Itaú BBA - Waiting for data releases

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Waiting for data releases

May 22, 2019

Activity and confidence indicators in several countries from Latam will be published today, adding to the expenditure report in Brazil.

Talk of the Day


Day Ahead: The government will release the bi-monthly revenue and expenditure report, and new spending cuts may be announced. According to Valor Econômico, the report could lead to a reduction of BRL 2 bn in the BRL 5.3 bn budget reserve. Since the reserve is technically an expenditure without a formal allocation, the cut has the advantage of not directly affecting the current budget of ministries, which are already working under financial constraints.


Day Ahead: The INDEC will publish the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) for March on Wednesday. According to leading and coincident indicators, economic activity dropped on a sequential basis in the period. Official indicators for industrial output and construction activity showed month-over-month losses (seasonally adjusted) of -4.3% and -3.5%, respectively. The monthly GDP proxy published by OJF consulting firm (IGA index) fell 0.7% mom/sa in the same period. We forecast a 0.7% drop against February, implying a 5.8% year-over-year drop.


Day Ahead: At 10:00 AM, the statistics institute (INEGI) will announce March’s retail sales, for which we forecast a 2.3% year-over-year growth, from 1.8% in February. Private consumption indicators have shown a moderation in the growth rate, consistent with the recent weakness in the labor market. However, the recent real wage increases are a buffer for activity, sustaining the real wage bill and smoothing the consumption slowdown.


Day Ahead: Think-tank Fedesarrollo will publish industrial and retail confidence for the month of April. In the previous month, both indicators remained in optimistic ground, posting gains over the twelve-month period. Industrial confidence was 3.0% in March (0 = neutral), up from 0.2% one year earlier (5.1% in February), registering an improvement in the expectations for production in the upcoming quarter. Meanwhile, retail confidence came in at 27.5% (24.6% in March 2018; 31.8% in February), with the annual gain evenly explained by the three sub-indexes: lower inventory levels, better expectations of the economic situation in the coming semester and the evaluation of the current situation.

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