Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • MEXICO – Still positive momentum in April´s GDP  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.5% for 2021

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Persistently high inflation leads to split decision to hike rates  

    The central bank is more cautious on the inflation outlook.

  • MEXICO – Large inflation upside surprise in 1H June  

    Core annual inflation accelerated driven by other services and food prices

  • ARGENTINA – Robust GDP growth in 1Q21  

    Given the higher-than-expected carryover, there are upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of 6.0% for 2021.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Starting to discuss rate hikes  

    Swifter recovery means current stimulus levels no longer necessary.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales momentum remains positive  

    Large annual growth in April reflects a favorable base effect.

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit at the start of 2Q21  

    Some trade deficit narrowing is likely ahead as the effect of protest action and mobility restrictions transitorily weaken import dynamism.

  • ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected trade surplus in May due to strong imports  

    We revised our trade surplus projection to USD 14 billion for 2021, down from our earlier estimate of USD 17.0 billion.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected current account surplus in 1Q21  

    We lowered our forecast for the current account surplus to 1.5% of GDP in 2021 (from 2.0% of GDP)

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal accounts continued to improve in May  

    We estimate that the twelve-month primary deficit fell to 3.4% of GDP, from 6.5% in December 2020.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand recovered in 1Q21  

    The reopening of the economy supported the recovery of internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Fiscal plan unlikely to prevent further downgrades  

    The pandemic continues to delay fiscal consolidation in the short-term

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Struggling with the second wave  

    Containment of the outbreak is key for the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Still-High COVID-19 contagion despite fast vaccination progress  

    Maintaining the investment grade

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowed again in May   

    We forecast 47% inflation for this year, with risks tilted to the upside

  • COLOMBIA – Large annual activity increase in April, despite sequential fall  

    Protest action will contain activity dynamics in May

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal deterioration takes its toll  

    A downgrade by Fitch in the coming weeks (also to below investment grade) is possible

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: On the verge of a new default  

    Our baseline scenario assumes an agreement with the IMF after the mid-term elections, adjusting macro policies somewhat.

  • MEXICO – Still positive momentum in industrial production  

    Industrial production was supported by a favorable base effect on an annual basis

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Time to Hike  

    The policy rate would remain expansionary over the two-year horizon to consolidate the recovery

  • MEXICO – Another upside surprise in inflation in May  

    Upside pressure to inflation came mainly from other services and non-core food prices

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Decision: Liftoff near  

    Risks are in favor of several rate hikes before the close of the year

  • CHILE – Inflation pressures consolidate in May  

    The consumption-led economic recovery will likely lead to yearend inflation above the 3% target

  • COLOMBIA – Food prices pull inflation up in May  

    Core inflationary pressures are normalizing more slowly amid a gradual labor market recovery

  • MEXICO – Solid internal demand expansion in March  

    Internal demand was supported by the easing of social distancing measures

  • CHILE – Narrower trade surplus in May  

    Going forward, the domestic demand recovery, boosted by increased support measures, will see a further trade surplus narrowing

  • MEXICO – 1Q21 Inflation Report: higher inflation forecasts increase odds of interest rate hikes  

    Upward revisions in inflation projections increases the odds of Banxico hiking rates

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 1Q21  

    A rising CAD increases odds of an earlier start to the rate hike cycle

  • PERU – Inflation in May surprised to the upside  

    Higher food and energy commodity prices exerted upward pressure to inflation

  • CHILE – Stronger-than-expected IMACEC in April  

    A mild sequential drop shows the economy has adapted to operating under restricted conditions

  • CHILE – Monetary policy meeting minutes: Waiting for the June IPoM  

    The June IPoM would signal rate hikes are coming this year.

  • CHILE – Sequential retail and manufacturing contractions in April due to lockdowns  

    We expect the April Imacec to increase 11% YoY.

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate in April  

    With mobility restrictions still in place during May, the pace of the labor market recovery ahead is set to be slow.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: odds for rate hikes are increasing  

    Most Board members considered the balance of risk for inflation bias to the upside

  • MEXICO – GDP recovered further in 1Q21  

    Services and construction sectors supported the recovery in the quarter

  • MEXICO – A temporary sequential narrowing of the current account surplus in 1Q21  

    There was a deterioration in the trade balance in 1Q21 due to supply shocks

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in April’s trade balance  

    Vehicle exports recovered in April after the sector was affected by supply shocks in 1Q21

  • MEXICO – Another upside inflation surprise in 1H May  

    The reopening of the economy is exerting upside pressure in core services inflation.

  • PERU – Activity deteriorated on sequential basis in 1Q21, amid narrowing current account surplus and  

    Some tightening of social distancing measures affected activity at the margin in 1Q21

  • MEXICO – Another solid expansion of retail sales in March  

    Retail sales are now above pre-pandemic levels

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to narrow in April  

    We expect the contraction of the fiscal deficit to slow down ahead due to tougher mobility restrictions.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity extended recovery into 1Q21  

    We expect a sequential decline in 2Q21 due to the effect of the drought on agricultural output and a new round of mobility restrictions

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in April despite rising imports  

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  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 1Q21   

    Recovering FDI profits, a larger service deficit, and milder trade surplus supported the return to a deficit.

  • CHILE – GDP increases 0.3% in 1Q21, pulled up by durable consumption  

    While risks tilt to the upside, higher political uncertainty and its potential impact on confidence and investment, keep us from changing our growth forecast.

  • PERU – GDP deteriorated in 1Q21 at the margin  

    On an annual basis, the monthly GDP in March was boosted by a favorable base effect

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit at the end of 1Q21  

    Dynamic imports are offsetting export gains amid a low base of comparison

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity to start 2021  

    The implied statistical carry over exceeds our current 5.0% for 2021.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation surpasses expectations once again in April  

    Core inflation was higher than the headline reading.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Upbeat activity likely to lead to rate hikes before yearend  

    We see the policy rate ending 2021 at 0.75%, but the odds that the central bank hikes by more are increasing.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: unanimously on hold, amid deteriorating balance of risks for infl  

    The Board now sees the balance of risk for inflation tilted to the upside

  • COLOMBIA – Positive activity surprise at the end of 1Q21  

    The data points at a 6.2% YoY growth for the coincident activity indicator ISE (to be released tomorrow)

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in March’s industrial production  

    Negative supply shocks in manufacturing output seem to have faded away in March

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Fiscal outlook deteriorates  

    We revised our forecast for the nominal fiscal deficit up to 5.0% of GDP, from 4.0% in our previous scenario.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The second wave continues to hit hard  

    We forecast 3.5% GDP growth this year, but the pandemic is still the main risk to our projection

  • MEXICO – Mixed internal demand figures in February  

    Internal demand indicators remain below pre-pandemic levels

  • CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in April  

    Transitory factors (pension payouts, global oil prices) would lead to an inflation acceleration in the short-term.

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April  

    High copper prices would contain the current account deficit this yea

  • MEXICO – Unfavorable base effect contributes to pressure April’s inflation  

    Inflation was slightly above market expectations.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Uncertain election outcome  

    Fragmented Congress likely to make governability a challenge

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in April  

    COP dynamics and disruptions to food supply are upside risks

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal prospects dim  

    Tax reform dilution prevents significant fiscal consolidation and credit rating downgrades become more likely

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: No political room to adjust  

    Difficulties in advancing with fiscal consolidation

  • A tight contest for a qualified majority   

    The microeconomic policy direction continues to generate uncertainty.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Faster recovery expected, but stimulus to stay  

    The central bank noted that fiscal consolidation is key to maintain risk premia under control and guarantee capital inflows.

  • CHILE – Robust March GDP growth, despite sequential drop  

    Annual growth was pulled up by commerce and services amid a low base of comparison

  • CHILE – Activity temporarily retreats in March at the margin  

    The low base of comparison would lead the monthly GDP index (IMACEC) to increase 5% YoY.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Majority supports rates on hold  

    Despite a bullish activity outlook, appeal for further easing is waning.

  • CHILE – Mild labor market gains in 1Q21, prior to lockdown  

    With the loosening of mobility restrictions by the end of April, the labor market recovery would likely gather speed from May onwards

  • MEXICO – GDP slowed down in 1Q21  

    Supply disruptions in the manufacturing sector affected 1Q21 GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market improved in 1Q21  

    Mobility restrictions in April and likely May would slow the labor market recovery ahead

  • MEXICO – Slight deterioration in fiscal balance  

    Public debt decreased amid a higher GDP base

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in March’s trade balance  

    Manufacturing exports recovered, while non-oil imports posted a solid growth.

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in February’s monthly GDP  

    Services sector deteriorated despite the easing of social distancing measures from the second half of February

  • MEXICO – Solid retail sales growth at the margin  

    The easing of social distancing measures supported the expansion of retail sales

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H April  

    Annual inflation reflects an unfavorable base effect due to lower gasoline prices a year ago

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus recovered at the margin, supported by agricultural exports  

    Robust export growth in 1Q21 was due to higher commodity prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in February, as expected  

    Looking ahead, we expect a sequential rebound of activity in March

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit narrowed in 1Q21  

    The central bank remained the main source of financing for the Treasury.

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in February  

    Recovering domestic demand is restraining the pace of the trade correction

  • COLOMBIA – A 2.0% tax reform submitted  

    Negotiations with Congress are likely to yield a watered-down version of the bill.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reinforcing rates on-hold this year  

    The cost of signaling rate hikes only in 2022 is low given adverse short-term dynamics.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation comes in significantly above expectations in March  

    The anti-inflationary toolkit is reduced to tighter controls, with an eye on the October legislative election.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity rebounds in February  

    We expect the Colombian economy to bounce back with growth of 5.0% this year, after shrinking 6.8% in 2020

  • PERU – Weak GDP in February, despite upside surprise  

    The monthly GDP was less affected than expected by the retightening of social distancing measures.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New COVID-19 cases spike, while vaccination remains slow  

    We have adjusted our GDP forecast for this year down to 3.5%, from 4% previously.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Vaccination advances, but COVID-19 cases hit records  

    Vaccination is progressing, although cases are peaking.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Hold the line  

    Macroeconomic policies will likely lead to increased distortions

  • MEXICO – Temporary supply disruptions in manufacturing output  

    A global supply disruption of semiconductors and temporary gas shortages affected manufacturing output

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Tight presidential race   

    Polls suggest six candidates could slip through in the first two places and then participate in the second round

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Time to talk taxes  

    A structural tax reform is a key prerequisite to maintain investment grade rating

  • MEXICO – Energy prices pressured inflation further in March  

    Core annual inflation also accelerated.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: most board members see decision to stay on-hold as a pause  

    The majority of Board members considered this is not the end of the easing cycle

  • CHILE – Another downside inflation surprise in March  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • CHILE – Imports improvement trims trade surplus in March  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovered in January  

    Still, internal demand indicators remain below pre-outbreak levels

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation moderated in March, normalization ahead expected  

    Limited inflationary pressures will favor maintaining a significant monetary stimulus in place

  • CHILE – Recovery continued in February prior to March shock  

    Strong fundamentals support growth of 6.5% this year.

  • CHILE – Weak activity in February  

    Sequential gains remain in line with a gradual recovery scenario

  • MEXICO - Stable fiscal accounts in 2021  

    Improved economic outlook and higher oil prices support fiscal accounts but weak oil production is still a risk

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate ticked up in February  

    A transitory deterioration of labor market indicators is expected in March amid renewed quarantine measures.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Improved outlook supports rate hikes in 4Q21  

    We now expect the tightening cycle to begin in 4Q21.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild labor market recovery in February  

    The reintroduction of mobility restriction in March would likely result in another transitory loosening of the labor market.

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp increase of activity in January  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021, largely driven by a high statistical carryover (5.0%).

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable at 0.5% for several quarters  

    The central bank is downplaying market expectations of rate hikes later this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade balance posts sequential improvement in February  

    We expect higher commodity prices and import controls to boost the trade surplus this year

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Still on-hold, but now unanimously  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • MEXICO – Temporarily lower manufacturing exports lead to narrower trade balance  

    We expect the trade surplus to narrow slightly in 2021 relative to 2020

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: on hold, as expected  

    Odds of further easing are low.

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP was soft in January  

    Manufacturing output and services sector are a temporary drag to activity

  • MEXICO – Retail sales slowed down in January  

    The retightening of social distancing measures affected retail sales

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of March  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP recovery in 4Q20, following easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021.

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit fell in February  

    Tax collection increased in real terms in the quarter ended in February, led by higher export taxes

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in 4Q20  

    External demand is the main driver of the recovery

  • CHILE – Strong end to a dismal 2020 raises upside risks to our 6.5% growth forecast for this year  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit at the start of the year  

    With restrictions lifted and business sentiment improving, imports are expected to resume their recovery path

  • CHILE – Large current account surplus in 2020  

    A flexible exchange rate, the domestic demand slump, and favorable terms of trade led to a 1.4% of GDP surplus in 2020.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Vaccination campaign has started  

    We see downside risks to our 3% GDP growth forecast.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild activity decline at the start of 2021  

    With most restrictions lifted in February, the activity hiccup is expected to be transitory

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: COVID-19 red alert   

    Downside risks to our 4% GDP growth projection

  • MEXICO – Soft industrial production in January  

    Worldwide temporary shortage of semiconductors is likely affecting manufacturing output

  • ARGENTINA – Still-high inflation in February  

    Our inflation forecast for the year remains at 50%

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: No rush  

    The agreement with the IMF looks increasingly distant

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal adjustment postponed  

    Fiscal consolidation is the key macro risk to monitor in the near term

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Slow start to vaccination campaign  

    More populist measures emerged from Congress as general elections near

  • MEXICO – February inflation driven by energy prices  

    Core inflation stood practically unchanged.

  • COLOMBIA – Still-low inflation in February  

    With the economic recovery advancing, to be further aided by surging oil prices, additional rate cuts are unlikely

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in February  

    Inflationary pressures moderated and core inflation remains at historical lows.

  • CHILE – Copper exports continue to boost trade balance  

    The wide balance came despite imports gaining momentum at the margin.

  • MEXICO – Internal demand slowed down in December  

    A negative base effect (Mexico’s black Friday) affected sequential private consumption.

  • MEXICO – 4Q20 Inflation Report: core inflation forecast path unchanged for 2021  

    The central bank also expects a better economic outlook for 2021 and 2022.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild CAD narrowing in 2020  

    We see stability for the CAD at (a wide) 3.4% of GDP this year

  • CHILE – Sequential GDP recovery continues  

    A pesar de la contracción interanual, mejoras secuenciales persistentes son un buen augurio para las perspectivas de recuperación.

  • PERU – Inflation in February surprised to the downside  

    Inflation remains above the BCRP’s central target of 2%

  • CHILE – Sluggish labor improvement in January  

    The economic reopening since January would bolster employment dynamics

  • MEXICO – Trade surplus narrowed at the margin  

    U.S. economic strong recovery and a soft internal demand will support the trade surplus in 2021

  • COLOMBIA – Unfavorable labor market dynamics in January  

    A still fragile labor market was shaken by the new round of mobility restrictions.

  • CHILE – Transitory activity slowdown in January  

    IMACEC would contract 2% YoY in January.

  • MEXICO – GDP recovered further in 4Q20  

    External demand is benefiting the recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus in January  

    We forecast a trade surplus of USD 17 billion for 2021, up from USD 12.5 billion in 2020

  • MEXICO – Wide current account surplus in 2020  

    Trade balance was supported by a strong recovery in external demand, poor internal demand and a weak currency

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: we now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut  

    Tightening of external financial conditions likely to limit further easing

  • MEXICO – Higher energy prices drove inflation in the first half of February  

    Annual core inflation remained persistent

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery in 4Q20 did not prevent a sharp GDP contraction last year  

    We forecast GDP growth of 5.5% for 2021.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in December  

    The deterioration reflects tighter social distancing measures and a negative base effect

  • ARGENTINA – Slight reduction of primary fiscal deficit in January  

    We forecast a reduction in the primary fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity collapsed in 2020 despite fiscal stimulus, helping a current account balanc  

    Final domestic demand was supported by easing of distancing measures and fiscal stimulus

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Slight activity contraction in 2020  

    For 2021, we estimate growth of 4% due to the normalization of activities.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Positive signs for inflation  

    We expect a weak labor market to reinforce disinflation this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Milder-than-expected GDP decline in 4Q20  

    The positive impact of monetary stimulus, the vaccination program, and higher oil prices would aid an activity bounce back this year

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity dynamics at the close of 2020   

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.4% in 4Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – High inflation despite intervention on prices  

    Warning sign for the government as it seeks to reduce inflation, with an eye on the legislative election.

  • MEXICO – Better than expected Industrial production in December  

    Industrial production is closer to pre-pandemic levels driven by external demand

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Low inflation warrants prolonged monetary stimulus  

    Elevated risks and changes at the board make the path for rates less certain.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: resuming rate cuts  

    We expect further easing over the next two meetings

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Significant support required, but not forever  

    With signs that the worst of the crisis has passed, more dedication towards the medium-term challenges would be required

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Facing a second wave   

    The vaccination campaign started

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Surfing the summer  

    The government will likely try to preserve the current precarious macro equilibrium.

  • COLOMBIA – Modest trade deficit correction in 2020  

    The large trade deficit is in line with a current account deficit of 3.4% of GDP last year

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in January’s inflation  

    Inflation was driven mainly by an increase in energy prices

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus to start 2021  

    The anticipated domestic economic recovery and increasing income deficit would be contained by high copper prices this year.

  • CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in January  

    With output gap still wide, similar inflation dynamics are likely to persist for most of the year.

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in January, but core inflation fell  

    Limited core price increases continue to contain headline inflation.

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovery continued in November  

    However, internal demand indicators remain far below pre-pandemic levels

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Limited inflationary pressures favor prolonged stimulus  

    The technical staff sees a rate path somewhat below the median analyst outlook and the previous report’s implied path.

  • PERU – Upside surprise in January’s inflation  

    The headline inflation figure was driven by higher energy and food prices

  • CHILE – Services-led upside activity surprise in December  

    Statistical carryover to aid robust growth bounce back this year

  • MEXICO – Narrow fiscal balances in 2020 despite a health crisis  

    Public debt increased in 2020 due to a lower GDP base effect

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Divided board holds rates at 1.75%  

    In spite of the split vote, there is consensus within the board that the monetary policy stance must remain expansionary.

  • CHILE – Labor market slows in December  

    Moderating labor market gains come amid renewed health restrictions

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail activity in December  

    The GDP proxy would contract 3.5% in December

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market recovery stalled in December  

    Urban labor dynamics deteriorated as mobility restrictions were renewed.

  • MEXICO – Stronger-than-expected 4Q20 GDP flash estimate  

    GDP likely fell by 8.5% in 2020

  • MEXICO – Large trade surplus in 2020  

    We expect the trade surplus to narrow gradually in 2021 relative to 2020

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Extending the credit facility  

    Unanimous support to continue to signal low-for-long rates

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in November.  

    Further easing of distancing measures and the “Buen Fin” boosted retail sales.

  • ARGENTINA – Back to a trade balance deficit in December  

    .We expect higher soy prices to boost the trade surplus this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity continued to recover in November  

    We revised our GDP forecast for 2020 to -10% from -10.5%, given the better-than-expected performance in the final months of last year.

  • MEXICO – 1H Jan inflation surprised to the upside  

    Higher energy prices and persistent core inflation were the main drivers

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit hit 6.5% of GDP in 2020  

    The size of the fiscal consolidation for this year is likely to be discussed with the IMF.

  • COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in November  

    Milder import declines suggest a gradual domestic demand recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Activity gradually advanced in November  

    Despite the downside activity surprise, we still expect GDP to drop 7% in 2020.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Closed borders  

    For 2021, we maintain our growth forecast of 3.0%, with downside risks

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New fiscal responsibility bill  

    For 2021, we expect a broad-based growth of 4.0%.

  • PERU – Solid sequential GDP growth in November  

    Non-natural resources sector supported November’s activity expansion

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Contained inflation creates scope for additional monetary easing?  

    A slow rollout of the vaccination program amplifies downside risks to activity.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation spiked in December, as expected  

    Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Ghosts still linger  

    Higher soy prices unlikely to help an unbalanced economy

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: A help from higher copper prices   

    More populist initiatives from Congress

  • A delicate start to 2021  

    A swift vaccination rollout could compensate a weaker start to 2021.

  • MEXICO – Further recovery of internal demand in October  

    Internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – Industrial production posted a solid sequential growth in November  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • CHILE – Inflation ends 2020 at 3.0% target  

    The strong CLP performance and the re-introduction of mobility restriction measures would contain pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Inflation fell in December despite core inflation increase  

    Non-core food prices exerted downward pressure, which was partly offset by a rebound in core inflation as the “Buen Fin” effect faded away.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: the easing cycle will likely resume soon, but there are risks  

    Deputy Governor Heath and Esquivel were the dissenting votes.

  • CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2020, helped by terms of trade  

    Dynamic consumption and recovering oil prices would lead to a narrower trade surpluses ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise to end 2020, but core inflationary pressures limited  

    Renewed mobility restrictions and significant COP appreciation will keep inflationary pressures contained at the start of 2021.

  • CHILE – Labor market improvement continued in November  

    The recovery at the margin is reflecting the economic reopening and economic stimuli.

  • CHILE – Activity returns to growth in November  

    While commerce will remain dynamic, tighter mobility restrictions mean that the recovery path is set to be uneven.


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