Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • MEXICO – May’s Industrial production still affected by distancing measures  

    IP weakened further on a monthly basis, albeit less than last month

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in June  

    Headline inflation was pressured by core tradables and gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: Slowing down the pace of cuts?  

    Differences within board members over the easing pace may be emerging

  • CHILE – Mild inflation drop in June  

    A strained domestic demand and the stabilization of the CLP would lead to contained inflationary pressures going forward.

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus boost in 2Q20  

    With lockdown measures persisting into July and job shedding continuing, import demand will likely stay suppressed in the near-term

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Peso bond issuance in the international capital markets  

    The transmission of COVID-19 remains under control, allowing the country to progress toward the new normal.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation levels bottom out  

    The continued decline in activity led the government to increase the fiscal package.

  • COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise in June  

    A downbeat activity outlook, swiftly loosening labor market and diminishing inflation expectations point to subdued inflationary pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Internal demand collapsed in April  

    Weak internal demand in April reflects the first full month of lockdown

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Scrapping fiscal limits to face the crisis  

    Larger fiscal and monetary support are necessary to contain the activity collapse

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: Downside surprise in activity  

    Expansionary monetary policy for long

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: The art of postponing  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9%, from -9.1% before.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: It’s all about  

    A stronger-than-expected activity decline called for a boost to stimulus measures, but uncertainty complicated the specificities

  • CHILE – Activity collapse deepens in May  

    Mining activity still lifted growth in the month.

  • PERU – Lower headline inflation in June  

    Lower gasoline and agro prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Another sharp narrowing of current account deficit in 1Q20  

    We forecast a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP this year.

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening at a faster-than-expected pace  

    The unemployment rate will likely exceed 10% on average this year, peaking in coming months.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing weakness deepens in May  

    The sectorial activity for May points to the GDP proxy (IMACEC) contracting 15.5% (14.1% fall in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Changing pace with a 25-bp cut, liquidity measures adjusted  

    We see the policy rate reaching 2%, but risks are tilted towards lower rates.

  • COLOMBIA – Further labor market loosening in May  

    The unemployment rate is to average 16% this year (10.5% last year), but risks tilt to the upside if the economic recovery in 2H20 underwhelms.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity collapsed in April  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9% for this year, from -9.1% before

  • MEXICO – Temporary deterioration of the trade balance  

    Exports and imports remained weak in May amid the Outbreak

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP collapsed in April  

    Broad-based deterioration in economic activity amid the outbreak

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus continued to widened in May  

    Imports continued to slide.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales fell sharply in April amid COVID-19  

    Private consumption determinants also weakened

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Cycle goes on  

    Another 50-bp cut in the next meeting is likely

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of June  

    Upside surprise came from core non-food items

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal balance deteriorated further in May  

    There is the risk of a wider primary deficit than the 4.8% that we currently expect for this year

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to contract at the beginning of the year  

    We expect activity to show a bigger contraction in 2Q20 due to the impact of social distancing measures.

  • Monthly GDP drops 8.4% mom/sa in April  

    PM-Itaú posts the sharpest decline in the series

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 1Q20 amid COVID-19  

    Private demand deteriorated, showing the first negative effects from the outbreak

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit despite weakened imports  

    Weak imports is consistent with a significant consumption and investment contraction ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: A deeper decline amid greater uncertainty  

    Rates seen staying at 0.5% until mid-2022

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates low for longer, liquidity and QE measures boosted  

    Preventing widespread bankruptcies and job losses justifies the recent boosting of fiscal and monetary support.

  • COLOMBIA – Fiscal rule suspended to allow for greater crisis response  

    While the latest developments allow for short-term fiscal relief, a tough fiscal consolidation program would be needed ahead.

  • PERU – Monthly GDP collapsed in May  

    Non-natural resource sectors were affected the most

  • CHILE – Two-year USD 12 billion cross-party fiscal plan to tackle pandemic  

    The enhanced fiscal response would help avoid a more long-lasting impact from the coronavirus pandemic on the economy

  • COLOMBIA – Activity collapsed in April  

    With lockdown measures persisting through May, and only partially eased in June, the activity slump will be sharp in 2Q20

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rate remained stable in May  

    Headline inflation was unchanged in May, helped by price freezes and caps

  • MEXICO – Industrial production collapsed in April  

    Industrial production deterioration reflects a full month of lockdown amid the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Restrictions on economic activity are lifted  

    We project a GDP drop of 3.6% for this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Easing the lockdown  

    We forecast a 2.6% drop in GDP for this year.

  • MEXICO – Inflation rises by less than expected in May  

    The downside surprise in inflation was driven by a contraction in core goods ex-food prices

  • COLOMBIA – Significant disinflation in May  

    As inflation drops swiftly and the activity slump consolidates, the central bank will likely deem it is necessary to persist with monetary easing

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in May  

    As job losses rapidly rise, import dynamics are set to remain weak ahead

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Debt and health  

    Argentina defaulted again.

  • CHILE – Inflation falls in May  

    A swiftly loosening labor market and low oil prices lowered inflationary pressures

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Still at a standstill  

    More stimulus likely required to aid recovery, but rating risk hovers

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q20  

    Falling internal demand and a weaker currency will likely lead to a gradual CAD narrowing this year

  • CHILE – Record activity decline in April  

    With the health situation deteriorating in May, mobility restrictions were extended, hence activity momentum is set to worsen before it gets better

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Another 50bp rate cut, but no unanimity  

    We see room for lower rates, but the board would prefer not to move more aggressively than already done.

  • CHILE – Private consumption slump leads activity decline in April  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • CHILE – Historical job destruction unfolded in April  

    Labor market loosening would persist after April as social distancing measures continued and growth prospects faltered.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market hard-hit in April as dual shocks strike  

    Additional labor market loosening ahead is in line with a significant consumption decline this year.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: still no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    Most members pointed out the importance of acting with prudence

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 Inflation Report: higher inflation in 2020 consistent with a cautious easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to continue a cautious easing cycle

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp deterioration of fiscal deficit in April  

    We expect fiscal accounts to continue to deteriorate in 2Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in April  

    We forecast a surplus of USD 17.5 billion this year, as measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 will take further a toll on activity and imports

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 GDP deteriorated, but surprised to the upside  

    Industrial and services sector started showing the negative effects from the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Strong current account result in 1Q20  

    Net portfolio flows deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance temporarily deteriorated in April  

    Weak exports and imports reflected the full COVID-19 effect in the economy.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in March  

    Already weak retail sales started reflecting the negative effects from COVID-19

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprise to the upside in the first half of May  

    Headline inflation rebounded driven by core food and gasoline prices

  • PERU – Narrow CAD, amid weak GDP and deteriorating fiscal accounts in 1Q20  

    Fiscal accounts to deteriorate further due to a large fiscal stimulus and weak economic outlook

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Preparing additional quantitative stimulus  

    A larger external drag and recovery doubts consolidate the view that significant monetary stimulus is required to combat the shock

  • CHILE – Current account balance correction in 1Q20  

    Going forward, the expectation of a rising trade surplus, given a domestic demand implosion, would support a swift CAD narrowing

  • CHILE – Consumption drag continues in 1Q20, further deterioration expected ahead  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties would lead to a 3.7% contraction this year

  • COLOMBIA – Weak 1Q20 GDP: a preview of things to come  

    The central bank will continue enhancing liquidity measures to ease the functioning of the financial system and to protect business operations and employment.

  • PERU – March’s monthly GDP contracted sharply amid the outbreak  

    The deterioration in economic activity was generalized.

  • MEXICO – On going 50-bp easing cycle  

    Balance of risk for inflation remains uncertain

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in 1Q20  

    Despite weak internal demand and a weaker currency, we expect a gradual narrowing of the current account deficit given the developments in the oil market.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity decline in March  

    How economic activity unfolds will depend on the duration of the lockdown, its effect on the labor market and corporate balance sheets

  • ARGENTINA – COVID-19 caused disinflation in April  

    Still, we note that monetary financing of a growing fiscal deficit tilts risk to the upside.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Smart quarantine  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Change of plans  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated amid COVID-19  

    Manufacturing output is the most affected sector by the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Hard hit  

    The economy is on the receiving end of two shocks, one from the coronavirus and the other from oil market developments.

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: A bold fiscal and monetary response  

    Strict measures to contain the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Social distancing with creditors?  

    We now forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020, from -6.4% in our previous scenario.

  • CHILE – Inflation moderates amid coronavirus shock  

    Low oil prices and a widening output gap mean inflation would remain contained going forward.

  • MEXICO – Weak internal demand before COVID-19  

    Uncertainties over domestic policy direction will also keep denting investment outlook.

  • CHILE – El choque del coronavirus y menores precios internacionales de petróleo favorecen a la balan  

    Las medidas de control del coronavirus, el sentimiento privado bajo y el deterioro del mercado laboral, llevarán a un débil dinamismo de las importaciones.

  • CHILE – Coronavirus shock and lower oil prices boost trade balance in April  

    As social distancing measures stay in place, private sentiment drops and the labor market loosens, import dynamics will remain weak going forward.

  • MEXICO – Lower headline and core inflation  

    Fall in gasoline prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Low-for-long rates, with additional stimulus on hand  

    Given the economic outlook, we expect rates to remain at their technical minimum throughout the year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation eases in April  

    Core inflation is slowing fast at the margin

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Large output gap calls for significant monetary easing  

    Given the deterioration of the economic outlook, another 50bps cut this month is likely

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: easing cycle with prudence  

    Board members seem to agree on the need for lower rates

  • CHILE – Sharp activity decline in March  

    Economic data is only starting to reflect the impact of the shock, with activity set to get worse before it gets better.

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate rises 1pp in 1Q20 amid start of coronavirus shock  

    Weaker job gains and steady labor force growth led the loosening of the labor market

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP in 1Q20 weakened amid COVID  

    Economic growth deteriorated in 1Q20 from an already weak growth pace in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp labor market deterioration in 1Q20 amid lockdown  

    Labor market loosening hints at considerable consumption fall in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Abrupt retail decline in March as virus strikes  

    The monthly GDP proxy is set to contract 1% YoY in March.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A consecutive 50-bp cut  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • ARGENTINA – New drop in activity in February  

    Coincident indicators point to a sharp contraction in March.

  • MEXICO – Further trade balance improvement in March  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated in March amid disruption in global supply chains

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP deteriorated in February  

    Weak momentum in monthly GDP before COVID-19

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation falls sharply in the first half of April, while core inflation decelerat  

    Inflation was dragged mainly by a fall in gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in February  

    Retail sales growth pace was weak before COVID-19

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus despite decline in exports  

    We expect a wider trade surplus this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit increased, affected by COVID-19  

    We expect a dramatic deterioration of the fiscal accounts in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Gradual rate cuts in emergency meetings  

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  • COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in February  

    The evolvement of external imbalances will depend on the opposing forces of low oil prices and slumped domestic demand

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Emphasizing low-for-long message  

    While rates would remain at their technical minimum throughout the year, we cannot rule out the use of additional forms of monetary tools.

  • COLOMBIA – Strong activity prior to dual shock  

    Despite strong activity at the start of the year, dual shocks would have a significant impact on the economy and lead to a growth contraction.

  • ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation picked up  

    The rise in headline inflation was driven by food and education services.

  • PERU – Decent monthly GDP growth before COVID-19  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply amid coronavirus outbreak

  • MEXICO – Weak industrial production even before coronavirus outbreak  

    Coronavirus outbreak is set to deteriorate activity sharply

  • CHILE – Signs of moderating inflationary pressures in March  

    We see inflation falling closer to the 3% target in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation slowed down in March  

    Lower inflation driven by a fall in gasoline prices

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in 1Q20  

    With the Chilean economy all but closing down in late March and April, import dynamics will deteriorate further in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Food drives inflation in March  

    Inflation remains near the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range (2%-4%), but core measures are closer to the 3% target.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: cautious tone, but further easing is likely  

    Despite the cautious tone, we expect Banxico to reduce monetary policy further in the upcoming months.

  • MEXICO – Higher fiscal deficits ahead  

    The fiscal update reflects worse fiscal revenues and some support to the economy through extra spending

  • CHILE – Upbeat activity in February  

    Despite the activity improvement at the beginning of 2019, we expect a 1.6% contraction this year.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Maximum monetary impulse necessary during unusual times  

    Widening output gap to dominate inflation trajectory

  • PERU – Inflation decelerated in March  

    Headline inflation was dragged by a sharp fall in core inflation

  • CHILE – Favorable activity dynamics ahead of global shock  

    We expect the GDP proxy for February to grow 3.3%.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and “low for long” forward guidance  

    Any additional monetary stimulus would likely come through quantitative easing measures

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening in February  

    As economic conditions deteriorate, significant labor market loosening is expected ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Disjointed labor market ahead of dual shock  

    The shock expected to hit activity this year would lead to some labor market loosening

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Additional easing is likely  

    We expect a 50bp rate cut to 0.5% at tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity falling before coronavirus outbreak  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 4.4% for 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and strengthening liquidity measures  

    Our call is for stable rates ahead, but risks are tilted to more easing.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved even further in February  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated on a monthly basis

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in January  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – Still-wide trade surplus in February  

    Lower commodity prices are likely to affect trade surplus this year

  • ARGENTINA – Current account turned into surplus in 4Q19  

    At the margin, we estimate that the s.a. current account surplus reached 2.3% of GDP in 4Q19.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales in January recovered  

    Coronavirus outbreak to hit private consumption in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – GDP fell 2.2% in 2019, marking two years of recession  

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2020 was recently revised down to -4.4% from -2.0%

  • MEXICO – Inflation decelerated in 1H March  

    Lower energy prices pressured down inflation

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting anticipated: A 50-bp hawkish cut, but more easing is likely  

    We expect a policy rate of 5.50% by the end of 2020.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 4Q19  

    Public gross fixed investment deteriorated further.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing in January to be short-lived  

    Amid the recent terms-of-trade collapse and the global scenario deterioration, Colombia’s external imbalances will likely endure ahead.

  • CHILE – Current account deficit widened in 2019  

    We expect a weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices to lead to a narrowing of external imbalance this year.

  • CHILE – A consumption implosion in 4Q19  

    The global expansion of COVID-19 and the resulting measures undertaken only enhance headwinds ahead.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp intermeeting rate cut and measures to support the financial  

    The global liquidity wave paved the way for rate cuts in Chile.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered softly in January  

    Coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to industrial production outlook

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales continued to drive growth in January  

    Strong external headwinds will likely lead to a growth slowdown ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in February  

    Tariff freeze decelerated headline inflation.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: No changes in monetary policy  

    Price stability would give the BCP room to maintain the current monetary policy rate.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government in office  

    The government is focused on public accounts.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation rises beyond expectations, with core inflation slowing down  

    Annual inflation rebound will fade away in March as the unfavorable base effect disappears

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February  

    The quick correction of Chile’s external imbalances is a favorable development that could alleviate part of the pressure on the CLP.

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations in February  

    Robust growth, along with the weakening of the Colombian peso, pose a risk to our disinflation expectation

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 4Q19  

    The figures show internal demand in Mexico was weak in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Another wide current account deficit in 2019  

    The favorable FDI inflows to Colombia would continue to allay possible central bank concerns

  • PERU – Low inflation in February  

    Annual headline inflation stood below the central bank target for the sixth month in a row

  • CHILE – Activity off to a faster-than-expected start to 2020  

    Despite the positive dynamics at the beginning of the year, a continued momentum recovery is unlikely

  • CHILE – Labor survey revamp results in higher historical unemployment  

    A further labor market loosening is expected amid low growth.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable urban labor market developments in January  

    Labor market developments in urban zones is in line with a prolonged period of activity recovery and elevated business confidence levels

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in January  

    Manufacturing exports improved on a monthly basis, but momentum is still weak

  • CHILE – Activity recovery advances in January  

    Sectorial indicators point at a January GDP proxy (IMACEC) expansion of 1.0%.

  • ARGENTINA – Weak activity affects fiscal balance in January  

    Total revenues decreased by 8.2% yoy in real terms in January, dragged down by a weak tax collection

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: not committing with further rate cuts  

    Most members are data dependent for future monetary policy decisions

  • MEXICO – 4Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and slightly higher inflation  

    The balance of risks for inflation was kept as uncertain

  • PERU – Soft 2019 GDP, amid narrow fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by weak gross fixed public investment

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus remained solid at the beginning of the year  

    Weak imports sustained a wide trade surplus in January.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP contraction in 2019  

    Economic activity marked two years of recession.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit in 2019 widened to a three-year high  

    We expect the CAD was close to 4.5% of GDP last year (3.9% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Growth in 2019 was the highest in 5 years  

    Growth in 4Q19 was broadly in line with 3Q19 as slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty keeps the board in wait-and-watch mode  

    Subtle signal that further loosening could once again become part of the discussion

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Board unanimously vote for another 25-bp rate cut  

    Deputy Governor Esquivel is no longer backing a 50-bp move.

  • COLOMBIA – Another strong year for retail, but can it endure?  

    Despite protests losing momentum by December, activity at the margin continued to weaken, hampering the carry-over for 2020

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation under control  

    Below the inflation target

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Fiscal accounts deteriorated  

    The incoming government proposes a fiscal rule to ensure the sustainability of public finances.

  • CHILE – Inflation surprise as pass-through pressures materialize  

    Reflecting restrained domestic demand pressures is the near historical low non-tradable inflation

  • CHILE – Large trade balance result to start 2020  

    Still double-digit falls in consumer and capital goods imports underscore the weak domestic demand

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report – Narrower output gap could justify a modest policy tightening  

    Despite a more gradual disinflation path now expected, inflation is viewed to be under control

  • CHILE – Activity bounce-back exceeds expectations in December  

    Expansionary monetary policy and fiscal stimulus would aid an activity recovery from 4Q19

  • CHILE – Bitter sweet labor market data in 4Q19  

    We expect the full impact of the recent events on the labor market to be reflected in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    Inflation balance of risks remains symmetrical.

  • COLOMBIA – Some labor market positives in 4Q19  

    If the labor market shows some improvement ahead, the central bank would not need to increase the monetary stimulus.

  • CHILE – Positive activity surprise to end a dismal year  

    Despite positive signs that activity is improving, downbeat private sentiment would lead to below potential growth this year

  • MEXICO – Weak 4Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    The economy likely contracted 0.1% in 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates on hold amid uncertain inflation path  

    Our expectation of rates cuts depends on the impact of the Chilean peso on inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2019  

    Weak non-oil imports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in November  

    The real wage bill continues to expand at a solid pace

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in November  

    Economic activity momentum remained weak

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in 2019  

    We expect the trade surplus to remain wide in 2020

  • ARGENTINA – Further deceleration of activity at the end of 2019  

    Activity contracted by 2.3% yoy during the first 11 months of the year

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp adjustment of fiscal deficit in 2019  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 1% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Transitory inflation rebound  

    Inflation was pressured by an unfavorable base effect and an update in excise tax

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: GDP growth resumes after the drought  

    GDP growth resumed in 3Q19, led by consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Challenges for the new administration  

    The fiscal deficit increased in 2019, becoming the foremost challenge for the new government

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in November  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain wide at around 4.5% of GDP for both 2019 and 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity moderates in November  

    A gradual core retail sales slowdown expected ahead, in line with depressed sentiment and a weakening labor market

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in November  

    Economic activity was dragged mainly by a sharp contraction in construction output

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation ends 2019 at a high level  

    Our forecast for 2020 stands at 43%

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in October  

    Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy are weighing on investment

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in November  

    Industrial production surprised on the downside

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but still gradual deceleration of core  

    Persistence in core inflation stand in the way of a more frontloaded easing cycle

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in December  

    Despite the lower-than-expected inflation, our diffusion index points to above-target prints in coming months

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus to end 2019  

    An export normalization amid constrained imports would lead to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit this year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations at the close of 2019  

    Food price normalization after the recent supply shocks would aid the expected disinflation process this year

  • CHILE – Another sharp activity drop in November  

    As activity operations normalized during the final month of 2019, we expect a milder year-over-year activity contraction in December

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