Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Uruguay: COVID-19 cases accelerated

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Macro Scenario – Uruguay: COVID-19 cases accelerated

December 15, 2020

Downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

• 
The increase in COVID-19 cases prompted the government to take steps to contain a further spread of the virus. These measures introduce downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts (-4.0% for 2020 and 3.0% for 2021).

• Inflation is slowing down at the margin, although it remains above the target range. We expect inflation to end the year at 9.5% and slow to 8% in 2021, helped by a hike in interest rates next year.
• Fiscal spending has slowed down in recent months, at the same time that revenues have fallen less in real terms. We have adjusted our consolidated fiscal deficit forecast down to 5.6% of GDP from 6.5% previously.

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo
 


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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