Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Persistently high inflation leads to split decision to hike rates in Mexico  

    The central bank is more cautious on the inflation outlook

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s administration unveils second phase of its tax reform proposal  

    Speaker Arthur Lira expressed his intention to propose an urgency motion for the tax reform to speed up the approval process

  • Robust GDP growth in Argentina  

    Looking ahead, we expect a sequential decline in 2Q21, mostly due to the tightening of mobility restrictions in late May

  • Evening Edition – Persistently high inflation leads to split decision to hike rates in Mexico  

    The central bank is more cautious on the inflation outlook

  • Copom minutes pave the way for faster tightening ahead  

    We have changed our call to a 100-bp hike in the August meeting, and to a 6.5% Selic rate at the end of the tightening cycle

  • Evening Edition – Robust GDP growth in Argentina  

    Looking ahead, we expect a sequential decline in 2Q21, mostly due to the tightening of mobility restrictions in late May

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes pave the way for faster tightening ahead  

    We have changed our call to a 100-bp hike in the August meeting, and to a 6.5% Selic rate at the end of the tightening cycle

  • Brazilian Congress approves privatization of Eletrobras  

    The next step will be the presentation by the BNDES of the details related to the capitalization structure, likely to occur in the 4Q21

  • Activity continues to recover in Colombia despite mobility restrictions and protest actions  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.5% this year (6.8% decline in 2020)

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Congress approves privatization of Eletrobras  

    The next step will be the presentation by the BNDES of the details related to the capitalization structure, likely to occur in the 4Q21

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate approves privatization of Eletrobras  

    As the Senate made some changes to the text, the bill will be sent back to the Lower House for a final vote

  • Copom delivers a 75bp hike and scraps mention of partial adjustment  

    The Copom signaled another 75-bp hike in August, but indicated that the tightening pace may increase if expectations continue to go up

  • Sequential activity declines in Colombia  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.5% this year (6.8% decline in 2020)

  • Evening Edition – Large annual activity increase in Colombia, despite sequential fall  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.5% this year (6.8% decline in 2020)

  • Economic activity index below expectations in Brazil  

    Our 2Q21 GDP estimate remains at +0.2% qoq/sa. We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2021

  • Services sector revenue above market expectations in Brazil  

    Our 2Q21 GDP forecast remains at +0.2% qoq/sa. We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2021

  • Evening Edition – Focus survey with further increases in 2021 GDP growth and inflation expectations  

    The median of GDP growth expectations increased 49 bps for 2021 to 4.85%

  • Stable rates in Peru, but with a more hawkish stance  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% amid limited underlying inflationary pressures and a still negative output gap

  • Evening Edition – Services sector revenue above market expectations in Brazil  

    Our 2Q21 GDP forecast remains at +0.2% qoq/sa. We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2021.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil scenario update: higher GDP growth, inflation and Selic rate, stronger BRL  

    As the vaccination process advances, we see a more benign scenario than before in 2021

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in June is at 0.55%

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Stronger-than-expected IPCA in May, and underlying inflation remains under pressure

  • Liftoff near in Chile  

    Risks are in favor of several rate hikes before the close of the year

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    The start of the normalization cycle is likely in coming months

  • Presidential election still undefined in Peru  

    Preliminary results of Peru’s presidential runoff still do not show a clear winner

  • Inflation slightly below market expectations in Uruguay  

    We forecast inflation at 7.0% by year-end 2021 (from 9.4% in 2020)

  • Stronger-than-expected GDP in Brazil  

    GDP rebounds to pre-pandemic level

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected GDP in Brazil  

    GDP rebounds to pre-pandemic level

  • Primary result surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Medium-term challenges remain, though

  • Business confidence rebounds in Brazil  

    All confidence indicators have shown positive results in May

  • Evening Edition – Primary result surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Medium-term challenges remain, though

  • Evening Edition – Households drive April’s credit growth in Brazil  

    Seasonally adjusted overall delinquency remained virtually stable at 2.1%.

  • GDP continues to recover in Mexico  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021, supported mainly by external demand (U.S. strong growth)

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Lower than expected IPCA-15 due to airfares. Underlying inflation remains under pressure.

  • Evening Edition – GDP continues to recover in Mexico  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021, supported mainly by external demand (U.S. strong growth)

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Lower than expected IPCA-15 due to airfares. Underlying inflation remains under pressure.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    The reopening of the economy is exerting upside pressure in core services inflation

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    Going forward, the prevailing uncertainties over domestic policy direction are likely to curb the recovery

  • Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Argentina  

    Given an upward revision in the previous months, the EMAE expanded by 2.3% qoq/sa (non-annualized) in March, from 4.5% qoq/sa in 4Q20.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    Going forward, the prevailing uncertainties over domestic policy direction are likely to curb the recovery.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Argentina  

    Given an upward revision in the previous months, the EMAE expanded by 2.3% qoq/sa (non-annualized) in March, from 4.5% qoq/sa in 4Q20.

  • S&P downgrades Colombia to junk  

    The rating agency S&P downgraded Colombia’s sovereign debt rating to ‘BB+’, with a stable outlook.

  • Evening Edition – GDP continues to recover in Chile  

    Going forward, we see GDP expanding 6.5% in 2021, following the 5.8% decline last year, but risks tilt to the upside

  • GDP continues to recover in Chile  

    Going forward, we see GDP expanding 6.5% in 2021, following the 5.8% decline last year, but risks tilt to the upside

  • Evening Edition – Strong trade surplus in Argentina, despite rising imports  

    Restrictions on meat exports are a downside risk to our trade surplus forecast

  • Monthly GDP recedes slightly in Peru  

    On an annual basis, the monthly GDP in March was boosted by a favorable base effect

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP decreases slightly in Peru  

    On an annual basis, the monthly GDP in March was boosted by a favorable base effect

  • Poor showing of the ruling coalition in Chile’s elections  

    The left-wing political forces were the grand winner of last weekend’s constitutional convention, regional, and municipal elections

  • Evening Edition – Robust 1Q21 GDP growth in Colombia  

    The Colombian economy is set to recover this year, favored by stimuli measures, higher terms of trade, and a strong start of the year

  • Stable rates in Chile, but with a hawkish stance  

    We see the policy rate ending 2021 at 0.75%, but the odds that the central bank hikes by more are increasing

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico and Chile  

    We see the policy rate ending 2021 at 0.75%, but the odds that the central bank hikes by more are increasing

  • Service sector data reinforce a milder economic impact of the second COVID-19 wave in Brazil  

    We increased our 1Q21 GDP estimate to +0.6% from +0.5% qoq/sa

  • Evening Edition – Service sector data reinforce a milder economic impact of the second wave in Brazi  

    We increased our 1Q21 GDP estimate to +0.6% from +0.5% qoq/sa

  • Evening Edition – Inflation broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Slightly-better-than-expected underlying inflation in April, with highlights to services prices.

  • Fiscal deficit continues to narrow in Paraguay  

    The fiscal deficit continued to fall in April helped by a favorable base effect

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit continues to narrow in Paraguay  

    The fiscal deficit continued to fall in April helped by a favorable base effect.

  • Retail sales fell significantly less than expected in Brazil  

    Our forecast for 1Q21 GDP remains at +0.4% qoq/sa

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales fell significantly less than expected in Brazil  

    Our forecast for 1Q21 GDP remains at +0.4% qoq/sa

  • Activity indicators post mixed results in Argentina  

    The manufacturing index (IPI) rose by 0.7% mom/sa in March, after falling 1.5% in February, and is now 3.9% above pre-pandemic levels

  • Copom delivers another rate hike, with a mixed message  

    Copom raises Selic by 75 bps and signals a new hike of equal magnitude in June, but still foresees partial normalization

  • Evening Edition – Activity indicators post mixed results in Argentina  

    The manufacturing index (IPI) rose by 0.7% mom/sa in March, after falling 1.5% in February, and is now 3.9% above pre-pandemic levels

  • Evening Edition – Copom delivers another rate hike, with a mixed message  

    Copom raises Selic by 75 bps and signals a new hike of equal magnitude in June, but still foresees partial normalization.

  • Colombian inflation report reaffirms stable rates scenario  

    The central bank noted that fiscal consolidation is key to maintain risk premia under control and guarantee capital inflows

  • Colombia's Finance Minister resigns after tax reform is pulled from Congress  

    President Duque has appointed José Manuel Restrepo as Carrasquilla’s replacement

  • Evening Edition – Colombian inflation report reaffirms stable rates scenario  

    The central bank noted that fiscal consolidation is key to maintain risk premia under control and guarantee capital inflows

  • Evening Edition – Colombian finance minister resigns as tax reform pulled from Congress  

    President Duque has appointed José Manuel Restrepo as Carrasquilla’s replacement

  • Tax reform withdrawn from Congress in Colombia  

    President Iván Duque asked the minister of finance to withdraw from Congress the structural tax reform

  • Evening Edition – Steady rates at historical low in Colombia  

    Despite a bullish activity outlook, appeal for further easing is waning

  • Formal jobs continue to recover in Brazil  

    According to the released figures, total formal employment is now higher than pre-Covid

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected central government result in Brazil  

    The consolidated primary result (which includes regional governments and state-owned companies) will be released tomorrow

  • Lower-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    April IPCA-15 below expectations. Underlying inflation a bit better than expected, with highlight for services

  • Evening Edition – Formal jobs continue to recover in Brazil  

    According to the released figures, total formal employment is now higher than pre-Covid

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    April IPCA-15 below expectations. Underlying inflation a bit better than expected, with highlight for services.

  • Larger-than-expected current account deficit in Brazil  

    The trade balance has been weaker at the margin, but this situation is set to be temporary

  • Evening Edition – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in Brazil  

    The trade balance has been weaker at the margin, but this situation is set to be temporary

  • Chile’s Senate votes in favor of the pension withdrawal bill  

    The initiative received support from 31 legislators, surpassing the 26 vote threshold (3/5).

  • Evening Edition – Chile’s Congress approves pension withdrawal bill  

    In today’s final vote in the Lower House, 119 Representatives (of 92 needed) supported the latest version of the bill

  • Evening Edition – Senate votes in favor of the pension withdrawal bill in Chile  

    The initiative received support from 31 legislators, surpassing the 26 vote threshold (3/5).

  • President Bolsonaro to sanction the 2021 budget today  

    Today is the deadline for president Bolsonaro to sanction the 2021 budget

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian budget imbroglio seems close to an end  

    The administration and Congress reached an agreement regarding the 2021 budget

  • Evening Edition – Still-wide trade deficit in Colombia  

    Recovering domestic demand is restraining the pace of the trade correction

  • Confidence indicators show mixed results in Colombia  

    Retail confidence continued to surge, while industrial sentiment moderated somewhat

  • Third pension withdrawal plan advances in Chile’s Congress  

    The initiative received support from 120 legislators, surpassing the 90 vote threshold (3/5).

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators with mixed results in Colombia  

    Retail confidence continued to surge, while industrial sentiment moderated somewhat

  • Fiscal deficit narrowing in Paraguay  

    We forecast a fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP, down from 6.2% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Colombian government presents tax reform to Congress  

    The approval of a structural tax reform is a key prerequisite for credit rating agencies to maintain Colombia’s investment grade rating

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit narrowing in Paraguay  

    We forecast a fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP, down from 6.2% in 2020

  • Presidential election in Peru heads to runoff  

    Results for the second round are highly uncertain

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Retail sales will probably decline strongly in March

  • Evening Edition – Elections in Peru seem headed to a runoff  

    Results for the runoff are highly uncertain

  • Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    IPCA rises 0.93% in March pressured by vehicle fuels

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • Milder-than-expected trade surplus in Chile  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • Exports rebound in Colombia  

    The full trade balance result will be released on April 19

  • Evening Edition – Milder-than-expected trade surplus in Chile  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • Evening Edition – Exports recovered in Colombia  

    Overall, we expect a broadly stable current account deficit this year at a wide 3.4% of GDP

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    We expect inflation to rebound to 2.8% this year from 1.61% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Uruguay  

    We forecast inflation at 7.0% this year, down from 9.4% in 2020

  • Inflation figures to be released in Colombia today  

    We expect a 0.54% MoM variation (similar to last year), driven by fuels, rentals and food prices

  • Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Employment continues to recover, led by informal jobs.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Industrial production fell 0.7% mom/sa in February, disappointing both market expectations (+0.5%) and our call (+0.2%).

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Employment continues to recover, led by informal jobs.

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    As widely expected, the central bank of Chile left the policy rate unchanged at its March meeting, at the technical minimum of 0.5%.

  • Ministerial changes in the spotlight in Brazil  

    The administration announced yesterday several ministerial changes.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    The central bank is downplaying market expectations of rate hikes later this year.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • Evening Edition – Ministerial changes in the spotlight in Brazil  

    The administration announced several ministerial changes

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to keep unchanged its policy rate at 4.00% this year

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to keep unchanged its policy rate at 4.00% this year

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure

  • Argentina’s GDP recovers in 4Q20, amid easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021

  • Evening Edition – Argentina’s GDP recovers in 4Q20, amid easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021

  • Chile’s government boosts social spending to mitigate the effects of the pandemic  

    The government announced additional support measures worth USD 6.2 billion (2% of GDP)

  • Aggregate demand in line with expectations in Mexico  

    We expect GDP to grow 6.0% in 2021, supported by external demand (a solid recovery in the U.S. economy)

  • Evening Edition – Primary deficit narrowed in Argentina  

    Tax collection increased in real terms in the quarter ended in February, led by higher export taxes

  • Evening Edition – Aggregate demand in line with expectations in Mexico  

    External demand is the main driver of the recovery

  • Stronger-than-expected GDP recovery in Chile  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected GDP recovery in Chile  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead

  • Brazil’s Central Bank hikes basic rate by 75bps  

    The Copom decided to hike the Selic rate by 75bps and signaled the intention to repeat the current pace in the next policy meeting

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted CAGED formal job creation reached 227k, down from +331k in the previous month.

  • Evening Edition – Copom starts normalization cycle with stronger-than-expected hike  

    The Copom decided to hike the Selic rate by 75bps and signaled the intention to repeat the current pace in the next policy meeting

  • Activity indicators decline in Colombia  

    We expect the Colombian economy to rebound this year, with growth of 5.0% (-6.8% in 2020).

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted CAGED formal job creation reached 227k, down from +331k in the previous month

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    We forecast positive GDP growth in 1Q21, despite already accounting for a strong drop of services consumption in March due to social isolation

  • Evening Edition – Activity indicators decline in Colombia  

    We expect the Colombian economy to rebound this year, with growth of 5.0% (-6.8% in 2020).

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    We forecast positive GDP growth in 1Q21

  • Brazil’s Lower House approves the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The bill will now head to promulgation

  • Brazil´s Lower House on track to approve the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The second-round is scheduled to be voted today

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Lower House close to final approval on the Emergency constitutional amend  

    The base text has already been successfully voted, and now the House is discussing proposed amendments to it

  • Brazil’s Lower House may conclude the vote on the Emergency constitutional amendment today  

    The voting on the amendments to the bill and the second-round vote will likely be held today

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s Lower House to approve the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    Once concluded the voting on the amendments, the Lower House will then proceed to the second-round vote

  • Brazil’s Supreme Court overturns former-President Lula’s convictions  

    If the decision is upheld, former-President Lula would be allowed to run for the presidential election of 2022

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenue in line with expectations in Brazil  

    We estimate positive GDP growth in 1Q21 even taking into account a strong decline of the service sector in March

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Supreme Court annuls former-President Lula’s convictions  

    If the decision is upheld, former-President Lula would be allowed to run for the presidential election of 2022

  • Industrial production continues to rise in Brazil  

    We forecast positive GDP growth in 1Q21

  • Brazil´s Senate approves the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The bill will now head to the lower house, where it needs 3/5 of the house votes for approval

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production continues to increase in Brazil  

    Rising production of capital goods

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate approves Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The proposal will now head to the Lower House to a two-round vote process, likely starting next week, according to the news

  • Brazilian GDP drops 4.1% in 2020, in line with our estimate  

    Significant recovery in 2H20

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP drops 4.1% in 2020, in line with our estimate  

    Significant recovery in 2H20

  • Brazilian Senate may vote the Emergency constitutional amendment today  

    The rapporteur for the bill, Senator Marcio Bittar, will maintain the enactment of the spending cap triggers in the proposal

  • Brazilian government reduces taxes on diesel and cooking gas  

    The administration issued a decree reducing to zero the PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel fuel (for two months) and cooking gas (permanently)

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate may vote the Emergency constitutional amendment tomorrow  

    The rapporteur for the bill, Senator Marcio Bittar, will maintain the enactment of the spending cap triggers in the proposal

  • Unemployment rate in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The ongoing recovery in the participation rate, however, will prevent unemployment rate from dropping significantly during 2021

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Peru  

    We expect inflation for yearend 2021 at 2.5% pressured mainly by higher food and energy prices

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The ongoing recovery in the participation rate, however, will prevent unemployment rate from dropping significantly during 2021

  • We now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut in Mexico  

    We now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut (March), compared with two rate cuts of the same magnitude in our previous scenario

  • Inflation rises further in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February is 0.67%

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes show a cautious board  

    We now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut (March)

  • Rapporteur unveils proposal for aid and fiscal triggers in Brazil  

    The bill limits the legal framework for extra-cap expenditures to the emergency aid and regulates the automatic adjustment mechanisms

  • Evening Edition – Annual inflation rises further in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February is 0.67%

  • Evening Edition – Argentina posts primary surplus in January  

    We forecast a reduction in the primary fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year

  • Stable rates in Paraguay  

    The COPOM kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Paraguay  

    The COPOM kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected.

  • Bolsonaro appoints new CEO for Petrobras  

    According to president Bolsonaro, more changes will come during the week, which will be a major focal point for the markets in coming days.

  • Petrobras increases fuel prices in Brazil  

    The decision impacted our short-term forecasts for IPCA inflation

  • Evening Edition – Peru’s economic activity collapsed in 2020  

    We still expect GDP growth to recover to 10.7% in 2021 supported by a positive carry-over effect

  • Evening Edition – Petrobras increases fuel prices in Brazil  

    The decision impacted our short-term forecasts for IPCA inflation

  • Higher interest rate expectations in Brazil  

    The median of year-end Selic rate expectations increased 25 bps in 2021 (to 3.75%)

  • Evening Edition – Higher interest rate expectations in Brazil  

    The median of year-end Selic rate expectations increased 25 bps in 2021 (to 3.75%)

  • Evening Edition – Mixed activity indicators in Colombia  

    We expect the Colombian economy to rebound this year, with growth of 5.0%.

  • Banxico cuts rate by 25 bps  

    We expect Banxico to continue easing its policy rate (we expect 25-bps rate cuts in each of the next two policy meetings)

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    For 2020 as a whole, our GDP estimate remains at -4.1%

  • Evening Edition – Banxico cuts rate by 25 bps  

    We expect Banxico to continue easing its policy rate (we expect 25-bps rate cuts in each of the next two policy meetings)

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    The deeply negative reading in core retail sales is caused by the non-linearity of the seasonally adjusted series.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.25% in January, printing below our call (0.29%) and market expectations (0.31%).

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.25% in January, printing below our call (0.29%) and market expectations (0.31%).

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Consumer prices rose 0.7% in January from December (0.6% last year).

  • Weaker-than-expected gross fixed investment in Mexico  

    The monthly gross fixed investment (GFI) fell by 12.1% yoy in November.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Consumer prices surprised to the upside in January, rising 0.7% from December (0.6% last year), above the market consensus and our call.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected gross fixed investment in Mexico  

    The re-tightening of social distancing measures at the beginning of the year is expected to have a negative impact in internal demand

  • Activity indicators rebound in Argentina  

    Manufacturing and construction activity rebounded in 4Q20, surpassing pre-pandemic levels

  • Evening Edition – Activity indicators rebound in Argentina  

    Manufacturing and construction activity rebounded in 4Q20, surpassing pre-pandemic levels

  • New congressional speakers unveil priority measures in Brazil  

    Among the measures, they highlighted fiscal reforms, as well as tax and administrative reforms

  • Evening Edition – New congressional speakers unveil priority measures in Brazil  

    Among the measures, they emphasized fiscal reforms, and tax and administrative reforms

  • Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our estimate for GDP growth in 4Q20 is 3.0% qoq/sa. We continue to forecast a 4.1% decline for 2020 as a whole

  • Administration-backed candidates win speakership elections in Brazil  

    As widely expected, the results confirmed the victories of the administration-backed favorites in both institutions

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our estimate for GDP growth in 4Q20 is 3.0% qoq/sa. We continue to forecast a 4.1% decline for 2020 as a whole

  • Evening Edition – Administration-backed candidates win speakership elections in Brazil  

    As widely expected, the results confirmed the victories of the administration-backed favorites in both institutions

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    In spite of the split vote, there is consensus within the board that the monetary policy stance must remain expansionary

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    In spite of the split vote, there is consensus within the board that the monetary policy stance must remain expansionary

  • Formal job creation stronger than expectations in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted, formal job creation reached 353k (there is a negative seasonality in December), from 390k in November

  • Evening Edition – CAGED Formal job creation stronger than expectations in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted, formal job creation reached 353k (there is a negative seasonality in December), from 390k in November

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    Unanimous support to continue to signal low-for-long rates

  • Retail confidence declines in Brazil  

    All confidence indicators released so far show a decline in January.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    Unanimous support to continue to signal low-for-long rates

  • Monthly GDP surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    For 2021, we expect a GDP of 5.0%, supported mainly by the external demand (U.S. economic activity).

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes signal Selic rate lift-off  

    We now expect a 25-bp hike in March, followed by two 50-bp moves, with a final 25-bp hike that would take the base rate to 3.5%

  • Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    In spite of this decline at the margin, industrial confidence remains very strong, and significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Mexico   

    Higher energy prices and persistent core inflation were the main drivers

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal balance deteriorates in Argentina  

    The size of the fiscal consolidation for this year is likely to be discussed with the IMF

  • Copom scraps its forward guidance  

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, and, as expected, scrapped the forward guidance that precluded short-term rate hikes

  • Evening Edition – Copom scraps its forward guidance   

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, and, as expected, scrapped the forward guidance that precluded short-term rate hikes

  • Copom’s decision to take center stage today  

    We believe that the committee will withdraw its forward guidance, but it will keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a.

  • Vaccination kicks off in Brazil  

    There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use

  • Evening Edition – Copom’s decision to take center stage tomorrow  

    We believe that the committee will withdraw its forward guidance, but it will keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a.

  • Evening Edition – Vaccination kicks off is Brazil  

    There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use


      < Back