Itaú BBA - Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP expands 0.3% in 1Q18

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Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP expands 0.3% in 1Q18

May 15, 2018

PM-Itaú increases 0.1% in March.

Itaú Unibanco’s monthly GDP (PM-Itaú) [1] rose 0.1% mom/sa in March. In 1Q18, our indicator expanded 0.3% qoq, in line with our estimate for headline GDP growth.

For April, based on already released coincident indicators, we forecast, for the time being, a small gain of 0.3% mom/sa in PM-Itaú.

Quarterly gain is consistent with our GDP call

Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP went up 0.1% mom/sa in March. Compared to the year-earlier period, the advance in the indicator quickened to 0.7% from 0.5% in February. In 1Q18, it expanded 0.3% vs. the previous quarter, a result that is consistent with our forecast for GDP in the same timeframe.

According to census bureau IBGE, industrial production and real revenues from services decreased somewhat in March. On the other hand, retail sales (both the core and broad concepts, with the latter including vehicles and construction material) posted a positive result. 

Breaking down PM-Itaú by its components, 8 out of 13 indicators that form the monthly index posted gains. Information services delivered the biggest seasonally-adjusted monthly advance (1.7%), followed by mining and extraction (1.5%). Transportation had the sharpest decline (-0.4% mom/sa).

For April, based on already released coincident indicators, we forecast, for the time being, a small increase of 0.3% mom/sa in PM-Itaú.
 

It is worth noting that we revised our monthly economic activity indicator at the end of 2017. The revised series is more closely correlated to the quarterly GDP published by IBGE. For the complete methodology, please refer to the report Revision of Itaú Unibanco’s Monthly GDP series.
 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

 


[1] The Itaú Unibanco Monthly GDP series (PM-Itaú), seasonally adjusted and not adjusted, are both available on Bloomberg terminals. 

To access those, type PIBIU or PIBISA . On the Broadcast service, access the index with the ticker PIBIU or PIBIUD (seasonally adjusted). They are also available on our site: https://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/our-economic-series/itau-unibanco-monthly-gdp

 



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