Itaú BBA - Evening Edition – Widespread activity slowdown in Chile

Latam Talking Points

< Back

Evening Edition – Widespread activity slowdown in Chile

May 6, 2019

Activity in the first quarter of 2019 grew at its slowest pace since 2Q17.

Talk of the Day

Chile

Activity in the first quarter of 2019 grew at its slowest pace since 2Q17. The monthly GDP proxy (Imacec) increased 1.9% yoy in March (1.4% in February), in line with the Bloomberg market consensus and a tick above our 1.7% call. Mining once more led the drag, contracting for the third consecutive month, while services is still driving the rest of the economy. Overall, Imacec growth slowed to 1.8% in 1Q19, from 3.6% in 4Q18. Although mining expectedly slowed in 1Q19, the moderation of non-mining activity (to its weakest year-over-year rate since 3Q17) shows the economy is fragile. At the margin, the economy also weakened in 1Q19 (to 0.4% qoq/saar, from 5.3% in 4Q18), despite a solid mining-led month-over-month gain in March. The weak activity at the start of the year is line with our view that growth would slow this year after posting an above-potential 4% last year. With activity sluggish, inflation and inflation expectations controlled and external risks still relevant, we continue to expect stable rates by the central bank for the time being (next meeting: May 08-09). Weakness in mining activity is likely due to transitory factors, but the recent moderation of business and consumer confidence amid elevated global risks pose a growing risk to our growth scenario of 3.2% for this year. Nevertheless, in an environment of low inflation, expansionary monetary policy and signs of some labor market recovery, an improvement of non-mining activity is still our baseline scenario. Official national account data will be published on May 20. ** Full story here.

The results of the central bank’s trader survey are in line with the outcome last month, retaining the view that stable rates for at least the next six months is the most likely outcome. The policy rate is still seen stable at 3% for the next 6 months, while one rate increase to 3.25% would come during the following semester, and 3.5% continues to be seen in 24 months. The US dollar is seen recovering some value (to 670 pesos per dollar; 680 spot) over the next month. Meanwhile, short-term (1 year) inflation is now viewed at 2.9% (2.8% previously), likely driven be expectations of higher electricity tariffs and gasoline prices ahead. Meanwhile, the relevant 2-year inflation forecast remained at 2.9% (3% target). We expect only one further 25-bp rate hike near the end of this year, taking the policy rate to 3.25%. Low inflation, the looser policy stance by the Fed and risks to global economic growth suggest there is no need to remove stimulus rapidly in the near term. Two further hikes during 2020 are expected assuming the economic recovery endures.

Tomorrow’s Agenda: The central bank will publish the trade balance for the month of April at 9:30 AM. We expect a trade surplus of USD 800 million (USD 770 million one year earlier). Additionally, nominal wage growth for March will be released. Wage growth in February picked up to 4.3% yoy (3.8% previously).

Argentina

Inflation expectations for 2019 increased once again, according to the April central bank survey. Market participants forecast inflation at 40% for this year, up from 36.0% in March and 31.9% in February (median value). Inflation expectations for the next twelve months increased to 31.4% from 30.7% previously. Analysts expect consumer prices to increase by 25.2% in 2020, up from 23.0% in March. Core inflation expectations for 2019 also deteriorated. Pundits expect core item prices to increase by 40.1% (+5.0 pp over the March survey). Participants adjusted their core inflation projections up to 24.3% for YE20, from 22.0% previously. Participants expect higher inflation over the next three months than in the previous survey, likely in response to the depreciation of the peso against the dollar, and despite the government decision to freeze regulated prices. Average monthly headline inflation for the period April-June increased to 3.6%, from 2.9% in the previous survey. Inflation is expected to drop gradually to 2.2% mom in August (2% in the March survey). Expected average monthly core inflation also increased to 3.3 % for the quarter ending in June, from 2.8% previously. The survey showed that participants expect the yield of Leliqs to hit 50% by end-December, 5pp above the previous survey. Further exchange-rate instability and indexation in wage negotiations are the main upward risk to our inflation forecast (40% for this year). The central bank announced it will sell dollars even if the exchange rate is trading stronger than the upper bound of the non-intervention zone (51.45 ARS/USD). In this way, the central bank seeks to lower inflation through the stabilization of the nominal exchange rate, tight monetary policy, and some heterodox measures (freezing regulated prices and basic food prices). Given the low level of international reserves (around USD 17.5 billion or less than 4% of GDP) it will be challenging to prevent further depreciation of the currency if agents perceive a high probability of policy shift after the elections.

Brazil

The BCB released its weekly survey with market participants (Focus) with lower growth expectations for 2019. According to the survey, the median forecast for GDP growth for 2019 declined 21 bps to 1.49%. This new wave of revisions follows the recent batch of weak economic activity indicators, as evidenced by March’s industrial production that posted a 1.3% mom/sa decline last week, missing market expectations (-0.6%). According to the Focus survey, growth expectations remained stable for 2020 and 2021, at 2.50%. The median of IPCA inflation forecasts oscillated to 4.04% for 2019 (from 4.01). For 2020 and 2021, the median of IPCA inflation forecasts did not change, at 4.00% and 3.75%, respectively. Similarly, the year-end Selic rate remained flat for the three years horizon (2019-2021): at 6.50% for 2019, 7.50% for 2020 and 8.00% for 2021.The median of the forecasts for the exchange rate remained flat for 2019 (at BRL 3.75/USD) and 2021 (at BRL 3.83/USD), while it has remained virtually stable for 2020: at BRL 3.80/USD (from 3.79).

Tomorrow’s Agenda: Anfavea’s auto production data for April will be released at 11:20 AM.

Colombia

April inflation came in at 0.50% mom (0.46% last year), above the market consensus estimate (0.39%) and our 0.42% forecast. The surprise to us was mainly explained by higher than anticipated food and housing price gains. As a result, annual inflation accelerated to 3.25% from 3.21% in March. However, inflationary pressures are likely transitory (especially those related to food stuffs), so we expect price gains to moderate going forward, allowing the Central Bank to maintain course and leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% throughout the year. Inflation excluding food and energy prices increased to a still-low 2.95% (2.81% in March). We continue to expect inflation to end the year at the central bank’s 3.0% target (3.18% in 2018), as the output gap remains negative, transitory food-price shocks dissipate and assuming that the exchange rate remains well-behaved. However, there are upside risks. Besides the global pork-crisis, an increase of tariffs on imports of textiles could pressure inflation up. Furthermore, changes in external financial conditions could hit the Colombian peso by more than many other EM currencies, given the country’s wide current account deficit. ** Full story here.

Mexico

Tomorrow’s Agenda: At 10:00 AM, the Statistics Institute (INEGI) will announce February’s gross fixed investment, which we expect to decrease 3.5% yoy (from 1.7% in January).



< Back