Itaú BBA - Retail sales expand in March

Macro Brazil

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Retail sales expand in March

May 9, 2019

Report reinforces scenario of a slight increase in consumer spending in 1Q19

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.
 

 Broad retail sales (including vehicles and construction material) advanced 1.1% in April, in line with our estimate and below the median of market expectations (1.2% and 1.6%, respectively).

 Core retail sales went up 0.3%, disappointing our forecast and the median of market estimates (1.1% and 0.9%, respectively). In year-over-year terms, sales fell 4.4%.

 These results reinforce our understanding that consumer spending sustained a moderate growth pace in 1Q19, but this move was probably offset by a reduction in investment. Our forecast for 1Q19 GDP remains at -0.2% qoq/sa.

 For the time being, we anticipate seasonally-adjusted declines in both retail sales indicators in April. 
 

Luka Barbosa
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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