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Macro Scenario – Peru: Policy uncertainty originating in Congress

September 3, 2020

Fiscal accounts deteriorate amid COVID-19 shock

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

The final reopening phase of the economy will be delayed until the end of September or beginning of October. Meanwhile, new daily cases of COVID-19 seem to have stabilized as of the end of August, after a reacceleration at the beginning of July when social distancing measures were lifted.

Uncertainty lingers, created by market-unfriendly reforms in Congress. Lawmakers approved a reform of the public pension scheme that could put additional pressure on fiscal accounts, while they are also analyzing whether to allow private pension fund affiliates to withdraw 100% of their pensions under certain conditions.

The Ministry of Finance revised its fiscal balance projections downward for 2020, reflecting economic conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The projections include a fiscal consolidation plan starting in 2021.

Joao Pedro Resende
Julio Ruiz


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 



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