Itaú BBA - Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil

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Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil

May 21, 2019

Activity data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity.

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Brazil

According to FGV’s monthly industry survey preview, business confidence in the industrial sector decreased 1.6 pp. to 96.3 in May. The breakdown shows a drop both in the current conditions (-0.4 pp.) and in the expectations component (-2.9 pp.). Capacity utilization in the sector (NUCI) increased slightly (0.3 pp.), to 74.7%. The current level of business confidence is consistent with industrial production growth slightly below 0% on a quarterly basis, and activity data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity, after a disappointing 1Q19.

Argentina

Tomorrow’s Agenda: The INDEC will publish the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) for March. We forecast a 0.7% drop against the previous month, implying a 5.8% yoy decrease.

Colombia

Tomorrow’s Agenda: Think-tank Fedesarrollo will publish industrial and retail confidence for the month of April.

Mexico

Tomorrow’s Agenda: At 10:00 AM, the statistics institute (INEGI) will announce March’s retail sales, for which we forecast a 2.3% yoy growth, from 1.8% in February.



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