Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Peru: A help from higher copper prices 

Macro Latam

< Back

Macro Scenario – Peru: A help from higher copper prices 

January 14, 2021

More populist initiatives from Congress

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

• 
Authorities announced that the first batch of vaccines will be delivered as early as this month, while the country has so far avoided a severe second wave of the virus and harsh new mobility restrictions.

• Congress continues to push for populist measures, recently approving an initiative that allows the monetary authority to cap bank lending interest rates. The BCRP will have the ability to set those limits, but not the requirement to do it. Thus, given the solid track record of the monetary authority, risks for the financial system and credit market seem low, at least in the near term.

• We improved our GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021 to -11.7% (compared with our previous scenario of -12.6%) and 11.2% (before: 9.6%), respectively, assuming no strict retightening of distancing measures and better terms of trade (due to higher copper prices). A still expansionary monetary policy stance will continue to support the recovery in 2021.

Joao Pedro Resende
Julio Ruiz​​​​​​​


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



< Back