Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Paraguay: GDP growth resumes after the drought

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Macro Scenario – Paraguay: GDP growth resumes after the drought

January 22, 2020

GDP growth resumed in 3Q19, led by consumption


For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.

 

• GDP grew in 3Q19 after two consecutive quarters of declines due to a drought that affected the soybean harvest. We expect the economy to grow by 3.5% this year after posting zero growth in 2019, basically driven by the agricultural sector and the normalization of the harvest.

• Inflation closed 2019 at 2.8% yoy, the lowest level in ten years. In 2020 we expect consumer prices to increase by 3.5% in line with our expectation of more dynamic domestic demand. In this context, we expect interest rates to increase to 4.25%.

• The government placed sovereign bonds amounting to 450 million dollars in the international financial markets in January. We estimate that total gross public debt will be about 27% of GDP at the end of 2020.

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo


For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.

 



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