Itaú BBA - Inflation Report: Forecasts still point to stable Selic rate in 2019

Macro Brazil

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Inflation Report: Forecasts still point to stable Selic rate in 2019

March 28, 2019

The IR shows forecasts that are consistent with stability of the Selic rate at the current level, in line with our scenario.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.

The March 2019 inflation report shows inflation forecasts that are consistent with the stability of the Selic rate, at the current level of 6.5% pa, throughout 2019, in the absence of further shocks and/or disappointments with economic activity. Indeed, in the reference scenario, with constant Selic rate and exchange rate, inflation forecasts are 4.1% for 2019, 4.0% for 2020 and 4.1% for 2021 (against targets of 4.25%, 4.00% and 3.75%, respectively), showing no need for interest rate increases before at least 2020, and in line with our scenario of a stable Selic rate in 2019.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.



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