Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Aftershocks

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Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Aftershocks

September 13, 2018

We revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 1.5% and 1%, down from 2% in our previous scenario.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 
 

The depreciation of the Argentine peso (ARS) and the country’s economic recession are likely to affect Uruguay. We revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 1.5% and 1%, respectively, down from 2% in our previous scenario.

Inflation is expected to remain above the upper bound of the central bank's target in August, due to the recent depreciation of the UYU. We raised our inflation forecasts to 8.7% for YE18 and 8% for YE19, from 8.3% and 7.5%, respectively, in our previous scenario.

Fiscal consolidation has become more challenging due to lower expected growth. Our fiscal deficit forecasts for both 2018 and 2019 stand at 3.9%, from -3.5% in 2017. 
 

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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