Itaú BBA - Peru's GDP to be released today

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Peru's GDP to be released today

November 20, 2020

We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures

Talk of the Day

Peru

COVID-19 update: the latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Peru registered a daily increase of 85 deaths (46 on the previous day) and 2,020 confirmed cases (from 1,663). The 7-day moving average of deaths increased to 53, from 46 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 35,402, with 941,951 confirmed cases, which implies a 3.8% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.73 (stable).

Day Ahead: The statistics institute (INEI) will announce GDP growth for 3Q20 during the day, which we estimate to fall by 9.7% yoy (from -30.2% in 2Q20). We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures.

Chile
 
COVID-19 update: the latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Chile registered a daily increase of 58 deaths (14 on the previous day) and 1,454 confirmed cases (from 948). The 7-day moving average of deaths decreased to 37, from 38 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 14,955, with 536,012 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.8% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.82 (from 0.79).​​​​
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Brazil
 
COVID-19 update: the latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Brazil registered a daily increase of 606 deaths (756 on the previous day) and 35,918 confirmed cases (from 34,091). The 7-day moving average of deaths decreased to 540, from 583 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 168,061, with 5,981,767 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.8% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 1.20 (from 1.24).

Itaú Daily Activity Tracker: The indicator decreased by 2.7 p.p., to 94.6 (latest available data from Sunday, November 15th). The 7-day moving average increased slightly, by 0.1 p.p., to 94.3. The indicator is up 38.0 p.p. from the bottom seen on April 11th, and is now 5.4% below the mid-March level, when the series started. See our report here.

Argentina

COVID-19 update: the latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Argentina registered a daily increase of 241 deaths (379 on the previous day) and 10,332 confirmed cases (from 10,621). The 7-day moving average of deaths decreased to 259, from 275 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 36,347, with 1,339,324 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.7% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 1.0 (from 0.83).

Day Ahead: The fiscal balance for October will be published during the day. We estimate that the 12-month rolling primary deficit as of 3Q20 stood at 5.6% of GDP, up from 4.2% in 2Q20. We forecast a fiscal deficit of 6.9% of GDP in 2020, up from 0.4% of GDP in 2019, driven by the measures adopted to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a large GDP contraction.

Colombia

COVID-19 update: the latest official information from the Ministry of Health is that Colombia registered a daily increase of 182 deaths (158 on the previous day) and 6,875 confirmed cases (from 5,911). The 7-day moving average of deaths increased to 179, from 176 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 34,563, with 1,218,003 confirmed cases, which implies a 2.8% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.81 (from 0.83).

Mexico

COVID-19 update: according to the Johns Hopkins University, Mexico registered a daily increase of 502 deaths (165 on the previous day) and 3,918 confirmed cases (from 1,757). The 7-day moving average of deaths decreased to 443, from 455 on the previous day. The total number of deaths now stands at 99,528, with 1,015,071 confirmed cases, which implies a 9.8% mortality rate. The estimated reproduction rate (R) is currently at 0.53 (from 0.48).

 

 



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