Itaú BBA - Evening Edition – Service sector revenues recede at the margin in Brazil

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Evening Edition – Service sector revenues recede at the margin in Brazil

January 14, 2020

In our view, economic activity remains on a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin.

Talk of the Day

Brazil

The service sector revenues (PMS) increased 1.8% yoy in November, in between market expectations (2.0%) and our estimate (1.2%). At the margin, the indicator decreased 0.1% mom/sa, following two consecutive monthly gains. The breakdown shows 3 out of 5 categories declined in the month. Services offered to families, which is an important item for our GDP tracking, posted the largest drop in the month (-1.5% mom/sa). In our view, economic activity remains on a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin. Our GDP tracking indicates growth of 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q19.

Tomorrow’s Agenda: At 9:00 AM, November’s retail sales will be released. We expect a 0.6% mom/sa increase in core retail sales and a stable seasonally adjusted monthly print in the broad indicator, leading the year-over-year growth rate to 2.8% and 4.6%, respectively.

Argentina

Tomorrow’s Agenda: At 4:00 PM, the INDEC will publish the national CPI for December. Elypsis Consulting estimated a 4.2% monthly increase for consumer prices, leading 2019’s annual inflation to close at 54.6%, marking the highest reading since 1991.

Peru

Tomorrow’s Agenda: At 9:00 AM, the statistics institute (INEI) will announce November’s GDP proxy, which we expect to increase 2.4% yoy, from 2.1% in October.


 



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