Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 climbed 0.58% in October, printing below expectations

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IPCA-15 climbed 0.58% in October, printing below expectations

October 23, 2018

Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in October is a 0.55% increase

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose 0.58% in October, printing below our estimate (0.66%) and the median of market expectations (0.64%). The biggest deviation from our call was caused by food consumed at home, as the result was lower than other price surveys suggested. The index increased 0.09% in September and 0.34% in October 2017. Year-to-date inflation reached 3.83%, while the year-over-year change accelerated to 4.53% from 4.28% in the previous month. Transportation (0.30 p.p.), food and beverages (0.11 p.p.), and healthcare and personal care (0.08 p.p.) provided the largest upward contributions during the month. Fuels gave a noteworthy contribution of 0.27 p.p. in the transportation group. Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in October is a 0.55% increase driven by food and transportation, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 4.66% from 4.53% in September.

Elson Teles
Economist

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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