Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, below the median of market expectations

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, below the median of market expectations

September 21, 2018

Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.46% increase

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, below our estimate (0.16%) and the median of market expectations (0.18%). The index increased 0.13% in August and 0.11% in September 2017. Year-to-date inflation reached 3.23%, while the year-over-year change decelerated to 4.28% from 4.30% in the previous month. Housing (0.05 p.p.), personal expenses (0.05 p.p.), and transportation (0.04 p.p.) provided the largest upward contributions during the month. On the other hand, food and beverages posted a negative contribution (-0.10 p.p.). Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in September is a 0.46% increase — driven by substantial pressure from fuel prices —, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 4.51% from 4.19% in August.
 

Elson Teles
Economist


 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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