Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • COLOMBIA – Controlled inflation in November as shocks start to unwind  

    So far, only a mild pass-through from the depreciation of the Colombian peso has materialized

  • CHILE – Still well-behaved inflation in November  

    Tradable prices are starting to push inflation up

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 3Q19  

    Uncertainties facing the economy are weighing on investment

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: High inflation forecast bodes caution  

    Rate moves will depend on the evolution of activity, the labor market, exchange rate and inflation expectations

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable for some time  

    An uncertain inflation path amid opposing pressures inspired caution

  • CHILE – Stark retail sales contraction, while outlook is bleak  

    With consumer confidence at historic lows and the labor market set to loosen, consumption will slow significantly ahead

  • PERU – Inflation surprises to the upside in November, but remained low  

    Headline and core annual inflation remained practically unchanged

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 3Q19  

    A wide CAD would leave the Colombian peso vulnerable to the domestic uncertainties.

  • CHILE – Worst activity performance since global financial crisis  

    Despite falling activity, FX volatility will get in the way of rate cuts this month.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market weakness persists in October  

    Rising unemployment rate and a possible labor market reform are key discussion points in the current social protests

  • CHILE – Labor market weakening begins  

    The greater Santiago data better reflects the impact of recent events.

  • CHILE – Large manufacturing drop in first major protest-affected data print  

    Record-low business confidence and weak activity point at no recovery of growth next year.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: a gradual easing cycle  

    Strong divisions within the board remain.

  • MEXICO – Stable trade balance in October  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighing on manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and higher short-term core inflation  

    Core inflation projection shows a delay in its deceleration trend, compared to the past inflation report

  • ARGENTINA – Back to recession in 3Q19  

    We revised our GDP forecast down to a contraction of 2.9% for this year (from -2.5% in our previous scenario).

  • MEXICO – Above market expectations retail sales in September  

    At the margin, retail sales improved on a monthly basis, but momentum was soft in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Annual GDP contracted in 3Q19  

    Past GDP revisions show the economy was in a mild technical recession in 1H19

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) remained narrow in 3Q19  

    Net direct investment was enough to cover the CAD

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated slightly, with core slowing down gradually  

    Inflation came in broadly in line with market expectations.

  • PERU – GDP improved in 3Q19, while fiscal and external deficits remained narrow  

    Final domestic demand improved in 3Q19, supported by a recovery in private demand and public consumption

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in October  

    Larger-than-expected trade surpluses over the last few months led to an upward revision of our forecast for 2019.

  • CHILE – Large current account deficit in 3Q19  

    Domestic demand wekaness, the exchange rate adjustment and some global recovery will favor the external account adjustment in Chile

  • CHILE – Growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Drivers of growth in the quarter will likely fade in coming quarters.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable activity dynamics in 3Q19  

    Robust investment and consumption will drive growth of 3.3% this year (2.6% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening exports amid solidifying imports widen trade deficit in 3Q19  

    Robust domestic demand amid weak global activity suggests the current account deficit will remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Lower than expected headline inflation in October  

    Exchange rate controls have helped to moderate inflation in the basket of goods.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cut 25-bp the policy rate in another split decision  

    Marginal changes to the statement, with a dovish tone

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Second round  

    The Frente Amplio won in October, but the opposition joins with an eye on the second round.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Central Bank has completed easing cycle  

    Central Bank kept policy rate unchanged in October

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In the midst of uncertainty  

    We believe the output gap would widen further, justifying lower rates

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Industrial production improved, but momentum was weak  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighting on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • CHILE – Higher-than-expected October inflation  

    A widening output gap would likely keep demand-side inflationary pressures contained ahead

  • MEXICO – CPI remained stable, while core inflation slowly declines  

    Core inflation slowdown increases the odds of Banxico frontloading the easing cycle

  • CHILE – October trade deficit as protests halt activity  

    Domestic uncertainty would lead to negative effect on import dynamics, while exports could benefit from improving global sentiment

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment recovered, but momentum is still weak  

    Construction investment supported the recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Higher inflation in October, but stable core  

    Unwinding of supply-side shocks, a negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would aid the convergence towards 3% next year.

  • CHILE – Disappointing retail sales in September  

    With consumer confidence falling, credit growth slowing and supply-side shocks affecting operations, consumption is set to slump further.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity ahead of protest effect  

    With activity set to slump in 4Q19, growth this year is likely to come in closer to 2% (2.2% previously expected)

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No game changer  

    Stable rates remain the status quo

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Staying on hold and wrapping up the reserve accumulation program  

    The board continues to see that risks are balanced for inflation.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market data in 3Q19  

    Weakness signs in the labor market mean robust consumption is not guaranteed

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Public Finances supported by one-off revenues  

    The MoF increased the expected use of the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Milder manufacturing bounce-back in September  

    We expect Imacec growth of 3.6% in September

  • CHILE – Labor market looked rosy in 3Q19  

    Risks to the unemployment rate are tilted to the upside given the recent events

  • MEXICO – Weak 3Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    Services, the largest sector of the economy, slowed down in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improvement moderated in 3Q19  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Retail sales improved in August, but momentum is soft  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation stood practically unchanged, with core slowing down gradually  

    Headline inflation stood close to Banxico’s central target

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in August  

    We expect activity to weaken further as the October presidential elections approach.

  • MEXICO – August GDP improved, but momentum remained soft  

    Services and manufacturing sectors decelerated, while mining and construction output recovered

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 25-bp cut, more to come  

    The board left the door open to increasing the size of the monetary stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in September  

    Exports picked up, amid sluggish imports.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Fiscal impulse  

    We have adjusted our fiscal deficit projection to 2.3% of GDP (from -1.5%).

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in August  

    Solid import growth and a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Elections in sight  

    Available surveys point to two rounds of voting as the most likely scenario.

  • ARGENTINA – Further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We don´t expect more fiscal consolidation ahead.

  • ARGENTINA – As anticipated, inflation spiked in September  

    Disinflation is likely to be slow and bumpy.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive activity in August  

    Surprisingly robust private consumption means growth this year could exceed our 3% call.

  • PERU – Economic activity recovered in August  

    Recovery in economic activity was supported by an improvement of the natural resources sector.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production surprised to the upside in August, but trend remains weak  

    Industrial production improved supported by a recovery in construction and mining output, but momentum remained soft

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: a still cautious forward guidance  

    The acceleration of the easing cycle will depend on the favorable evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – September CPI fell further, while core inflation slowed slightly  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%

  • CHILE – Large downside CPI surprise in September  

    The inflation data consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75% later this month

  • CHILE – Small trade surplus in 3Q19  

    The trade data is negative for activity, as it points to weak external and internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Annual inflation rises further  

    The unwinding of food price shocks, the still-negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would support disinflation next year

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in July  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE - Upside retail surprise in August  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • CHILE - Larger-than-expected activity boost in August  

    Given the strong August print, growth could come in above our 2.2% forecast this year (4% last year).

  • PERU – September’s inflation decelerated further  

    Inflation crossed below the BCRP central inflation target of 2%.

  • CHILE – Weak August activity, despite mining recovery  

    Below potential growth reinforces the expectation of another rate cut in October.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In observation mode  

    Wait-and-see mode as the board observes the development of high inflation, resilient activity and a moderating labor market.

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp unemployment rise in August  

    We expect the unemployment rate to average 10.3% in 2019, from 9.7% for 2018.

  • CHILE – Unemployment ticks down in August amid fiscal boost  

    As the labor market reflects economic slack, it would bolster views that demand-side inflationary pressures remain low

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery will not last  

    We expect another round of weak activity indicators in the coming months.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected; Two board members vote for a 50-bp cut  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    The decline in imports suggests a new round of weak activity following the primary election.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Another cut as soon as October?  

    Large uncertainty favors more gradual cuts ahead, with incoming data key behind the timing of the next movement.

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts new primary surplus, but further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We recently raised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for this year to 0.8% of GDP.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable, but less expansionary, rates  

    We expect stable rates for the remainder of the year, but the balance of risks titled towards rate cuts rather than hikes ahead.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Public and private investment deteriorated, while private consumption expanded at a soft pace

  • ARGENTINA – Modest GDP growth in 2Q19 will be short-lived.  

    No relief for the economic downturn. We recently adjusted our GDP forecasts down to -2.5% (from -1.4%).

  • COLOMBIA – Wider trade deficit in July  

    A challenging global scenario means Colombia’s external account imbalances are likely to persist

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity likely to contract in 2019  

    We expect a 1.5% GDP contraction this year (from +1% previously).

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: We expect slower growth  

    We have cut our growth projections for Uruguay to zero growth in 2019 (from 0.5%) and 1.5% in 2020 (from 2%).

  • PERU – Economic activity improved in July, but remained weak  

    Economic activity was supported by an improvement in the natural resources sector

  • PERU – BCRP in data dependent mode  

    Further easing will be dependent on incoming information.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail drives July activity  

    Strong activity momentum, along with rising inflation would lead the central bank to keep rates stable

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation resumed upward trend  

    Consumer prices spiked in August after a new depreciation of the peso.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in July  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy seems to be starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Reality check  

    The government took a first step in debt-restructuring direction.

  • MEXICO – 2020 Budget: still responsible fiscal targets, but risk of fiscal slippage is high  

    Growth and oil production projections are on the optimistic side

  • MEXICO – August CPI decelerated, while core inflation remains sticky  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 3.3%

  • CHILE – Weak imports lead to a trade surplus in August  

    Declining manufacturing exports along with weakened consumer and capital goods imports hint at unfavorable activity dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 2Q19  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • COLOMBIA – Downward food inflation surprise in August  

    Inflation, coupled with positive developments on activity and a wide CAD means the policy rate will likely stay at 4,25% in the near term.

  • CHILE – Inflation ticks up in August  

    Despite low core inflationary pressures, headline inflation would end the year close to the target

  • CHILE – July activity in-line with expectations  

    The sluggish start to the year, along with mixed recovery signs, increase the likelihood of growth below our 2.4% call for 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Further, and even aggressive, easing is possible  

    More rate cuts are likely, but the timing and magnitude of additional easing is uncertain

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut, more could come  

    The September’s decision raises the likelihood that the easing cycle extends beyond 100-bps, taking rates below 2.0%.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in July  

    The monthly GDP proxy would grow 3.2% in July, as the boost from manufacturing is partly offset by weaker-than-expected consumption data.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide, but broadly stable, CAD in 2Q19  

    The elevated CAD, rising headline inflation and the weakening of the COP would prevent the central bank from cutting rates in the short-term

  • PERU – Inflation fell further in August  

    Low inflation increases the odds of the BCRP cutting the policy rate further in the short-term

  • CHILE – Private job drag moderates in July  

    As the growth outlook remains uncertain, we expect job growth to remain contained

  • CHILE – Transitorily higher activity in July  

    Seasonal factors and a low base of comparison aided the activity recovery in the month.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market with falling employment  

    The uninspiring labor market dynamics amid pessimistic consumer sentiment mean private consumption would moderate ahead.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: board split also on rate guidance  

    Board members seem to be divided on the monetary forward guidance.

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Inflation Report: lower headline inflation and growth forecasts  

    The easing cycle is set to continue.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance narrowed, supported by weak internal demand  

    Non-oil imports deteriorated, dragged by a sharp contraction in imports of capital goods.

  • MEXICO – Sharp current account balance improvement in 2Q19  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 GDP revised down  

    Mining and construction sectors were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – GDP remained soft in 2Q19, with sound fiscal and external accounts  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside, with core still at a high level  

    Headline inflation decelerated, dragged by non-core prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Mild activity growth in 2Q19  

    There are clear downside risks to our -1.4% GDP growth forecast for this year

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in July  

    The incoming administration will receive lower twin deficits, but the roll-over of debt will be challenging,

  • MEXICO – June’s retail sales deteriorated at the margin  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: We expect less growth  

    The expected recovery for 2H19 would be lower.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Investments would sustain growth  

    New pulp mill boosts growth.

  • CHILE – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity, but to a still-weak pace  

    External headwinds will limit the pace of recovery ahead

  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 2Q19  

    As copper prices stay low and domestic demand remains weak, we see the CAD remaining wide

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: In a split decision, the easing cycle begins  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowdown will not last  

    Inflation is likely to resume an upward trend

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity in 2Q19  

    Local and global headwinds make a sustained recovery in 2H19 unlikely.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Non-natural and natural resources sectors decelerated in 2Q19

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data in June  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With moderating global demand and low oil prices, we expect the CAD to remain wide, at 4.3% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Industrial production fell further in 2Q19  

    Oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: the BCRP cut its policy rate 25-bp  

    The BCRP didn’t close the door for additional cuts, but they are not granted.

  • CHILE – Unsurprising July inflation print favors a 25bp rate cut in September  

    Low core measures and our diffusion index point at contained inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – July’s CPI decelerated, but core remains sticky  

    Core inflation still sticky

  • CHILE – Trade deficit in July  

    Weak global demand amid limited domestic demand would keep the CAD above 3% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in July  

    The intensity and endurance of the supply shocks likely mean that inflation would end this year at 3.75%.

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment deteriorated further in May  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy and transition effect will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – Activity disappoints in 2Q19  

    Despite a more favorable base of comparison and added stimulus measures, sufficient headwinds would limit the recovery ahead

  • COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Standing its ground  

    The board likely needs to see confirmation of weaker activity and a looser global monetary stance, so rate cuts in the near term seem unlikely

  • CHILE – Weak consumption in 2Q19  

    Low private confidence, a volatile external scenario, contained copper prices, and a weak labor market have resulted in an activity slowdown in 1H19

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: A September cut  

    The likelihood of a larger 50-bp cut in September has increased following recent developments

  • PERU – Core and headline inflation decelerated in July, increasing the odds of a rate cut in August  

    Widening output gap conditions curb inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – Weak GDP flash estimate in 2Q19  

    Although sequential GDP improved, economic activity remained soft in 2Q19

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Public Finances consistent with AMLO’s austerity measures  

    The MoF is considering using the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Manufacturing hampers activity in June  

    Poor manufacturing points to weak consumption and investment, in line with our 2,4% growth forecast for the year.

  • CHILE – Underwhelming labor market dynamics in 2Q19  

    Despite stable unemployment, poor quality of job creation and falling participation are risks to consumption growth ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market in 2Q19  

    In 2Q19, the participation rate dropped to the lowest level since 2Q10, containing a further surge in the unemployment rate

  • MEXICO – Weak economic activity in May  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction and mining

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in June  

    The shift in the trade balance is driven by falling imports.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2Q19 supported by weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No signal of a rate cut (yet)  

    Confirmation of weaker-than-expected activity and a the looser global monetary stance needed before lowering rates

  • ARGENTINA – Activity continued to improve in May  

    The negative impact of the severe drought in 2018 is in the past.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in May  

    The real wage bill is a buffer for private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but core remains sticky  

    Headline and core inflation slowed down, remaining below the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in May, despite weakening imports  

    Moderating global demand and low oil prices would keep the CAD wide

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Dovish tone points to September cut  

    July’s decision is in line with our expectation of lower rates (at 2%) by yearend.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Presidential candidates confirmed  

    Daniel Martínez, Luis Lacalle Pou and Ernesto Talvi will be the main contenders in the presidential elections.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: More room for a rate cut  

    We expect a new monetary policy interest rate cut of 25 bps, leaving the rate at 4.5% for the end of the year.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation continued to drop gradually in June  

    Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July

  • COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the upside in May  

    Despite firm readings in May, the economy still faces significant headwinds

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts primary surplus in 1H19  

    Real expenditure cuts continued to support fiscal consolidation.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in May  

    At the margin, oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes confirm a divided board with growing odds of a rate cut in 3Q19  

    The majority of board members are still concerned about the evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – June’s CPI slowed down, but with core inflation accelerating  

    Core inflation still uncomfortable

  • COLOMBIA – Core inflation stable at 3% target in June  

    As supply shocks fade, inflation is likely to retreat towards the central bank’s 3% target

  • CHILE – Low inflation in June  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation

  • CHILE – Weakening external and domestic demand in 2Q19  

    With low global and internal demand growth, the current account deficit is seen staying broadly stable and wide.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand momentum remained weak in April  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – Services leads weak activity in May  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year

  • CHILE – Temporary retail boost in May  

    We expect another below potential Imacec print (monthly GDP proxy) of 2.3% in May (2.1% in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Arguing for stable rates  

    A widening output gap, controlled inflation and loosening global financial conditions will allow for lower rates ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor dynamics deteriorate in May  

    The loosening labor market, amid depressed sentiment point to weak consumption ahead.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing improves, but mining drag returns in May  

    Weaker growth in machinery and equipment manufacturing hints at an investment slowdown.

  • CHILE – Uninspiring labor market in May  

    With the Chilean growth outlook deteriorating, the labor market is unlikely to improve meaningfully.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May, amid weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • ARGENTINA – External deficit correction continues in 2Q19  

    We expect a trade surplus of USD 7.5 billion for 2019

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: A split board votes to keep the reference rate unchanged  

    We expect Banxico to deliver two 25-bp rate cuts in the last quarter of 2019

  • ARGENTINA – Output Rebounded in Early 2Q19  

    We note that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for the year (-1.4%) are still tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in April  

    The solid real wage bill growth has been a buffer for private consumption

  • MEXICO – Economy remained weak in April  

    Services sectors deteriorated further, while manufacturing sector improved somewhat.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Weakening activity  

    We lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.7% from 3% due to the drought and a scenario of decelerating regional and global growth.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Electoral race kicks off  

    We lowered our GDP growth projections to 0.5% for 2019 (from 0.7%) and 1.5% for 2020 (from 2%).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates, but edging towards easing  

    A widening output gap and controlled inflation would likely lead the central bank to cut rates.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No option but to cut  

    Given we hold a less optimistic outlook on growth (and hence subdued inflation ahead), we expect further easing.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation slowed down, but core inflation remains under pressure  

    Headline inflation reached the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Wider-than-expected trade deficit in April  

    Due to the transitory uptick in imports, further widening of the trade deficit is not expected

  • ARGENTINA – New drop in federal primary fiscal deficit  

    We estimate that the 12-month rolling primary deficit fell to 1.6% of GDP from 1.8% in April

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand weakened in 1Q19  

    Public and private spending weakened, while exports decelerated

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to drop at the beginning of the year  

    The decline was in line with expectations.

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in April  

    Economic activity in April was dragged mainly by fishing output

  • COLOMBIA – Slow activity start to 2Q19  

    Weak activity in the first third of the year suggests the impact of weakening global growth could be filtering through to the Colombian

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: rate cuts on the horizon  

    The BCRP highlights softer economic activity

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation declined in May, in line with expectations  

    Lower volatility of the exchange rate and tight monetary policy contributed to a modest disinflation

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained soft in April  

    Manufacturing output momentum improved somewhat

  • CHILE – IPoM de junio: ¿Un ciclo de sólo 50 puntos base?  

    Con balance de riesgos a la baja para actividad, el banco central dejó abierta la puerta a recortes adicionales de TPM

  • CHILE – Inflation Report: Only a 50-basis point cycle?  

    With growth risks that are seen tilted to the downside, the central bank left the door open for additional easing.

  • MEXICO – May’s CPI was below market expectations, but remained high  

    On an annual basis, headline and core inflation decelerated to still-high levels

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: Surprising 50bp rate cut  

    Although the central bank does not signal further rate cuts, we see room for an additional 50bps of easing to 2%.

  • CHILE – Inflation remains low, despite upside surprise in May  

    As oil price gains unwind, while domestic demand growth is restrained, we expect a gradual inflation rise ahead

  • CHILE – Smaller-than-expected trade surplus in May  

    With reduced global demand and low copper prices ahead amid the escalating trade war, there are upside CAD risks

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation ticks up in May, but still under control  

    Manageable inflation and a widening output gap opens the door for the central bank to consider additional monetary easing

  • MEXICO – Weak gross fixed investment in March  

    A recovery of GFI is unlikely to be lasting due to a high uncertainty environment

  • COLOMBIA – Wider current account deficit in 1Q19  

    Amid a challenging global scenario and terms-of-trade that would likely deteriorate, the current account deficit would remain wide this year.

  • CHILE – Weak activity in April  

    Activity in the primary sector is expected to improve ahead but we see clear downside risks to our 3% growth outlook.


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