Itaú BBA - Macro Brazil
  • Evening Edition – Brazilian pension reform proposal confirms expectations  

    The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions

  • Monthly GDP retreats in December  

    Losses in 9 out of 13 monthly GDP components

  • Retail sales recede in December, driven by payback of Black Friday effects and decline in vehicle sa  

    Result below expectations

  • COPOM Minutes: economic activity still consistent with base case  

    The minutes reinforce the case for stable Selic rate at the 6.5% in coming meetings, barring any significant shocks.

  • IPCA rises 0.32% in January, printing below estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.28% increase

  • Copom: a last (hawkish) salvo  

    The Copom decision came in as expected, but the message was more hawkish than we had anticipated.

  • Industrial production climbs 0.2% in December and 1.1% in 2018  

    The data breakdown indicates that the underlying growth is worse than the headline.

  • Trade surplus of $2.2 billion in January  

    January figures point to a slight moderation in the trade balance, but the trade surplus remains at a historically high level

  • Unemployment increases in 4Q18  

    The result suggests that the output gap opened again during that quarter

  • Copom Cockpit: conditional stability  

    We believe that the Copom will keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a. at the February meeting.

  • Primary deficit of 108 billion reais (1.6% of GDP) in 2018  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • New non-earmarked loans climb again in December  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually flat at 3.0%

  • Current account deficit of 0.8% of GDP in 2018  

    Smaller trade surplus drove current account deficit to 0.8% of GDP in 2018

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.30% in January, somewhat below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in January is a 0.40% increase

  • Monthly GDP expands in November  

    Household spending climbed while investment fell in November

  • Retail sales beat expectations in November, driven by Black Friday  

    We forecast sales to decline in December, as the temporary boost from Black Friday fades

  • IPCA ends 2018 with a 3.75% increase  

    For January, our preliminary estimate for the IPCA is a 0.42% increase

  • Disappointing industrial production in November  

    Our preliminary estimate for December is a hike of 1.2% at the margin

  • $58 billion trade surplus in 2018  

    The trade balance posted a strong surplus for a fourth consecutive year.

  • Primary deficit of 15.6 billion reais in November  

    2018 Primary result should be much better than the target

  • Stable unemployment in November  

    Real wage bill expanded due to slightly higher employment

  • Households lead increase in new non-earmarked loans in November  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually flat at 3.0%.

  • IPCA-15 posts 0.16% deflation in December and ends 2018 with a 3.86% increase  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in December is a 0.18% increase, ending the year at 3.78%

  • Lower-than-expected income deficit leads to narrower current account deficit in November  

    Current account deficit remains at a historically-low level

  • Inflation Report: Forecasts point to stable Selic rate in 2019  

    Central Bank's forecasts are consistent with stable Selic rate at the current level of 6.5% pa throughout 2019

  • COPOM Minutes: Comfortable with Selic rate at 6.5% p.a.  

    The minutes reinforce the outlook that the Selic rate will hibernate at the current level for quite some time, barring significant shocks

  • Monthly GDP expands in October  

    Investment and consumption remained stable during the month

  • Retail sales slide again in October  

    For the time being, we forecast stagnation in core and broad retail sales in November, in seasonally-adjusted terms

  • Copom: low for long reinforced  

    The statement brought important changes, all on the benign side for prospective inflation

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in December  

    Brazil´s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets again next week and we expect it will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a.

  • IPCA has 0.21% deflation in November, printing below the lowest of market estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in December is a 0.17% increase

  • Industrial production rises 0.2% in October  

    Weakness still reflects tighter financial conditions in 3Q18

  • Stronger trade surplus at the margin  

    November figures suggest a stronger trade balance in 4Q18, led by exports of basic items

  • Primary surplus of 7.8 billion reais in October  

    Short-term fiscal results are improving

  • GDP expands 0.8% in 3Q18  

    The result was distorted by the direct effects of the truckers’ stoppages in 2Q18.

  • Unemployment is virtually unchanged in October  

    Formal jobs hasn't shown an improvement yet

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in October, but upward trend continues  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency decreased 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts a $329 million surplus in October  

    Despite the weaker than expected reading, the current account deficit receded at the margin.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.19% and prints below expectations in November  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in November is a drop of 0.05%

  • Monthly GDP declines in September  

    Consumption declined in September, but investment expanded

  • Retail sales fall in September  

    Weak result may reflect a normalization after a month benefited by withdrawals from accounts held under PIS/PASEP programs.

  • IPCA rose 0.45% in October, below the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in November is a 0.05% move

  • COPOM Minutes: Steady rates for long  

    Forecasts in line with the targeted path suggest rates may be on course to hibernate for quite some time

  • $6.1 billion trade surplus in October  

    October figures showed a wider trade surplus at the margin.

  • Industrial production declines in September  

    Widespread decline in September

  • Copom: less asymmetric risks  

    The statement brings few but relevant changes, noting that risks have become less asymmetric

  • Gains in informal jobs push unemployment down  

    No noticeable improvement in formal employment yet

  • Primary deficit of 24.6 billion reais in September  

    Fiscal result for the year should be better than the target

  • New non-earmarked loans increase in September  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 3.0%. Average interest rates and spreads declined.

  • $32 million current account surplus in September  

    The current account deficit narrowed at the margin in September, but remains stable at 0.8% of GDP over 12 months

  • Copom Cockpit: Selic stable in October amid more balanced risks for inflation  

    We believe that Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a. at the October meeting

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.58% in October, printing below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in October is a 0.55% increase

  • Monthly GDP expands in August  

    Gains in 7 out of 13 monthly GDP components

  • Retail sales increase in August  

    Better-than-expected readings

  • IPCA climbed 0.48% in September, slightly above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in October is a 0.53% increase

  • Falling oil production is behind the decline in industrial production in August  

    A lower than expected result

  • $5.0 billion trade surplus in September  

    September figures showed some increase in the trade surplus at the margin.

  • Primary deficit of 16.9 billion reais in August  

    Short-term fiscal results are better than expected

  • Informal jobs prompt drop in unemployment  

    The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell 0.1 p.p. to 12.2% in the quarter ended in August

  • Inflation Report: close call  

    Copom´s inflation forecasts indicate that the Selic rate can be kept constant in the coming meetings.

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked corporate loans decreases again  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.2% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment

  • COPOM Minutes: ready to act  

    Faced with a balance of risks that is tilted towards higher inflation, the Copom stands ready to act.

  • Current account deficit: Stability at the margin  

    The current account deficit was stable at the margin last month, but wider than in 2017

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, below the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.46% increase

  • Copom: stable rates, for now  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa

  • Monthly GDP expands in July  

    Headline reading is stronger than diffusion indicated

  • Retail sales decline in July  

    First year-over-year drop in 16 months

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic in September amid growing uncertainties  

    We believe that the current situation is still consistent with a stable Selic rate at 6.5% in the next meeting

  • IPCA shows deflation in August (-0.09%)  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.40% increase

  • Industrial production falls 0.2% in July  

    Output remains above pre-stoppages levels

  • $3.8 billion trade surplus in August  

    August trade surplus figures showed moderation at the margin

  • GDP rises 0.2% in 2Q18 as underlying growth loses momentum  

    Growth negatively affected by the truckers’ stoppages in May

  • Primary deficit of 3.4 billion reais in July  

    Short-term data improve

  • Unemployment recedes to 12.3% in July  

    Employment advanced 0.3% qoq after consecutive declines in recent months

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked corporate loans plummets in July  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.5% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment.

  • Current account deficit reaches $4.4 billion in July  

    The current account deficit moderated at the margin in July

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.13% in August, slightly above the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in August is -0.02%

  • Normalization in monthly GDP in June  

    1.4% growth in June

  • No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in retail sales in June  

    Auto and construction material recovered, but supermarket and fuel sales recede further

  • IPCA rose 0.33% in July, above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in August is a 0.03% move

  • COPOM Minutes: Selic rate to remain stable in September, in the absence of new shocks  

    Copom minutes signal stable policy rate at 6.50% in its next meeting.

  • Industrial production goes back to normal in June  

    Industrial production soared 13.1% mom/sa

  • Copom: two way risks, but no move for the time being  

    The Copom took the universally expected decision, leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.50% pa, without a bias, in an unanimous vote

  • Imports of oil-drilling rigs reduce the trade surplus in July  

    Weaker trade balance at the margin, due to higher imports, led by purchases of oil-drilling rigs under the Repetro-Sped regime

  • Unemployment falls to 12.4% in June  

    Participation rate remains in a downward trend

  • Primary deficit of 13.5 billion reais in June  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • New non-earmarked corporate loans increase in June  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans climbed 1.6% mom/sa in real terms

  • $435 million current account surplus in June  

    The current account deficit showed moderation at the margin in June, given the narrower trade surplus

  • Copom Cockpit: relatively unchanged balance of risks  

    We believe that the current scenario is consistent with the maintenance of the Selic rate at next week’s meeting

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.64% in July, below the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in July points to an increase of 0.28%

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP falls 1.2% in May  

    Truckers’ protest was behind the weak reading

  • Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May  

    Breakdown shows widespread decline

  • IPCA rises 1.26% in June, close to the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in July is a 0.35% increase

  • Truckers’ stoppage affected industrial production in May  

    Coincident indicators signal normalization in June

  • $30 billion trade surplus in 1H18  

    The trade balance seems to have stabilized on a lower level than in the beginning of the year

  • Primary budget deficit of 8.2 billion reais in May  

    Fiscal rebalancing remains challenging

  • Unemployment reaches 12.7% in May  

    Lower participation rate offsets decline in employment

  • Inflation Report: inflation forecasts reinforce a scenario of stable Selic rate  

    Brazil´s Central Bank models point to inflation below or close to target in all scenarios for 2018, 2019 and 2020.

  • New non-earmarked loans and delinquency fell in May  

    Average interest rates and spreads receded

  • COPOM Minutes: no imminent action, in a more uncertain environment  

    The minutes reinforce the message that forward guidance has been abandoned, for the time being, given the currently uncertain environment.

  • $729 million current account surplus in May  

    At the margin, the current account deficit increased somewhat in May

  • IPCA-15 climbed 1.11% in June, topping the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in June points to an increase of 1.37%.

  • Copom to keep the Selic rate at 6.50%, if data allows it  

    The Copom kept the Selic rate at 6.50%, in line with our call and the market’s. We expect the Selic rate to remain at 6.50% until year-end.

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP expands 0.6% in April  

    Result was boosted by a higher number of working days

  • Copom Cockpit: stability amid a more challenging scenario  

    We believe that the current scenario, while certainly challenging, will lead the Copom to maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% at the June 19 and 20 meeting

  • Retail sales rise in April and continue upward trend  

    Result influenced by fewer holidays in the month.

  • IPCA rises 0.40% in May, above expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in June is an increase of about 1%

  • Industrial production expands 0.8% in April  

    The latest result was boosted by a higher-than-average number of working days for the month

  • Sharper-than-expected drop in exports in May  

    Exports declined sharply in the final week of the month, reflecting the impact of the truckers’ strike

  • Small primary surplus in April  

    The surplus reflects the month’s favorable seasonality

  • GDP rises 0.4% in 1Q18, extending gradual recovery  

    GDP breakdown shows a slightly better picture for domestic demand than the headline result suggests

  • Unemployment reaches 12.9% in April  

    Slide in seasonally-adjusted unemployment was driven by declining participation rate

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked loans declines sharply among corporations in April  

    Average interest rates and spreads receded.

  • Current account deficit: stability at the margin  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit remains low

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.14% in May, below the lowest of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in May points to a 0.25% increase

  • Copom minutes: Stable rate in the baseline scenario  

    In our baseline scenario, the Selic rate will remain stable at 6.5% until year-end.

  • Copom: When facts change  

    The Copom decided to end the easing cycle leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.5%

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP expands 0.3% in 1Q18  

    PM-Itaú increases 0.1% in March.

  • Retail sales rise in March and continue upward trend  

    Better than expected result, driven by vehicles and fuel

  • Copom Cockpit: End of the cycle  

    We believe that the Copom will follow the path presented in the March meeting and announce a final 25bp-reduction in the Selic in May.

  • IPCA rises 0.22% in April, below expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in May is a 0.35% increase

  • Industrial production falls 0.1% in March, disappointing expectations  

    Weakness was widespread, with declines in 14 out of 24 activities

  • Polls highlight election uncertainty  

    The Datafolha poll updated the election scenario in Brazil, which remains undefined

  • Trade surplus of $6.1 billion in April  

    April figures continued to show a large trade surplus, notwithstanding the small decline at the margin.

  • Primary deficit of 25 billion reais in March  

    Fiscal rebalancing will only come with reforms

  • Unemployment rises to 13.1% in March  

    Using our seasonal adjustment, unemployment was stable at 12.5%

  • New non-earmarked loans decline after strong increase in February  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.3%

  • Lower interest expenses ensure current account surplus in March  

    Lower-than-expected interest expenses were behind the biggest deviation from our call.

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.21% in April, slightly below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in April points to a 0.30% increase

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP climbs 0.5% in February  

    Monthly increase is consistent with manufacturing and service readings

  • Retail sales decline in February  

    Diffusion of sectors is consistent with headline

  • IPCA up by 0.09% in March and 0.70% in 1Q18  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in April is a 0.35% increase

  • Industrial production rises by a disappointing 0.2% in February  

    Weakness was driven by declines in extraction and mining, and pharmaceuticals

  • Strong trade surplus in 1Q18  

    Readings for the beginning of 2018 mean some upside to our call due to rising exports

  • Unemployment reaches 12.6% in February  

    The real wage bill expanded 3.7% yoy and 0.3% vs. the quarter ended in November

  • Inflation report: inflation forecasts support an additional 25-bp rate cut in May  

    We expect the Selic rate to be cut to 6.25% in May, remaining at this level until at least the end of the year.

  • Primary deficit of 17 billion reais in February  

    Fiscal data shows better result in the short term

  • COPOM Minutes: one step towards the end  

    The core message of the Copom minutes is that a further cut in the May meeting is warranted, but the easing cycle will likely be interrupted after that.

  • New non-earmarked loans soar in February  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans climbed 7.2% mom/sa in real terms

  • Current account surplus reaches $283 million in February  

    Despite a good headline at the margin, we do not expect the current account deficit to remain so low throughout the year

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.10% in March, in line with expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in March points to a 0.13% increase

  • Copom: Further stimulus ahead  

    We are revising our end-cycle call to 6.25%pa, and we will wait for the policy meeting minutes for extra clues on the authorities’ thinking.

  • Copom Cockpit: one more stimulus  

    We expect the Copom to announce a 25-bp cut after its meeting on March 20 and 21

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP declines 0.4% in January  

    Monthly slide was driven by industrial production and services

  • Core retail sales in January point to another gain in consumer spending in 1Q18  

    Broad and core retail sales accelerated on a quarterly basis

  • IPCA climbed 0.32% in February, driven by education and transportation prices  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in March is a 0.15% advance

  • Industrial production: January decline does not change upward trend  

    Change in seasonality is behind seemingly-weak result at the margin

  • $4.9 billion trade surplus in February  

    February figures showed a stronger trade surplus at the margin, due to an oil drilling rig export.

  • GDP expands 0.1% in 4Q17 and 1.0% in 2017  

    Better underlying growth than suggested by the headline quarterly result

  • Higher participation rate lifts unemployment in January  

    Informal employment was virtually stable in seasonally-adjusted terms in the last two releases

  • A good start: 47 billion reais primary surplus in January  

    Meeting the primary target of the year will be less challenging

  • New non-earmarked loans decline after sharp December hike  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency went up 0.1 p.p. in January to 3.4%.

  • Current account deficit reaches $4.3 billion in January  

    The deficit remained at a low level, thanks to the good performance of the trade balance and the surplus in profits and dividends

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.38% in February, led by education and transportation costs  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February points to a 0.35% increase

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP advances 0.5% in December  

    In 4Q17, the indicator went up 0.1% qoq/sa, in line with our call for official GDP in the same period.

  • Copom Minutes: near the end  

    We stick to the view that 6.75% pa is the resting place of the Selic at the end of this cycle.

  • Retail sales increased 2.0% in 2017  

    Sales decline 1.5% in December

  • IPCA rose 0.29% in January, below the bottom of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.43% advance

  • Copom: Signaling the end  

    We are revising our call for the end cycle Selic from 6.5% to 6.75% - which we expect to prevail throughout the year.

  • $2.8 billion trade surplus in January  

    January figures showed continuing stabilization of the trade surplus at the margin.

  • Copom Cockpit: Pace reduction to a 25-bp cut  

    We expect the Copom to announce a 25-bp rate cut after its meeting on February 6 and 7.

  • Industrial production soars in December; 2017 at the fastest annual pace since 2010  

    Industrial production rose 2.8% mom/sa in December, above expectations.

  • Primary deficit of 111 billion reais (1.7% of GDP) in 2017  

    Better result doesn’t change challenging fiscal scenario

  • Unemployment drops in December, with decreasing reliance on informal jobs  

    Unemployment slid 0.1pp to 12.4%, driven by a small decline in the participation rate.

  • New non-earmarked loans expand while delinquency declines in December  

    Overall interest rates and average spreads declined

  • The narrowest current account deficit since 2007  

    The current account narrowed to $9.8 billion or 0.5% of GDP

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.39% in January, slightly below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in January points to a 0.37% increase

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP advances in November  

    Widespread increase among components

  • IPCA ended 2017 up by 2.95%, slightly below the lower bound of the inflation target range  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in January is a 0.32% advance

  • Black Friday supports strong retail sales in November  

    The result came above the median of market expectation

  • Industrial production increases 0.2% in November, above expectations  

    Indicators related to gross fixed capital formation were consistent with positive growth

  • All-time high trade surplus in 2017  

    We expect a smaller surplus in 2018 ($55 billion) due to lower commodity prices and to the rebound in economic activity.

  • Unemployment declines again in November  

    Informal jobs are still behind the decline in unemployment

  • Small primary deficit in November  

    Without reforms, fiscal imbalance will continue

  • New non-earmarked corporate loans expand again in November  

    Overall interest rates and average spreads declined.

  • IPCA-15 ends 2017 with a 2.94% increase  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in December is 0.30%

  • Inflation report: prepare for landing  

    The IR released today shows that the signaling of slower easing, leading to the end of the cycle in 1Q18, remains.

  • Current account deficit reaches $2.4 billion in November  

    The current account deficit will likely end 2017 at a low level, supported by strong trade surplus

  • Disappointing retail sales in October  

    Weakness was widespread across multiple sectors

  • Copom Minutes: slightly uncomfortable  

    The minutes outline a flight path for the Selic on its way to 6.75% by February, while the March decision is left open.

  • IPCA rises 0.28% in November, below the lowest of market estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in December is a 0.33% advance

  • Copom: As slow as possible  

    For now we stick with the view that the Copom will cut the Selic to 6.5%, in two 25bps increments.

  • Industrial production increases 0.2% in October and extends gradual rebound  

    The result was driven by a sharp hike in pharmaceutical production, reversing nearly the entire drop of the previous month.

  • Exports decline and trade balance loses momentum in November  

    November figures showed once again stabilization of the trade surplus at the margin

  • Revised path and strong demand in 3Q17 improve outlook for GDP in 2017  

    GDP rose 0.1% qoq/as in 3Q17.

  • Copom Cockpit: Slowdown to a 50 bps cut  

    A reduction of this magnitude would not be surprising, given the committee's recent communication.

  • Gains in informal jobs slowed down in October  

    Unemployment remains stable, according to our seasonal adjustment.

  • Temporary primary surplus in October  

    Without reforms, fiscal imbalance will continue

  • New non-earmarked loans expand again in October  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually unchanged at 3.6%

  • IPCA-15 prints below expectations in November, at 0.32%  

    Our forecast for the headline IPCA in November was revised downward to 0.38% from 0.50%

  • Lower interest expenses once again ensure better current account result  

    Once again the surprised lied in lower-than-expected interest expenses, and in the equipment rental account as well.

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    The better global growth is supportive of financial conditions and is good news for EM economies.

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP advances in September  

    0.6% qoq/sa increase in 3Q17

  • Retail sales rebound in September  

    Results were close to expectations

  • IPCA climbs 0.42% in October, led by regulated prices  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in November is a 0.50% advance

  • $5.2 billion trade surplus in October  

    The latest readings represent upside to our forecast for 2017, currently at $62 billion.

  • Industrial production increases 0.2% in September and extends gradual rebound  

    Headline weaker than expectations due to pharmaceutical production.

  • Labor market still driven by growth in informal jobs in 3Q17  

    The real wage bill expanded 3.9% yoy and 1.2% vs. 2Q17.

  • Copom Minutes: is the end coming?  

    We keep, for now, our call that the end will only come in February, with a final 50bps rate cut, taking the Selic to 6.5%pa.

  • Primary deficit of 21 billion reais in September  

    Without reforms, fiscal imbalance will continue


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