Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • PERU – Soft 2019 GDP, amid narrow fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by weak gross fixed public investment

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus remained solid at the beginning of the year  

    Weak imports sustained a wide trade surplus in January.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP contraction in 2019  

    Economic activity marked two years of recession.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit in 2019 widened to a three-year high  

    We expect the CAD was close to 4.5% of GDP last year (3.9% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Growth in 2019 was the highest in 5 years  

    Growth in 4Q19 was broadly in line with 3Q19 as slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty keeps the board in wait-and-watch mode  

    Subtle signal that further loosening could once again become part of the discussion

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Board unanimously vote for another 25-bp rate cut  

    Deputy Governor Esquivel is no longer backing a 50-bp move.

  • COLOMBIA – Another strong year for retail, but can it endure?  

    Despite protests losing momentum by December, activity at the margin continued to weaken, hampering the carry-over for 2020

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation under control  

    Below the inflation target

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Fiscal accounts deteriorated  

    The incoming government proposes a fiscal rule to ensure the sustainability of public finances.

  • CHILE – Inflation surprise as pass-through pressures materialize  

    Reflecting restrained domestic demand pressures is the near historical low non-tradable inflation

  • CHILE – Large trade balance result to start 2020  

    Still double-digit falls in consumer and capital goods imports underscore the weak domestic demand

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report – Narrower output gap could justify a modest policy tightening  

    Despite a more gradual disinflation path now expected, inflation is viewed to be under control

  • CHILE – Activity bounce-back exceeds expectations in December  

    Expansionary monetary policy and fiscal stimulus would aid an activity recovery from 4Q19

  • CHILE – Bitter sweet labor market data in 4Q19  

    We expect the full impact of the recent events on the labor market to be reflected in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    Inflation balance of risks remains symmetrical.

  • COLOMBIA – Some labor market positives in 4Q19  

    If the labor market shows some improvement ahead, the central bank would not need to increase the monetary stimulus.

  • CHILE – Positive activity surprise to end a dismal year  

    Despite positive signs that activity is improving, downbeat private sentiment would lead to below potential growth this year

  • MEXICO – Weak 4Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    The economy likely contracted 0.1% in 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates on hold amid uncertain inflation path  

    Our expectation of rates cuts depends on the impact of the Chilean peso on inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2019  

    Weak non-oil imports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in November  

    The real wage bill continues to expand at a solid pace

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in November  

    Economic activity momentum remained weak

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in 2019  

    We expect the trade surplus to remain wide in 2020

  • ARGENTINA – Further deceleration of activity at the end of 2019  

    Activity contracted by 2.3% yoy during the first 11 months of the year

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp adjustment of fiscal deficit in 2019  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 1% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Transitory inflation rebound  

    Inflation was pressured by an unfavorable base effect and an update in excise tax

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: GDP growth resumes after the drought  

    GDP growth resumed in 3Q19, led by consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Challenges for the new administration  

    The fiscal deficit increased in 2019, becoming the foremost challenge for the new government

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in November  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain wide at around 4.5% of GDP for both 2019 and 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity moderates in November  

    A gradual core retail sales slowdown expected ahead, in line with depressed sentiment and a weakening labor market

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in November  

    Economic activity was dragged mainly by a sharp contraction in construction output

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation ends 2019 at a high level  

    Our forecast for 2020 stands at 43%

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in October  

    Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy are weighing on investment

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in November  

    Industrial production surprised on the downside

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but still gradual deceleration of core  

    Persistence in core inflation stand in the way of a more frontloaded easing cycle

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in December  

    Despite the lower-than-expected inflation, our diffusion index points to above-target prints in coming months

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus to end 2019  

    An export normalization amid constrained imports would lead to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit this year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations at the close of 2019  

    Food price normalization after the recent supply shocks would aid the expected disinflation process this year

  • CHILE – Another sharp activity drop in November  

    As activity operations normalized during the final month of 2019, we expect a milder year-over-year activity contraction in December

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: further gradual rate cuts are likely  

    Divisions over the balance of risks for inflation remain

  • CHILE – Some positives in November labor market figures  

    Despite the November surprise, we expect a weakening labor market.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing activity recovered in November  

    We now expect a 3% contraction for the monthly GDP proxy in November.

  • MEXICO – Manufacturing exports suggest activity weakness persists in 4Q19  

    Manufacturing exports weakened in November

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed labor market signs in November  

    We expect only a gradual improvement of the labor market in 2020, so the central bank will likely remain on hold.

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP deteriorated in October  

    Services and industrial output were the main drags to economic activity

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reinforcing stability  

    The board saw no reason to change the status quo

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 3Q19  

    Private gross fixed investment deteriorated further

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation fell by more than market expectations  

    Headline inflation decelerated, helped by a slowdown in both core and non-core inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Activity decelerated again at the beginning of 4Q19  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.9% for this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates retain appeal  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold for some time.

  • COLOMBIA – Tax reform re-approved  

    Despite tax reform approval, we note that Colombia's fiscal accounts remain fragile going forward.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside in October  

    At the margin, retail sales contracted sharply on a monthly basis

  • ARGENTINA – Current account deficit narrowed significantly in 3Q19  

    We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% of GDP for this year

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: reinforcing gradualism  

    Only one dissident board member voted for a 50-bp cut

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Economic activity recovers  

    Activity showed a strong rebound in the second half of the year.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Stable rates in the short-term, rate cuts possible afterwar  

    We expect rates on hold in coming months. However, a weak activity and higher unemployment rate ahead mean rate cuts remain possible

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government  

    Reducing the fiscal deficit is the main challenge of the new administration.

  • COLOMBIA – Weaker imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With domestic demand still upbeat, and global growth low, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Short-lived GDP recovery in 3Q19  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.9% for this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated further in October  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction output and non-primary manufacturing activity

  • COLOMBIA – Positive activity start to 4Q19  

    Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead

  • MEXICO – October’s industrial production deteriorated further  

    The weakness in U.S. economic activity is reflected more clearly in Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in November  

    Inflation to hit a record high in 2019.

  • CHILE – Trade balance still affected by social unrest in November  

    The expected internal demand collapse will lead to a swift narrowing of the current account balance next year.

  • MEXICO – CPI decelerated further, with annual core inflation falling slowly  

    Slow core inflation deceleration reinforce a gradual monetary easing cycle for now

  • COLOMBIA – Controlled inflation in November as shocks start to unwind  

    So far, only a mild pass-through from the depreciation of the Colombian peso has materialized

  • CHILE – Still well-behaved inflation in November  

    Tradable prices are starting to push inflation up

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 3Q19  

    Uncertainties facing the economy are weighing on investment

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: High inflation forecast bodes caution  

    Rate moves will depend on the evolution of activity, the labor market, exchange rate and inflation expectations

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable for some time  

    An uncertain inflation path amid opposing pressures inspired caution

  • CHILE – Stark retail sales contraction, while outlook is bleak  

    With consumer confidence at historic lows and the labor market set to loosen, consumption will slow significantly ahead

  • PERU – Inflation surprises to the upside in November, but remained low  

    Headline and core annual inflation remained practically unchanged

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 3Q19  

    A wide CAD would leave the Colombian peso vulnerable to the domestic uncertainties.

  • CHILE – Worst activity performance since global financial crisis  

    Despite falling activity, FX volatility will get in the way of rate cuts this month.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market weakness persists in October  

    Rising unemployment rate and a possible labor market reform are key discussion points in the current social protests

  • CHILE – Labor market weakening begins  

    The greater Santiago data better reflects the impact of recent events.

  • CHILE – Large manufacturing drop in first major protest-affected data print  

    Record-low business confidence and weak activity point at no recovery of growth next year.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: a gradual easing cycle  

    Strong divisions within the board remain.

  • MEXICO – Stable trade balance in October  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighing on manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and higher short-term core inflation  

    Core inflation projection shows a delay in its deceleration trend, compared to the past inflation report

  • ARGENTINA – Back to recession in 3Q19  

    We revised our GDP forecast down to a contraction of 2.9% for this year (from -2.5% in our previous scenario).

  • MEXICO – Above market expectations retail sales in September  

    At the margin, retail sales improved on a monthly basis, but momentum was soft in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Annual GDP contracted in 3Q19  

    Past GDP revisions show the economy was in a mild technical recession in 1H19

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) remained narrow in 3Q19  

    Net direct investment was enough to cover the CAD

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated slightly, with core slowing down gradually  

    Inflation came in broadly in line with market expectations.

  • PERU – GDP improved in 3Q19, while fiscal and external deficits remained narrow  

    Final domestic demand improved in 3Q19, supported by a recovery in private demand and public consumption

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in October  

    Larger-than-expected trade surpluses over the last few months led to an upward revision of our forecast for 2019.

  • CHILE – Large current account deficit in 3Q19  

    Domestic demand wekaness, the exchange rate adjustment and some global recovery will favor the external account adjustment in Chile

  • CHILE – Growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Drivers of growth in the quarter will likely fade in coming quarters.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable activity dynamics in 3Q19  

    Robust investment and consumption will drive growth of 3.3% this year (2.6% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening exports amid solidifying imports widen trade deficit in 3Q19  

    Robust domestic demand amid weak global activity suggests the current account deficit will remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Lower than expected headline inflation in October  

    Exchange rate controls have helped to moderate inflation in the basket of goods.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cut 25-bp the policy rate in another split decision  

    Marginal changes to the statement, with a dovish tone

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Second round  

    The Frente Amplio won in October, but the opposition joins with an eye on the second round.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Central Bank has completed easing cycle  

    Central Bank kept policy rate unchanged in October

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In the midst of uncertainty  

    We believe the output gap would widen further, justifying lower rates

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Industrial production improved, but momentum was weak  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighting on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • CHILE – Higher-than-expected October inflation  

    A widening output gap would likely keep demand-side inflationary pressures contained ahead

  • MEXICO – CPI remained stable, while core inflation slowly declines  

    Core inflation slowdown increases the odds of Banxico frontloading the easing cycle

  • CHILE – October trade deficit as protests halt activity  

    Domestic uncertainty would lead to negative effect on import dynamics, while exports could benefit from improving global sentiment

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment recovered, but momentum is still weak  

    Construction investment supported the recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Higher inflation in October, but stable core  

    Unwinding of supply-side shocks, a negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would aid the convergence towards 3% next year.

  • CHILE – Disappointing retail sales in September  

    With consumer confidence falling, credit growth slowing and supply-side shocks affecting operations, consumption is set to slump further.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity ahead of protest effect  

    With activity set to slump in 4Q19, growth this year is likely to come in closer to 2% (2.2% previously expected)

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No game changer  

    Stable rates remain the status quo

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Staying on hold and wrapping up the reserve accumulation program  

    The board continues to see that risks are balanced for inflation.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market data in 3Q19  

    Weakness signs in the labor market mean robust consumption is not guaranteed

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Public Finances supported by one-off revenues  

    The MoF increased the expected use of the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Milder manufacturing bounce-back in September  

    We expect Imacec growth of 3.6% in September

  • CHILE – Labor market looked rosy in 3Q19  

    Risks to the unemployment rate are tilted to the upside given the recent events

  • MEXICO – Weak 3Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    Services, the largest sector of the economy, slowed down in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improvement moderated in 3Q19  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Retail sales improved in August, but momentum is soft  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation stood practically unchanged, with core slowing down gradually  

    Headline inflation stood close to Banxico’s central target

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in August  

    We expect activity to weaken further as the October presidential elections approach.

  • MEXICO – August GDP improved, but momentum remained soft  

    Services and manufacturing sectors decelerated, while mining and construction output recovered

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 25-bp cut, more to come  

    The board left the door open to increasing the size of the monetary stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in September  

    Exports picked up, amid sluggish imports.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Fiscal impulse  

    We have adjusted our fiscal deficit projection to 2.3% of GDP (from -1.5%).

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in August  

    Solid import growth and a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Elections in sight  

    Available surveys point to two rounds of voting as the most likely scenario.

  • ARGENTINA – Further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We don´t expect more fiscal consolidation ahead.

  • ARGENTINA – As anticipated, inflation spiked in September  

    Disinflation is likely to be slow and bumpy.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive activity in August  

    Surprisingly robust private consumption means growth this year could exceed our 3% call.

  • PERU – Economic activity recovered in August  

    Recovery in economic activity was supported by an improvement of the natural resources sector.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production surprised to the upside in August, but trend remains weak  

    Industrial production improved supported by a recovery in construction and mining output, but momentum remained soft

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: a still cautious forward guidance  

    The acceleration of the easing cycle will depend on the favorable evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – September CPI fell further, while core inflation slowed slightly  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%

  • CHILE – Large downside CPI surprise in September  

    The inflation data consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75% later this month

  • CHILE – Small trade surplus in 3Q19  

    The trade data is negative for activity, as it points to weak external and internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Annual inflation rises further  

    The unwinding of food price shocks, the still-negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would support disinflation next year

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in July  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE - Upside retail surprise in August  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • CHILE - Larger-than-expected activity boost in August  

    Given the strong August print, growth could come in above our 2.2% forecast this year (4% last year).

  • PERU – September’s inflation decelerated further  

    Inflation crossed below the BCRP central inflation target of 2%.

  • CHILE – Weak August activity, despite mining recovery  

    Below potential growth reinforces the expectation of another rate cut in October.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In observation mode  

    Wait-and-see mode as the board observes the development of high inflation, resilient activity and a moderating labor market.

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp unemployment rise in August  

    We expect the unemployment rate to average 10.3% in 2019, from 9.7% for 2018.

  • CHILE – Unemployment ticks down in August amid fiscal boost  

    As the labor market reflects economic slack, it would bolster views that demand-side inflationary pressures remain low

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery will not last  

    We expect another round of weak activity indicators in the coming months.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected; Two board members vote for a 50-bp cut  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    The decline in imports suggests a new round of weak activity following the primary election.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Another cut as soon as October?  

    Large uncertainty favors more gradual cuts ahead, with incoming data key behind the timing of the next movement.

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts new primary surplus, but further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We recently raised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for this year to 0.8% of GDP.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable, but less expansionary, rates  

    We expect stable rates for the remainder of the year, but the balance of risks titled towards rate cuts rather than hikes ahead.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Public and private investment deteriorated, while private consumption expanded at a soft pace

  • ARGENTINA – Modest GDP growth in 2Q19 will be short-lived.  

    No relief for the economic downturn. We recently adjusted our GDP forecasts down to -2.5% (from -1.4%).

  • COLOMBIA – Wider trade deficit in July  

    A challenging global scenario means Colombia’s external account imbalances are likely to persist

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity likely to contract in 2019  

    We expect a 1.5% GDP contraction this year (from +1% previously).

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: We expect slower growth  

    We have cut our growth projections for Uruguay to zero growth in 2019 (from 0.5%) and 1.5% in 2020 (from 2%).

  • PERU – Economic activity improved in July, but remained weak  

    Economic activity was supported by an improvement in the natural resources sector

  • PERU – BCRP in data dependent mode  

    Further easing will be dependent on incoming information.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail drives July activity  

    Strong activity momentum, along with rising inflation would lead the central bank to keep rates stable

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation resumed upward trend  

    Consumer prices spiked in August after a new depreciation of the peso.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in July  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy seems to be starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Reality check  

    The government took a first step in debt-restructuring direction.

  • MEXICO – 2020 Budget: still responsible fiscal targets, but risk of fiscal slippage is high  

    Growth and oil production projections are on the optimistic side

  • MEXICO – August CPI decelerated, while core inflation remains sticky  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 3.3%

  • CHILE – Weak imports lead to a trade surplus in August  

    Declining manufacturing exports along with weakened consumer and capital goods imports hint at unfavorable activity dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 2Q19  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • COLOMBIA – Downward food inflation surprise in August  

    Inflation, coupled with positive developments on activity and a wide CAD means the policy rate will likely stay at 4,25% in the near term.

  • CHILE – Inflation ticks up in August  

    Despite low core inflationary pressures, headline inflation would end the year close to the target

  • CHILE – July activity in-line with expectations  

    The sluggish start to the year, along with mixed recovery signs, increase the likelihood of growth below our 2.4% call for 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Further, and even aggressive, easing is possible  

    More rate cuts are likely, but the timing and magnitude of additional easing is uncertain

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut, more could come  

    The September’s decision raises the likelihood that the easing cycle extends beyond 100-bps, taking rates below 2.0%.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in July  

    The monthly GDP proxy would grow 3.2% in July, as the boost from manufacturing is partly offset by weaker-than-expected consumption data.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide, but broadly stable, CAD in 2Q19  

    The elevated CAD, rising headline inflation and the weakening of the COP would prevent the central bank from cutting rates in the short-term

  • PERU – Inflation fell further in August  

    Low inflation increases the odds of the BCRP cutting the policy rate further in the short-term

  • CHILE – Private job drag moderates in July  

    As the growth outlook remains uncertain, we expect job growth to remain contained

  • CHILE – Transitorily higher activity in July  

    Seasonal factors and a low base of comparison aided the activity recovery in the month.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market with falling employment  

    The uninspiring labor market dynamics amid pessimistic consumer sentiment mean private consumption would moderate ahead.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: board split also on rate guidance  

    Board members seem to be divided on the monetary forward guidance.

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Inflation Report: lower headline inflation and growth forecasts  

    The easing cycle is set to continue.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance narrowed, supported by weak internal demand  

    Non-oil imports deteriorated, dragged by a sharp contraction in imports of capital goods.

  • MEXICO – Sharp current account balance improvement in 2Q19  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 GDP revised down  

    Mining and construction sectors were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – GDP remained soft in 2Q19, with sound fiscal and external accounts  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside, with core still at a high level  

    Headline inflation decelerated, dragged by non-core prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Mild activity growth in 2Q19  

    There are clear downside risks to our -1.4% GDP growth forecast for this year

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in July  

    The incoming administration will receive lower twin deficits, but the roll-over of debt will be challenging,

  • MEXICO – June’s retail sales deteriorated at the margin  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: We expect less growth  

    The expected recovery for 2H19 would be lower.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Investments would sustain growth  

    New pulp mill boosts growth.

  • CHILE – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity, but to a still-weak pace  

    External headwinds will limit the pace of recovery ahead

  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 2Q19  

    As copper prices stay low and domestic demand remains weak, we see the CAD remaining wide

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: In a split decision, the easing cycle begins  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowdown will not last  

    Inflation is likely to resume an upward trend

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity in 2Q19  

    Local and global headwinds make a sustained recovery in 2H19 unlikely.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Non-natural and natural resources sectors decelerated in 2Q19

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data in June  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With moderating global demand and low oil prices, we expect the CAD to remain wide, at 4.3% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Industrial production fell further in 2Q19  

    Oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: the BCRP cut its policy rate 25-bp  

    The BCRP didn’t close the door for additional cuts, but they are not granted.

  • CHILE – Unsurprising July inflation print favors a 25bp rate cut in September  

    Low core measures and our diffusion index point at contained inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – July’s CPI decelerated, but core remains sticky  

    Core inflation still sticky

  • CHILE – Trade deficit in July  

    Weak global demand amid limited domestic demand would keep the CAD above 3% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in July  

    The intensity and endurance of the supply shocks likely mean that inflation would end this year at 3.75%.


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