Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Peru: Three presidents in less than a week

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Macro Scenario – Peru: Three presidents in less than a week

December 11, 2020

Solid macro fundamentals offset political turbulence.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

• 
Political turmoil seems to be easing following the election of Francisco Sagasti, as interim president (the third president in less than a week), who will remain in office until July 2021, when the winner of the April 2021 presidential election takes office.  

• Solid macro fundamentals mitigated uncertainty from political turbulence, and allowed Peru to successfully issue a century sovereign bond despite the political crisis.
• We expect GDP to fall by 12.6% for 2020, recovering to 9.6% for 2021. The recovery is supported by a large fiscal and monetary stimulus, against a better external background, but a delay in policy fiscal execution amid a new administration is a downside risk to the economic recovery.


João Pedro Bumachar
Julio Ruiz


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 



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