Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit narrowed in 1Q21  

    The central bank remained the main source of financing for the Treasury.

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in February  

    Recovering domestic demand is restraining the pace of the trade correction

  • COLOMBIA – A 2.0% tax reform submitted  

    Negotiations with Congress are likely to yield a watered-down version of the bill.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reinforcing rates on-hold this year  

    The cost of signaling rate hikes only in 2022 is low given adverse short-term dynamics.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation comes in significantly above expectations in March  

    The anti-inflationary toolkit is reduced to tighter controls, with an eye on the October legislative election.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity rebounds in February  

    We expect the Colombian economy to bounce back with growth of 5.0% this year, after shrinking 6.8% in 2020

  • PERU – Weak GDP in February, despite upside surprise  

    The monthly GDP was less affected than expected by the retightening of social distancing measures.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New COVID-19 cases spike, while vaccination remains slow  

    We have adjusted our GDP forecast for this year down to 3.5%, from 4% previously.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Vaccination advances, but COVID-19 cases hit records  

    Vaccination is progressing, although cases are peaking.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Hold the line  

    Macroeconomic policies will likely lead to increased distortions

  • MEXICO – Temporary supply disruptions in manufacturing output  

    A global supply disruption of semiconductors and temporary gas shortages affected manufacturing output

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Tight presidential race   

    Polls suggest six candidates could slip through in the first two places and then participate in the second round

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Time to talk taxes  

    A structural tax reform is a key prerequisite to maintain investment grade rating

  • MEXICO – Energy prices pressured inflation further in March  

    Core annual inflation also accelerated.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: most board members see decision to stay on-hold as a pause  

    The majority of Board members considered this is not the end of the easing cycle

  • CHILE – Another downside inflation surprise in March  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • CHILE – Imports improvement trims trade surplus in March  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovered in January  

    Still, internal demand indicators remain below pre-outbreak levels

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation moderated in March, normalization ahead expected  

    Limited inflationary pressures will favor maintaining a significant monetary stimulus in place

  • CHILE – Recovery continued in February prior to March shock  

    Strong fundamentals support growth of 6.5% this year.

  • CHILE – Weak activity in February  

    Sequential gains remain in line with a gradual recovery scenario

  • MEXICO - Stable fiscal accounts in 2021  

    Improved economic outlook and higher oil prices support fiscal accounts but weak oil production is still a risk

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate ticked up in February  

    A transitory deterioration of labor market indicators is expected in March amid renewed quarantine measures.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Improved outlook supports rate hikes in 4Q21  

    We now expect the tightening cycle to begin in 4Q21.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild labor market recovery in February  

    The reintroduction of mobility restriction in March would likely result in another transitory loosening of the labor market.

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp increase of activity in January  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021, largely driven by a high statistical carryover (5.0%).

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable at 0.5% for several quarters  

    The central bank is downplaying market expectations of rate hikes later this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade balance posts sequential improvement in February  

    We expect higher commodity prices and import controls to boost the trade surplus this year

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Still on-hold, but now unanimously  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • MEXICO – Temporarily lower manufacturing exports lead to narrower trade balance  

    We expect the trade surplus to narrow slightly in 2021 relative to 2020

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: on hold, as expected  

    Odds of further easing are low.

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP was soft in January  

    Manufacturing output and services sector are a temporary drag to activity

  • MEXICO – Retail sales slowed down in January  

    The retightening of social distancing measures affected retail sales

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of March  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP recovery in 4Q20, following easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021.

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit fell in February  

    Tax collection increased in real terms in the quarter ended in February, led by higher export taxes

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in 4Q20  

    External demand is the main driver of the recovery

  • CHILE – Strong end to a dismal 2020 raises upside risks to our 6.5% growth forecast for this year  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit at the start of the year  

    With restrictions lifted and business sentiment improving, imports are expected to resume their recovery path

  • CHILE – Large current account surplus in 2020  

    A flexible exchange rate, the domestic demand slump, and favorable terms of trade led to a 1.4% of GDP surplus in 2020.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Vaccination campaign has started  

    We see downside risks to our 3% GDP growth forecast.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild activity decline at the start of 2021  

    With most restrictions lifted in February, the activity hiccup is expected to be transitory

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: COVID-19 red alert   

    Downside risks to our 4% GDP growth projection

  • MEXICO – Soft industrial production in January  

    Worldwide temporary shortage of semiconductors is likely affecting manufacturing output

  • ARGENTINA – Still-high inflation in February  

    Our inflation forecast for the year remains at 50%

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: No rush  

    The agreement with the IMF looks increasingly distant

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal adjustment postponed  

    Fiscal consolidation is the key macro risk to monitor in the near term

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Slow start to vaccination campaign  

    More populist measures emerged from Congress as general elections near

  • MEXICO – February inflation driven by energy prices  

    Core inflation stood practically unchanged.

  • COLOMBIA – Still-low inflation in February  

    With the economic recovery advancing, to be further aided by surging oil prices, additional rate cuts are unlikely

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in February  

    Inflationary pressures moderated and core inflation remains at historical lows.

  • CHILE – Copper exports continue to boost trade balance  

    The wide balance came despite imports gaining momentum at the margin.

  • MEXICO – Internal demand slowed down in December  

    A negative base effect (Mexico’s black Friday) affected sequential private consumption.

  • MEXICO – 4Q20 Inflation Report: core inflation forecast path unchanged for 2021  

    The central bank also expects a better economic outlook for 2021 and 2022.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild CAD narrowing in 2020  

    We see stability for the CAD at (a wide) 3.4% of GDP this year

  • CHILE – Sequential GDP recovery continues  

    A pesar de la contracción interanual, mejoras secuenciales persistentes son un buen augurio para las perspectivas de recuperación.

  • PERU – Inflation in February surprised to the downside  

    Inflation remains above the BCRP’s central target of 2%

  • CHILE – Sluggish labor improvement in January  

    The economic reopening since January would bolster employment dynamics

  • MEXICO – Trade surplus narrowed at the margin  

    U.S. economic strong recovery and a soft internal demand will support the trade surplus in 2021

  • COLOMBIA – Unfavorable labor market dynamics in January  

    A still fragile labor market was shaken by the new round of mobility restrictions.

  • CHILE – Transitory activity slowdown in January  

    IMACEC would contract 2% YoY in January.

  • MEXICO – GDP recovered further in 4Q20  

    External demand is benefiting the recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus in January  

    We forecast a trade surplus of USD 17 billion for 2021, up from USD 12.5 billion in 2020

  • MEXICO – Wide current account surplus in 2020  

    Trade balance was supported by a strong recovery in external demand, poor internal demand and a weak currency

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: we now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut  

    Tightening of external financial conditions likely to limit further easing

  • MEXICO – Higher energy prices drove inflation in the first half of February  

    Annual core inflation remained persistent

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery in 4Q20 did not prevent a sharp GDP contraction last year  

    We forecast GDP growth of 5.5% for 2021.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in December  

    The deterioration reflects tighter social distancing measures and a negative base effect

  • ARGENTINA – Slight reduction of primary fiscal deficit in January  

    We forecast a reduction in the primary fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity collapsed in 2020 despite fiscal stimulus, helping a current account balanc  

    Final domestic demand was supported by easing of distancing measures and fiscal stimulus

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Slight activity contraction in 2020  

    For 2021, we estimate growth of 4% due to the normalization of activities.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Positive signs for inflation  

    We expect a weak labor market to reinforce disinflation this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Milder-than-expected GDP decline in 4Q20  

    The positive impact of monetary stimulus, the vaccination program, and higher oil prices would aid an activity bounce back this year

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity dynamics at the close of 2020   

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.4% in 4Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – High inflation despite intervention on prices  

    Warning sign for the government as it seeks to reduce inflation, with an eye on the legislative election.

  • MEXICO – Better than expected Industrial production in December  

    Industrial production is closer to pre-pandemic levels driven by external demand

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Low inflation warrants prolonged monetary stimulus  

    Elevated risks and changes at the board make the path for rates less certain.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: resuming rate cuts  

    We expect further easing over the next two meetings

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Significant support required, but not forever  

    With signs that the worst of the crisis has passed, more dedication towards the medium-term challenges would be required

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Facing a second wave   

    The vaccination campaign started

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Surfing the summer  

    The government will likely try to preserve the current precarious macro equilibrium.

  • COLOMBIA – Modest trade deficit correction in 2020  

    The large trade deficit is in line with a current account deficit of 3.4% of GDP last year

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in January’s inflation  

    Inflation was driven mainly by an increase in energy prices

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus to start 2021  

    The anticipated domestic economic recovery and increasing income deficit would be contained by high copper prices this year.

  • CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in January  

    With output gap still wide, similar inflation dynamics are likely to persist for most of the year.

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in January, but core inflation fell  

    Limited core price increases continue to contain headline inflation.

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovery continued in November  

    However, internal demand indicators remain far below pre-pandemic levels

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Limited inflationary pressures favor prolonged stimulus  

    The technical staff sees a rate path somewhat below the median analyst outlook and the previous report’s implied path.

  • PERU – Upside surprise in January’s inflation  

    The headline inflation figure was driven by higher energy and food prices

  • CHILE – Services-led upside activity surprise in December  

    Statistical carryover to aid robust growth bounce back this year

  • MEXICO – Narrow fiscal balances in 2020 despite a health crisis  

    Public debt increased in 2020 due to a lower GDP base effect

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Divided board holds rates at 1.75%  

    In spite of the split vote, there is consensus within the board that the monetary policy stance must remain expansionary.

  • CHILE – Labor market slows in December  

    Moderating labor market gains come amid renewed health restrictions

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail activity in December  

    The GDP proxy would contract 3.5% in December

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market recovery stalled in December  

    Urban labor dynamics deteriorated as mobility restrictions were renewed.

  • MEXICO – Stronger-than-expected 4Q20 GDP flash estimate  

    GDP likely fell by 8.5% in 2020

  • MEXICO – Large trade surplus in 2020  

    We expect the trade surplus to narrow gradually in 2021 relative to 2020

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Extending the credit facility  

    Unanimous support to continue to signal low-for-long rates

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in November.  

    Further easing of distancing measures and the “Buen Fin” boosted retail sales.

  • ARGENTINA – Back to a trade balance deficit in December  

    .We expect higher soy prices to boost the trade surplus this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity continued to recover in November  

    We revised our GDP forecast for 2020 to -10% from -10.5%, given the better-than-expected performance in the final months of last year.

  • MEXICO – 1H Jan inflation surprised to the upside  

    Higher energy prices and persistent core inflation were the main drivers

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit hit 6.5% of GDP in 2020  

    The size of the fiscal consolidation for this year is likely to be discussed with the IMF.

  • COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in November  

    Milder import declines suggest a gradual domestic demand recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Activity gradually advanced in November  

    Despite the downside activity surprise, we still expect GDP to drop 7% in 2020.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Closed borders  

    For 2021, we maintain our growth forecast of 3.0%, with downside risks

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New fiscal responsibility bill  

    For 2021, we expect a broad-based growth of 4.0%.

  • PERU – Solid sequential GDP growth in November  

    Non-natural resources sector supported November’s activity expansion

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Contained inflation creates scope for additional monetary easing?  

    A slow rollout of the vaccination program amplifies downside risks to activity.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation spiked in December, as expected  

    Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Ghosts still linger  

    Higher soy prices unlikely to help an unbalanced economy

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: A help from higher copper prices   

    More populist initiatives from Congress

  • A delicate start to 2021  

    A swift vaccination rollout could compensate a weaker start to 2021.

  • MEXICO – Further recovery of internal demand in October  

    Internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – Industrial production posted a solid sequential growth in November  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • CHILE – Inflation ends 2020 at 3.0% target  

    The strong CLP performance and the re-introduction of mobility restriction measures would contain pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Inflation fell in December despite core inflation increase  

    Non-core food prices exerted downward pressure, which was partly offset by a rebound in core inflation as the “Buen Fin” effect faded away.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: the easing cycle will likely resume soon, but there are risks  

    Deputy Governor Heath and Esquivel were the dissenting votes.

  • CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2020, helped by terms of trade  

    Dynamic consumption and recovering oil prices would lead to a narrower trade surpluses ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise to end 2020, but core inflationary pressures limited  

    Renewed mobility restrictions and significant COP appreciation will keep inflationary pressures contained at the start of 2021.

  • CHILE – Labor market improvement continued in November  

    The recovery at the margin is reflecting the economic reopening and economic stimuli.

  • CHILE – Activity returns to growth in November  

    While commerce will remain dynamic, tighter mobility restrictions mean that the recovery path is set to be uneven.

  • COLOMBIA – Self-employment driving labor market gains in November  

    Incipient signs of improvement in employment could be countered by social distancing measures and the minimum wage increase.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity surprised to the upside in October  

    All sectors posted sequential gains in the quarter ended in October.

  • MEXICO – Activity recovery continued in October  

    Monthly GDP continued recovering on a sequential basis.

  • MEXICO – Inflation picked up in 1H December, reflecting the end of “El Buen Fin”  

    The numbers confirm that the effect of Black Friday on November inflation was transitory

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty favors retention of significant impulse  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Board majority eyes inflation expectations  

    The minority is concerned with the possibility of a wider-than-estimated negative output gap.

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit narrowed in November  

    We see downside risk to our primary deficit forecast of 6.9% of GDP this year

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus collapsed in November  

    We see downside risk to our trade surplus forecast of USD 15.0 billion for this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A split stay-on-hold decision  

    A split board and the change in guard mean a deeper easing cycle cannot be ruled out

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit in October  

    The economic reopening and signs of a recovering labor market are supporting improved import dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand recovered in 3Q20  

    Domestic demand recovered at a slower pace than the external demand

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: further rate cuts likely in the near term  

    We expect Banxico to resume cutting the policy rate as soon as 1Q21.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP rebounds in 3Q20 following the easing of lockdowns  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity and inflation on the rise  

    The economy continued to recover in the beginning of 4Q20.

  • PERU – October’s monthly GDP surprised to the upside  

    Economic activity recovered further

  • ARGENTINA – A small respite for inflation in November  

    Lower-than-expected headline inflation does not brighten the cloudy horizon

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: COVID-19 cases accelerated  

    Downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity recovery advances in October  

    With the economic reopening enduring at the backend of 2020, the continuance of the activity recovery is expected ahead.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Three presidents in less than a week  

    Solid macro fundamentals offset political turbulence.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Deal with IMF punted to 2021  

    Macro outlook remains challenging.

  • MEXICO – Upside industrial production surprise in October  

    Industrial production growth was driven by manufacturing output and construction

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: With a little help from the IMF  

    The government accessed the FCL amid a challenging fiscal situation, while a tax-reform is expected in 2021.

  • MEXICO – Inflation in November slowed down due to the “Buen Fin”  

    A fall in non-core fruits and vegetable prices also exerted downward pressure.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Still-uncertain scenario calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Investment dynamics would play a key role in the CB’s reaction function.

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation falls further in November  

    Inflation for 2020 will likely come in closer to 1.5%, rather than our current 2% call.

  • CHILE – Mining exports remain robust in November  

    Imports remain weak as uncertainty restricts investments and the energy drag persists.

  • CHILE – November inflation fall underscores transitory nature of recent upside surprises  

    Inflation came below expectations, hinting that pressure form pension withdrawal faded.

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit correction continued in 3Q20, but to still-wide levels   

    Despite soft domestic demand, weak terms-of-trade mean Colombia’s trade deficit correction is slow.

  • PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in November  

    We now expect end of year 2020 inflation at 2.0% (compared to our previous forecast of 1.6%).

  • CHILE – Services drag activity down in October  

    Despite signs of a recovery, GDP remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market recovery continues in October  

    Self-employment leads job recoveries, but private salaried posts are also posting gains

  • CHILE - Retail-led activity rise in October  

    With industrial production improving and retail sales surging, we expect the monthly GDP proxy to rise for the first time since February.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    The unanimous decision is consistent a prolonged period of rate stability.

  • CHILE – Job recovery continued in October  

    Lower unemployment was led by job gains at the margin

  • MEXICO – Further improvement in October’s trade balance  

    Manufacturing exports surpassed pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – GDP recovery confirmed in 3Q20  

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing output

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: not the end of the easing cycle  

    Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath was the dissenting vote.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in 3Q20  

    Still retail sales remain below pre-outbreak levels.

  • MEXICO – 3Q20 Inflation Report: slightly higher inflation for 2021, but additional rate cuts are sti  

    Doubts over how persistent is the recent fall in inflation.

  • MEXICO – Sharp improvement of external accounts in 3Q20  

    The improvement in the current account balance was supported by the trade balance of goods.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded in 3Q20  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12% for this year, but the risks are tilted to the upside

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in 1H Nov inflation, linked to “El Buen Fin”  

    Core goods non-food inflation slowed down amid Mexico’s black Friday

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus fell again in October  

    We recently revised our trade surplus forecast down to USD 15.0 billion

  • ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected primary deficit in October  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 6.9% of GDP this year, up from 0.4% in 2019.

  • PERU – GDP rebounds in 3Q20  

    We expect GDP to fall by 12.6% in 2020

  • PERU – GDP rebounded in 3Q20, amid narrowing current account deficit and deteriorating fiscal balanc  

    Final domestic demand recovery is supported by public and private demand

  • CHILE – Consumption leads activity recovery in 3Q20  

    Monetary and fiscal stimuli and individual liquidity injections would consolidate the recovery ahead.

  • CHILE – Near-balanced current account in 3Q20  

    Going forward, the consolidation of an activity recovery would lead to gradually wider current account deficits

  • COLOMBIA – Gradual activity recovery initiated in 3Q20  

    Despite the loosening of mobility restrictions over the course of the quarter, subnormal activity endured

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Strong sequential rebound in activity in 3Q20  

    Tax collection improved in 3Q20 in line with economic activity.

  • PERU – GDP proxy posted a solid recovery in 3Q20  

    Non-natural and natural resource sectors recovered further in September

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The central bank will maintain its expansionary bias in monetary policy  

    The closure of borders during tourist season will hamper the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Somewhat more pragmatic   

    The government has made a slight shift toward orthodox economic policies

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive economic recovery in 3Q20   

    The reopening of the economy, improving private sentiment and significant monetary stimulus would sustain the recovery process

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: The end of the easing cycle  

    We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat

  • COLOMBIA – Mild trade deficit correction in September, as commodity drag persists  

    Milder import declines suggest a gradual domestic demand recovery is underway

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in October  

    Inflation was markedly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.1%.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a pause, not the end of the easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: An earlier-than-expected new president  

    Heightened political turmoil amid market-unfriendly measures

  • MEXICO – Sharp industrial production recovery in 3Q20  

    Industrial production recovery is driven by the manufacturing output

  • MEXICO – Inflation advanced further in October  

    We now expect inflation at 3.9% for yearend 2020

  • CHILE – Copper exports led to another wide trade surplus in October  

    The economic reopening and significant stimuli in place should moderate the trade surpluses ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Downside inflation surprise in October  

    Muted inflationary pressures and a gradual activity recovery support a prolonged period of rates on-hold

  • MEXICO – Internal demand continued recovering in August  

    Still, internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • CHILE – Large upside inflation surprise in October  

    Inflation will likely end the year close to the central bank’s 3% target

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Improved outlook, but rates likely to stay low  

    The average policy rate would be marginally higher than the October median analyst expectations

  • Copom Minutes: stable rates, as risks net out  

    We see the minutes as consistent with our view that the committee will leave the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, until late 2021.

  • CHILE – Activity improvement continued in September  

    GDP sits around 7% below the level prior to the pandemic, recovering from the cycle low of -16.2% in May

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No reason to adjust expansionary stance  

    Flexibility on the unconventional measures will depend on possible financial market volatility ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Employment recovering in 3Q20  

    While the labor market is recovering, numerous uncertainties point to a gradual improvement ahead

  • CHILE – Participation and job gains at the margin signal labor market recovery underway in 3Q20  

    Lingering economic uncertainty would contain the pace of the recovery ahead

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP rebounded in 3Q20  

    Activity recovery is driven mainly by the industrial sector

  • MEXICO – Broadly stable fiscal balances as of the 3Q20  

    The MoF deteriorated slightly their fiscal balance estimates for 2020

  • CHILE – Strong activity to close 3Q20  

    With the economic reopening consolidating, as health indicators remain controlled, the activity recovery is expected to persist ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Decision: The easing cycle has likely ended  

    Developments on the global front highlight that significant uncertainty persists

  • MEXICO – Another large trade surplus in September  

    The improvement in the trade balance is mainly supported by manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Activity recovery continued in August, but at a slower pace  

    Industrial output is recovering at a faster pace than services sector

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in August  

    The easing of distancing measures supported the recovery

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