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Brazilian pension reform proposal confirms minimum age and transition period

February 21, 2019

The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions

Talk of the Day
 

Brazil

The official pension reform proposal was sent to Congress yesterday. As was previously indicated, the bill sets the minimum retirement age of 65 years for men and 62 years for women, with a transition period of 12-14 years. According to the government’s estimates, the proposal will provide savings of around BRL1.16 trillion in the next ten years, similar to markets expectations. The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions, with an expected approval on the Lower House only by the end of the first half of this year or the beginning of the second half-back. We will publish a report with further details on the proposal.

Day ahead: February’s IPCA-15 inflation will be released at 9:00 AM. We forecast a 0.30% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 3.68% (from 3.77% in January). 

Argentina

Day ahead: The trade balance for January will come out at 4:00 PM. We forecast a USD 500 million surplus in January (up from a deficit of USD 900 million registered in the same month of 2018). 

Mexico

Day ahead: At 12:00 PM, the Central Bank will publish the minutes of February’s monetary policy meeting (held two weeks ago), when Board members voted unanimously to leave the policy rate unchanged at 8.25%.

Peru

Day ahead: The Central Bank will publish 4Q18’s GDP growth, including the demand-side breakdown. According to the already-released monthly GDP, activity grew 4.7% yoy in 4Q18 (from 2.3% in the 3Q18).



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