Itaú BBA - Weak industrial production, driven by sharp drop in the extractive sector

Macro Brazil

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Weak industrial production, driven by sharp drop in the extractive sector

April 2, 2019

For March’s industrial production, we now forecast a 0.1% mom/sa decrease, leading the year-over-year rate to -3.9%.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.
 

• In February, industrial production rose 0.7% mom/sa, disappointing the median of market expectations (1.0%) and our estimate (1.6%). The quarterly moving average remained virtually stable.

 Mining and extraction fell sharply during the month (-14.8%), probably reflecting lower iron ore production following the dam collapse in Brumadinho.

• Our preliminary estimate for March is a small 0.1% drop in industrial production at the margin.


Luka Barbosa
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha



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