Itaú BBA - GDP expands 0.1% in 4Q18 and 1.1% in 2018

Macro Brazil

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GDP expands 0.1% in 4Q18 and 1.1% in 2018

February 28, 2019

The reading reinforces the perception of weak growth in late 2018.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• GDP expanded 0.1% qoq/sa in 4Q18, in line with expectations, and 1.1% yoy, below the market expectations but close to our forecasts. The reading reinforces the perception of weak growth in late 2018.

• GDP growth in 2018 was 1.1%, the same as in 2017. The recovery that began in 2017 remains timid when considering the declines in GDP in 2015 (-3.5%) and 2016 (-3.3%).

• We expect GDP to grow 2.0% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, assuming progress in reforms. Importantly, the earliest indicators for 1Q19 add downside to our call.
 

Artur Manoel Passos
 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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