Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • ARGENTINA – Economic activity rebounded in July  

    We expect the positive trend to consolidate with the easing of lockdowns in August and September

  • MEXICO – Strong improvement in August trade balance  

    The manufacturing sector is driving the economic recovery

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP recovered further in July   

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Easing cycle extended, but likely concluded; FCL withdrawal anno  

    A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    Imports continued to contract as internal demand remained weak

  • MEXICO – Another higher-than-expected inflation number in 1H September  

    Core goods inflation continues to be at a high level

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: an expected 25-bp rate cut before an easing cycle pause  

    Further monetary easing unlikely at least until the end of this year.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in July  

    Still, retail sales are 12% below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – GDP collapsed in 2Q20 on negative effects of lockdowns  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit worsened in August but at a slower pace  

    Our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit this year stands at 6.9% of GDP (from 0.4% in 2019),

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand collapsed in 2Q20  

    Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in July  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Shock magnitude calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Despite the less pessimistic outlook, ample stimulus is set to remain in place

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rose in August  

    Headline inflation increased in August, in line with expectations and led by core items.

  • PERU – Economic recovery continued in July  

    Natural and non-natural resources sectors are supporting the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Slower-than-expected activity recovery in July  

    We revised our forecast for the July monthly coincident indicator (ISE) to a decline of 9.2%, only a modest improvement from the 11.1% drop in June.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered further in July  

    The manufacturing sector is the main driver of the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit and inflation  

    The budget bill foresees a reduction of the consolidated fiscal deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2021.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit gradually  

    The budget bill aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP in 2021, from an estimated 7% for this year.

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in August  

    Core goods inflation accelerated further

  • MEXICO – 2021 Budget: betting on responsible public finances, but risks remain  

    Optimistic oil production targets and GDP growth estimates risks missing fiscal targets

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in August  

    A wide output gap and relatively stable currency ought to limit price increases going forward

  • CHILE – Unsurprising August inflation  

    The economic reopening and oil price recovery will counter dampened domestic demand, preventing inflation falling significantly further

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in August  

    Signs that import dynamics are improving would contain further surplus widening

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Open for business  

    The central bank enters a wait-and-see mode, assessing the evolution of the economy while leaving the door open for further easing.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: A chance to turn the page  

    Argentina will seek an agreement with the IMF following a successful debt restructuring with private creditors.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Policy uncertainty originating in Congress  

    Fiscal accounts deteriorate amid COVID-19 shock

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Slow output gap narrowing, despite more optimistic growth forecasts  

    The macroeconomic scenario evolvement continues to be determined by the development of Covid-19 and containment measures

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrowing continues in 2Q20  

    Weak internal demand, recovering terms-of-trade, and a swifter global rebound will aid some further CAD narrowing

  • PERU – Below target inflation in August  

    Headline inflation stood below the central bank target for twelfth consecutive month

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reaffirming low-for-long (but not forever) rates and no government  

    Government bond purchases could be used to address liquidity issues, but not boost aggregate demand.

  • CHILE – July activity confirms recovery is underway  

    Improvements on the health front, along significant monetary and fiscal impulses, are contributing to the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Still unfavorable labor market dynamics in July  

    As the mandatory quarantine was extended until the end of August, the labor market recovery is set to be gradual

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A cut before a pause  

    The board is likely to evaluate how the economy progresses, while keeping the door ajar for further easing

  • CHILE – Milder-than-expected activity drop in July  

    With the economy reopening, cash transfers and pension withdrawals materializing, the activity recovery advancing.

  • CHILE – Weak labor market endures in July  

    Historic job losses, record low participation and reduced work hours are consistent with only a gradual activity recovery scenario

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: further (limited) easing contingent on data  

    While two members advocated for further easing, other two seem more cautious

  • MEXICO – Strong trade balance in July  

    Manufacturing exports recovered at a faster pace than non-oil imports

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 Inflation Report: weaker activity outlook, with temporarily higher inflation  

    Inflation forecasts increased for 2020

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but recovery started in June  

    Still monthly GDP is far below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in July  

    Trade surplus widened in July, on weak imports.

  • MEXICO – Zero current account deficit in 2Q20  

    Net portfolio flows and FDI deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in 1H August  

    Core goods CPI still growing above Banxico’s inflation target of 3%

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in June, but momentum is still weak  

    Retail sales are still far below pre-covid levels in February

  • PERU – Deteriorating fiscal accounts and narrow CAD in 2Q20, amid a GDP collapse  

    Higher public debt expected for 2020 amid weak GDP and large fiscal stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to widen in July  


  • ARGENTINA – Sharp decline in economic activity in 2Q20  

    The lockdown hurt all sectors in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Historic domestic demand slump in 2Q20  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • CHILE – Large current account surplus in 2Q20  

    Lower oil prices, weaker domestic demand and a mining export increase favored the trade balance in 2Q20

  • PERU – Monthly GDP showed recovered in June by less than expected  

    However, the economy is still far below pre-outbreak levels in February

  • COLOMBIA – Record GDP drop in 2Q20  

    Dynamics within the quarter are in line with a gradual recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Small trade deficit in June  

    With oil prices recovering, further narrowing of the trade deficit is likely ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Sequential activity recovery in June  

    Downbeat private sentiment, still-low terms-of-trade, significant job losses and elevated uncertainty point to a gradual recovery process ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation was below market expectations in July  


  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: preparing for reducing the easing pace  

    We still expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% before the end of 2020

  • MEXICO – Industrial Production’s recovery started in June  

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Central bank to change monetary policy instrument  

    The monetary policy committee has started a process to change the monetary policy instrument.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Harsher-than-expected impact from the lockdown  

    We adjusted our GDP growth forecast down to -3.5%, from -2.6% in our previous scenario

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in July  

    Imports remain weak as domestic demand weakens and uncertainty restrict investments

  • CHILE – Limited inflationary pressures in July  

    Falling service prices reflective of weak domestic demand

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated in July  

    Core goods CPI continues to grow above Banxico’s target of 3%

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: A harsh reopening  

    The door to further easing is not closed, but upcoming rate decisions are set to be more data-dependent

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Political confrontation resumes  

    Contagion reaccelerated in Peru as the economy reopens

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Debt restructuring is no guarantee of a brighter outlook  

    The next stop is a renegotiation with the IMF

  • MEXICO – Internal demand remained weak in May  

    May’s figures show a slower deterioration compared to last month

  • COLOMBIA – Milder-than-expected disinflation in July  

    The unwinding of government measures and reopening of the economy would contain downside pressures.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Low-for-long rates  

    An expansionary monetary policy stance is justified by the possibility of a 10% GDP contraction

  • CHILE – Activity ends 2Q20 on a (marginally) better note  

    As the country partially opens and the evolution of the coronavirus consolidates a favorable trend, an activity recovery is expected ahead

  • CHILE – Still weak June activity points to 14.6% yoy GDP contraction in 2Q20  

    With some easing of lockdown measures unfolding, some gradual economic recovery is anticipated

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty over recovery  

    We expect the policy rate to remain at 0.5% and a boost to the QE measures in response to any significant deterioration of conditions.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Low policy rate level inspires caution over future moves  

    As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery and inflation unfold

  • CHILE – Sharp labor market deterioration in 2Q20  

    As economic weakness endures and lockdown measures gradually lift, the labor market is likely to remain weak

  • MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H20, despite austerity  

    The MoF reduced its 2020 GDP forecast to -7.4%

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP collapsed in 2Q20  

    Industrial sector was affected the most by COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market unravels in 2Q20  

    The extension of the lockdown to the end of August hints at only a slow labor market recovery ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in 2Q20  

    Hefty contraction of imports in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in June  

    A slower recovery in imports relative to exports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – No activity recovery as of May  

    Monthly GDP in May surprised to the downside

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in the first half of July  

    Core goods and gasoline prices exerted upward pressure to headline inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continues to worsen in June  

    Expenditure increased in June, driven by social and energy subsidies.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity posted a sequential rebound in May  

    The sequential rebound in May does not preclude a generalized sharp decline in activity in the quarter.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales remained weak in May  

    Distancing measures still affected private consumption during May

  • COLOMBIA – Narrower trade deficit in May as imports collapse  

    With low terms-of-trade and a fragile global demand, Colombia’s external imbalances are set to persist

  • PERU – Monthly GDP remained weak in May  

    A large fiscal stimulus and an expansive monetary policy will support the recovery

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Keeping the pace of asset purchases  

    The board remains ready to intensify the monetary impulse and support financial stability.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation showed a larger-than-expected increase in June  

    We expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak activity in May, despite sequential improvement  

    Despite some upbeat signs, significant job losses and high uncertainty mean the activity outlook remains unfavorable

  • MEXICO – May’s Industrial production still affected by distancing measures  

    IP weakened further on a monthly basis, albeit less than last month

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in June  

    Headline inflation was pressured by core tradables and gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: Slowing down the pace of cuts?  

    Differences within board members over the easing pace may be emerging

  • CHILE – Mild inflation drop in June  

    A strained domestic demand and the stabilization of the CLP would lead to contained inflationary pressures going forward.

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus boost in 2Q20  

    With lockdown measures persisting into July and job shedding continuing, import demand will likely stay suppressed in the near-term

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Peso bond issuance in the international capital markets  

    The transmission of COVID-19 remains under control, allowing the country to progress toward the new normal.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation levels bottom out  

    The continued decline in activity led the government to increase the fiscal package.

  • COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise in June  

    A downbeat activity outlook, swiftly loosening labor market and diminishing inflation expectations point to subdued inflationary pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Internal demand collapsed in April  

    Weak internal demand in April reflects the first full month of lockdown

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Scrapping fiscal limits to face the crisis  

    Larger fiscal and monetary support are necessary to contain the activity collapse

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: Downside surprise in activity  

    Expansionary monetary policy for long

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: The art of postponing  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9%, from -9.1% before.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: It’s all about  

    A stronger-than-expected activity decline called for a boost to stimulus measures, but uncertainty complicated the specificities

  • CHILE – Activity collapse deepens in May  

    Mining activity still lifted growth in the month.

  • PERU – Lower headline inflation in June  

    Lower gasoline and agro prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Another sharp narrowing of current account deficit in 1Q20  

    We forecast a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP this year.

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening at a faster-than-expected pace  

    The unemployment rate will likely exceed 10% on average this year, peaking in coming months.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing weakness deepens in May  

    The sectorial activity for May points to the GDP proxy (IMACEC) contracting 15.5% (14.1% fall in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Changing pace with a 25-bp cut, liquidity measures adjusted  

    We see the policy rate reaching 2%, but risks are tilted towards lower rates.

  • COLOMBIA – Further labor market loosening in May  

    The unemployment rate is to average 16% this year (10.5% last year), but risks tilt to the upside if the economic recovery in 2H20 underwhelms.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity collapsed in April  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9% for this year, from -9.1% before

  • MEXICO – Temporary deterioration of the trade balance  

    Exports and imports remained weak in May amid the Outbreak

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP collapsed in April  

    Broad-based deterioration in economic activity amid the outbreak

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus continued to widened in May  

    Imports continued to slide.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales fell sharply in April amid COVID-19  

    Private consumption determinants also weakened

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Cycle goes on  

    Another 50-bp cut in the next meeting is likely

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of June  

    Upside surprise came from core non-food items

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal balance deteriorated further in May  

    There is the risk of a wider primary deficit than the 4.8% that we currently expect for this year

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to contract at the beginning of the year  

    We expect activity to show a bigger contraction in 2Q20 due to the impact of social distancing measures.

  • Monthly GDP drops 8.4% mom/sa in April  

    PM-Itaú posts the sharpest decline in the series

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 1Q20 amid COVID-19  

    Private demand deteriorated, showing the first negative effects from the outbreak

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit despite weakened imports  

    Weak imports is consistent with a significant consumption and investment contraction ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: A deeper decline amid greater uncertainty  

    Rates seen staying at 0.5% until mid-2022

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates low for longer, liquidity and QE measures boosted  

    Preventing widespread bankruptcies and job losses justifies the recent boosting of fiscal and monetary support.

  • COLOMBIA – Fiscal rule suspended to allow for greater crisis response  

    While the latest developments allow for short-term fiscal relief, a tough fiscal consolidation program would be needed ahead.

  • PERU – Monthly GDP collapsed in May  

    Non-natural resource sectors were affected the most

  • CHILE – Two-year USD 12 billion cross-party fiscal plan to tackle pandemic  

    The enhanced fiscal response would help avoid a more long-lasting impact from the coronavirus pandemic on the economy

  • COLOMBIA – Activity collapsed in April  

    With lockdown measures persisting through May, and only partially eased in June, the activity slump will be sharp in 2Q20

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rate remained stable in May  

    Headline inflation was unchanged in May, helped by price freezes and caps

  • MEXICO – Industrial production collapsed in April  

    Industrial production deterioration reflects a full month of lockdown amid the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Restrictions on economic activity are lifted  

    We project a GDP drop of 3.6% for this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Easing the lockdown  

    We forecast a 2.6% drop in GDP for this year.

  • MEXICO – Inflation rises by less than expected in May  

    The downside surprise in inflation was driven by a contraction in core goods ex-food prices

  • COLOMBIA – Significant disinflation in May  

    As inflation drops swiftly and the activity slump consolidates, the central bank will likely deem it is necessary to persist with monetary easing

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in May  

    As job losses rapidly rise, import dynamics are set to remain weak ahead

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Debt and health  

    Argentina defaulted again.

  • CHILE – Inflation falls in May  

    A swiftly loosening labor market and low oil prices lowered inflationary pressures

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Still at a standstill  

    More stimulus likely required to aid recovery, but rating risk hovers

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q20  

    Falling internal demand and a weaker currency will likely lead to a gradual CAD narrowing this year

  • CHILE – Record activity decline in April  

    With the health situation deteriorating in May, mobility restrictions were extended, hence activity momentum is set to worsen before it gets better

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Another 50bp rate cut, but no unanimity  

    We see room for lower rates, but the board would prefer not to move more aggressively than already done.

  • CHILE – Private consumption slump leads activity decline in April  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • CHILE – Historical job destruction unfolded in April  

    Labor market loosening would persist after April as social distancing measures continued and growth prospects faltered.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market hard-hit in April as dual shocks strike  

    Additional labor market loosening ahead is in line with a significant consumption decline this year.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: still no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    Most members pointed out the importance of acting with prudence

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 Inflation Report: higher inflation in 2020 consistent with a cautious easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to continue a cautious easing cycle

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp deterioration of fiscal deficit in April  

    We expect fiscal accounts to continue to deteriorate in 2Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in April  

    We forecast a surplus of USD 17.5 billion this year, as measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 will take further a toll on activity and imports

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 GDP deteriorated, but surprised to the upside  

    Industrial and services sector started showing the negative effects from the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Strong current account result in 1Q20  

    Net portfolio flows deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance temporarily deteriorated in April  

    Weak exports and imports reflected the full COVID-19 effect in the economy.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in March  

    Already weak retail sales started reflecting the negative effects from COVID-19

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprise to the upside in the first half of May  

    Headline inflation rebounded driven by core food and gasoline prices

  • PERU – Narrow CAD, amid weak GDP and deteriorating fiscal accounts in 1Q20  

    Fiscal accounts to deteriorate further due to a large fiscal stimulus and weak economic outlook

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Preparing additional quantitative stimulus  

    A larger external drag and recovery doubts consolidate the view that significant monetary stimulus is required to combat the shock

  • CHILE – Current account balance correction in 1Q20  

    Going forward, the expectation of a rising trade surplus, given a domestic demand implosion, would support a swift CAD narrowing

  • CHILE – Consumption drag continues in 1Q20, further deterioration expected ahead  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties would lead to a 3.7% contraction this year

  • COLOMBIA – Weak 1Q20 GDP: a preview of things to come  

    The central bank will continue enhancing liquidity measures to ease the functioning of the financial system and to protect business operations and employment.

  • PERU – March’s monthly GDP contracted sharply amid the outbreak  

    The deterioration in economic activity was generalized.

  • MEXICO – On going 50-bp easing cycle  

    Balance of risk for inflation remains uncertain

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in 1Q20  

    Despite weak internal demand and a weaker currency, we expect a gradual narrowing of the current account deficit given the developments in the oil market.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity decline in March  

    How economic activity unfolds will depend on the duration of the lockdown, its effect on the labor market and corporate balance sheets

  • ARGENTINA – COVID-19 caused disinflation in April  

    Still, we note that monetary financing of a growing fiscal deficit tilts risk to the upside.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Smart quarantine  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Change of plans  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated amid COVID-19  

    Manufacturing output is the most affected sector by the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Hard hit  

    The economy is on the receiving end of two shocks, one from the coronavirus and the other from oil market developments.

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: A bold fiscal and monetary response  

    Strict measures to contain the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Social distancing with creditors?  

    We now forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020, from -6.4% in our previous scenario.

  • CHILE – Inflation moderates amid coronavirus shock  

    Low oil prices and a widening output gap mean inflation would remain contained going forward.

  • MEXICO – Weak internal demand before COVID-19  

    Uncertainties over domestic policy direction will also keep denting investment outlook.

  • CHILE – El choque del coronavirus y menores precios internacionales de petróleo favorecen a la balan  

    Las medidas de control del coronavirus, el sentimiento privado bajo y el deterioro del mercado laboral, llevarán a un débil dinamismo de las importaciones.

  • CHILE – Coronavirus shock and lower oil prices boost trade balance in April  

    As social distancing measures stay in place, private sentiment drops and the labor market loosens, import dynamics will remain weak going forward.

  • MEXICO – Lower headline and core inflation  

    Fall in gasoline prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Low-for-long rates, with additional stimulus on hand  

    Given the economic outlook, we expect rates to remain at their technical minimum throughout the year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation eases in April  

    Core inflation is slowing fast at the margin

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Large output gap calls for significant monetary easing  

    Given the deterioration of the economic outlook, another 50bps cut this month is likely

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: easing cycle with prudence  

    Board members seem to agree on the need for lower rates

  • CHILE – Sharp activity decline in March  

    Economic data is only starting to reflect the impact of the shock, with activity set to get worse before it gets better.

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate rises 1pp in 1Q20 amid start of coronavirus shock  

    Weaker job gains and steady labor force growth led the loosening of the labor market

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP in 1Q20 weakened amid COVID  

    Economic growth deteriorated in 1Q20 from an already weak growth pace in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp labor market deterioration in 1Q20 amid lockdown  

    Labor market loosening hints at considerable consumption fall in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Abrupt retail decline in March as virus strikes  

    The monthly GDP proxy is set to contract 1% YoY in March.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A consecutive 50-bp cut  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • ARGENTINA – New drop in activity in February  

    Coincident indicators point to a sharp contraction in March.

  • MEXICO – Further trade balance improvement in March  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated in March amid disruption in global supply chains

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP deteriorated in February  

    Weak momentum in monthly GDP before COVID-19

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation falls sharply in the first half of April, while core inflation decelerat  

    Inflation was dragged mainly by a fall in gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in February  

    Retail sales growth pace was weak before COVID-19

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus despite decline in exports  

    We expect a wider trade surplus this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit increased, affected by COVID-19  

    We expect a dramatic deterioration of the fiscal accounts in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Gradual rate cuts in emergency meetings  

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  • COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in February  

    The evolvement of external imbalances will depend on the opposing forces of low oil prices and slumped domestic demand

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Emphasizing low-for-long message  

    While rates would remain at their technical minimum throughout the year, we cannot rule out the use of additional forms of monetary tools.

  • COLOMBIA – Strong activity prior to dual shock  

    Despite strong activity at the start of the year, dual shocks would have a significant impact on the economy and lead to a growth contraction.

  • ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation picked up  

    The rise in headline inflation was driven by food and education services.

  • PERU – Decent monthly GDP growth before COVID-19  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply amid coronavirus outbreak

  • MEXICO – Weak industrial production even before coronavirus outbreak  

    Coronavirus outbreak is set to deteriorate activity sharply

  • CHILE – Signs of moderating inflationary pressures in March  

    We see inflation falling closer to the 3% target in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation slowed down in March  

    Lower inflation driven by a fall in gasoline prices

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in 1Q20  

    With the Chilean economy all but closing down in late March and April, import dynamics will deteriorate further in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Food drives inflation in March  

    Inflation remains near the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range (2%-4%), but core measures are closer to the 3% target.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: cautious tone, but further easing is likely  

    Despite the cautious tone, we expect Banxico to reduce monetary policy further in the upcoming months.

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