Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Argentina: A chance to turn the page

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Macro Scenario – Argentina: A chance to turn the page

September 3, 2020

Argentina will seek an agreement with the IMF following a successful debt restructuring with private creditors.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

Argentina will seek an agreement with the IMF following a successful debt restructuring with private creditors. A fiscal consolidation plan and less reliance on central bank financing will likely be conditions in any agreement with the Fund.

A lower debt burden doesn’t automatically mean fresh capital inflows. In this context, the government is implementing more regulations and controls to curb inflation and exchange-rate depreciation. These measures are unlikely to have a lasting effect on inflation and will come at the cost of even lower activity. We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% for this year, with an inflation rate of 37% (down from 40% before).

Joao Pedro Resende

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 



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