Itaú BBA - Macro Brazil
  • New non-earmarked loans advance in August, led by households  

    The average interest rate and spread decreased.

  • Itaú Daily Activity Tracker - Brazil  

    The indicator decreased at the margin, after a slight recovery over the last few days.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: stable Selic rate  

    The report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the maintenance of the Selic rate at a low level for a long period.

  • Pandemic monitor: economic activity accelerates further in Brazil  

    News cases show some stabilization in India, but continue to accelerate in most of Europe

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September and 2.65% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.45% in September. Pressure on food prices is expected to continue for the next readings.

  • $3.7 billion current account surplus in August  

    Slower economic activity, a weaker exchange rate and social isolation have been impacting the current account

  • Copom Minutes: reaffirming forward guidance  

    The Copom minutes reinforce that their forward guidance (low rates for long) still applies

  • Pandemic monitor: after significant improvement, Brazil has slight increases at the margin  

    The 7-day moving averages jumped with the latest bulletin, because data for the Sep. 7 holiday dropped out, not because of a change of trend

  • Copom: stable rates, as expected  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Copom Cockpit: Stable Selic rate amid fiscal uncertainties  

    We expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a. at its next meeting

  • Core retail sales exceed pre-crisis level  

    Core retail sales on the rise

  • Pandemic monitor: new deaths continue to retreat in Brazil  

    After months hovering around 1000 per day, new deaths in Brazil seem to have entered a clear downward trend

  • IPCA rises 0.24% in August and 2.44% yoy  

    IPCA rises 0.24% in August, with pressure on food prices and relief in the education group

  • Continuing recovery in industrial production  

    Strong and widespread growth.

  • Pandemic monitor: declining deaths in Brazil  

    New deaths receded again in Brazil, reaching the same levels of the second half of May

  • $6.6 billion trade surplus in August  

    Brazilian imports resume growth but remain at low levels

  • GDP declined 9.7% in 2Q20  

    Result reflects the pandemic's impacts

  • Primary deficit of BRL 81.1 billion in July  

    The main challenge is to rebalance fiscal accounts

  • New loans increase and delinquency rate declines in July  

    The average interest rate and spread also decreased.

  • Pandemic monitor: the economic recovery is resuming in the U.S.  

    After a long period of stability, our indicator for the U.S. now shows an upward trend, consistent with the retreating outbreak

  • Another month of current account adjustment  

    July marks the fourth consecutive monthly current account surplus.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.23% in August and 2.28% yoy  

    Deflation in education prices helped to decrease the monthly gain.

  • Pandemic monitor: cases increase in Europe, but deaths don’t  


  • Itaú monthly GDP expands 3.3% mom/sa in June  

    Breakdown shows widespread gains

  • Significant recovery in retail sales in June  

    Core retail sales return to pre-crisis level

  • Coronavirus monitor: India becomes the epicenter of new cases  

    In Brazil, the number of new cases has decreased slightly at the margin, while new deaths remain broadly stable

  • Copom Minutes: stable rates in the baseline scenario  

    The Copom minutes reinforce the perception that the authorities will not move in the next policy meeting

  • IPCA rises 0.36% in July and 2.31% yoy  

    July’s IPCA close to estimates. Underlying service inflation remains on a declining trend.

  • Unemployment rate in line with expectations in June  

    Falling participation rate prevents steeper increase in unemployment rate.

  • Coronavirus monitor: global new cases have interrupted a long sequence of increases  

    With improvement in the U.S. and some stability in Brazil, global new cases interrupted (maybe temporarily) their upward trend

  • Copom: fiscally dependent  

    The text does not formally close the door to additional easing, but indicates that, if any, it will be even more gradual than today’s move.

  • Recovering industrial production  

    Widespread growth

  • $8.1 billion trade surplus in July  

    the decline in economic activity continues to yield strong trade surpluses

  • Primary deficit of BRL 188.7 billion in June  

    Fiscal deterioration, amid a pandemic

  • Households lead growth in non-earmarked loans in June  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.0% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Coronavirus monitor: spike in Brazil may be caused by data adjustments  

    The state of São Paulo found problems that may also have distorted the data of other locations

  • Fourth consecutive monthly surplus in the current account  

    Lower pressure on the service and income deficit yields fourth consecutive current account surplus

  • Copom Cockpit: a 25-bp cut  

    Despite the already low level, the additional Selic rate cut would be mainly driven by recent inflation data, which was lower than expected

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.30% in July and 2.13% yoy  

    Weaker-than-expected IPCA-15 in July. Inflation dynamics remain benign.

  • Coronavirus monitor: new cases retreat in Brazil  

    In Brazil, slower growth of cases in the smaller cities may mean that the peak is already behind.

  • Coronavirus monitor: indicators are stable in Brazil  

    Over the past days, the countries with most significant increases of new cases per capita were the U.S., South Africa, Colombia and India

  • Monthly GDP expands 2.8% mom/sa in May  

    Retail stands out positively during the month

  • IPCA rises 0.26% in June and 2.13% yoy  

    July’s IPCA inflation below expectations. Core inflation measures remain on a benign path.

  • Coronavirus monitor: the outbreak in India continues to grow  

    Brazil in maps: starting with this edition, we will feature state-level comparative maps.

  • Broad retail sales advance 19.6% mom/sa in May  

    Gains topped expectations and were widespread across sectors

  • Industrial production climbs 7.0% mom/sa in May  

    Widespread growth across sectors.

  • $7.5 billion trade surplus in June  

    We forecast a wide trade surplus this year as imports fall more sharply than exports

  • Coronavirus monitor: US back in the spotlight  

    In Brazil, cases are growing faster in smaller cities, while capitals have a less explosive curve of new cases, and declining new deaths

  • Primary deficit of BRL 131.4 billion in May  

    Fiscal accounts will deteriorate in 2020

  • Lower participation rate prevents steeper growth in unemployment rate  

    Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.6% in May

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in May, dragged by corporate loans  

    Overall delinquency slid 0.1 p.p. to 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: new scenario revision  

    The QIR shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the maintenance of the Selic rate at a low level for a prolonged period.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.02% in June and 1.92% yoy  

    IPCA-15 close to zero in June. Core inflation measures below expectations.

  • Another monthly surplus in the current account  

    Continuing declines in the current account deficit are expected in the coming months.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil had worse numbers at the margin  

    Data on new cases and new deaths rose again in the country, after showing some stability.

  • Copom Minutes: caution ahead  

    The Copom minutes reinforce the perception that the authorities will not move in the next policy meeting

  • Monthly GDP drops 8.4% mom/sa in April  

    PM-Itaú posts the sharpest decline in the series

  • Copom: door slightly ajar to further easing, but the bar is high  

    The statement did not clearly close the door to additional easing, but its tone suggests that this is not the base case .

  • Coronavirus monitor: renewed signs of stabilization in Brazil  

    Over the last weeks, new cases and new deaths have been broadly flat in Brazil

  • Broad retail sales decline by less than expected in April  

    Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April

  • Coronavirus monitor: the global recovery continues  

    Developed countries continue to recover, while Brazil gains some traction again.

  • IPCA falls 0.38% in May and rises 1.88% year-over-year  

    IPCA posted a 0.38% deflation in May. Core inflation measures remain subdued.

  • Copom Cockpit: a second 75-bp cut  

    Copom will take Selic rate to 2.25% p.a. and may signal an interruption of monetary adjustment for now.

  • Industrial production receded 18.8% seasonally-adjusted in April  

    Important differences within sectors

  • Coronavirus monitor: new deaths lose momentum in Brazil  

    The improvement is clear only in the northern region. To confirm a trend reversal, other regions must follow.

  • Trade surplus of $4.5 billion in May  

    The May trade balance continued to show the slowdown in global trade and, in particular, the decline in domestic economic activity

  • Primary deficit of BRL 94.3 billion in April  

    The consolidated primary deficit over 12 months increased to 2.3% from 0.9% of GDP.

  • 1Q20 GDP recedes 1.5% qoq/sa, in line with expectations  

    The result was in line with expectations (mkt: -1.5%; Itaú: -1.4%)

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in April  

    The overall delinquency rate was virtually stable at 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Falling participation rate prevents steeper grow in unemployment  

    Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.1% in April.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil leads the emerging market outbreak  

    Brazil leads the group of emerging countries with accelerating outbreaks, followed by Peru, Mexico, India and South Africa, among others.

  • IPCA-15 falls 0.59% in May and is up by 1.96% yoy  

    Lower prices for fuel and airline tickets contributed to the deflation in the month. Core inflation measures remain low.

  • Sharp correction in external accounts in April  

    In the coming months, we expect new declines in the current account deficit.

  • Coronavirus monitor: Brazil at center stage  

    Russia and Brazil now occupy, respectively, the second and third global position in terms of total cases, only behind the U.S.

  • COVID-19 monitor: Brazil, Russia and India in the eye of the hurricane  

    In Brazil, the death ratio is increasing fast in Rio. North and NE regions continue to see strong per capita increases of new cases and deaths.

  • Broad retail sales fall 13.7% mom/sa in March  

    Supermarket sales prevent a sharper decline

  • Copom Minutes: 75-bp cut ahead, despite fiscal risks  

    We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting

  • IPCA falls 0.31% in April and is up by 2.40% year-over-year  

    April's IPCA posted a 0.31% monthly deflation, leading the 12-month reading to 2.4%.

  • Copom: boldly toward the future  

    The Copom cut the base rate to 3.0% pa (we expected a more modest move, to 3.25%) and signaled one final cut in June.

  • Industrial production drops 9.1% mom/sa in March  

    Widespread contraction seen in the first month of social distancing

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Large output gap calls for significant monetary easing  

    Given the deterioration of the economic outlook, another 50bps cut this month is likely

  • $6.7 billion trade surplus in April  

    Larger-than-expected exports in the last week of the month yield stronger trade surplus in April

  • Copom Cockpit: Resuming the easing cycle  

    We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 50 bps, to 3.25% pa, and to signal caution regarding additional movements.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 23.7 billion in March  

    Fiscal result will worsen in 2020

  • Unemployment rate below expectations due to declining workforce  

    Drop in the workforce prevents higher unemployment

  • COVID-19 monitor: the week starts with worsening data in Brazil  

    The outbreak in Brazil is still more concentrated in the Southeast, but spreading fast.

  • New corporate loans soar in March  

    Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms

  • IPCA-15 moves -0.01% in April and is up by 2.92% yoy  

    IPCA-15 falls -0.01% in April with core inflation measures lower than expected

  • Current account surplus of $868 million in March  

    $868 million current account surplus in March due to surprises in both services and income accounts

  • COVID-19 monitor: stabilization signs in the U.S.  

    Brazil seems to have a “seasonal” effect: softer data during weekends, with jumps on Tuesdays.

  • IPCA moves 0.07% in March and 3.30% year-over-year  

    March’s IPCA inflation came in at 0.07% mom, slightly below market expectations

  • COVID-19 monitor: Europe approaches a turning point  

    Numbers in Brazil are evolving more favorably, but this may be caused by reporting problems.

  • Retail sales increased 0.7% mom/sa in February  

    Supermarket sales reinforce positive monthly result

  • Coronavirus advances globally  

    Governments in several countries, including Brazil, have announced measures to stimulate the economy.

  • Seasonally adjusted industrial production increases 0.5% in February  

    Positive capital and intermediate goods production

  • COVID-19 monitor: U.S. becomes the center of the crisis  

    The U.S. leads new cases, while Europe seems about to peak.

  • Wider than expected trade surplus in March  

    Stronger-than-expected exports yield higher-than-antecipated trade surplus in March

  • Primary deficit of BRL 20.9 billion in February  

    Primary result will temporarily deteriorate due to coronavirus crisis.

  • Seasonally adjusted unemployment remains stable at 11.5% in February  

    Equal growth in employment and workforce prevents a decline in unemployment

  • New non-earmarked loans increase in February  

    Overall delinquency remained stable at 3.0% in seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: revising the outlook  

    The inflation report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with further rate cuts in 2020

  • IPCA-15 moves 0.02% in March and 3.67% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.02% in March. We forecast a 0.07% increase for the CPI at the end of this month.

  • COVID-19 monitor: news cases accelerate in Brazil and the U.S.  

    Recent numbers: cases continue to grow worldwide, driven by Europe and the U.S.

  • $3.9 billion current account deficit in February  

    In the coming months, the current account deficit is expected to recede due to slower economic activity and a weaker exchange rate.

  • Copom Minutes: Busy BCB Day  

    We expect the Copom to cut again once the market situation calms down, taking the Selic to 3.25% p.a., not necessarily in the next meeting.

  • Copom: a hawkish cut?  

    The Copom reduced the Selic rate to 3.75% pa and stated that, for now, they see base rate stability as adequate.

  • Copom Cockpit: Easing with caution  

    We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.0% per year.

  • IPCA climbs 0.25% in February and 4.01% year-over-year  

    Core inflation measures remain at comfortable levels.

  • Industrial production increases 0.9% mom/sa in January  

    Capital goods production was the main positive highlight.

  • GDP expands 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q19  

    Consumer spending and investment on the rise, exports and government spending decline in 2019

  • Rising exports ensure wider-than-expected trade surplus in February  

    The trade balance in February was positive by $3.1 billion, beating our forecast and market estimates

  • Seasonally adjusted unemployment reaches 11.5% in January  

    Participation rate supports the decline in unemployment during the month

  • Primary surplus of BRL 56.3 billion in January  

    Largest primary surplus for the month

  • New non-earmarked loans decline in January  

    Overall delinquency was virtually stable at 3.0%.

  • $11.9 billion current account deficit in January  

    The retreat in the service and income deficits could not offset the decline in trade balance in January

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.22% in February and 4.21% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.22% in February. Core inflation measures remain subdued

  • Monthly GDP drops 0.8% mom/sa in December  

    Widespread weakness

  • Broad retail sales fall 0.8% mom/sa in December  

    Widespread weakness in the retail sector

  • COPOM Minutes: on hold, but divided  

    The text points to unchanged interest rates for the time being – we expect the Selic rate to end the year at the present 4.25%.

  • IPCA climbs 0.21% in January and reaches 4.19% year-over-year  

    IPCA below expectations in January

  • Copom: interrupting the cycle  

    The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) cut the Selic rate to 4.25% p.a. and decided to interrupt the easing cycle.

  • Industrial production drops 0.7% mom/sa in December  

    Investment-related components cool down in December

  • Imported oil-drilling rigs lead to $1.7 billion trade deficit in January  

    Capital goods imports were inflated by transactions involving oil-drilling rigs in the final week of the month

  • Copom Cockpit: 25-bp cut in the first meeting of the year  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.25% p.a. in its February 4-5 meeting.

  • 2019 ends with seasonally-adjusted unemployment at 11.6%  

    Participation rate supports the decline in unemployment in late 2019

  • Primary deficit of BRL 62 billion (-0.9% of GDP) in 2019  

    Fiscal prints are gradually improving

  • Continuing growth in new non-earmarked loans  

    Interest rates and the average spread declined

  • Current account deficit ends 2019 at 2.8% of GDP  

    The current account posted a $5.7 bn deficit in December, leading the 2019 deficit to $50.8 bn (2.8% of GDP)

  • IPCA-15 climbs 0.71% in January and 4.34% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.71% in January. We forecast a 0.29% increase for the CPI at the end of this month.

  • Monthly GDP drops 0.3% mom/sa in November  

    Widespread declines in components

  • Broad retail sales recede after expanding for eight months  

    Advance in core retail sales and drop in the broad concept

  • IPCA climbs 1.15% in December and ends the year at 4.31%  

    IPCA rises 1.15% in December and closes 2019 at 4.31%

  • Industrial production recedes 1.2% in November  

    Manufacturing recedes after three consecutive monthly increases

  • $46.7 billion trade surplus in 2019  

    The trade surplus declined in 2019, but remained at a historically-high level.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 15.3 billion in November  

    The consolidated primary deficit over 12 months receded to 1.2% of GDP from 1.3% in the previous month.

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment declines to 11.7%  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards

  • Corporate borrowers drive growth in new non-earmarked loans in November  

    Overall delinquency rose 0.1 p.p. to 3.0% in seasonally-adjusted terms.

  • IPCA-15 climbed 1.05% in December and ends the year at 3.91  

    IPCA-15 rises 1.05% in December due to higher beef prices

  • Current account deficit below expectations in November, with surprise in the services account  

    The main surprise came from the equipment rental account, which is typically volatile. At the margin, the current account deficit is narrower.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: evidences support new rate cuts  

    The IR reinforces our belief that the monetary authority will see room to reduce the Selic rate again.

  • Copom Minutes: data dependent, with some dissent  

    While the written text indicates a somewhat hawkish tone, we understand that inflation forecasts allow lower interest rates ahead.

  • Monthly GDP expands 0.7% mom/sa in October  

    Widespread growth in October.

  • Copom: Leaving the door open for further cuts  

    The statement does not commit to additional rate cuts, but does not rule them out either.

  • Retail sales sustain upward trend  

    Retail sales advance in October

  • Copom Cockpit: Selic rate moving towards 4.5%  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps at next week’s meeting, to 4.5% p.a.

  • IPCA climbs 0.51% in November and 3.27% year-over-year  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps at next week’s meeting, to 4.5% p.a.

  • Industrial production climbs 0.8% in October  

    Manufacturing accelerates at the margin

  • GDP expands 0.6% in 3Q19  

    Data reinforce a gradual pickup in economic activity.

  • Data revision yields higher trade surplus  

    The significant revision in exports shows a still-high trade surplus, albeit lower than in 2018

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment remains stable at 12.0%  

    The underemployment rate continues to recede, standing now at 24.1% with seasonal adjustment.

  • Primary surplus of BRL 9.4 billion in October  

    Accumulated over 12 months, the consolidated primary deficit remained at 1.3% of GDP.

  • New loans decline in October  

    The average spread and interest rate declined.

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in October  

    Wider-than-expected current account deficit in October. Due to the revision of external sector statistics, the CAD reached 3.0% of GDP.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.14% in November and 2.67% yoy  

    IPCA-15 increases 0.14% in November. Core inflation measures remain subdued

  • Solid retail sales growth in September  

    Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending

  • Monthly GDP expands 0.3% mom/sa in September  

    PM-Itaú climbed 0.6% in 3Q19

  • IPCA rises 0.10% in October and reaches 2.54% year-over-year  

    12 month IPCA inflation reaches 2.54% in October

  • Copom minutes: Caution at this stage  

    The document reinforced the expectation of an additional 50-bp cut at December’s meeting, but indicated caution going forward.

  • Industrial production weaker than expectations  

    The item "printing and copies" stood out by falling 28.6% mom/sa.

  • $1.2 billion trade surplus in October  

    October figures reinforce the weakening trade surplus in the second half of 2019

  • Primary deficit of BRL 20.5 billion reais in September  

    2019 primary result should be better than the target

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment remains stable at 12.0%  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards in September

  • Copom: Steady at the helm  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, cutting the Selic rate by 50 bps, and mentioned another 50-bp rate cut ahead, in December.

  • New loans rise again in September  

    Overall delinquency was stable at 3.0% in seasonally-adjusted terms.

  • Copom Cockpit: the easing cycle continues  

    We believe the Copom will cut the Selic rate to 5.0% at its next week's meeting

  • Narrower-than-expected current account deficit in September  

    Narrower Current Account Deficit in September due to smaller Income Deficit

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in October and 2.72% yoy  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in October. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Monthly GDP expands in August  

    A second gain in monthly GDP in 3Q19

  • Retail sales weaker than expectations in August  

    Retail sales remain on an upward trend

  • IPCA falls -0.04% in September reaching 2.89% year-over-year  

    IPCA falls -0.04% in September with core inflation measures lower than expected

  • $2.3 billion trade surplus in September  

    The seasonally-adjusted annualized quarterly moving average slid to $31.1 billion from $34.7 billion in August.

  • Positive surprise in industrial production concentrated in mining/extractive  

    Recovery in mining/extraction, while manufacturing remains slow.

  • Primary deficit of BRL 13.4 billion reais in August  

    Fiscal challenges remain.

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rises to 12.0%  

    The underemployment rate reached 24.3%, matching the August 2018 reading.

  • Quarterly Inflation Report: forecasts consistent with a new rate cut and maintenance next year  

    The document indicates that the Selic rate may remain at a new low of 5.0% for a lengthy period, rising only from 2021 onward.

  • New loans rise again in August  

    The deliquency rate increased slightly to 3.1%, seasonally adjusted.

  • Copom minutes: Risks limit Selic rate below the 5% level, for now  

    The minutes reinforced the likelihood of a 50-bp cut in October, but limited the indication of even lower interest rates, for now.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September and year-over-year change remains at 3.22%  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Remittance of dividends and profits pressure current account deficit in August  

    The current account posted a $4.3 billion deficit in August, which was wider than our forecast (-$3.9 bn) and market estimates (-$4.1 bn).

  • Copom: Selic rate moving towards 5%  

    The statement indicates that another 50-bp “adjustment” of the base rate is likely in the October meeting.

  • Monthly GDP advances in July  

    Monthly GDP goes up in early 3Q19

  • Copom Cockpit: Another 50-bp cut on the way  

    We believe the backdrop for our scenario of a continued easing cycle has not changed significantly since the last policy decision.

  • Retail sales beat expectations in July  

    Result reinforces moderate expansion trend in consumer spending

  • IPCA rises 0.11% MoM in August and 3.43% YoY  

    The IPCA rises 0.11% in August, as expected

  • Industrial production declines in July  

    The data continue to suggest a slow pace of recovery in economic activity.

  • Trade surplus weakens in 3Q19  

    Trade surplus weakens due to the slowdown in global activity

  • Primary deficit of BRL 2.8 billion in July  

    Fiscal challenges remain

  • Seasonally-adjusted unemployment recedes to 11.8%  

    Unemployment remains high by historical standards

  • S&P downgrades Argentina to Selective Default  

    The administration is sending legislation to Congress to engage in a re-profiling of the remaining debt

  • GDP expands 0.4% in 2Q19  

    Construction sector performance was a positive highlight, increasing 1.9%.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected GDP in Brazil  

    Our GDP growth forecasts are 0.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020

  • New loans increase in July  

    Overall delinquency went up slightly by 0.1 p.p. to 3.1%.

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in July  

    Profit and dividend remittances and a weaker trade balance lead to a wider current account deficit in July.

  • IPCA-15 rises 0.08% MoM in August and 3.22% YoY  

    IPCA-15 rises 0.08% in August. Core measures remain on a benign path

  • Monthly GDP declines in June, but expands 0.5% in 2Q19  

    Result reinforces perception of weak economic activity

  • IPCA recedes to 3.22% in July  

    IPCA recedes to 3.22% in July. Core measures at comfortable levels

  • Retail sales disappoint market estimates in June  

    Consumption remains in a moderate recovery trend.

  • Copom minutes: Still pointing to a 50-bp cut in September  

    The minutes indicate another 50bps cut in September and we expect a Selic rate to reach 5.0% by the end of 2019

  • Stronger imports yield weaker trade surplus in July  

    Stronger imports yield weaker-than-expected trade surplus in July

  • Industrial production declines in June  

    Weakness in investment-related components

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