Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • New poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Second round simulations shows Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Ciro Gomes (36% vs 38%, respectively) and Fernando Haddad (39% vs 36%, respectively)

  • Evening Edition – Sluggish trade deficit adjustment in Colombia in July  

    The trade deficit came in at USD 557 million, closer to market consensus (USD 600 million forecast), than our USD 719 million estimate.

  • Evening Edition - Polls shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Second round scenarios show Jair Bolsonaro improving his voting intentions

  • Datafolha poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Second round simulations shows Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad, Marina Silva and Geraldo Alckmin, and losing to Ciro Gomes (38% to 45%)

  • Evening Edition – Itaú Unibanco's monthly GDP expands in July  

    Compared to the year-earlier period, it rose 1.6%.

  • Brazilian retail sales decline in July  

    Given the poor performance of recent months, the quarterly change slipped back to negative levels after 18 months of gains

  • Polls shows Bolsonaro leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Both polls show the same result

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian retail sales decline in July  

    Compared to one year ago, core sales declined 1.0% and experienced the first negative reading under this metric in 16 months.

  • Evening Edition – Paraná Pesquisas shows Bolsonaro leading in Brazil  

    Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the presidential race with 27% of voting intentions, followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 12%.

  • Ibope shows Bolsonaro leading voting intentions in Brazil  

    The poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) with 26% of voting intentions (from 22% in the previous Ibope poll)

  • Evening Edition – Ibope poll shows Bolsonaro leading voting intentions in Brazil  

    The poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) with 26% of voting intentions (from 22% in the previous Ibope poll), followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 11% (from 12%)

  • Datafolha shows Bolsonaro with 24% of voting intentions in Brazil  

    In this scenario, blanks, nulls and undecided voters dropped to 22% of the electorate, coming from 28% in the previous poll

  • Evening Edition – Inflation as expected in Chile and above forecasts in Mexico  

    Overall, inflationary pressures remained controlled, with headline inflation ticking down 0.1pp to 2.6% in Chile.

  • Brazilian IPCA shows deflation in August  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.40% hike that would push the year-over-year rate up to 4.4%

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian IPCA shows deflation in August  

    Year-to-date, the IPCA went up 2.85% and the year-over-year change decelerated to 4.19%.

  • According to Ibope, Jair Bolsonaro leads the presidential race in Brazil  

    This is the first poll  since the recent decision by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) to bar Lula from the election

  • Chilean Monetary Policy Meeting: On course to hike?  

    Our baseline scenario relies on the expectation that trade tensions will ease in the months ahead

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Growth in the month was 3.3%, above the Bloomberg market consensus of 2.9% and our 2.5% call.

  • A more challenging fiscal deficit target in Argentina  

    At current real exchange rate levels, the net public debt will likely end this year at 56% of GDP.

  • Evening Edition – Chilean Monetary Policy Meeting: On course to hike?  

    The board is alert to mounting external risks, but remains upbeat with the domestic economic outlook.

  • Brazilian court bars Lula from presidential election  

    The electoral court will give the PT ten days to present a substitute candidate

  • Evening Edition – A more challenging fiscal deficit target in Argentina  

    The treasury will target a primary fiscal deficit of 0% of GDP in 2019.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP rises 0.2% in 2Q18 as underlying growth loses momentum  

    On a year-over-year basis, GDP growth has been decelerating.

  • Fighting market turmoil in Argentina  

    The still turbulent external environment (including uncertainty over reforms in Brazil) is also a key obstacle for stabilization

  • In Brazil, Electoral court may review Lula's candidacy tomorrow, 31 Aug  

    The court may not review his candidacy tomorrow, but still rule on whether he can or not ask for votes in the television and radio propaganda

  • Evening Edition – Fighting market turmoil in Argentina  

    The policy rate (the 7-day Leliq, a bill issued by the monetary authority) is now at 60%.

  • Evening Edition – Delinquency in Brazilian corporate loans falls sharply in July  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.5% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment and increased 2.7% for earmarked loans.

  • Brazil’s industrial confidence falls further in August  

    The result reinforces the outlook of weak underlying growth shown by a broad set of economic indicators

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s industrial confidence falls further in August  

    The result reinforces the outlook of weak underlying growth shown by a broad set of economic indicators.

  • President Trump announced a trade deal with Mexico, Canada may join later  

    Trump said that they will terminate NAFTA deal and replace it with the one agreed with Mexico

  • Current account deficit slightly deteriorated in Mexico in the 2Q18  

    The worsening in the current account was accounted by a deterioration in the trade, services, and net income deficit

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian current account deficit reaches USD 4.4 billion in July  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 15 billion (or 0.8% of GDP).

  • Brazil’s IPCA-15 rose 0.13% in August, slightly above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in August is -0.02%

  • Evening Edition – Current account deficit deteriorated slightly in Mexico in the 2Q18  

    The worsening in the current account was accounted by a deterioration in the trade, services and net income deficits.

  • Formal job creation continues to decelerate in Brazil  

    The next readings may continue to be negatively influenced by tighter financial conditions and higher economic uncertainty

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian inflation decelerating after impact from truckers’ stoppage  

    Year-to-date inflation reached 3.14%, while the year-over-year change decelerated to 4.30%.

  • Evening Edition – Formal job creation continues to decelerate in Brazil  

    The sectorial breakdown show gains in the service and agricultural sectors, while commerce industry receded at the margin.

  • Poll shows Bolsonaro with 20% of voting intentions in the scenario without Lula  

    In the scenario without Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the presidential race with 20% of voting intentions (coming from 17% in the previous Ibope poll)

  • Evening Edition – Argentine fiscal deficit continued to narrow in July  

    The treasury reported a primary deficit of ARS 14.3 billion in July.

  • Evening Edition – Chilean investment recovery continues in 2Q18  

    GDP increased 5.3% year over year, just above the 5.2% derived from the monthly GDP proxy (Imacec).

  • Electoral polls on the spotlight in Brazil  

    Two nationwide polls are expected to be released today

  • Mexican Monetary Policy Minutes signals rate on-hold, but still mindful of risks  

    In our view, a successful renegotiation of NAFTA would likely mean an end to the tightening cycle.

  • Evening Edition – Electoral polls on the spotlight  

    The main highlights will come from the political side next week.

  • Evening Edition – Mexican Monetary Policy Minutes signals rate on-hold, but still mindful of risks  

    The minutes reaffirmed that the board sees current inflationary pressures as transitory (restricted to non-core prices).

  • Brazil’s IBC-Br Activity Index normalizes in June  

    The result reflects the normalization on major monthly indicators

  • Trade deficit correction slows in Colombia  

    The continued narrowing is explained by the energy balance improvement

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IBC-Br Activity Index normalizes in June  

    The result reflects the normalization on major monthly indicators.

  • New measures to deal with new shock in Argentina  

    In our view, recent measures will only be sufficient to stabilize the peso and other asset prices if strains on external financial markets diminish

  • Evening Edition – Trade deficit correction slows in Colombia in 2Q18  

    The USD 719 million trade deficit in June was smaller than Bloomberg market consensus' of USD 800 million and our USD 917 million forecast.

  • No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in Brazil’s retail sales in June  

    Our estimate for core retail sales is a 0.5% increase.

  • Evening Edition – New measures to deal with new shock in Argentina  

    The policy rate (the 7-day Leliq, a bill issued by the monetary authority) is now at 45%.

  • Evening Edition – No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in Brazilian retail sales in June  

    Broad retail sales advanced 2.5% mom/sa, topping the median of market expectations (2.1%) and our call (1.6%).

  • Transitory factors lift Mexican inflation in July  

    We expect inflation to decrease to 4.0% by the end of this year

  • Brazil’s IPCA rises above median of market expectations in July  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in August is a 0.03% move that would push the year-over-year rate down to 4.32%

  • Evening Edition – Transitory factors lift Mexican inflation in July  

    Headline inflation came in at 4.81 year-over-year in July, while core inflation remained practically unchanged

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IPCA rises above median of market expectations in July  

    Inflation decelerated sharply from 1.26% in June, showing the waning impact of the cargo transportation stoppages and the red mode in the tariff flag system

  • A New policy rate in Argentina, with no room to cut it  

    We do not see room for interest-rate cuts before the market stabilizes more clearly

  • Evening Edition – New policy rate in Argentina, yet with no room to cut it  

    The rate was set at 40%, the same level of the previous policy rate (center of the 7-day repo corridor).

  • Recovery of non-mining activity in Chile in 2Q18  

    The annual Imacec (monthly GDP proxy) variation was 4.9%, slightly below Bloomberg market consensus’ (5.3%) and our forecast (5.2%)

  • Evening Edition – Recovery of non-mining activity consolidates in Chile in 2Q18  

    The annual Imacec (monthly GDP proxy) variation was 4.9%, slightly below Bloomberg market consensus’ (5.3%) and our forecast (5.2%).

  • Poll indicates higher voting intentions for Alckmin in São Paulo  

    This is the first time that Alckmin leads a poll in the 2018's elections

  • Mexican Central Bank leaves the policy rate unchanged, amid a stronger peso  

    In our view, a successful renegotiation of NAFTA would likely mean an end to the tightening cycle

  • Evening Edition – No rate moves in sight in Colombia  

    The board seems comfortable with the current policy rate level, signaling that under current conditions there is no need for additional cut

  • No rate move for the time being in Brazil  

    We will learn more about the rationale for this decision with the release of the Copom minutes on Tuesday

  • Evening Edition – Mexican Central Bank leaves the policy rate unchanged, amid a stronger peso  

    In the statement, the central bank highlighted that recent upside surprises of inflation were due to transitory factors.

  • Evening Edition – Copom: two way risks, but no rate move for the time being in Brazil  

    The authorities undertook the usual factual updates, noting the effects of the transportation sector disruption on activity and inflation.

  • Unemployment rate is still high in Brazil  

    Our forecasts for the average unemployment rate are 12.4% in 2018 and 12.2% in 2019

  • Brazil registers primary deficit of BRL 13.5 billion in June  

    Keeping this favorable scenario consistently depends strictly on the approval of reforms

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate is still high in Brazil  

    The unemployment rate is 0.6 p.p. lower than in June 2017.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil registers primary deficit of BRL 13.5 billion in June  

    The general government’s gross debt went up to 77.2% of GDP in June.

  • No surprise as rates remain steady in Colombia  

    We do not see the board in any haste to modify the policy rate

  • Brazil registers USD 435 million current account surplus in June  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 13.9 billion (0.7% of GDP)

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Central Government’s deficit came in a little worse than expected in Jun  

    Compared to our forecasts, revenues came a little lower and expenditures mostly in line the expected.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil registers USD 435 million current account surplus in June  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to $13.9 billion, or 0.7% of GDP.

  • Argentine trade deficit narrowed significantly in June  

    The deficit was in line with our forecast (USD 400 million) and below market expectations (USD 550 million, according to Bloomberg)

  • Evening Edition – Argentine trade deficit narrowed significantly in June  

    The trade balance showed a deficit of USD 382 million, almost half the amount registered in the same month of last year (USD 750 million).

  • Activity in Argentina deteriorates sharply in May  

    We see downside risk to our 0.5% growth forecast for this year

  • Evening Edition – Activity in Argentina deteriorates sharply in May  

    Activity dropped by 5.8% YoY in May (vs. market expectations of a 1.3% contraction and our forecast of a 1.0% decline).

  • Mexican economy lost pace in May dragged by industrial sectors  

    The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 2.2% year-over-year in May, below our forecast (2.8%) and in line with median market expectations

  • Evening Edition – Mexican economy lost pace in May dragged by industrial sectors  

    The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 2.2% year-over-year in May, below our forecast (2.8%) and in line with median market expectations.

  • Lower than expected Inflation and formal job creation in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in July is an increase of 0.28%

  • Evening Edition – Inflation and formal job creation lower than expected in Brazil  

    Regulated prices were behind the biggest deviation from our forecast.

  • Brazilian local news indicate the “big-center” will build an alliance with PSDB  

    If confirmed, the allieance will take the share of TV and Radio campaign time of the PSDB alliance to almost 50%.

  • Argentina’s monetary policy report on focus  

    We expect the report to shed light on the monetary policy framework

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit remained unchanged in Argentina but met target agreed upon with IMF  

    The nominal deficit (now including the interest bill) fell to 5.3% in June.

  • Evening Edition – New poll shows Bolsonaro with 22% and Alckmin with 19% in São Paulo  

    The results indicate that voting intentions between the two pre-candidates is broadly unchanged, with Bolsonaro’s lead still at around 3p.p.

  • In Brazil, Paraná Pesquisas poll shows Bolsonaro with 22% and Alckmin with 19% in the state of SP  

    Marina Silva’s voting intentions seem to be declining a bit, now at 10%

  • Brazil’s IBC-BR Activity Index fell 3.3% in May  

    The result reflects the widespread decline as a result of truckers’ stoppages in the last two weeks of May

  • Evening Edition – Higher inflation in June in Argentina due to a weaker currency  

    CPI rose 3.7% from May to June, slightly above the Bloomberg market consensus forecast of 3.6%.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IBC Activity Index fell 3.3% in May  

    The result reflects the widespread decline observed in industrial production, retail sales and services real revenues.

  • Brazilian services sector’s real revenue fell 3.8% mom/sa in May  

    The breakdown shows mom/sa declines in 9 out of 12 sectors

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian service sector’s real revenue fell 3.8% mom/sa in May  

    The breakdown shows mom/sa declines in 9 out of 12 sectors, with transportation as the highlight.

  • Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May in Brazil  

    Eight out of 10 broad retail components posted seasonally-adjusted monthly drops in May

  • Brazilian economic activity data rebounding in June  

    The dynamics has been heavily affected by the truckers’ stoppage between May 21-29

  • Evening Edition – Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May in Brazil  

    Broad retail sales dropped 4.9% mom/sa, missing the median of market expectations and our call (both at -3.2%).

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian economic activity data remains positive in June  

    The dynamics has been heavily affected by the truckers’ stoppage between May 21-29.

  • Argentina’s Central bank changes monetary policy framework  

    We do not see room for interest-rate cuts before the market stabilizes more clearly

  • Evening Edition – Traffic of heavy vehicles rebounds in June in Brazil  

    The strong growth suggests some payback from the weakness in May.

  • Policy rate to remain stable at 4.25% in Colombia  

    The decision was in line with comments by some board members prior to the meeting that pointed to the limited room for additional rate cuts

  • Evening Edition - The consumer price index IPCA climbed 1.26% in Brazil  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 1.26% in June, below our estimate (1.35%) and near the median of market expectations (1.28%)

  • Truckers’ stoppage significantly affected industrial production in Brazil  

    The sharp decline was caused by the trucker’ stoppage, which affected supply and production chains in the final two weeks of the month

  • Evening Edition - Doors open both for further hikes and policy rate maintenance in Mexico  

    The minutes suggest the next decision is more open

  • Evening Edition - Truckers’ stoppage affected industrial production in Brazil  

    Compared to May 2017, the indicator was down by 6.7%

  • Brazil’s trade surplus reached $5.9 billion in June  

    Over 12 months, the trade surplus shrank to $61 billion

  • Brazil’s GDP growth expectations remained stable for 2018  

    The median GDP growth expectations remained stable for 2018 after eight consecutive weekly declines

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s trade surplus reached $5.9 billion in June  

    The result came in below our estimate ($6.2 billion) and market’s consensus ($6.6 billion)

  • AMLO wins Mexico’s presidential elections by a wide margin  

    Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s presidential elections

  • Evening Edition – AMLO wins Mexico’s presidential elections by a wide margin  

    The anti-establishment candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s presidential elections

  • The presidential race remains wide open in Brazil  

    The level of blank/null/undecided voters is significantly higher

  • Evening Edition – Colombia's central bank kept the monetary policy rate at 4.25  

    In its fourth monetary policy meeting of the year, the central bank of Colombia kept the monetary policy rate at 4.25

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian central government registers higher than expected deficit in May  

    We continue to believe that the government will meet its primary-deficit target for the year (2.2% of GDP or BRL 161 billion).

  • New non-earmarked loans and delinquency rate fell in May in Brazil  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans declined 1.0% mom/sa in real terms and delinquency fell 0.1 p.p. to 3.2%

  • Evening Edition – New non-earmarked loans and delinquency fell in May in Brazil  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency fell 0.1 p.p. to 3.2%.

  • Brazil’s National Monetary Council sets inflation target for 2021 at 3.75%  

    The National Monetary Council (CMN) announced that the inflation target for 2021 is 3.75

  • Brazil registers USD 729 million current account surplus in May  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 13 billion or 0.65% of GDP.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s National Monetary Council sets inflation target for 2021 at 3.75%  

    The number is down from 4.5% this year, 4.25% in 2019 and 4.0% in 2020.

  • Mexican momentum of activity weakened a bit in April  

    After a robust performance in 1Q18, the economy weakened somewhat in April.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil registers USD 729 million current account surplus in May  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 13 billion or 0.65% of GDP.

  • Evening Edition – Mexican momentum of activity weakened a bit in April  

    The apparently high print, nevertheless, is inflated by a big calendar effect.

  • Not the last hike of the cycle in Mexico  

    Mexico’s central bank increased its policy rate by 25-bps as expected by us and the majority of market analysts

  • Evening Edition – Not the last hike of the cycle in Mexico  

    In justifying the decision, the central bank mentioned a deterioration of the balance of risks for inflation.

  • Copom keeps rate unchanged in Brazil  

    In the reference scenario, which assumes stable Selic and FX rate, inflation forecasts are set at 4.2% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.

  • Argentine GDP growth to decelerate further, as fiscal consolidation continues  

    Growth was consistent with market expectations (according to the Bloomberg survey) and with the official monthly GDP proxy (EMAE).

  • Evening Edition – Copom keeps rate unchanged in Brazil  

    In the reference scenario, which assumes stable Selic and FX rate, inflation forecasts are set at 4.2% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.

  • GDP growth expectations decline in Brazil  

    Lower GDP and higher inflation is expected in Brazil according do the Focus survey

  • Evening Edition – Argentine GDP growth to decelerate further, as fiscal consolidation continues  

    Growth was consistent with market expectations (according to the Bloomberg survey) and with the official monthly GDP proxy (EMAE).

  • Evening Edition – Iván Duque elected president of Colombia  

    Former president Uribe’s backed Duque, who will take office on August 7, will have to deal with a manifold of challenges.

  • Iván Duque elected president of Colombia  

    Ivan Duque won the presidential election in Colombia

  • Evening Edition – Brazil's Copom Cockpit: stability amid a more challenging scenario  

    Since the Copom meeting in May, the scenario has become increasingly challenging.

  • LatAm Talking Points – Argentine peso depreciation triggers change in central bank’s command  

    The relatively low headline inflation was favored by regulated prices, which increased by only 0.4% MoM.

  • Brazil’s retail sales rise in April and continue upward trend  

    Nine out of 10 broad retail components posted seasonally-adjusted monthly increases in April.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation outlook deteriorates in Argentina despite positive headline CPI surprise  

    The relatively low headline inflation was favored by regulated prices, which increased by only 0.4% MoM.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s retail sales rise in April and continue upward trend  

    Nine out of 10 broad retail components posted seasonally-adjusted monthly increases in April.

  • Argentine Central Bank maintained interest rates at 40% and sold USD 695 million in the spot market  

    A rate hike is not completely off the table in the near term.

  • Mexican industrial production lost momentum in April  

    In April, seasonally-adjusted industrial production fell 0.4% from the previous month.

  • Evening Edition – Argentine Central Bank left monetary policy rate unchanged  

    A rate hike is not completely off the table in the near term.

  • The presidential race remains wide open in Brazil  

    The Datafolha poll was undertaken after the truck drivers stoppage and shows no major change relative to earlier surveys.

  • Evening Edition – Mexican industrial production lost momentum in April  

    In April, seasonally-adjusted industrial production fell 0.4% from the previous month.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IPCA rises above expectations in May  

    The year-over-year change accelerated to 2.86% from 2.76% in April.

  • Ilan Goldfajn announced stronger interventions in the FX market  

    According to the BCB governor, Ilan Goldfajn, the central bank will step up interventions in the FX market to reduce volatility

  • Strong decline in Brazil’s auto production in May following truck drivers’ stoppage  

    Weak result in May’s auto production following truck drivers’ strike

  • Evening Edition – Ilan Goldfajn announced stronger interventions in the FX market  

    According to the BCB governor, Ilan Goldfajn, the central bank will step up interventions in the FX market to reduce volatility

  • Brazilian Central Bank intervenes in FX markets  

    Following significant BRL depreciation Brazilian Central Bank intervenes in FX markets

  • Evening Edition – Strong decline in Brazil’s auto production in May following truck drivers’ strike  

    In yoy terms, auto production receded 15.3%.

  • GDP growth expectations decline in Argentina and Brazil  

    Analysts revised their inflation expectations markedly upward after the sharp weakening of the peso last month

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Central Bank intervenes in the market to contain currency depreciation  

    The currency finished the day valued at BRL 3.81/USD.

  • Evening Edition – GDP growth expectations decline in Argentina and Brazil  

    Pundits forecast GDP to grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019 in Argentina

  • Perfect storm will likely lead the Mexican Central Bank to hike rates in June  

    In our view, risks have intensified recently.

  • Brazil’s GDP rises modestly in 1Q18, extending gradual recovery  

    GDP expanded 0.4% qoq/sa in 1Q18, slightly better than market expectations (0.3%)

  • Evening Edition – Perfect storm will likely lead the Mexican Central Bank to hike rates in June  

    In our view, risks have intensified recently.

  • Brazilian central government’s surplus better-than-expected in April  

    The central government posted a BRL 7.2 billion primary surplus in April, better than market expectations

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s GDP rises modestly in 1Q18, extending gradual recovery  

    Year-over-year growth reached 1.2%, printing between the median of market estimates (1.3%) and our call (1.0%).

  • Ibope poll in São Paulo shows increase in voting intentions for Jair Bolsonaro (PSL)  

    In the scenario without Lula, Bolsonaro’s voting intentions increased to 19% from 16% a month ago.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian central government’s surplus better-than-expected in April  

    The surprise came from higher net-revenues, especially those from oil royalties.

  • Update on fiscal measures aimed at ending truck-drivers’ strike in Brazil  

    President Temer announced additional measures aimed at ending the strikes

  • Evening Edition – Update on fiscal measures aimed at ending truck-drivers’ strike in Brazil  

    Diesel prices will be cut by 0.46 BRL / liter, with a BRL 13.5 billion fiscal cost until year-end.

  • Government announces agreement with truck drivers, with lower fiscal cost  

    Yesterday, the government announced several measures aimed at ending the truck-drivers’ strike

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian government acts to end truck-drivers’ strike, which continued on Friday  

    The government will reduce the CIDE tax on fuels to zero until year-end, with a decline in tax collection of around BRL 1.5 billion.

  • Evening Edition – Reduction of fuel taxes to impact fiscal accounts in Brazil  

    The net negative fiscal impact for this year will be of around BRL 10 billion.

  • Lower House Approves reduction in fuel taxes with negative fiscal impact  

    The Lower house approved yesterday a reduction in the PIS/Cofins tax to zero, with negative fiscal impact

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IPCA-15 rises below the lowest of market estimates  

    Year-to-date inflation reached 1.23%, while the year-over-year change slid to 2.70% from 2.80% in April.

  • Argentine Central Bank on hold, while activity starts to weaken  

    Argentine Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate (7-day repo rate) unchanged at 40%

  • Brazil’s IPCA expectations rises amid exchange rate devaluation  

    IPCA inflation expectations increased for 2018 to 3.50% (from 3.45%)

  • Evening Edition – Argentine Central Bank on hold, while activity starts to weaken  

    The central bank expects core inflation to remain at high levels in May, given its high-frequency indicators (2.1% mom in April).

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IPCA expectations rises amid exchange rate devaluation  

    IPCA inflation expectations increased for 2018 to 3.50% (from 3.45%).

  • Chile starts 2018 with stronger than expected activity  

    Chile’s GDP was strong in the first quarter of 2018, both at the margin and on annual basis

  • Evening Edition – Chile starts 2018 with stronger than expected activity  

    The economy increased 4.2% year over year, above expectations of 4.0% derived from the monthly GDP proxy (Imacec).

  • Mexico’s Central Bank stays on-hold as expected with tone of statement unchanged  

    In Mexico, the central bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 7.5%

  • Evening Edition – Mexico’s Central Bank stays on-hold as expected with tone of statement unchanged  

    The central bank still sees the current policy stance as consistent with inflation convergence.

  • Brazil's Copom: End of cycle  

    The Copom decided to end the cycle leaving the base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa

  • Mixed bag for activity in Colombia’s 1Q18  

    The new NSA GDP series grew 2.2% year over year in 1Q18, after the 1.8% in 4Q17.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil's Copom: When facts change  

    The external scenario is no longer described as favorable by the Copom but, instead, as more challenging and more volatile.

  • Evening Edition – Mixed bag for activity in Colombia’s 1Q18  

    The new NSA GDP series grew 2.2% year over year in 1Q18, after the 1.8% in 4Q17.

  • Lower growth expected in Brazil  

    The median GDP growth expectations for 2018 declined 19 bps to 2.51%, and remained flat for 2019 and 2020

  • Evening Edition – Lower growth expected in Brazil  

    IPCA inflation expectations declined once again for 2018 to 3.45% (from 3.49%).

  • Brazilian retail sales increased in March, maintaining upward trend  

    Brazil's core retail sales increased 0.3% mom/sa in March, above the median of market expectations (0.2%) and our estimate (0.1%), maintaining upward trend

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The index had risen 0.09% in the previous month and 0.14% in April 2017.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian retail sales rise in March and continue upward trend  

    Compared to March 2017, core sales expanded 6.5%.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The index had risen 0.09% in the previous month and 0.14% in April 2017.

  • Mexico’s inflation decreased substantially in April  

    Mexico's CPI came in below market expectations for the third consecutive month

  • Evening Edition – Mexico’s inflation decreased substantially in April  

    The CPI posted a monthly deflation rate of 0.34% – undershooting our forecast and median market expectations (both -0.31%, as per Bloomberg).

  • In Argentina, Central bank kept reference rate. Treasury goes to the imf  

    Argentina's central bank reaffirmed tight monetary stance and floating exchange regime. Treasury goes to the IMF

  • Evening Edition – ARGENTINA: Central bank kept reference rate. Treasury goes to the imf  

    The announcements are part of the government’s effort to contain market deterioration.

  • Chilean recovery in place  

    The Chilean recovery advanced in the first quarter of 2018

  • Evening Edition – Chilean recovery platform in place  

    The 4.0% growth rate recorded in the quarter (2.5% in 4Q17) is the highest since 3Q13.

  • Argentina: taking the bull by the horns  

    Argentina´s central bank hiked the reference rate (7-day repo) by 675 bps to 40% in a new inter-meeting decision

  • Another 300-bp rate hike in Argentina  

    The decision followed a 300-bp hike last week

  • Evening Edition – Argentina: taking the bull by the horns?  

    This is the third time in a week that the monetary authority decides to tighten monetary conditions to cope with a run on the peso.

  • Evening Edition – Another 300-bp rate hike to tame the peso  

    The decision followed a 300-bp hike last week.

  • Brazilian Central Bank acts to smooth BRL depreciation  

    The Central Bank just announced that it will start today the rollover of FX swap contracts expiring in June 1st

  • Mexico’s GDP growth gains traction in 1Q18  

    In spite of tight macro policies and the uncertainties associated to NAFTA, Mexico’s GDP accelerated in 1Q18

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Central Bank acts to smooth BRL depreciation  

    If this pace is maintained throughout the month the BCB will auction USD 2.8 billion more than the amount expiring in June (USD 5.7 billion).

  • Pressure on reserves triggers 300-bp reference rate hike in Argentina  

    The central bank increased its policy rate (7-day repo) by 300-bps in an inter-meeting decision, to 30.25%

  • Evening Edition – Mexico’s GDP growth gains traction in 1Q18  

    The flash estimate of GDP growth for 1Q18 came in at 1.2% year-over-year, closer to our forecast than to median market expectations.

  • Evening Edition – Pressure on reserves triggers 300-bp reference rate hike in Argentina  

    Considering the rate increase already implemented, we think CPI data will play a less important role over the next few decisions.

  • Further rate hikes unlikely, but no signs of rate cuts in Mexico  

    In fact, the majority of board members see the current policy stance as consistent with the convergence of inflation to the target.

  • Evening Edition – Further rate hikes unlikely, but no signs of rate cuts in Mexico  

    In fact, the majority of board members see the current policy stance as consistent with the convergence of inflation to the target.

  • Brazilian central government registers worse than expected deficit in March  

    The central government posted a BRL 24.8 billion primary deficit in March, worse than market expectations

  • Argentine Central bank left monetary policy rate unchanged  

    The central bank kept the benchmark interest rate (7-day repo rate) unchanged at 27.25% at its second monetary policy meeting in April

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian central government registers worse than expected deficit in March  

    The surprise came from lower revenues, especially from oil royalties, and higher mandatory and discretionary expenditures.


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