Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Evening Edition – Formal job creation continues to improve in Brazil  

    The current pace of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of 2.1% in annualized terms.

  • Consumers still downbeat in Colombia  

    Continued loosening of the labor market, weaker consumer sentiment and higher short-term inflation could curb consumption growth ahead.

  • Chile’s GDP growth likely peaked in 3Q19  

    Looking ahead, despite some encouraging signs from 3Q19, recent disruptions would deny the persistence of the recovery through 4Q19.

  • Evening Edition – No major releases today  

    Notwithstanding the temporary hiatus, important data are expected for the rest of the week.

  • Evening Edition – Chile’s GDP growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Looking ahead, despite some encouraging signs from 3Q19, recent disruptions would deny the persistence of the recovery through 4Q19

  • Slightly higher inflation expectations for 2019 in Colombia  

    On the other hand, the medium-term outlook remains broadly anchored.

  • Solid retail sales growth in Brazil  

    Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending in the country.

  • Evening Edition – Favorable activity dynamics in Colombia  

    GDP expanded 3.3% in 3Q19 (3.0% in 2Q19), in line with expectations and the highest rate since 2015.

  • Evening Edition – Solid retail sales growth in Brazil  

    Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending in the country.

  • Service sector revenues surprise to the upside in Brazil  

    After this release, our 3Q19 GDP tracking increased slightly to 0.44% qoq/sa from 0.40% qoq/sa.

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenues surprise to the upside in Brazil  

    After this release, our 3Q19 GDP tracking increased slightly to 0.44% qoq/sa from 0.40% qoq/sa.

  • Minutes reinforce the easing bias in Chile  

    Going forward, we expect a 50-bp rate cut, to 1.25%, at the December meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Minutes reinforce the easing bias in Chile  

    Going forward, we expect a 50-bp rate cut, to 1.25%, at the December meeting.

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    Electricity tariff hikes, rise to air travel, and a higher-than-expected spike in tourism packages lifted inflation in the month.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    Electricity tariff hikes, rise to air travel, and a higher-than-expected spike in tourism packages lifted inflation in the month.

  • We now expect a 50-bp rate cut next week in Mexico  

    Previously, we were expecting a 25-bp cut, with the central bank accelerating the pace of monetary policy easing at the December meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation slightly above expectations in Brazil  

    Despite the surprise, October's report was another sign that inflation remains on a benign path.

  • Brazil auctions 2 of 4 fields from the transfer-of-rights oil area  

    In a weaker-than-expected outcome, 2 of the 4 exploratory blocks were sold with small participation from foreign parties.

  • Transfer-of-rights oil surplus auction to be held today in Brazil  

    The bidding round will take place at 10:00 BRT.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil auctions 2 out of 4 fields from the transfer-of-rights oil area  

    Signing bonuses totaled BRL 69.9 billion, below the BRL 106 billion expected by the government

  • Evening Edition – Copom Minutes: Caution at this stage  

    The document reinforced the expectation of an additional 50-bp cut at December’s meeting, but indicated caution going forward.

  • Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    At the margin, activity fell 0.6% from August, the first monthly decline since February.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    At the margin, activity fell 0.6% from August, the first monthly decline since February, as mining fell sharply and non-mining activity also contracted.

  • Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Going forward, our preliminary forecast for 3Q19 GDP was revised to +0.4% qoq/sa (from +0.5% previously).

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    The two components of industrial production closely related to investment remain broadly stable at low levels.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    The minutes of the meeting will be released today.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    Unemployment will fall only gradually, but the informal employment is lowering, giving room to formal jobs.

  • Selic rate reaches 5% p.a. in Brazil  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, cutting the Selic rate by 50 bps, in a unanimous decision.

  • Evening Edition – Selic rate reaches 5% p.a. in Brazil  

    The committee decided to lower the Selic rate with a 50-bp cut, as widely expected.

  • Service sector confidence recedes in Brazil  

    Importantly, the expectations component of all confidence indexes decreased in October, with the biggest drop registered in today’s print.

  • President reshuffles cabinet in Chile  

    Piñera will change the ministers of the Interior, Finance, Economy, among others government members.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The installed capacity utilization level (NUCI) increased 0.3 p.p., to 75.8%, still suggesting a wide slack in production factors.

  • Alberto Fernández is the new president of Argentina  

    In a short and moderate victory speech, Alberto Fernandez said there are difficult times ahead.

  • Evening Edition – President reshuffles cabinet in Chile  

    Piñera will change the ministers of the Interior, Finance, Economy, among others government members.

  • Retail confidence increases in Brazil  

    In all, today’s indicator will help to counterweight the falling trend observed in other confidence indexes so far.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in the country’s private consumption

  • 25-bp policy rate cut in Chile  

    The bank also noted that additional easing could be required to ensure inflation converges to the target, hinting at another cut ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Mexico  

    Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy and trade relations with the U.S. are weighing on investment

  • Brazilian Senate approves base text of the pension reform  

    The voting on the highlights is set to continue today.

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform approved in Brazil  

    After a lengthy process, the main measure of the ongoing fiscal adjustment in the country is finished.

  • Industrial confidence preview retreats in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the print was driven by a drop both in the current conditions and in the expectations component.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Weaker-than-expected deflation in food at home prices was behind the deviation from our call.

  • Transport tariff hike leads to wide scale protests in Chile  

    Our preliminary estimates point at 50bp lower growth in October, likely shaving a couple of basis points for the entire year.

  • Evening Edition – Transport tariff hike leads to wide scale protests in Chile  

    Our preliminary estimates point at a 50bp lower growth in October, likely shaving a couple of basis points for the entire year.

  • Evening Edition – Large trade deficit in Colombia  

    Solid import growth amid a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected job creation in Brazil  

    The current level of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.9% in annualized terms.

  • Colombian Constitutional Court scraps financing law  

    The ruling implies that reform-related revenue received to date can be retained (and for the remainder of 2019).

  • Evening Edition – Inflation spiked in Argentina  

    Consumer prices rose markedly in September, fully reflecting the depreciation of the ARS in the previous month.

  • Brazilian Senate approves the division of the oil auction resources  

    The bill now heads to presidential sanction

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales surprise to the upside in Colombia  

    With private consumption continuing to surprise to the upside, we note that activity growth this year could exceed our 3% forecast

  • Broad activity indicator slightly below market expectations in Brazil  

    This result follows weaker-than-expected readings registered in the retail and services indicators for August

  • Weak service sector data in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that three out of the five main categories declined

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP indicator slightly below market expectations in Brazil  

    Compared to August 2018, the index dropped 0.73%, virtually in line with our forecast (-0.8%) and weaker than the market’s (-0.5%).

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Despite the result, consumption remains in an upward trend.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity numbers in Brazil  

    Service revenues decreased in August, contributing to the weak monthly GDP proxy (PIB-IU) in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Looking forward, withdrawals from the workers’ severance fund (FGTS) will likely provide a temporary boost to retail sales in coming months.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    All core measures remain at comfortable levels, around 3% year-over-year.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    All core measures remain at comfortable levels, around 3% year-over-year.

  • Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    From a monetary policy standpoint, this print consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75%, later this month.

  • Domestic demand remains soft in Mexico  

    Weakness in external demand and uncertainties over the domestic policy and trade relations with the U.S. are weighing on investment.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    From a monetary policy standpoint, this print consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75%, later this month.

  • Evening Edition – Domestic demand remains soft in Mexico  

    Looking forward, we expect GDP growth of 0.4% for 2019.

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    Food, housing and education prices lead the gain in the month.

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity to take center stage next week in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Brazil’s Senate concludes the first-round vote on the pension reform  

    The Senate’s Speaker, Davi Alcolumbre, has declared his intent of starting the discussions of the second-round of voting today

  • Retail sales positive surprise in Chile  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • Evening Edition – Positive retail sales surprise in Chile  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • Brazil’s pension reform approved by the Senate with unexpected dilution  

    There are still 6 amendments to be voted, which is expected to take place today at 11:00 AM

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Senate concludes the first-round vote of the pension reform  

    The Senate’s Speaker, Davi Alcolumbre, has declared his intent of resuming the discussions for the second-round of voting tomorrow.

  • Better-than-expected primary balance in Brazil  

    Despite the improvement, a favorable fiscal scenario depends strictly on the approval of reforms, such as the pension reform.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Looking at the breakdown, the increase in industrial production was not widespread, as just 10 out of 26 activities (38%) expanded during the month.

  • Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    The underemployment rate, which also considers people working for fewer hours than they would like, reached 24.3%.

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected primary balance in Brazil  

    A favorable fiscal scenario depends strictly on the approval of reforms, such as the pension reform

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    According to our seasonally-adjusted series, unemployment rose to 12.0% from 11.9%.

  • Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • Industrial confidence remains stable in Brazil  

    The final indicator printed slightly better than the preview released last week, but remains at low levels.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected job creation in Brazil  

    This level of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.4% in annualized terms.

  • Construction confidence declines in Brazil  

    The capacity utilization for the sector declined 0.2 p.p. (to 69.4%).

  • Retail confidence decreases in Brazil  

    Despite the negative result, the trend looking forward remains positive.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes: Risks limit Selic rate below the 5% level in Brazil, for now  

    The minutes reinforced the likelihood of a 50-bp cut in October, but limited the indication of even lower interest rates, for now.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    Despite tilted balance of risks, rates are likely to remain stable until yearend.

  • Consumer confidence improves in Brazil, but still at a weak level  

    Consumer confidence improves in Brazil, but still at a weak level

  • Evening Edition – Confidence in the industrial sector deteriorates in Brazil  

    The final survey result will be published on Thursday, and, given the small decline in today’s result, may indicate a different trend.

  • Argentina’s modest GDP improvement tends to be short-lived  

    No relief for the economic downturn. We recently adjusted our GDP forecasts down to -2.5% (from -1.4%).

  • Evening Edition – New changes to monetary aggregate targets in Argentina  

    Higher-than-expected inflation due to the depreciation of the peso reduced the money supply, leading to an excessive monetary contraction.

  • BCB cuts 50 bps and signals further easing ahead  

    The statement indicates that another 50-bp “adjustment” of the base rate is likely in the October meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s central bank continues the easing cycle with a 50-bp cut  

    We will publish an in-depth report on Copom’s decision later tonight.

  • BCB set to cut 50 bps tonight  

    The backdrop of a continued easing cycle has not changed significantly since the last policy decision, on July 31, when the Selic was cut by 50 bps.

  • Inflation and rates expectations decline further in Brazil  

    Additionally, Petrobras will not adjust fuel prices in the domestic market, despite oil prices soaring after the attacks in Saudi Arabia.

  • Evening Edition – Copom to take center stage in Brazil tomorrow  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate again, to 5.50%, at tomorrow's meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation and rates expectations decline further in Brazil  

    The year-end Selic rate forecast declined 25 bps to 5.0% for 2020 amidst a sluggish economic recovery and benign inflation outlook.

  • Ambiguous activity data in Brazil  

    The economic recovery is still slow and relatively erratic.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly activity indicator retreats in Brazil  

    The weak BCB’s index goes against the stronger-than-expected increases registered in the retail and services indicators for the same period.

  • Stronger-than-expected service data in Brazil  

    The more important components for our GDP tracking declined in the month, but the drop was softer than previously expected.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected service sector revenues in Brazil  

    The more important components for our GDP tracking declined in the month, but the drop was softer than previously expected

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Credit-linked sales continue to grow faster than income-sensitive ones, given the slow-paced employment recovery.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Credit-linked sales continue to grow faster than income-sensitive ones, given the slow-paced employment recovery.

  • Analysts expect further monetary easing in Chile  

    The change goes in line with our view that the global slowdown, along with disappointing domestic dynamism, justifies additional rate cuts.

  • Evening Edition – Analysts expect further easing in Chile  

    The change goes in line with our view that the global slowdown, along with disappointing domestic dynamism, justifies additional rate cuts.

  • Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Moderating inflation means higher odds of further monetary easing, likely already in September.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Moderating inflation means higher odds of further monetary easing, likely already in September.

  • Inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Lower food and transport prices offset the upward pressures stemming from changes in electricity tariff flag prices.

  • Activity accelerates slightly in Chile  

    Despite an expected improvement of growth pace data in 3Q19, activity remains structurally weak, paving the road for additional easing ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Lower food and transport prices offset the upward pressures stemming from changes in electricity tariff flag prices

  • Evening Edition – Activity improves at the margin but remains weak in Chile  

    Weak activity corroborates the central bank signaling that additional easing may be necessary to ensure inflation converges to the target

  • Brazil’s pension reform approved at the Senate’s Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The text will now head to the Senate’s floor

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform base text approved at Senate’s Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The committee is currently voting on the amendments and once the voting process is concluded, the text will head to the Senate’s floor.

  • Chilean central bank cuts rates by 50 bps  

    The press release communicating the decision holds an easing bias, so even further cuts could materialize ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    July’s print showed no signs of recovery in the industrial sector, renewing expectations of a slow-paced activity recovery in the short term

  • Datafolha shows a decline in President Bolsonaro’s approval rate  

    29% consider his administration as “good” or “excellent”, somewhat lower than the 33% observed in the latest Datafolha poll, from July 4 and 5.

  • Argentina announces capital controls  

    President Macri signed an executive order on Sunday to implement controls, a couple days after the country announced a debt restructuring.

  • Evening Edition – Argentina announces capital controls  

    In our view, the room to avoid capital controls was very limited.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate declines in Brazil  

    Going forward, we expect the unemployment rate — under our seasonal adjustment — to finish the year at 11.8%.

  • S&P downgrades Argentina to Selective Default  

    The administration is sending legislation to Congress to engage in a re-profiling of the remaining debt

  • Argentina takes the first step of sovereign debt restructuring  

    Economy Minister Lacunza announced a rescheduling of amortization payments of short-term local law bills denominated in pesos and in dollars

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected GDP in Brazil  

    Our GDP growth forecasts are 0.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020

  • Service confidence declines in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the decline was driven by the expectations component

  • Evening Edition – Service confidence declines in Brazil  

    The result went in the opposite direction of other business sectors and consumer sentiment indicators, which improved in the month.

  • Construction confidence increases in August  

    The capacity utilization for the sector advanced 0.7 p.p. (to 69.6%), the fifth consecutive increase

  • Evening Edition – BCB intervenes in the FX market  

    A plain sale of reserves to the market hadn’t took place since 2009.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence increases in Brazil  

    The installed capacity utilization level increased slightly to 75.8%, still suggesting a slack in production factors.

  • Industrial confidence increases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows increases in both the current conditions (+1.2 p.p.) and the expectations component (+0.4 p.p.)

  • Retail confidence improves in Brazil  

    Retail confidence advanced 3.2 p.p. in August (to 98.7), the third consecutive increase.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sector confidence increases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the movement was driven by the current conditions component

  • Consumer confidence improves in Brazil, but still at a weak level  

    Despite the increase, the index remain at a weak level.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    For the time being, our full-year estimates for the IPCA are 3.6% for both 2019 and 2020

  • Argentina’s central bank to adopt measures to curb exchange rate volatility  

    Uncertainties regarding the ability of the federal government to service public debt will likely continue, with adverse consequences for the peso and inflation

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    Relative to 2018, we expect private consumption to moderate its pace in 2019

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence increases slightly in Brazil  

    This level of industrial business confidence is still low, consistent with a decline of 0.3% qoq/sa in industrial production.

  • Industrial confidence preview increases slightly in August  

    The breakdown shows an increase in both the current conditions and the expectations components.

  • Evening Edition – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity in Chile  

    Overall, the economy continues to grow at a weak pace, hinting that demand-side inflationary pressures are low.

  • Fitch downgrades Argentina  

    Fitch downgraded Argentina's sovereign debt from B to CCC.

  • Easing cycle begins in Mexico  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%.

  • Evening Edition – Fitch downgrades Argentina  

    In the statement announcing the decision, the rating agency highlighted the uncertainty following the results of the primary elections.

  • Mixed activity data in Colombia  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • Evening Edition – Easing cycle begins in Mexico  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%.

  • Evening Edition – Mixed activity data in Colombia  

    Activity came in mixed at the end of the second quarter, with retail sales remaining strong, while the manufacturing drag intensified.

  • Markets continue under pressure in Argentina  

    According to the press, the government will announce today a battery of measures to alleviate markets.

  • Evening Edition – Awaiting data releases in Colombia  

    Industrial production, retail sales and trade balance will be published at 12:00 AM.

  • Asset prices plummet in Argentina  

    The changes follow the presidential primary elections held on Sunday, which showed a very different outcome than anticipated by pollsters.

  • Alberto Fernández wins key primary vote in Argentina  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Asset prices plummet in Argentina  

    Since Friday, the ARS weakened 23%, to 55.7 per USD. The interest rate paid on the 7-day Leliq rose to 74.8% from 63.7%, while the 5-year CDS hit 2,000 points.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our forecasts remain at 3.6% for both 2019 and 2020.

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenue drops sharply in Brazil  

    At the margin, the indicator declined 1.0% mom/sa, taking the 3-month moving average to -0.2%.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves pension reform with no further changes  

    The bill now heads to the Senate, where it will need to be approved by three-fifths majority in two rounds of voting once more.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our forecasts remain at 3.6% for both 2019 and 2020.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves base text of pension reform  

    There were 370 votes in favor and 124 against the proposal, both somewhat below the numbers of the first vote on the bill.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales disappoint market estimates in Brazil  

    Broad retail sales were flat (+0.0%) in the month, while core retail sales expanded 0.2% mom/sa, both below market expectations.

  • Evening Edition – BCB continues to signal a 50-bp cut in September  

    The document also brought a lengthy, and interesting, assessment of the effects of social security reform on neutral rates.

  • Monthly GDP proxy weaker-than-expected in Chile  

    Despite a more favorable base of comparison and added stimulus measures, sufficient headwinds would limit the recovery ahead

  • Chile: weak retail sales in June  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    The non-mining GDP component posted its first monthly decline this year.

  • Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    The components more closely related to investment (construction inputs and capital goods) also receded in the month, with no signs of recovery.

  • Evening Edition – Weak consumption in Chile  

    Low private confidence, a volatile external scenario, contained copper prices, and a weak labor market have resulted in an activity slowdown.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    The components more closely related to investment also declined in the month, with no signs of recovery.

  • Copom: 50-bp cut, signaling another 50-bp adjustment ahead  

    The Copom reduced the interest rate by 0.50 pp and signaled an additional adjustment of the same magnitude at the next meeting.

  • Brazil´s central bank to start an easing cycle today  

    In our view, recent data are consistent with the start of a more intense easing cycle, with a 50-bp cut in the Selic rate.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s central bank starts an easing cycle with a 50-bp cut  

    Later tonight, we will publish a more in-depth report on the Copom’s decision.

  • Service confidence advances further in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven both by the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Evening Edition – Service confidence advances further in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven both by the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Drop in industrial confidence confirmed in Brazil  

    Despite the decline, the final indicator printed better than the preview released last week.

  • Evening Edition – Drop in industrial confidence confirmed in Brazil  

    Despite the decline, the final indicator printed better than the preview released last week, when industrial confidence fell by 1.7 p.p.

  • Evening Edition – Construction confidence advances in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Construction confidence advances in Brazil  

    Confidence in the sector accelerated further from June, but remains at pessimistic levels.

  • Retail confidence increases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven both by the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Evening Edition – Job creation above expectations in Brazil  

    Despite the acceleration, the current level of formal job creation is consistent with a still-timid 1.0% GDP growth, in year-over-year terms.

  • Evening Edition – New rules for FGTS withdrawals announced in Brazil  

    The Economic Policy Secretary, Adolfo Sachsida, stated that this measure may increase GDP by 0.35% between 2019 and 2020

  • Consumer confidence falls in Brazil  

    Although small, the drop halts the recovery trend seen in June, when confidence indicators from almost all sectors registered increases.

  • Lower-than-expected activity pickup in Colombia  

    Weak consumer confidence, labor market, and lower global growth make us believe a meaningful and durable activity acceleration this year is unlikely. 

  • Evening Edition – Inflation below expectations in Brazil  

    After the release of today's result, we revised slightly our estimate for the headline IPCA in July to 0.20%.

  • Evening Edition – Industry confidence drops further in Brazil  

    The low level of confidence is consistent, in our calculations, with a 0.4% qoq/sa decline of industrial production in the month.

  • Industry confidence drops further in Brazil  

    With the result, confidence in the industrial sector continues to show no signs of a rebound.

  • Stable rates in Chile, for now  

    Looking forward, we expect the policy rate to reach 2.0% by yearend, with the next cut likely in September. 

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile, for now  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Monetary policy decision to be announced tonight in Chile  

    We expect stable rates at this meeting

  • Consumer confidence deteriorates further in Colombia  

    Pessimism has reigned for consumers in 9 of the last 10 months.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence deteriorates further in Colombia  

    Pessimism has reigned for consumers in 9 of the last 10 months.

  • Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina  

    Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July.

  • Monthly GDP indicators expand in Brazil  

    Both BCB and Itaú's monthly GDP indicators increased in May.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina  

    Consumer prices decelerated for the third consecutive month in June.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP index expands in Brazil  

    Both BCB and Itaú's monthly GDP increased in May.

  • Brazilian Lower House finishes first vote with a BRL 865 bn reform  

    Now, the second round of voting is very likely to take place only in August.

  • Brazilian Lower House still voting on amendments to the pension reform  

    On Wednesday, the House concluded the first round of voting on the base text, with 379 votes in favor and 131 against the proposal.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected service sector revenues in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House still voting on amendments to the pension reform  

    Last night, the House concluded the first round of voting on the base text, with 379 votes in favor and 131 against the proposal.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves the main text of the pension reform  

    The plenary started to analyze the highlights, and, possibly later this week, will move on to the second round of voting

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House may vote the pension reform in the next hours  

    The Lower House is currently analyzing the requirements and, once this step is completed, the plenary will be able to vote the main text.

  • Lower House approaches pension reform vote in Brazil  

    According to local news, the Lower House is set to begin in the next hours the first round of voting on the pension reform.

  • Weak activity in Chile  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year.

  • Evening Edition – Low inflation in Chile  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Pension reform approved at the Special Committe in Brazil  

    The Lower House will probably start to analyze the proposal on Tuesday

  • Waiting for the pension reform vote in Brazil  

    It will be important to monitor how these steps will evolve, in order to gauge the timing of the first Lower House floor vote.

  • Evening Edition – Special committee starts to vote on the pension reform in Brazil  

    The committee is now voting on the amendments, which might be concluded today

  • Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    After this result, our GDP tracking for 2Q19 increased slightly, to 0.3% qoq/sa (from 0.2% previously)

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales temporary boost in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth of 2.4%, down from 4% in 2018

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    Industrial production declined 0.2% mom/sa in May.

  • Industrial production to be released in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.6% decline on seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Evening Edition – Interest rate expectations continue to fall in Brazil  

    The median of the Selic rate expectations declined to 5.50%, from 5.75%.


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