Itaú BBA - GDP rises 0.4% in 1Q18, extending gradual recovery

Macro Brazil

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GDP rises 0.4% in 1Q18, extending gradual recovery

May 30, 2018

GDP breakdown shows a slightly better picture for domestic demand than the headline result suggests

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

Brazilian GDP expanded 0.4% qoq/sa in 1Q18 and 1.2% yoy, slightly above our estimate and the median of market expectations (both at 0.3% qoq/sa).

GDP breakdown shows a slightly better picture for domestic demand than the headline result suggests. Household spending and fixed capital investments advanced 0.5% and 0.6% at the margin, respectively.

We forecast 2.0% growth in 2018, contemplating monetary policy, corporate balance sheets, the external background and uncertainties regarding the evolution of reforms. We have not yet incorporated the eventual impact of cargo transportation stoppages, which may have effects in the short term (due to halted production and supply chains) and in the second half (due to a lasting impact on confidence).
 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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