Itaú BBA - Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina

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Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina

July 17, 2019

Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July.

Talk of the Day


Inflation decelerated for the third consecutive month in June. Consumer prices rose 2.7% mom in the period, from 3.1% in May, slightly above the market consensus (2.6%). Appreciation of the ARS and freezing of some regulated prices supported the disinflation. The annualized measure of the last three months consequently receded to 43.7% (from 55.2% in May), while the annual reading decreased to 55.8%, after five consecutive gains. Core inflation also decelerated, printing at 2.7% mom in the month. For July, we expect the moderate disinflation to continue. The consulting firm Elypsis estimates a new sequential reduction in headline inflation, to 2.3% mom. Our forecast for December’s inflation stands at 40% in year-over-year terms. ** Full story here.


Day Ahead: Think-tank Fedesarrollo will publish industrial and retail confidence for June. In May, both industrial and retail confidence remained in optimistic ground, with the former consolidating its recovery while the latter fell over the twelve-month period for the first time since February 2018. Going forward, a weak labor market amid high global uncertainty would likely prevent a significant growth improvement and contain confidence levels.

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