Itaú BBA - Retail sales beat expectations in November, driven by Black Friday

Macro Brazil

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Retail sales beat expectations in November, driven by Black Friday

January 15, 2019

We forecast sales to decline in December, as the temporary boost from Black Friday fades

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• Core retail sales soared 2.9% in November, printing significantly above the median of market estimates and our call (1.0% and 0.9%, respectively). The increase was likely influenced by Black Friday promotions, a driver that was not entirely captured by forecasts.

• Broad retail sales (including vehicles and construction material) climbed 1.5% during the month and also topped expectations (median: 0.6%; our call: 0.7%).

• For the time being, we forecast a slight decline in seasonally-adjusted core and broad retail sales volumes in December, due to normalization after the temporary effect of promotions. Going forward, we expect growth to accelerate, thanks to more expansive financial conditions. Importantly, such improvement depends on the approval of reforms.
 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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