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Stable rates in Paraguay

February 23, 2021

The COPOM kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected

Talk of the Day

Paraguay

The COPOM kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected. According to the post-meeting statement, while headline inflation (2.6% for the last 12 months) and underlying inflation remains low, inflation expectations are anchored to the 4% target. The statement also noted that economic activity indicators were more dynamic toward the end of 2020 and that the pace of recovery will likely be established by 2Q21. The central bank warned that lingering risks related to COVID-19 will depend on the progress of vaccination. The minutes of the meeting, scheduled for publication on February 26, may shed some light on the timing of the central bank’s upcoming interest rate hikes (March or 2Q21). We forecast a monetary policy rate of 2.0% for December 2021.

Brazil

COVID-19 update: The latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Brazil registered a daily increase of 639 deaths (527 on the previous day) and 26,986 confirmed cases (from 29,026). The 7-day moving average of deaths increased to 1,053, from 1,037 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 247,143, with 10,195,160 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.4% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 1.03 (from 1.05). According to state health figures, Brazil has vaccinated about 2.79% of its population (around 5.93 million individuals). An additional batch of 2 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca’s vaccine arrived earlier today. Fiocruz institute is also expecting to receive input for the production of around 12 million doses by February 27th.

A preliminary version of the Emergency PEC’s draft from the bill’s rapporteur, Senator Marcio Bittar, was released yesterday. According to the news, the proposal would establish (i) escape clauses from fiscal rules in order to create room for an emergency aid extension in 2021 and (ii) improvements in the fiscal framework of the federal government, states and municipalities as compensations for the extension of the benefit – however, the proposal does not create such measures in the short term, nor does it limit the duration of the benefit. On the other hand, it limits the legal framework for extra-cap expenditures to the emergency aid alone, and regulates automatic mechanisms of adjustment to all federal entities, when certain requirements are filled.

Itaú Daily Activity Tracker: The indicator decreased by 11.4 points, to 89.0 (latest available data from Thursday, February 18th). The 7-day moving average decreased by 0.4 points, to 97.9. The indicator is up 41.5 points from the bottom seen on April 10th, and is now 11.0% below the mid-March level, when the series started. See our report here.

Argentina

COVID-19 update: The latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Argentina registered a daily increase of 161 deaths (76 on the previous day) and 5,417 confirmed cases (from 3,709). The 7-day moving average of deaths increased to 147, from 137 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 51,359, with 2,069,738 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.5% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.83 (from 0.97). According to the latest figures provided by the government, Argentina has vaccinated about 1.02% of its population (456,929 individuals).

Chile

COVID-19 update: The latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Chile registered a daily increase of 84 deaths (68 on the previous day) and 3,547 confirmed cases (from 3,618). The 7-day moving average of deaths remained stable at 72. The total number of deaths now stands at 20,126, with 803,009 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.5% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 1.08 (from 1.11). According to the latest figures provided by the Department of Statistics and Health Information, Chile has vaccinated about 14.86% of its population (around 2.84 million individuals).

Colombia

COVID-19 update: The latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Colombia registered a daily increase of 149 deaths (174 on the previous day) and 4,244 confirmed cases (from 5,017). The 7-day moving average of deaths decreased to 176, from 180 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 58,834, with 2,226,262 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.6% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.90 (stable). According to the latest figures provided by the Ministry of Health, Colombia has vaccinated about 0.08% of its population (39,827 individuals).

Mexico

COVID-19 update: According to the Johns Hopkins University, Mexico registered a daily increase of 310 deaths (832 on the previous day) and 3,104 confirmed cases (from 7,785). The 7-day moving average of deaths decreased to 843, from 861 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 180,107, with 2,041,380 confirmed cases, which implies an 8.8% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.74 (from 0.94). According to the latest figures provided by the Secretary of Health, Mexico has vaccinated about 0.96% of its population (around 1.24 million individuals).

Peru

COVID-19 update: The latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Peru registered a daily increase of 220 deaths (187 on the previous day) and 7,410 confirmed cases (from 6,376). The 7-day moving average of deaths increased to 199, from 198 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 45,097, with 1,283,309 confirmed cases, which implies a 3.5% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 1.04 (from 1.16). According to the latest figures provided by the Ministry of Health, Peru has vaccinated about 104.31% of its population (166,090 individuals).



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