to a drop in commodity prices.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Mixed signals amid a slow recovery  

    Due to methodology tweaks in Brazilian data, this month’s underperformance should be taken with a grain of salt.

  • Has Europopulism been stopped?  

    Europopulism in Europe might weaken ahead, but Italy’s situation requires attention.

  • What we expect for the 1Q17 Inflation Report  

    The IR should corroborate signs of intensification in the monetary easing cycle indicated by recently issued official documents.

  • When to cut the inflation target?  

    In June this year, there may be a window of opportunity to reduce the Brazilian inflation target.

  • Qual é o momento de reduzir a meta de inflação?  

    Em junho deste ano, pode estar aberta uma janela de oportunidade para reduzir a meta de inflação brasileira.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Stable surprises and slow recovery  

    Our Itaú Activity Surprise Index decreased to 0.03 in February from 0.14 in January.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - More modest downside surprises  

    Leaving out Peru, the Latin American countries covered are seeing more modest downside surprises, or even positive ones.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market Conditions remain expansionary in February  

    The IU-MCI was virtually flat in February and remained expansionary.

  • We forecast a 0.6% decline in Brazilian 4Q16 GDP  

    Fundamentals continue to suggest a recovery ahead

  • What is the fiscal position of municipalities?  

    The fiscal position of municipalities is less concerning when compared with the central government and the states.

  • Finding MXN equilibrium in more challenging conditions  

    In worst-case scenario, U.S. border tax would push the Mexican peso’s fair value to 23.1 to the dollar

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Positive surprises, but slow recovery  

    The reality suggests that activity in the region is picking up, but that a recovery will be slower than expected.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downward inflation surprises sustained  

    Following the recent trend, inflationary pressures continue to recede in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

  • Market Conditions Index - Strong improvement in January  

    The movement was driven by both Brazilian financial variables and commodity prices.

  • What if the inflation target is reduced?  

    If monetary policy is perfectly credible, a reduction in the target enables lower inflation and lower nominal interest rates.

  • Argentina: A moving yardstick  

    A national CPI should show lower inflation than the current index.

  • We revised our GDP forecast to 1.0% in 2017  

    GDP likely declined again in 4Q16

  • Ten common misconceptions about Brazil’s Pension reform (PEC 287)  

    This report aims to correct ten common misunderstandings about the proposal and about the current situation of Brazil’s Pension and Social Security systems.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downward inflation surprises persist  

    Downward inflation surprises have been common in countries where activity has also been weaker than expectations.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Uneven improvement  

    Results were mixed, but the net effect was positive.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions deteriorate further in December  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index (IU-MCI) worsened to -0.03 from 0.44 in November.

  • What we expect from the 4Q2016 Inflation Report  

    The IR will probably reinforce the monetary authority’s recent statement which, as we see it, signals a 50 bps interest rate cut at its January meeting.

  • Brazilian states in crisis: diagnosis and solutions  

    The solution for the structural crisis is by controlling spending.

  • FAQs: Social Security Reform (PEC 287)  

    The reform is necessary, given the aging of the Brazilian population.

  • We forecast GDP growth of 1.5% in 2017  

    Inventories are set to contribute positively.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflationary pressures continue to recede  

    Inflationary pressures continue to recede in most of the region’s economies.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Back to negative  

    The index continues to display volatile behaviour in the last few months.

  • Market Conditions Index - External uncertainties lead to deterioration in market conditions in Novem  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index declined to 0.44 from 0.75 in October. This deterioration was driven by external uncertainties.

  • Estimating sustainable exchange rates in Latin America  

    We have estimated the exchange rates consistent with sustainable current account deficits in the long term for Latin America

  • We forecast a 1.1% decline in Brazilian 3Q16 GDP  

    Investment probably declined again

  • Heat Map of Industrial Output  

    The heat map analysis reinforces the fact that activity has stopped retreating, but there are no clear signs of a rebound yet.

  • Trumponomics  

    Fiscal expansion will lead to tighter monetary policy by the Fed

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Brazil pulls the index further down  

    Inflationary pressures are milder in most countries the region (especially in Brazil).

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Chile leads the flock  

    A rebound from Chile was the month’s highlight, while Colombia remains at the tail-end.

  • Market Conditions Index - Another improvement in market conditions  

    The improvement was due to idiosyncratic factors in Brazil, which boosted the Brazilian financial variables subcomponent.

  • Argentina: Wage negotiations and their implications for monetary policy  

    To reach the 2017 inflation target will depend heavily on the next round of wage negotiations.

  • Is service-price disinflation in line with fundamentals?  

    We show that the recent evolution of service-price inflation is in line with economic fundamentals.

  • FAQs: The Spending Cap (PEC 241)  

    The spending cap is crucial to the rebalance in public accounts and the return to economic growth

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Unwinding of food prices reduce inflationary pressures  

    The dissipation of temporary shocks and more stable Exchange rates bring relief to inflation.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Overall weakness in activity, especially in Colombia  

    The South American economies are still lacking in performance.

  • Market Conditions Index - More balanced market conditions  

    After a significant appreciation in the first half of 2016, the financial variables in IU-MCI were steady in recent months.

  • Assessing the undervaluation of the Mexican peso  

    We expect the Mexican peso to end 2016 and 2017 at 17.5 to the dollar

  • What we expect for the Inflation Report  

    The IR is likely to show forecasts below the target for 2018, consistent with our scenario for an interest rate cut in October.

  • Why is Brazil Set to Grow 4% in 2018?  

    We forecast GDP growth of 2.0% in 2017 and 4.0% in 2018. However, this scenario fundamentally depends on fiscal reforms.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Mexico leads the flock  

    The country is consistently delivering positive results, while the South American economies have been disappointing.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions remain expansionary in August  

    The strong improvement in market conditions since April this year suggests an upward bias to GDP growth this year.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflationary relief in LatAm  

    The disinflation process should continue in the region due to weak economic activity and more favorable exchange rates.

  • COLOMBIA: How much depreciation is necessary for a faster current-account deficit adjustment?  

    The currency remains vulnerable to changes in external financial conditions.

  • We forecast a 0.6% contraction in Brazilian 2Q16 GDP  

    We expect investment growth in 2Q16

  • What is the weight of global factors on currency movements?  

    Currencies appreciation in 2016 is due to the less restrictive stance of the Fed and idiosyncratic factors of each country

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - July disappoints after brighter months  

    Countries overall disappointed, most deteriorating substantially compared to the month of June.

  • Market Conditions Index - Less expansionary market conditions due to commodities  

    The expansionary level of the market environment is compatible with our scenario of stabilization of economic activity ahead.

  • What does a rebound look like after a deep recession?  

    We find that after a deep recession, emerging and LatAm economies boast higher growth rates than the average.

  • Is Brazil coming out of the recession?  

    Our results suggest that the recession continues, although there are some signs of improvement.

  • How much can 2017 inflation expectations fall?  

    In our view, inflation expectations for 2017 may fall 40-50 bps until the release of the next Inflation Report

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - A leg up from Mexico and Brazil  

    While Mexico was aided by calendar effects, Brazil presented substantial improvement vis-à-vis last month.

  • Market conditions remain expansionary, despite global uncertainties  

    Despite global uncertainties, IU-MCI is in line with our view of stabilization in economy activity in the 2nd half of the year.

  • Spending ceiling may stabilize public debt below 80% of GDP  

    The structural reform is capable to revert the deterioration of the public accounts

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - LatAm averages neutral surprises  

    Mexico leads the index on favorable activity data, whereas Brazil casts the month’s last position.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market environment worsens in May  

    The IU-MCI is consistent with economic activity stabilization, starting in the second half of 2016

  • We forecast a 0.8% decline in Brazilian 1Q16 GDP  

    Going forward, leading indicators suggest a relative stabilization, starting in the second half of the year.

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - LatAm fares moderately well in April  

    Aside from Brazil, all LatAm countries scored positive results. The index has been mostly above zero since December/15.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions continues to improve in April  

    The market conditions in Brazil continued to improve in April, drove by the improvement in commodities prices.

  • The Copom-o-meter and upcoming monetary policy meetings  

    We show that the Copom-o-meter is consistent with our scenario that the CB will start an easing cycle at its July meeting.

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - Broadly stable  

    The index has been able to achieve above-zero readings in the past months.

  • Market Conditions Index - Substantial improvement in market conditions in March  

    The IU-MCI is consistent with our scenario of 4.0% GDP contraction in 2016.

  • Frequently Asked Questions: Fiscal Accounts  

    The report summarizes frequently asked questions we have been receiving from clients regarding fiscal accounts.

  • Calculating your country’s odds in the qualifying rounds for the 2018 FIFA World Cup  

    Brazil and Uruguay are the top favorites. Ecuador has been the most positive surprise.

  • Oil: Adjustment by mid-2016  

    We forecast crude oil prices at USD 55/bbl by year-end, with the end of global excess supply.

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - Still in the Positives  

    The index sustains a positive result, but LatAm countries continue to adjust to a scenario of lower commodity prices.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions improved in February, but remain contractionary  

    The IU-MCI is compatible with our scenario of 4.0% GDP contraction in 2016 and stabilization over the long term.

  • We forecast an 1.8% GDP contraction in 4Q15 and 3.9% in 2015  

    Going forward, data already released suggest further retreat in the first quarter of this year.

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - A Positive Start to 2016  

    Better than expected data came from Brazil and Mexico early this year

  • Market Conditions Index - External uncertainties lead to worsen market conditions  

    The results suggest a downward bias to our 2016 GDP growth forecast of -2.8%.

  • Itaú Surprise Index LatAm - Ending 2015 on a Positive Note  

    Latin America’s surprise index registers a positive reading after a long, unbroken sequence of disappointments


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