Itaú BBA - Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP is virtually stable in April

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Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP is virtually stable in April

June 14, 2017

Year-over-year change becomes negative again

Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP (PIBIU)[1] was unchanged on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis in April, after a decline in March. Compared to April 2016, the index retreated 1.4%. Data already released for May suggest a slight drop in monthly GDP.

Year-over-year change becomes negative again

Our monthly GDP proxy was virtually unchanged during in April (0.1% mom/sa). However, compared to one year earlier, monthly GDP fell 1.4% and went back to negative territory after posting in March the first positive reading in 23 months. In the quarter ended in April, the indicator went up 0.4% compared to the first quarter of year. These figures suggest that growth will be slower in 2Q17 than in 1Q17.

Notwithstanding the stability in seasonally-adjusted terms, six out of ten PIBIU components posted declines. The sharpest drop was in construction (-1.8%) and the biggest gain in retail (1.2%).

Preliminary figures for May point to falling retail sales, suggesting a slight retreat in PIBIU during the month.


 

Felipe Monteiro de Salles

Alexandre Gomes da Cunha



[1] To get both our original and seasonally-adjusted series on the Bloomberg, type PIBIU <F10> <GO> or PIBISA <F10> <GO>. To get them on Broadcast, use ticker PIBIU or PIBIUD (seasonally adjusted). The series are also available at:https://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/our-economic-series/spreadsheets


 

 



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