Itaú BBA - Scenario Review - Uruguay: Expecting slower growth

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Scenario Review - Uruguay: Expecting slower growth

June 14, 2018

We reduced our YE18 and YE19 GDP growth forecasts to 2.5%, from 3% in our previous scenario

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

A more adverse international scenario for emerging countries and the reduction of growth forecasts for Brazil and Argentina would likely affect Uruguay. We adjusted our GDP growth forecasts to 2.5% this year and next, down from 3% in our previous scenario.

The UYU weakened in May, following the trend observed in neighboring countries. We revised our YE18 exchange rate forecast to UYU/USD 31.7 (UYU/USD 31.5 previously).

Inflation accelerated due to the depreciation of UYU, and the annual reading is now above the upper bound of the BCU’s target range. We maintain our YE18 inflation forecast at 7.3%. 

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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