Itaú BBA - Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP advances in June

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Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP advances in June

August 15, 2017

We forecast PIBIU to rise again in July.

Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP (PIBIU)[1] expanded 0.6% mom/sa in June. In 2Q17, it fell 0.2%, in line with our expectation of a slight decline in GDP during the quarter. The June advance was widespread among components.

Data already out for July suggest another monthly increase in PIBIU.

Widespread improvement among monthly GDP components 

Our monthly GDP proxy went up 0.6% mom/sa in June. Compared to one year earlier, monthly GDP advanced 1.9%.

However, in 2Q17, the indicator receded 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis vs. 1Q17, in line with our call for GDP in the second quarter. The decline was driven by a contraction in agriculture GDP (following a strong result in the earlier months of the year) and unfavorable statistical carryover from several GDP components due to weak readings in March. These two factors offset the improvement in underlying growth during the quarter. 

The monthly advance was widespread among PIBIU components, with eight out of ten posting increases. Retail stood out positively with a gain of 2.5% mom/sa, while the agriculture indicator dropped 1.7% mom/sa.

Preliminary data for July suggest another monthly increase in PIBIU.


 

Artur Manoel Passos

Alexandre Gomes da Cunha


 


[1] To get both our original and seasonally-adjusted series on the Bloomberg, type PIBIU <F10> <GO> or PIBISA <F10> <GO>. To get them on Broadcast, use ticker PIBIU or PIBIUD (seasonally adjusted). The series are also available at: https://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/our-economic-series/spreadsheets


 



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