Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 rose 0.14% in May, below the lowest of market estimates

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 rose 0.14% in May, below the lowest of market estimates

May 23, 2018

Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in May points to a 0.25% increase

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

 

The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose 0.14% in May, below our estimate (0.27%) and the lowest of market expectations (0.20%, with the median at 0.26%). The index increased 0.21% in April and 0.24% in May 2017. Year-to-date inflation reached 1.23% (the lowest for the period since the Real Plan was implemented), while the year-over-year change slid to 2.70% from 2.80% in April. Healthcare and personal care (0.09 p.p.) and housing (0.07 p.p.) provided the largest upward contributions during the month. On the other hand, transportation (-0.06 p.p.), food and beverages (-0.01 p.p.), and household items (-0.01 p.p.) gave negative contributions. Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in May points to a 0.25% increase, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.70% from 2.76% in April.

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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