Itaú BBA - Macro Brazil
  • IPCA-15 rises 0.08% MoM in August and 3.22% YoY  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.08% in August. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Monthly GDP declines in June, but expands 0.5% in 2Q19  

    Result reinforces perception of weak economic activity

  • IPCA recedes to 3.22% in July  

    IPCA recedes to 3.22% in July. Core measures at comfortable levels

  • Retail sales disappoint market estimates in June  

    Consumption remains in a moderate recovery trend.

  • Copom minutes: Still pointing to a 50-bp cut in September  

    The minutes indicate another 50bps cut in September and we expect a Selic rate to reach 5.0% by the end of 2019

  • Stronger imports yield weaker trade surplus in July  

    Stronger imports yield weaker-than-expected trade surplus in July

  • Industrial production declines in June  

    Weakness in investment-related components

  • Unemployment rate stable at 11.9% seasonally-adjusted in June  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards

  • Copom: 50-bp cut, signaling another 50-bp adjustment ahead  

    The Copom reduced the interest rate by 0.50 pp and signaled an additional adjustment of the same magnitude at the next meeting.

  • Primary deficit of 12.7 billion reais in June  

    Reforms are essential to fiscal rebalancing

  • New non-earmarked loans rise again in June  

    New earmarked loans retreated 0.4%.

  • Copom Cockpit: 50bp-cut on the way  

    We expect the Copom to start a new easing cycle with a 50bps cut on July 31st

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in June  

    Larger-than-anticipated profit and dividend remittances were behind pressured the primary income balance in June

  • IPCA-15 moves 0.09% in July and year-over-year change recedes to 3.27%  

    IPCA- 15 July rises 0.09%, below expectations. Core measures on a benign trajectory.

  • Monthly GDP expands in May  

    Result is consistent with weak growth in 2Q19

  • Retail sales suggest moderate consumption growth in 2Q19  

    Broad retail sales (which include vehicles and construction material) advanced 0.2% mom/sa in May.

  • IPCA year-over-year change slides to 3.37%  

    IPCA is virtually unchanged in June. Food, electricity and auto fuels posted a deflation during the month.

  • Industrial production declines in May  

    Only 8 out of 26 activities show monthly gains

  • Exports and imports fall at the margin  

    In sum, June figures showed a lower trade balance at the margin, although the year-to-date reading remains high.

  • Primary deficit of 13 billion reais in May  

    The public sector’s net debt widened to 54.7% of GDP.

  • Unemployment rate declines in May  

    Notwithstanding the latest decline, unemployment remains high by historical standards.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: forecasts indicate new easing cycle in 2019  

    Central bank´s forecasts indicate new easing cycle in 2019.

  • New loans advance in May  

    Overall delinquency remained virtually unchanged at 2.9%, seasonally adjusted

  • COPOM Minutes: easing ahead, probably  

    The minutes reinforce our call that the Copom will resume easing in July, conditional on concrete progress in the reform front.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.06% in June and year-over-year change recedes to 3.84%  

    Deflation in food prices took the spotlight, with price drops for food consumed at home (-0.82%) and away from home (-0.33%).

  • Current account posts $664 million surplus in May  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit remains at a historically low level: 0.7% of GDP.

  • Copom: ready to resume easing, conditional on reform  

    The statement opens the way for a resumption of monetary easing, provided there is “concrete progress” in the reform agenda.

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in June  

    Conditional on the pension reform approval, we now expect a decline in the Selic benchmark interest rate to 5.0% in 2019 and 2020.

  • Monthly GDP expands in April  

    For May, we expect, for the time being, PM-Itaú to remain stable.

  • Retail sales weaker than expectations in April  

    Retail sales quarterly growth is slowing down.

  • IPCA rises 0.13% in May and year-over-year change reaches 4.66%  

    IPCA rises 0.13% in May reinforcing a benign inflation scenario

  • Industrial production grows in April, despite decline in mining output  

    Manufacturing is on a moderate recovery trend year-to-date.

  • $6.4 billion trade surplus in May  

    Stronger exports and imports in May. Trade surplus reaches $ 6.4 billion.

  • Still-high unemployment rate  

    Seasonally-adjusted unemployment declined 0.1 p.p. to 11.9%.

  • Primary surplus of 6.6 billion reais in April  

    April’s result is a seasonally surplus

  • GDP shrinks 0.2% in 1Q19  

    For 2Q19, our preliminary forecast is a modest GDP growth of 0.1% qoq/sa

  • Non-earmarked loans decline in April, dragged by corporate credit  

    Seasonally-adjusted delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts $62 million deficit in April  

    Seasonally-adjusted delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts $62 million deficit in April  

    Current account posts $62 million deficit in April and disappoints market expectations

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.35% in May and year-over-year change peaks at 4.93%  

    IPCA-15 climbs 0.35% in May. Deflation in prices for food consumed at home stood out, while auto fuels put pressured the index

  • COPOM Minutes: Selic rate still at comfortable level  

    The minutes suggest the Copom is still comfortable with the level of the Selic rate, but we expect the BCB to cut rates again in September.

  • Monthly GDP declines in March  

    The result reinforces our call for a contraction of GDP in 1Q19.

  • IPCA climbs 0.57% in April and year-over-year change peaks at 4.94%  

    Headline inflation accelerated on an annual basis pressured by food and fuels; but should begin a downward path from now on

  • Retail sales expand in March  

    Report reinforces scenario of a slight increase in consumer spending in 1Q19

  • Copom: acknowledging a weaker economy, but no imminent reaction  

    The post-meeting statement suggests that the authorities are less sanguine on the state of economic recovery

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in May  

    The Selic rate will likely be kept at 6.5% p.a. in May´s Copom meeting

  • Broad-based decline in industrial production  

    Result reinforces weakening trend in the industrial sector

  • $6.1 billion trade surplus in April  

    Trade surplus remains at historically-high figures

  • Primary deficit of R$ 18.6 billion in March  

    Fiscal challenges remain significant

  • Unemployment recedes in March  

    Employment advanced in the quarter

  • New non-earmarked loans continue to expand in March  

    Seasonally-adjusted delinquency remained virtually flat at 3.0%.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.72% in April, while core measures continue to show a benign trajectory  

    IPCA-15 climbs 0.72% in April, while core measures continue to show a benign trajectory

  • $494 million current account deficit in March  

    Current account deficit at historically low levels

  • Monthly GDP stable in February  

    Domestic demand components receded during the month

  • IPCA climbed 0.75% in March and 1.51% in 1Q19  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.75% in March, food consumed at home is behind the surprise.

  • Retail sales remained stable in February  

    Result reinforces assessment of weakness in 1Q19

  • Weak industrial production, driven by sharp drop in the extractive sector  

    For March’s industrial production, we now forecast a 0.1% mom/sa decrease, leading the year-over-year rate to -3.9%.

  • $5.0 billion trade surplus in March  

    Exports weakened at the margin

  • Primary deficit of 14.9 billion reais in February  

    The general government’s gross debt increased marginally to 77.4% of GDP in February.

  • Still-high unemployment rate  

    Brazil’s nation-wide unemployment rate reached 12.4% in the quarter ended in February.

  • Inflation Report: Forecasts still point to stable Selic rate in 2019  

    The IR shows forecasts that are consistent with stability of the Selic rate at the current level, in line with our scenario.

  • New loans increase in February  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency remained virtually stable at 2.9%.

  • Copom Minutes: Waiting for clarity  

    For the time being, given all the uncertainty surrounding the central scenario, we expect the Selic to remain unchanged in coming meetings.

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.54% in March, driven by food prices  

    We expect a 0.59% increase in March's IPCA - food is likely to keep pressuring

  • Current account deficit reaches $1.1 billion in February  

    Stable current account deficit at the margin in February

  • Copom: symmetric risks, no rush to act  

    The Copom decided to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 6.5% pa, as widely expected, and now sees the balance of risks as symmetric.

  • Copom Cockpit: Central bank under new leadership, but Selic rate is set to remain stable  

    Copom should keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% pa and be cautious about the balance of risks to inflation

  • Monthly GDP is stable in January  

    Mixed data

  • Retail sales climb 0.4% in January  

    Normalization after Black Friday effects

  • Industrial production slides 0.8% in January  

    The result reinforces the perception of weak economic growth in early 2019

  • IPCA climbed 0.43% in February, close to our estimate  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in March is a 0.51% increase

  • Seasonal primary surplus in January  

    January result has favorable seasonality

  • $3.7 billion trade surplus in February  

    The trade surplus reached a $ 3.7 surplus in February and the trade surplus remains at a high level.

  • GDP expands 0.1% in 4Q18 and 1.1% in 2018  

    The reading reinforces the perception of weak growth in late 2018.

  • Higher-than-expected unemployment in January  

    Unemployment drops only 0.1 p.p. over 12 months amid weak economic growth

  • New loans decline in January  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 2.9%

  • $6.5 billion current account deficit in January  

    Smaller trade surplus drives current account deficit to $6.5 billion in January

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.34% in February, close to the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February is a 0.38% increase

  • Monthly GDP retreats in December  

    Losses in 9 out of 13 monthly GDP components

  • Retail sales recede in December, driven by payback of Black Friday effects and decline in vehicle sa  

    Result below expectations

  • COPOM Minutes: economic activity still consistent with base case  

    The minutes reinforce the case for stable Selic rate at the 6.5% in coming meetings, barring any significant shocks.

  • IPCA rises 0.32% in January, printing below estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.28% increase

  • Copom: a last (hawkish) salvo  

    The Copom decision came in as expected, but the message was more hawkish than we had anticipated.

  • Industrial production climbs 0.2% in December and 1.1% in 2018  

    The data breakdown indicates that the underlying growth is worse than the headline.

  • Trade surplus of $2.2 billion in January  

    January figures point to a slight moderation in the trade balance, but the trade surplus remains at a historically high level

  • Unemployment increases in 4Q18  

    The result suggests that the output gap opened again during that quarter

  • Copom Cockpit: conditional stability  

    We believe that the Copom will keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a. at the February meeting.

  • Primary deficit of 108 billion reais (1.6% of GDP) in 2018  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • New non-earmarked loans climb again in December  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually flat at 3.0%

  • Current account deficit of 0.8% of GDP in 2018  

    Smaller trade surplus drove current account deficit to 0.8% of GDP in 2018

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.30% in January, somewhat below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in January is a 0.40% increase

  • Monthly GDP expands in November  

    Household spending climbed while investment fell in November

  • Retail sales beat expectations in November, driven by Black Friday  

    We forecast sales to decline in December, as the temporary boost from Black Friday fades

  • IPCA ends 2018 with a 3.75% increase  

    For January, our preliminary estimate for the IPCA is a 0.42% increase

  • Disappointing industrial production in November  

    Our preliminary estimate for December is a hike of 1.2% at the margin

  • $58 billion trade surplus in 2018  

    The trade balance posted a strong surplus for a fourth consecutive year.

  • Primary deficit of 15.6 billion reais in November  

    2018 Primary result should be much better than the target

  • Stable unemployment in November  

    Real wage bill expanded due to slightly higher employment

  • Households lead increase in new non-earmarked loans in November  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency was virtually flat at 3.0%.

  • IPCA-15 posts 0.16% deflation in December and ends 2018 with a 3.86% increase  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in December is a 0.18% increase, ending the year at 3.78%

  • Lower-than-expected income deficit leads to narrower current account deficit in November  

    Current account deficit remains at a historically-low level

  • Inflation Report: Forecasts point to stable Selic rate in 2019  

    Central Bank's forecasts are consistent with stable Selic rate at the current level of 6.5% pa throughout 2019

  • COPOM Minutes: Comfortable with Selic rate at 6.5% p.a.  

    The minutes reinforce the outlook that the Selic rate will hibernate at the current level for quite some time, barring significant shocks

  • Monthly GDP expands in October  

    Investment and consumption remained stable during the month

  • Retail sales slide again in October  

    For the time being, we forecast stagnation in core and broad retail sales in November, in seasonally-adjusted terms

  • Copom: low for long reinforced  

    The statement brought important changes, all on the benign side for prospective inflation

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate in December  

    Brazil´s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets again next week and we expect it will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a.

  • IPCA has 0.21% deflation in November, printing below the lowest of market estimates  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in December is a 0.17% increase

  • Industrial production rises 0.2% in October  

    Weakness still reflects tighter financial conditions in 3Q18

  • Stronger trade surplus at the margin  

    November figures suggest a stronger trade balance in 4Q18, led by exports of basic items

  • Primary surplus of 7.8 billion reais in October  

    Short-term fiscal results are improving

  • GDP expands 0.8% in 3Q18  

    The result was distorted by the direct effects of the truckers’ stoppages in 2Q18.

  • Unemployment is virtually unchanged in October  

    Formal jobs hasn't shown an improvement yet

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in October, but upward trend continues  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency decreased 0.1 p.p. to 2.9%.

  • Current account posts a $329 million surplus in October  

    Despite the weaker than expected reading, the current account deficit receded at the margin.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.19% and prints below expectations in November  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in November is a drop of 0.05%

  • Monthly GDP declines in September  

    Consumption declined in September, but investment expanded

  • Retail sales fall in September  

    Weak result may reflect a normalization after a month benefited by withdrawals from accounts held under PIS/PASEP programs.

  • IPCA rose 0.45% in October, below the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in November is a 0.05% move

  • COPOM Minutes: Steady rates for long  

    Forecasts in line with the targeted path suggest rates may be on course to hibernate for quite some time

  • $6.1 billion trade surplus in October  

    October figures showed a wider trade surplus at the margin.

  • Industrial production declines in September  

    Widespread decline in September

  • Copom: less asymmetric risks  

    The statement brings few but relevant changes, noting that risks have become less asymmetric

  • Gains in informal jobs push unemployment down  

    No noticeable improvement in formal employment yet

  • Primary deficit of 24.6 billion reais in September  

    Fiscal result for the year should be better than the target

  • New non-earmarked loans increase in September  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 3.0%. Average interest rates and spreads declined.

  • $32 million current account surplus in September  

    The current account deficit narrowed at the margin in September, but remains stable at 0.8% of GDP over 12 months

  • Copom Cockpit: Selic stable in October amid more balanced risks for inflation  

    We believe that Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a. at the October meeting

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.58% in October, printing below expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in October is a 0.55% increase

  • Monthly GDP expands in August  

    Gains in 7 out of 13 monthly GDP components

  • Retail sales increase in August  

    Better-than-expected readings

  • IPCA climbed 0.48% in September, slightly above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in October is a 0.53% increase

  • Falling oil production is behind the decline in industrial production in August  

    A lower than expected result

  • $5.0 billion trade surplus in September  

    September figures showed some increase in the trade surplus at the margin.

  • Primary deficit of 16.9 billion reais in August  

    Short-term fiscal results are better than expected

  • Informal jobs prompt drop in unemployment  

    The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell 0.1 p.p. to 12.2% in the quarter ended in August

  • Inflation Report: close call  

    Copom´s inflation forecasts indicate that the Selic rate can be kept constant in the coming meetings.

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked corporate loans decreases again  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.2% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment

  • COPOM Minutes: ready to act  

    Faced with a balance of risks that is tilted towards higher inflation, the Copom stands ready to act.

  • Current account deficit: Stability at the margin  

    The current account deficit was stable at the margin last month, but wider than in 2017

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, below the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.46% increase

  • Copom: stable rates, for now  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa

  • Monthly GDP expands in July  

    Headline reading is stronger than diffusion indicated

  • Retail sales decline in July  

    First year-over-year drop in 16 months

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic in September amid growing uncertainties  

    We believe that the current situation is still consistent with a stable Selic rate at 6.5% in the next meeting

  • IPCA shows deflation in August (-0.09%)  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.40% increase

  • Industrial production falls 0.2% in July  

    Output remains above pre-stoppages levels

  • $3.8 billion trade surplus in August  

    August trade surplus figures showed moderation at the margin

  • GDP rises 0.2% in 2Q18 as underlying growth loses momentum  

    Growth negatively affected by the truckers’ stoppages in May

  • Primary deficit of 3.4 billion reais in July  

    Short-term data improve

  • Unemployment recedes to 12.3% in July  

    Employment advanced 0.3% qoq after consecutive declines in recent months

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked corporate loans plummets in July  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.5% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment.

  • Current account deficit reaches $4.4 billion in July  

    The current account deficit moderated at the margin in July

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.13% in August, slightly above the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in August is -0.02%

  • Normalization in monthly GDP in June  

    1.4% growth in June

  • No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in retail sales in June  

    Auto and construction material recovered, but supermarket and fuel sales recede further

  • IPCA rose 0.33% in July, above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in August is a 0.03% move

  • COPOM Minutes: Selic rate to remain stable in September, in the absence of new shocks  

    Copom minutes signal stable policy rate at 6.50% in its next meeting.

  • Industrial production goes back to normal in June  

    Industrial production soared 13.1% mom/sa

  • Copom: two way risks, but no move for the time being  

    The Copom took the universally expected decision, leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.50% pa, without a bias, in an unanimous vote

  • Imports of oil-drilling rigs reduce the trade surplus in July  

    Weaker trade balance at the margin, due to higher imports, led by purchases of oil-drilling rigs under the Repetro-Sped regime

  • Unemployment falls to 12.4% in June  

    Participation rate remains in a downward trend

  • Primary deficit of 13.5 billion reais in June  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • New non-earmarked corporate loans increase in June  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans climbed 1.6% mom/sa in real terms

  • $435 million current account surplus in June  

    The current account deficit showed moderation at the margin in June, given the narrower trade surplus

  • Copom Cockpit: relatively unchanged balance of risks  

    We believe that the current scenario is consistent with the maintenance of the Selic rate at next week’s meeting

  • IPCA-15 climbed 0.64% in July, below the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in July points to an increase of 0.28%

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP falls 1.2% in May  

    Truckers’ protest was behind the weak reading

  • Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May  

    Breakdown shows widespread decline

  • IPCA rises 1.26% in June, close to the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in July is a 0.35% increase

  • Truckers’ stoppage affected industrial production in May  

    Coincident indicators signal normalization in June

  • $30 billion trade surplus in 1H18  

    The trade balance seems to have stabilized on a lower level than in the beginning of the year

  • Primary budget deficit of 8.2 billion reais in May  

    Fiscal rebalancing remains challenging

  • Unemployment reaches 12.7% in May  

    Lower participation rate offsets decline in employment

  • Inflation Report: inflation forecasts reinforce a scenario of stable Selic rate  

    Brazil´s Central Bank models point to inflation below or close to target in all scenarios for 2018, 2019 and 2020.

  • New non-earmarked loans and delinquency fell in May  

    Average interest rates and spreads receded

  • COPOM Minutes: no imminent action, in a more uncertain environment  

    The minutes reinforce the message that forward guidance has been abandoned, for the time being, given the currently uncertain environment.

  • $729 million current account surplus in May  

    At the margin, the current account deficit increased somewhat in May

  • IPCA-15 climbed 1.11% in June, topping the median of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in June points to an increase of 1.37%.

  • Copom to keep the Selic rate at 6.50%, if data allows it  

    The Copom kept the Selic rate at 6.50%, in line with our call and the market’s. We expect the Selic rate to remain at 6.50% until year-end.

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP expands 0.6% in April  

    Result was boosted by a higher number of working days

  • Copom Cockpit: stability amid a more challenging scenario  

    We believe that the current scenario, while certainly challenging, will lead the Copom to maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% at the June 19 and 20 meeting

  • Retail sales rise in April and continue upward trend  

    Result influenced by fewer holidays in the month.

  • IPCA rises 0.40% in May, above expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in June is an increase of about 1%

  • Industrial production expands 0.8% in April  

    The latest result was boosted by a higher-than-average number of working days for the month

  • Sharper-than-expected drop in exports in May  

    Exports declined sharply in the final week of the month, reflecting the impact of the truckers’ strike

  • Small primary surplus in April  

    The surplus reflects the month’s favorable seasonality

  • GDP rises 0.4% in 1Q18, extending gradual recovery  

    GDP breakdown shows a slightly better picture for domestic demand than the headline result suggests

  • Unemployment reaches 12.9% in April  

    Slide in seasonally-adjusted unemployment was driven by declining participation rate

  • Delinquency in non-earmarked loans declines sharply among corporations in April  

    Average interest rates and spreads receded.

  • Current account deficit: stability at the margin  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit remains low

  • IPCA-15 rose 0.14% in May, below the lowest of market estimates  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in May points to a 0.25% increase

  • Copom minutes: Stable rate in the baseline scenario  

    In our baseline scenario, the Selic rate will remain stable at 6.5% until year-end.

  • Copom: When facts change  

    The Copom decided to end the easing cycle leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.5%

  • Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP expands 0.3% in 1Q18  

    PM-Itaú increases 0.1% in March.

  • Retail sales rise in March and continue upward trend  

    Better than expected result, driven by vehicles and fuel

  • Copom Cockpit: End of the cycle  

    We believe that the Copom will follow the path presented in the March meeting and announce a final 25bp-reduction in the Selic in May.

  • IPCA rises 0.22% in April, below expectations  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in May is a 0.35% increase

  • Industrial production falls 0.1% in March, disappointing expectations  

    Weakness was widespread, with declines in 14 out of 24 activities

  • Polls highlight election uncertainty  

    The Datafolha poll updated the election scenario in Brazil, which remains undefined


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