Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 climbed 0.64% in July, below the median of market estimates

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 climbed 0.64% in July, below the median of market estimates

July 20, 2018

Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in July points to an increase of 0.28%

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 climbed 0.64% in July, below our estimate (0.70%) and the median of market expectations (0.73%). Regulated prices were behind the biggest deviation from our forecast. The index increased 1.11% in June and fell 0.18% in July 2017. Year-to-date inflation reached 3.00%, while the year-over-year change accelerated to 4.53% from 3.68% in June. Housing (0.31 p.p.), food and beverages (0.15 p.p.), and transportation (0.15 p.p.) provided the largest upward contributions during the month. Item-wise, there were noteworthy contributions from electricity, milk and dairy, and public transportation. Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in July points to an increase of 0.28%, with the year-over-year rate unchanged at 4.4%.
 

Elson Teles
Economist

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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