Itaú BBA - Macro Brazil
  • Itaú Daily Activity Tracker - Brazil  

    The indicator increased at the margin

  • Broad retail sales continue to rise, but core sales decrease slightly  

    Retail sales sensitive to income lose steam at the margin

  • Copom Cockpit: end of forward guidance, but on hold  

    We believe that the Copom will withdraw its forward guidance, but it will keep the Selic rate at 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccination accelerates in the U.S. and U.K.  

    In Brazil, vaccines await Anvisa’s approval, but new cases continue to increase.

  • IPCA climbs 1.35% in December and closes the year at 4.52%  

    The indicator came in higher than expected, and ended 2020 with an increase of 4.52%.

  • Industrial production continues to increase, and inventories remain low  

    Industrial production enjoys a Strong recovery process.

  • Pandemic monitor: deployment of vaccines continues  

    In countries that have not yet started vaccinating, negotiations to start their own vaccination campaigns quickly are ongoing.

  • Trade surplus of $51 billion in 2020  

    Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic.

  • Pandemic monitor: U.K. approves Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine  

    Approval by the European country sets an important precedent for emerging regions, including Brazil.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 18.1 billion in November  

    Fiscal results better at the margin

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate reaches 14.4%  

    Recovering employment.

  • Continuing increase in new loans in November  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 2.2%.

  • Pandemic monitor: new strain raises concerns, but vaccination continues  

    Fears about virus mutation are offset by optimism with vaccines

  • IPCA-15 climbs 1.06% in December and 4.23% in 2020  

    IPCA-15 ends the year with a 4.23% increase, from 3.91% in 2019.

  • Small current account surplus in November  

    Smaller-than-expected current account surplus in November due to stronger profits and dividends outflows.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: little room for surprises  

    There is little room for negative inflationary surprises in 1Q21, while positive surprises may anticipate the end of forward guidance.

  • Pandemic monitor: vaccine distribution begins in the United States  

    In the U.S., the first doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine started to be distributed this week.

  • Copom Minutes: Forward Guidance in the Summer  

    Minutes clarify conditions to discard forward guidance. Given our inflation forecast, we expect this to happen only in the fall (S. Hem.)

  • Retail sales continued to increase in October  

    Strong retail sales in October. We expect a deceleration in the coming months.

  • Copom: forward guidance at risk  

    The committee kept the Selic rate at 2.0% p.a., as widely expected, at its last monetary policy meeting for 2020.

  • Pandemic monitor: U.K. starts vaccination, U.S. to follow soon  

    Europe and Brazil to start vaccinating in early 2021.

  • IPCA increases 0.89% in November and 4.31% yoy  

    Food-at-home and housing prices came in above expectations.

  • Copom Cockpit: stable rates, persisting risks  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low (2.00% p.a.) at its meeting on December 8 and 9.

  • GDP climbs 7.7% qoq/sa in 3Q20  

    The breakdown among components shows a V-shaped recovery in the goods sector.

  • Pandemic monitor: outbreak begins to decelerate in the U.S.  

    Worsening trend in the region has reversed in the past few days.

  • Continuing gains in industrial production  

    In October, industrial production climbed 1.1% mom/sa

  • Imports on the rise, but trade surplus remains high in November  

    Last month's figures begin to show some normalization in imports, but overall surplus remains high.

  • Primary surplus of BRL 3.0 billion in October  

    Fiscal challenges are high.

  • Continuing increase in non-earmarked loans in October  

    The seasonally-adjusted deliquency rate in the system remained broadly stable.

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate reaches 14.8%  

    Employment improves at the margin

  • Pandemic monitor: second wave retreats in Europe  

    In Brazil, relative stability of cases and deaths at the margin, but hospitalizations on the rise.

  • Surplus of $1.5 billion in the current account in October  

    Current account deficit recedes to 1.0% of GDP in October following another monthly surplus

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.81% in November and 4.22% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rose 0.81% in November, above expectations. Some services (food away from home and transportation) prices accelerated at the margin.

  • Pandemic monitor: signs of deceleration in new cases in Europe  

    New cases show signs of improvement in Europe, but continue to rise in the US. In Brazil, cases also increased, but with some distortions.

  • Retail Sales continue to increase in September  

    Retail sales are well above their pre-crisis levels

  • Pandemic monitor: cases in the U.S. continue to accelerate  

    Second wave remains in focus, particularly in Europe and in the U.S. In Brazil, official data remains unavailable due to system issues.

  • IPCA climbs 0.86% in October and 3.92% yoy  

    IPCA rises 0.86% in October. Core inflation continues to accelerate at the margin.

  • Industrial production reaches pre-crisis level  

    Industrial production increases 2.6% mom/sa in September

  • Pandemic monitor: Europe remains in focus  

    Second wave in the U.S. and in Europe remains in focus. In Brazil, the number of new cases resumed its downward trend.

  • Trade surplus remains high in October  

    Still weak imports keep trade surplus at historically-high levels

  • Copom Minutes: stable rates, as risks net out  

    We see the minutes as consistent with our view that the committee will leave the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, until late 2021.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 64.6 billion in September  

    Fiscal challenges remain high

  • Unemployment rate reaches 14.4%  

    Low participation rate prevents sharper increase in unemployment

  • Pandemic monitor: Europe still in the spotlight  

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  • Copom: a hawkish swerve  

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged at 2.0% p.a., as had been expected by the market, and tweaked its communication in a hawkish direction.

  • Non-earmarked loans continue to recover in September  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.2 p.p. to 2.4%.

  • Another current account surplus in September  

    September marks the sixth consecutive monthly current account surplus. Over 12 months, the CAD reached 1.4% of GDP.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.94% in October and 3.52% yoy  

    IPCA-15 advances 0.94% in October, pressured by food and airfare prices. Core inflation also accelerated.

  • Copom Cockpit: fiscally-dependent guidance  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting.

  • Pandemic monitor: second wave in Europe continues to gain momentum  

    New deaths in Europe are now rising faster, but still at trend that is proportionally much smoother than in the first half of the year.

  • Pandemic monitor: second wave intensifies in developed countries  

    Economic activity continues to improve in Brazil

  • Retail Sales continue to increase  

    Furniture & appliances and construction material boost retail sales

  • Pandemic monitor: economic activity approaches pre-crisis levels in Brazil  

    Our daily indicator for Brazil continues to rise and has momentarily surpassed pre-crisis levels during the past week.

  • Trade surplus remains wide   

    Imports were stronger than expected in September, but remain at low levels. Trade Surplus remains wide.

  • Pandemic monitor: trend of gradual improvement continues in Brazil  

    Case counting also shows a downward trend in India and some stabilization (but still quite preliminary) in some European countries.

  • Unemployment rate reaches 13.8%  

    Lower participation rate prevents sharper increase in unemployment

  • Primary deficit of BRL 87.6 billion in August  

    .Fiscal challenges are high

  • New non-earmarked loans advance in August, led by households  

    The average interest rate and spread decreased.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: stable Selic rate  

    The report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the maintenance of the Selic rate at a low level for a long period.

  • Pandemic monitor: economic activity accelerates further in Brazil  

    News cases show some stabilization in India, but continue to accelerate in most of Europe

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September and 2.65% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September. Pressure on food prices is expected to continue for the next readings.

  • $3.7 billion current account surplus in August  

    Slower economic activity, a weaker exchange rate and social isolation have been impacting the current account

  • Copom Minutes: reaffirming forward guidance  

    The Copom minutes reinforce that their forward guidance (low rates for long) still applies

  • Pandemic monitor: after significant improvement, Brazil has slight increases at the margin  

    The 7-day moving averages jumped with the latest bulletin, because data for the Sep. 7 holiday dropped out, not because of a change of trend

  • Copom: stable rates, as expected  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate amid fiscal uncertainties  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting

  • Core retail sales exceed pre-crisis level  

    Core retail sales on the rise

  • Pandemic monitor: new deaths continue to retreat in Brazil  

    After months hovering around 1000 per day, new deaths in Brazil seem to have entered a clear downward trend

  • IPCA rises 0.24% in August and 2.44% yoy  

    IPCA rises 0.24% in August, with pressure on food prices and relief in the education group

  • Continuing recovery in industrial production  

    Strong and widespread growth.

  • Pandemic monitor: declining deaths in Brazil  

    New deaths receded again in Brazil, reaching the same levels of the second half of May

  • $6.6 billion trade surplus in August  

    Brazilian imports resume growth but remain at low levels

  • GDP declined 9.7% in 2Q20  

    Result reflects the pandemic's impacts

  • Primary deficit of BRL 81.1 billion in July  

    The main challenge is to rebalance fiscal accounts

  • New loans increase and delinquency rate declines in July  

    The average interest rate and spread also decreased.

  • Pandemic monitor: the economic recovery is resuming in the U.S.  

    After a long period of stability, our indicator for the U.S. now shows an upward trend, consistent with the retreating outbreak

  • Another month of current account adjustment  

    July marks the fourth consecutive monthly current account surplus.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.23% in August and 2.28% yoy  

    Deflation in education prices helped to decrease the monthly gain.

  • Pandemic monitor: cases increase in Europe, but deaths don’t  

    ..

  • Itaú monthly GDP expands 3.3% mom/sa in June  

    Breakdown shows widespread gains

  • Significant recovery in retail sales in June  

    Core retail sales return to pre-crisis level

  • Coronavirus monitor: India becomes the epicenter of new cases  

    In Brazil, the number of new cases has decreased slightly at the margin, while new deaths remain broadly stable

  • Copom Minutes: stable rates in the baseline scenario  

    The Copom minutes reinforce the perception that the authorities will not move in the next policy meeting

  • IPCA rises 0.36% in July and 2.31% yoy  

    July’s IPCA close to estimates. Underlying service inflation remains on a declining trend.

  • Unemployment rate in line with expectations in June  

    Falling participation rate prevents steeper increase in unemployment rate.

  • Coronavirus monitor: global new cases have interrupted a long sequence of increases  

    With improvement in the U.S. and some stability in Brazil, global new cases interrupted (maybe temporarily) their upward trend

  • Copom: fiscally dependent  

    The text does not formally close the door to additional easing, but indicates that, if any, it will be even more gradual than today’s move.

  • Recovering industrial production  

    Widespread growth

  • $8.1 billion trade surplus in July  

    the decline in economic activity continues to yield strong trade surpluses

  • Primary deficit of BRL 188.7 billion in June  

    Fiscal deterioration, amid a pandemic

  • Households lead growth in non-earmarked loans in June  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.0% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Coronavirus monitor: spike in Brazil may be caused by data adjustments  

    The state of São Paulo found problems that may also have distorted the data of other locations

  • Fourth consecutive monthly surplus in the current account  

    Lower pressure on the service and income deficit yields fourth consecutive current account surplus

  • Copom Cockpit: a 25-bp cut  

    Despite the already low level, the additional Selic rate cut would be mainly driven by recent inflation data, which was lower than expected

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.30% in July and 2.13% yoy  

    Weaker-than-expected IPCA-15 in July. Inflation dynamics remain benign.

  • Coronavirus monitor: new cases retreat in Brazil  

    In Brazil, slower growth of cases in the smaller cities may mean that the peak is already behind.

  • Coronavirus monitor: indicators are stable in Brazil  

    Over the past days, the countries with most significant increases of new cases per capita were the U.S., South Africa, Colombia and India

  • Monthly GDP expands 2.8% mom/sa in May  

    Retail stands out positively during the month

  • IPCA rises 0.26% in June and 2.13% yoy  

    July’s IPCA inflation below expectations. Core inflation measures remain on a benign path.

  • Coronavirus monitor: the outbreak in India continues to grow  

    Brazil in maps: starting with this edition, we will feature state-level comparative maps.

  • Broad retail sales advance 19.6% mom/sa in May  

    Gains topped expectations and were widespread across sectors

  • Industrial production climbs 7.0% mom/sa in May  

    Widespread growth across sectors.

  • $7.5 billion trade surplus in June  

    We forecast a wide trade surplus this year as imports fall more sharply than exports

  • Coronavirus monitor: US back in the spotlight  

    In Brazil, cases are growing faster in smaller cities, while capitals have a less explosive curve of new cases, and declining new deaths

  • Primary deficit of BRL 131.4 billion in May  

    Fiscal accounts will deteriorate in 2020

  • Lower participation rate prevents steeper growth in unemployment rate  

    Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.6% in May

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in May, dragged by corporate loans  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: new scenario revision  

    The QIR shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the maintenance of the Selic rate at a low level for a prolonged period.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.02% in June and 1.92% yoy  

    IPCA-15 close to zero in June. Core inflation measures below expectations.

  • Another monthly surplus in the current account  

    Continuing declines in the current account deficit are expected in the coming months.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil had worse numbers at the margin  

    Data on new cases and new deaths rose again in the country, after showing some stability.

  • Copom Minutes: caution ahead  

    The Copom minutes reinforce the perception that the authorities will not move in the next policy meeting

  • Monthly GDP drops 8.4% mom/sa in April  

    PM-Itaú posts the sharpest decline in the series

  • Copom: door slightly ajar to further easing, but the bar is high  

    The statement did not clearly close the door to additional easing, but its tone suggests that this is not the base case .

  • Coronavirus monitor: renewed signs of stabilization in Brazil  

    Over the last weeks, new cases and new deaths have been broadly flat in Brazil

  • Broad retail sales decline by less than expected in April  

    Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April

  • Coronavirus monitor: the global recovery continues  

    Developed countries continue to recover, while Brazil gains some traction again.

  • IPCA falls 0.38% in May and rises 1.88% year-over-year  

    IPCA posted a 0.38% deflation in May. Core inflation measures remain subdued.

  • Copom Cockpit: a second 75-bp cut  

    Copom will take Selic rate to 2.25% p.a. and may signal an interruption of monetary adjustment for now.

  • Industrial production receded 18.8% seasonally-adjusted in April  

    Important differences within sectors

  • Coronavirus monitor: new deaths lose momentum in Brazil  

    The improvement is clear only in the northern region. To confirm a trend reversal, other regions must follow.

  • Trade surplus of $4.5 billion in May  

    The May trade balance continued to show the slowdown in global trade and, in particular, the decline in domestic economic activity

  • Primary deficit of BRL 94.3 billion in April  

    The consolidated primary deficit over 12 months increased to 2.3% from 0.9% of GDP.

  • 1Q20 GDP recedes 1.5% qoq/sa, in line with expectations  

    The result was in line with expectations (mkt: -1.5%; Itaú: -1.4%)

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in April  

    The overall delinquency rate was virtually stable at 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Falling participation rate prevents steeper grow in unemployment  

    Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.1% in April.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil leads the emerging market outbreak  

    Brazil leads the group of emerging countries with accelerating outbreaks, followed by Peru, Mexico, India and South Africa, among others.

  • IPCA-15 falls 0.59% in May and is up by 1.96% yoy  

    Lower prices for fuel and airline tickets contributed to the deflation in the month. Core inflation measures remain low.

  • Sharp correction in external accounts in April  

    In the coming months, we expect new declines in the current account deficit.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil at center stage  

    Russia and Brazil now occupy, respectively, the second and third global position in terms of total cases, only behind the U.S.

  • COVID-19 monitor: Brazil, Russia and India in the eye of the hurricane  

    In Brazil, the death ratio is increasing fast in Rio. North and NE regions continue to see strong per capita increases of new cases and deaths.

  • Broad retail sales fall 13.7% mom/sa in March  

    Supermarket sales prevent a sharper decline

  • Copom Minutes: 75-bp cut ahead, despite fiscal risks  

    We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting

  • IPCA falls 0.31% in April and is up by 2.40% year-over-year  

    April's IPCA posted a 0.31% monthly deflation, leading the 12-month reading to 2.4%.

  • Copom: boldly toward the future  

    The Copom cut the base rate to 3.0% pa (we expected a more modest move, to 3.25%) and signaled one final cut in June.

  • Industrial production drops 9.1% mom/sa in March  

    Widespread contraction seen in the first month of social distancing

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Large output gap calls for significant monetary easing  

    Given the deterioration of the economic outlook, another 50bps cut this month is likely

  • $6.7 billion trade surplus in April  

    Larger-than-expected exports in the last week of the month yield stronger trade surplus in April

  • Copom Cockpit: Resuming the easing cycle  

    We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 50 bps, to 3.25% pa, and to signal caution regarding additional movements.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 23.7 billion in March  

    Fiscal result will worsen in 2020

  • Unemployment rate below expectations due to declining workforce  

    Drop in the workforce prevents higher unemployment

  • COVID-19 monitor: the week starts with worsening data in Brazil  

    The outbreak in Brazil is still more concentrated in the Southeast, but spreading fast.

  • New corporate loans soar in March  

    Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms

  • IPCA-15 moves -0.01% in April and is up by 2.92% yoy  

    IPCA-15 falls -0.01% in April with core inflation measures lower than expected

  • Current account surplus of $868 million in March  

    $868 million current account surplus in March due to surprises in both services and income accounts

  • COVID-19 monitor: stabilization signs in the U.S.  

    Brazil seems to have a “seasonal” effect: softer data during weekends, with jumps on Tuesdays.

  • IPCA moves 0.07% in March and 3.30% year-over-year  

    March’s IPCA inflation came in at 0.07% mom, slightly below market expectations

  • COVID-19 monitor: Europe approaches a turning point  

    Numbers in Brazil are evolving more favorably, but this may be caused by reporting problems.

  • Retail sales increased 0.7% mom/sa in February  

    Supermarket sales reinforce positive monthly result

  • Coronavirus advances globally  

    Governments in several countries, including Brazil, have announced measures to stimulate the economy.

  • Seasonally adjusted industrial production increases 0.5% in February  

    Positive capital and intermediate goods production

  • COVID-19 monitor: U.S. becomes the center of the crisis  

    The U.S. leads new cases, while Europe seems about to peak.

  • Wider than expected trade surplus in March  

    Stronger-than-expected exports yield higher-than-antecipated trade surplus in March

  • Primary deficit of BRL 20.9 billion in February  

    Primary result will temporarily deteriorate due to coronavirus crisis.

  • Seasonally adjusted unemployment remains stable at 11.5% in February  

    Equal growth in employment and workforce prevents a decline in unemployment

  • New non-earmarked loans increase in February  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 3.0% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: revising the outlook  

    The inflation report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with further rate cuts in 2020

  • IPCA-15 moves 0.02% in March and 3.67% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.02% in March. We forecast a 0.07% increase for the CPI at the end of this month.

  • COVID-19 monitor: news cases accelerate in Brazil and the U.S.  

    Recent numbers: cases continue to grow worldwide, driven by Europe and the U.S.

  • $3.9 billion current account deficit in February  

    In the coming months, the current account deficit is expected to recede due to slower economic activity and a weaker exchange rate.

  • Copom Minutes: Busy BCB Day  

    We expect the Copom to cut again once the market situation calms down, taking the Selic to 3.25% p.a., not necessarily in the next meeting.

  • Copom: a hawkish cut?  

    The Copom reduced the Selic rate to 3.75% pa and stated that, for now, they see base rate stability as adequate.

  • Copom Cockpit: Easing with caution  

    We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.0% per year.

  • IPCA climbs 0.25% in February and 4.01% year-over-year  

    Core inflation measures remain at comfortable levels.

  • Industrial production increases 0.9% mom/sa in January  

    Capital goods production was the main positive highlight.

  • GDP expands 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q19  

    Consumer spending and investment on the rise, exports and government spending decline in 2019

  • Rising exports ensure wider-than-expected trade surplus in February  

    The trade balance in February was positive by $3.1 billion, beating our forecast and market estimates

  • Seasonally adjusted unemployment reaches 11.5% in January  

    Participation rate supports the decline in unemployment during the month

  • Primary surplus of BRL 56.3 billion in January  

    Largest primary surplus for the month

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in January  

    Overall delinquency was virtually stable at 3.0%.

  • $11.9 billion current account deficit in January  

    The retreat in the service and income deficits could not offset the decline in trade balance in January

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.22% in February and 4.21% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.22% in February. Core inflation measures remain subdued

  • Monthly GDP drops 0.8% mom/sa in December  

    Widespread weakness

  • Broad retail sales fall 0.8% mom/sa in December  

    Widespread weakness in the retail sector

  • COPOM Minutes: on hold, but divided  

    The text points to unchanged interest rates for the time being – we expect the Selic rate to end the year at the present 4.25%.

  • IPCA climbs 0.21% in January and reaches 4.19% year-over-year  

    IPCA below expectations in January

  • Copom: interrupting the cycle  

    The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) cut the Selic rate to 4.25% p.a. and decided to interrupt the easing cycle.

  • Industrial production drops 0.7% mom/sa in December  

    Investment-related components cool down in December

  • Imported oil-drilling rigs lead to $1.7 billion trade deficit in January  

    Capital goods imports were inflated by transactions involving oil-drilling rigs in the final week of the month

  • Copom Cockpit: 25-bp cut in the first meeting of the year  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.25% p.a. in its February 4-5 meeting.

  • 2019 ends with seasonally-adjusted unemployment at 11.6%  

    Participation rate supports the decline in unemployment in late 2019

  • Primary deficit of BRL 62 billion (-0.9% of GDP) in 2019  

    Fiscal prints are gradually improving

  • Continuing growth in new non-earmarked loans  

    Interest rates and the average spread declined

  • Current account deficit ends 2019 at 2.8% of GDP  

    The current account posted a $5.7 bn deficit in December, leading the 2019 deficit to $50.8 bn (2.8% of GDP)

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.71% in January and 4.34% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.71% in January. We forecast a 0.29% increase for the CPI at the end of this month.

  • Monthly GDP drops 0.3% mom/sa in November  

    Widespread declines in components

  • Broad retail sales recede after expanding for eight months  

    Advance in core retail sales and drop in the broad concept

  • IPCA climbs 1.15% in December and ends the year at 4.31%  

    IPCA rises 1.15% in December and closes 2019 at 4.31%

  • Industrial production recedes 1.2% in November  

    Manufacturing recedes after three consecutive monthly increases

  • $46.7 billion trade surplus in 2019  

    The trade surplus declined in 2019, but remained at a historically-high level.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 15.3 billion in November  

    The consolidated primary deficit over 12 months receded to 1.2% of GDP from 1.3% in the previous month.

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment declines to 11.7%  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards

  • Corporate borrowers drive growth in new non-earmarked loans in November  

    Overall delinquency rose 0.1 p.p. to 3.0% in seasonally-adjusted terms.

  • IPCA-15 climbed 1.05% in December and ends the year at 3.91  

    IPCA-15 rises 1.05% in December due to higher beef prices

  • Current account deficit below expectations in November, with surprise in the services account  

    The main surprise came from the equipment rental account, which is typically volatile. At the margin, the current account deficit is narrower.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: evidences support new rate cuts  

    The IR reinforces our belief that the monetary authority will see room to reduce the Selic rate again.

  • Copom Minutes: data dependent, with some dissent  

    While the written text indicates a somewhat hawkish tone, we understand that inflation forecasts allow lower interest rates ahead.

  • Monthly GDP expands 0.7% mom/sa in October  

    Widespread growth in October.

  • Copom: Leaving the door open for further cuts  

    The statement does not commit to additional rate cuts, but does not rule them out either.

  • Retail sales sustain upward trend  

    Retail sales advance in October


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