Itaú BBA - Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May

Macro Brazil

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Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May

July 12, 2018

Breakdown shows widespread decline

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

Core retail sales dropped 0.6% mom/sa in May, slightly better than the median of market expectations (-0.8%) and our estimate (-1.0%).

Broad retail sales (including vehicles and construction material) tanked 4.9%, disappointing the median of market expectations and our call (both at -3.2%). The truckers’ stoppages affected sales in the final two weeks of the month and influenced the result.

The May decline was widespread, with drops in 8 out of 10 broad retail segments.

For the time being, we forecast an increase of 1.1% mom/sa in broad retail sales in June.
 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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