Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • COLOMBIA – Sluggish trade deficit adjustment in July  

    We expect a current account deficit of 3.0% of GDP in 2018 (3.3% 2017).

  • URUGUAY – A debate on pension system in sight  

    Takeaways from our visit to Uruguay.

  • PERU - Monthly GDP grew at a milder pace in July  

    Natural resources sectors dragged July’s monthly GDP figure

  • PERU - Monetary Policy Decision: BCRP on hold  

    BCRP: economic activity indicators show temporal signs of less dynamism

  • COLOMBIA – Growth recovery consolidating  

    Low inflation, an expansionary monetary policy, improved confidence levels and terms-of-trade would support the recovery ahead

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Aftershocks  

    We revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 1.5% and 1%, down from 2% in our previous scenario.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation Spike in August  

    We see no room to cut the monetary policy rate

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Lower inflation expectations  

    We revised our YE18 inflation forecast downward due to the expected deflationary impact of the border trade.

  • ARGENTINA – Central Bank Keeps Reference Rate Unchanged With a Tightening Bias  

    The central bank noted that it is ready to introduce corrective action, if necessary.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production strengthened in July  

    Industrial production growth was supported by manufacturing sector

  • MEXICO – August annual headline Inflation accelerated, pressured by energy prices  

    Core annual inflation remained unchanged

  • CHILE - Weak mining leads to first trade deficit in two years  

    Weaker primary exports resulted in the first monthly trade deficit in two years.

  • CHILE - Limited inflationary pressures in August  

    The still negative output gap, in our view, will curb price increases.

  • COLOMBIA – Stable inflation in August  

    Stable inflation amid a gradual activity recovery, will justify stable rates for the time being.

  • MEXICO – Investment weakened in the 2Q18  

    Deceleration is consistent with the fading effect of reconstruction efforts

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: On course to hike?  

    The board remains upbeat with the domestic economic outlook

  • CHILE - Inflation Report: Higher rates ahead as output gap closes  

    Rate hikes in coming months are expected, but October could be too son.

  • CHILE - Positive Imacec surprise in July  

    The positive surprise counters recent downside risks.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation expectations deteriorate  

    Sharp increase in inflation and a decline in growth expectations.

  • COLOMBIA – FDI finances larger than expected current account deficit in 2Q18  

    A slower current account correction this year is likely

  • PERU - Annual Inflation decreased in August  

    Core index and food prices decelerated

  • CHILE – Imacec to grow 2.5% in July  

    Growing risks that the monetary policy normalization cycle will start later than the yearend indication

  • COLOMBIA – Public employment supported job market stability in July  

    Stability of the unemployment rate came from a retreat in urban unemployment while the rural print deteriorated.

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate ticks up in July  

    The consolidation of activity ahead will likely lead to further private job growth.

  • ARGENTINA – Fighting market turmoil  

    The government will likely need to speed up the fiscal deficit adjustment.

  • CHILE – Weak Industrial production at the start of 3Q18  

    The activity disappointment, along with elevated global tensions are compatible with stable rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

  • MEXICO – 2Q18 Inflation Report: Inflation forecasts increased, while GDP forecasts decreased.  

    Inflation balance of risks tilted to the upside

  • PERU - Investment recovery boosts growth, without deteriorating fiscal and external accounts  

    Metal prices and macro policies support growth outlook

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit widened in July  

    Deterioration of trade balance is mainly explained by a larger energy deficit

  • MEXICO – We reduced our 2018 growth forecast to 2.0%  

    GDP surprised to the downside in the 2Q18

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit deteriorated in the 2Q18  

    Current account was dragged by a deterioration in the trade, services and net income deficit.

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated in the first half of August, with well-behaved core inflation  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure

  • ARGENTINA – Activity slump in 2Q18  

    We see downside risk to our 0% growth forecast for this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Slower-than-expected adjustment in external accounts  

    We expect a weaker currency and slower internal demand growth to narrow the external account deficit for the remainder of the year.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales accelerated in the 2Q18  

    June’s retail sales figure above market expectations

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to narrow in July  

    Continued efforts to cut expenditures offset weaker revenue performance in July.

  • CHILE – Current account deficit widens in 2Q18 as domestic demand strengthens  

    We forecast a narrow 1.8% of GDP deficit (1.5% last year)

  • CHILE – Investment recovery continues in 2Q18  

    Improved investment and private consumption is encouraging for the sustainability of the recovery

  • Scenario Review - Paraguay: Inflation returns to the center of the target  

    We expect inflation of 4% in 2018 and foresee no changes in the monetary policy rate

  • Scenario Review - Uruguay: Deteriorating fiscal accounts  

    The fiscal deficit accelerated so far this year making the 2019 fiscal target harder to achieve

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Minutes: On-Hold, but still mindful of risks  

    Balance of risks for inflation remains unfavorable

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation remains under pressure  

    Scheduled regulated price hikes and a weaker ARS will not ease inflation in August.

  • PERU - Economic activity accelerated in the 2Q18  

    Monthly GDP proxy below market expectations in June

  • COLOMBIA – Expected activity improvement in 2Q18  

    We expect a growth recovery to 2.7% this year, from 1.8% in 2017

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit correction slows in 2Q18  

    Robust import growth was a drag to the improvement of external accounts in 2Q18.

  • COLOMBIA – Strong growth in 2Q18  

    We expect GDP growth of 2.8% YoY in 2Q18 (from 2.2% in 1Q18).

  • ARGENTINA – New measures to Deal with a New Shock  

    The central bank increased its policy rate by 500-bps

  • MEXICO – Industrial production sequential growth weakened in 2Q18  

    All industrial sectors weakened on a quarter-over-quarter basis

  • PERU - Monetary Policy Decision: BCRP on hold as expected  

    No rate moves in sight.

  • MEXICO – Annual Inflation accelerated in July, with well-behaved core inflation  

    Transitory factors lift inflation in July

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Sticking to Ipom  

    Recent activity and inflation data are unlikely to trigger rate hikes ahead of schedule

  • CHILE - Contained core inflation in July  

    Looking ahead the still negative output gap will curb price increases

  • ARGENTINA – A new policy rate, with no room to cut it  

    The Copom decided to set its 7-day bill (Leliq) as the new monetary policy reference rate

  • CHILE - Higher energy prices trim trade surplus in July  

    Higher oil prices and recovering internal demand will likely lead to a wider current account deficit this year

  • CHILE - Recovery of non-mining activity consolidates in 2Q18  

    Monetary stimulus amid increased confidence will continue to aid the activity recovery this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Food drags inflation down in July  

    Despite the lower than expected inflation in July, core inflation remains high

  • MEXICO – Investment weakened, while consumption strengthened  

    Investment deceleration is associated with the fading effect of reconstruction works

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No rate moves in sight  

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  • ARGENTINA – Central Bank survey: outlook for inflation and growth deteriorates further  

    We think the increase in inflation expectations leave s no room for monetary easing in the short-term

  • MEXICO – Central Bank leaves the policy rate unchanged, amid a stronger Mexican peso  

    A successful renegotiation of NAFTA likely means an end to the tightening cycle

  • CHILE - Strong commercial activity in 2Q18  

    Recovering activity is unlikely to trigger rate hikes before yearend, however, as trade war risks are high.

  • PERU - Inflation increased in July  

    Food prices, electricity costs and public transportation exert upward pressure on July’s print

  • MEXICO – June’s Public Finances: on track to reach 2018 fiscal targets  

    Primary surplus and nominal deficit with investment improved

  • CHILE - Improved waged private job growth in 2Q18  

    Improving private employment provides confidence over the consumption recovery

  • CHILE - Manufacturing production grows strongly in 2Q18  

    The monetary stimulus and low inflation amid increased confidence will aid the activity recovery this year.

  • MEXICO – Growth moderates at the margin in 2Q18  

    At the margin GDP weakened, within deceleration was broad based

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No surprise as rates remain steady  

    We do not see the board in any haste to modify the policy rate

  • MEXICO – Trade balance deteriorated somewhat in June, dragged by the energy deficit  

    The breakdown of exports and imports weakened in June

  • COLOMBIA – Stagnant job creation in 2Q18  

    Improving growth and sentiment will aid a labor market recovery ahead

  • MEXICO – May’s Retail sales accelerated in May  

    Real wage bill is supporting retail sales

  • ARGENTINA – Trade Deficit Narrowed Significantly in June  

    Imports decreased across most categories, in line with a weaker currency and softer activity

  • ARGENTINA – Activity deteriorates sharply in May  

    The activity outlook for the coming months is gloomy

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: Steady despite increased volatility  

    The tightening cycle would start by the end of the year as trade conflict tensions diffuse

  • MEXICO – Inflation came in above market expectations in the first half of July  

    Food and energy prices exerted upward pressure

  • MEXICO – The economy lost pace in May dragged by industrial sectors  

    GDP proxy grew 1% qoq/saar in May from 1.9% in April

  • ARGENTINA – Monetary Policy Report: Central bank points to strengthen the inflation targeting scheme  

    The central bank will supplement the monetary policy rate with a close look at monetary aggregates.

  • COLOMBIA – Larger-than-expected trade deficit in May  

    As one-off import effects fade, the trade balance correction would continue in coming months

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit remained unchanged in June but met target agreed upon with IMF  

    The treasury is committed to a primary deficit of 2.7% of GDP this year

  • ARGENTINA – Higher inflation in June due to a weaker currency  

    Inflation will likely remain under pressure in 2H18.

  • PERU - GDP surprised to the upside in May  

    Economic activity on track to accelerate substantially in the 2Q18

  • PERU - Monetary Policy Decision: No rate moves in sight  

    Closing the doors for further rate cuts

  • MEXICO – Industrial production lost momentum in May  

    Construction and mining dragged industrial production

  • COLOMBIA – Solid activity data in May  

    Recovering activity has diminished the appeal of additional monetary easing

  • Scenario Review - Uruguay: Higher inflation, lower growth  

    The peso continued to weaken.

  • Scenario Review - Paraguay: Growth remains solid  

    GDP grew 4.1% YoY in 1Q18

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated in June  

    Energy prices inflation’s main driver, with well-behaved core prices

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Wait-and-see mode  

    A cautious stance on global events, upbeat growth outlook and unanimous decision to keep rates stable is in line with the end of the easing cycle.

  • CHILE – Elevated trade surplus in 2Q18  

    The CAD will remain at a low and controlled 1.8% of GDP (1.5% last year).

  • COLOMBIA – Still low inflation in June  

    Inflationary pressures are increasing at the margin

  • CHILE - Inflation normalization en route  

    Low base effects are not the sole reason behind higher inflation.

  • MEXICO – Private consumption weakness in April is likely temporary  

    Private consumption weakened in April

  • MEXICO – Investment losing momentum  

    Investment loosing strength

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Minutes: doors open both for further hikes and policy rate maintenance  

    Next rate decision is open

  • CHILE - Stronger-than-expected activity in May  

    The strong start to the year puts an upside bias to our 3.8% growth forecast.

  • ARGENTINA – Central Bank Survey: new deterioration in inflation expectations  

    Participants expect inflation to hit 30% yoy by December 2018.

  • CHILE - Robust commercial activity in May  

    We expect IMACEC to expand 4.0% year over year in May.

  • PERU - Inflation overshoot expectations in June  

    Increase in Excise Tax exert upward pressure on June’s print

  • CHILE - May activity remains upbeat  

    Firm industrial production data points at a robust Imacec print for the month

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: In neutral  

    The unanimous decision likely signals the end of the easing cycle

  • CHILE - Mixed labor market signals persist  

    Labor market data to motivate the central bank to retain the current monetary stimulus for now

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In transition  

    The odds the central bank starts a tightening cycle by the end of this year are high.

  • COLOMBIA – Low quality job growth persists  

    A labor market improvement in coming months would limit the calls for additional monetary easing

  • ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in April due to the impact of the drought  

    We expect economic activity to slow down in this quarter and in 3Q18 on a sequential basis.

  • ARGENTINA – Current account deteriorated further in 1Q18  

    The current account deficit was financed in excess by portfolio investments

  • ARGENTINA – Central bank kept monetary policy rate unchanged  

    We do not rule out a change in the monetary policy instrument by the central bank

  • ARGENTINA – Trade deficit hits new record high despite lower imports  

    The poor performance of exports adds downward risk to our forecast

  • MEXICO – The momentum of activity weakened a bit in April  

    GDP proxy fell 0.6% from the previous month

  • MEXICO – Inflation remained stable in the first half of June  

    Energy prices are exerting upward pressure

  • MEXICO – Not the last hike of the cycle  

    We see the policy rate peaking at 8%.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand accelerated significantly in 1Q18  

    Consumption and investment strengthened

  • COLOMBIA – Low trade deficit in April  

    Dynamic external demand, still weak domestic growth and higher terms of trade will lead to further improvement in the trade balance

  • ARGENTINA – GDP growth to decelerate further, as fiscal consolidation continues  

    We see downside risk to our 1.5% growth forecast for 2018, despite the favorable carry-over.

  • COLOMBIA – Medium-Term Fiscal Plan highlights fiscal challenges  

    We see the need for additional fiscal measures, likely in the form of a new tax reform.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity recovery turns additional easing unlikely  

    The economic recovery is gaining traction, lowering odds of further easing

  • PERU - GDP accelerated substantially in April  

    Non-natural resource sectors are on stronger footing.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation Outlook Deteriorates Despite Positive Headline CPI Surprise in April  

    Continued weakening of the ARS will likely keep inflation at a high level

  • Scenario Review - Paraguay: The central bank curbs currency depreciation  

    No surprises for inflation in 2018

  • Scenario Review - Uruguay: Expecting slower growth  

    We reduced our YE18 and YE19 GDP growth forecasts to 2.5%, from 3% in our previous scenario

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Report: Tightening Cycle Edging Closer  

    Odds that the central bank starts tightening cycle by the end of this year are rising

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate move and a neutral stance  

    Monetary stimulus to stay near current levels until inflation convergence process proceeds

  • ARGENTINA – Central bank left monetary policy rate unchanged.  

    A rate hike is not completely off the table in the near term.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production lost momentum in April  

    The impulse from construction moderated

  • CHILE – Inflation remained low in May  

    Tradable inflation is gradually becoming less of a drag

  • PERU - Monetary Policy Decision: On-hold, as expected  

    We do not foresee more rate cuts

  • CHILE – Smaller trade surplus in May  

    Investment recovery on track following encouraging capital imports

  • MEXICO – Downward trend of inflation moderated in May  

    We have increased our inflation forecast for 2018, mainly due to a less favorable exchange rate

  • COLOMBIA – Unsurprising inflation in May  

    With low inflationary pressures, we expect one more rate cut to 4.0% before the cycle ends.

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment and private consumption gained traction in 1Q18  

    Investment accelerates in spite of uncertainties, and consumption is supported by real wage bill

  • CHILE – Mining dampener in April  

    Core activity on an upward trajectory

  • ARGENTINA – Central Bank Survey: Inflation expectations on the rise  

    The inflation expectation for 2018 jumped to 27.1%, from 22.0% in the April Survey.

  • CHILE – Stronger-than-expected commercial activity in April  

    We expect the GDP proxy IMACEC to expand 6,2% YoY in April.

  • CHILE – Highlights of President Piñera’s first State of the Nation  

    We expect no reduction in corporate taxes in the short-term.

  • COLOMBIA – Gradual current account narrowing in 1Q18  

    Higher terms of trade and external demand will likely aid additional improvement this year

  • CHILE – Manufacturing leads industrial activity in April  

    Mining growth moderated, as the benefit of a low base of comparison fades

  • CHILE – Mixed labor data in April  

    Labor data highlight the recovery process is not exempt of risks

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Minutes: Keeping all options open  

    Risks (NAFTA, elections, tighter international financing conditions) have intensified

  • MEXICO – Inflation Report: Monitoring risks, amid better-than-expected inflation  

    NAFTA, elections, and more restrictive international financial conditions pose risks

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market weakness endures  

    Weak job growth composition shows labor market weakness

  • PERU - Growth accelerated in 1Q18, amid improving public finances and small current account deficit  

    Metal prices, macro policies, and political conditions support growth outlook

  • MEXICO – Narrower current account deficit in 1Q18; Solid momentum of exports in April  

    Smaller net income payments and narrower trade deficit drove the improvement of the CAD

  • MEXICO – Inflation increased slightly in the first half of May  

    LPG and gasoline exerted upward pressure

  • ARGENTINA – Further trade deficit deterioration  

    The slowdown in exports is mostly attributed to lower soy shipments

  • MEXICO – We revised up our growth forecast for this year, to 2.3%  

    GDP surprised to the upside in 1Q18, in spite of uncertainties

  • ARGENTINA – Monetary Policy Decision: High interest rates in the near future. Activity starts to wea  

    The central bank expects core inflation to remain at high levels in May

  • MEXICO – Retail sales accelerated significantly in 1Q18  

    Stronger real wage bill is boosting retail sales

  • CHILE – Stronger than expected activity start to 2018  

    With this strong start, we now see growth of 3.8% in 2018 (3.6% previously)

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In observation mode  

    We see a short-term bias towards cuts, although any move is unlikely in the upcoming months.

  • CHILE – Low current account deficit and rising FDI in 1Q18  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain narrow this year

  • Scenario Review - Uruguay: Currency under pressure  

    The pressure on the Argentine peso introduces additional risk for the UYU

  • MEXICO – Reference rate on-hold as expected and tone of statement unchanged in spite of rising risks  

    NAFTA, elections, and US monetary policy risks did not change communication

  • Scenario Review - Paraguay: New administration, same direction  

    We expect market-friendly policies to continue

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation, while fiscal consolidation continues  

    Recent weakening of the ARS is likely to keep inflation high in the near future.

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed bag for activity in 1Q18  

    Recovery is not absent of risk

  • PERU - GDP proxy gained significant traction in 1Q18  

    Metal prices and macro policies are boosting activity

  • COLOMBIA – Activity advances in 1Q18  

    Sentence: We expect GDP to expand 2.3% YoY in 1Q18 (1.6% in 4Q17).

  • MEXICO – Industrial production showed signs of recovery in 1Q18  

    Construction picked up significantly in 1Q18

  • COLOMBIA – Smallest 1Q trade deficit since 2014  

    A higher energy balance explains the trade deficit narrowing

  • PERU - Monetary Policy Decision: Board keeps rate unchanged, as expected  

    Policy bias sentence was tweaked (signaling more intention to stay put)

  • MEXICO – Inflation decreased substantially in April  

    Inflation at the margin is running below the 3% target

  • CHILE – Still-low inflation despite April surprise  

    In a context of still-low inflation, we see no rush for rate hikes by the central bank

  • ARGENTINA – Central bank kept reference rate. Treasury goes to the imf  

    The discussions with the IMF is a risky bet for Macri from a political point of view

  • MEXICO – Private consumption grew at a moderate pace in February  

    Stronger real wage bill will support private consumption

  • CHILE - Large trade surplus persists in April  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain contained this year

  • COLOMBIA – Stable inflation, in spite of large upside surprise  

    Food and housing prices explain the upside surprise in the month.

  • CHILE - Recovery platform in place  

    Imacec grew 4.6% YoY in March, above expectations.

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment accelerated in February  

    Investment was likely strong in 1Q18

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In data dependent mode  

    Favorable condition will provide room for additional monetary easing.

  • ARGENTINA – Taking the bull by the horns?  

    The central bank hiked the reference rate by 675 bps to 40% in a new inter-meeting decision.

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: Comfortable hold  

    With a broad-based activity recovery and still low inflation, the board is in no rush for rate hikes

  • CHILE - Firm commercial activity persists in 1Q18  

    Low inflation, expansionary monetary policy and a recovering labor market will aid consumption this year

  • ARGENTINA – Another 300-bp rate hike to tame the peso  

    The decision followed a 300-bp hike last week.

  • CHILE - Widespread growth recovery in 1Q18  

    Improved manufacturing and utilities bodes well for the overall growth recovery expectation

  • CHILE - Salary-led job growth in 1Q18wth in 1Q18  

    Robust growth of salaried jobs is favorable for consumption

  • MEXICO – GDP growth gains traction in 1Q18  

    Service sectors are robust, and industry begins to recover

  • COLOMBIA – Unemployment stabilizes in 1Q18  

    Improvement in the labor market is key for the expected recovery this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Pressure on reserves trigger 300-bp reference rate hike  

    The central bank increased its policy rate (7-day repo) by 300-bps in an inter-meeting decision, to 30.25%.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: More easing in April  

    More easing is likely in a context of a strong exchange rate and a negative output gap.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance brings good news for activity  

    Exports and imports are growing at a strong pace

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Minutes: Further rate hikes unlikely, but no signs of rate cuts  

    Rate moves unlikely in the near term.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade deficit narrowed between 4Q17 and 1Q18  

    The rebound in exports is supported by grain sales, but also manufacturing.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales rebounded in February  

    Sequential growth of retail sales is catching up with real wage bill

  • ARGENTINA – Robust Activity in February  

    Growth was broad-based in the first months of the year.

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further in the first half of April  

    Inflation at the margin likely decreased below Banxico’s 3% target in April

  • ARGENTINA - Central bank leaves monetary policy rate unchanged, maintaining vigilant tone  

    The central bank specified that it could increase interest rates depending on the high-frequency CPI tracking it receives in the coming weeks.

  • MEXICO – Activity surprised to the upside in first months of 2018  

    Both industrial production and services sectors gained momentum

  • COLOMBIA – Sluggish trade deficit adjustment  

    The deficit in the trade balance widened at the margin

  • Scenario Review - Paraguay: Inflation continues to moderate  

    Consumer prices moderated after an acceleration at the end of 2017 and early 2018

  • Scenario Review - Uruguay: Inflation decelerates again  

    Annual inflation broke the upward trend in March, supported by the appreciation of the UYU against the USD.

  • ARGENTINA – Monetary Policy Report: Central Bank might Raise Interest Rate  

    We believe that the odds of a hike are significant

  • PERU - Activity is firming up gradually  

    Construction is outperforming other sectors in the economy

  • COLOMBIA – (Uneven) activity improvement in February  

    Core retail activity remains weak, while the industry improvement advances.

  • ARGENTINA – Positive news on the fiscal front  

    The adjustment of the fiscal accounts in 2018 is driven by increased tax collection and cuts in primary expenditures.

  • PERU - Monetary Policy Decision: On-hold, but with flexibility to act  

    Likely done with the easing cycle.

  • ARGENTINA – Core inflation posted a strong acceleration in March  

    The inflation environment is likely to remain challenging.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: Banxico pauses the tightening cycle, as expected  

    The tightening cycle is unlikely to continue.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production gained momentum in February  

    Construction activity has surprised to the upside

  • ARGENTINA – Central bank left monetary policy rate unchanged, but maintained its tightening bias  

    The central bank argued, once again, that the recent spike in inflation is temporary.

  • CHILE - Large trade surplus in 1Q18  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain contained this year

  • MEXICO – Disinflation is gaining traction, reinforcing our call of no rate hike in April  

    Inflation at the margin is running at low levels

  • CHILE - Inflation returns below the target in March  

    Seasonal increases in services could not make up for the low inflationary pressures.


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