Itaú BBA - Evening Edition – Brazil’s Constitutional and Justice Committee to vote the pension reform tonight

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Evening Edition – Brazil’s Constitutional and Justice Committee to vote the pension reform tonight

April 23, 2019

If the proposal is approved, it will then be evaluated by a Special Commission at the Lower House, yet to be created.

Talk of the Day

Brazil

The assessment of the pension reform report at the Lower House’s Constitutional and Justice Committee is currently underway. According to local news, the voting is expected to happen tonight. If the proposal is approved, it will then be evaluated by a Special Commission at the Lower House, yet to be created.

Colombia

The coincident activity indicator (ISE) for the month of February came in below expectations. The original series grew 2.7% yoy, below the market consensus (2.8%) and our 2.9% expectation, but accelerated from 2.5% in January (revised up from 2.2%). In the quarter ended in February, ISE moderated to 2.1% yoy from 2.8% recorded in 4Q18 (2.7% in 3Q18). Meanwhile, the rolling 12-month growth was 2.8%, similar to the 2.7% recorded in 2018. Once adjusted for calendar and seasonal factors, activity showed a null monthly variation (-0.2% one year ago), but expanded 2.8% yoy (2.5% in January). At the margin, activity lost momentum, expanding a mild 1.0% qoq/saar, below the 3.1% recorded in 4Q18. Overall, we expect activity to improve this year, with growth of 3.3%, aided by the still-expansionary monetary policy, l ow infla tion and the recovery in private sentiment. Nevertheless, a sluggish global economy is a key downside risks to our forecast.

Argentina

Tomorrow’s Agenda: The trade balance for March will come out at 4:00 PM. A weak currency and contracting internal demand are leading to trade surpluses. We forecast a surplus of USD 500 million in March (versus a USD 550 million deficit registered in the same month of 2018).

Mexico

Tomorrow’s Agenda: At 10:00 AM, INEGI will publish CPI for the first half of April. We expect bi-weekly CPI to fall by 0.19%. Assuming our forecast is correct, headline CPI would accelerate to 4.22% yoy (from 4.06% in the second half of March).



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