Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Evening Edition – Brazilian budget imbroglio seems close to an end  

    The administration and Congress reached an agreement regarding the 2021 budget

  • Evening Edition – Still-wide trade deficit in Colombia  

    Recovering domestic demand is restraining the pace of the trade correction

  • Confidence indicators show mixed results in Colombia  

    Retail confidence continued to surge, while industrial sentiment moderated somewhat

  • Third pension withdrawal plan advances in Chile’s Congress  

    The initiative received support from 120 legislators, surpassing the 90 vote threshold (3/5).

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators with mixed results in Colombia  

    Retail confidence continued to surge, while industrial sentiment moderated somewhat

  • Fiscal deficit narrowing in Paraguay  

    We forecast a fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP, down from 6.2% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Colombian government presents tax reform to Congress  

    The approval of a structural tax reform is a key prerequisite for credit rating agencies to maintain Colombia’s investment grade rating

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit narrowing in Paraguay  

    We forecast a fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP, down from 6.2% in 2020

  • Presidential election in Peru heads to runoff  

    Results for the second round are highly uncertain

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Retail sales will probably decline strongly in March

  • Evening Edition – Elections in Peru seem headed to a runoff  

    Results for the runoff are highly uncertain

  • Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    IPCA rises 0.93% in March pressured by vehicle fuels

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • Milder-than-expected trade surplus in Chile  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • Exports rebound in Colombia  

    The full trade balance result will be released on April 19

  • Evening Edition – Milder-than-expected trade surplus in Chile  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • Evening Edition – Exports recovered in Colombia  

    Overall, we expect a broadly stable current account deficit this year at a wide 3.4% of GDP

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    We expect inflation to rebound to 2.8% this year from 1.61% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Uruguay  

    We forecast inflation at 7.0% this year, down from 9.4% in 2020

  • Inflation figures to be released in Colombia today  

    We expect a 0.54% MoM variation (similar to last year), driven by fuels, rentals and food prices

  • Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Employment continues to recover, led by informal jobs.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Industrial production fell 0.7% mom/sa in February, disappointing both market expectations (+0.5%) and our call (+0.2%).

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Employment continues to recover, led by informal jobs.

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    As widely expected, the central bank of Chile left the policy rate unchanged at its March meeting, at the technical minimum of 0.5%.

  • Ministerial changes in the spotlight in Brazil  

    The administration announced yesterday several ministerial changes.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    The central bank is downplaying market expectations of rate hikes later this year.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • Evening Edition – Ministerial changes in the spotlight in Brazil  

    The administration announced several ministerial changes

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to keep unchanged its policy rate at 4.00% this year

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to keep unchanged its policy rate at 4.00% this year

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure

  • Argentina’s GDP recovers in 4Q20, amid easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021

  • Evening Edition – Argentina’s GDP recovers in 4Q20, amid easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021

  • Chile’s government boosts social spending to mitigate the effects of the pandemic  

    The government announced additional support measures worth USD 6.2 billion (2% of GDP)

  • Aggregate demand in line with expectations in Mexico  

    We expect GDP to grow 6.0% in 2021, supported by external demand (a solid recovery in the U.S. economy)

  • Evening Edition – Primary deficit narrowed in Argentina  

    Tax collection increased in real terms in the quarter ended in February, led by higher export taxes

  • Evening Edition – Aggregate demand in line with expectations in Mexico  

    External demand is the main driver of the recovery

  • Stronger-than-expected GDP recovery in Chile  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected GDP recovery in Chile  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead

  • Brazil’s Central Bank hikes basic rate by 75bps  

    The Copom decided to hike the Selic rate by 75bps and signaled the intention to repeat the current pace in the next policy meeting

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted CAGED formal job creation reached 227k, down from +331k in the previous month.

  • Evening Edition – Copom starts normalization cycle with stronger-than-expected hike  

    The Copom decided to hike the Selic rate by 75bps and signaled the intention to repeat the current pace in the next policy meeting

  • Activity indicators decline in Colombia  

    We expect the Colombian economy to rebound this year, with growth of 5.0% (-6.8% in 2020).

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted CAGED formal job creation reached 227k, down from +331k in the previous month

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    We forecast positive GDP growth in 1Q21, despite already accounting for a strong drop of services consumption in March due to social isolation

  • Evening Edition – Activity indicators decline in Colombia  

    We expect the Colombian economy to rebound this year, with growth of 5.0% (-6.8% in 2020).

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    We forecast positive GDP growth in 1Q21

  • Brazil’s Lower House approves the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The bill will now head to promulgation

  • Brazil´s Lower House on track to approve the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The second-round is scheduled to be voted today

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Lower House close to final approval on the Emergency constitutional amend  

    The base text has already been successfully voted, and now the House is discussing proposed amendments to it

  • Brazil’s Lower House may conclude the vote on the Emergency constitutional amendment today  

    The voting on the amendments to the bill and the second-round vote will likely be held today

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s Lower House to approve the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    Once concluded the voting on the amendments, the Lower House will then proceed to the second-round vote

  • Brazil’s Supreme Court overturns former-President Lula’s convictions  

    If the decision is upheld, former-President Lula would be allowed to run for the presidential election of 2022

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenue in line with expectations in Brazil  

    We estimate positive GDP growth in 1Q21 even taking into account a strong decline of the service sector in March

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Supreme Court annuls former-President Lula’s convictions  

    If the decision is upheld, former-President Lula would be allowed to run for the presidential election of 2022

  • Industrial production continues to rise in Brazil  

    We forecast positive GDP growth in 1Q21

  • Brazil´s Senate approves the Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The bill will now head to the lower house, where it needs 3/5 of the house votes for approval

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production continues to increase in Brazil  

    Rising production of capital goods

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate approves Emergency constitutional amendment  

    The proposal will now head to the Lower House to a two-round vote process, likely starting next week, according to the news

  • Brazilian GDP drops 4.1% in 2020, in line with our estimate  

    Significant recovery in 2H20

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP drops 4.1% in 2020, in line with our estimate  

    Significant recovery in 2H20

  • Brazilian Senate may vote the Emergency constitutional amendment today  

    The rapporteur for the bill, Senator Marcio Bittar, will maintain the enactment of the spending cap triggers in the proposal

  • Brazilian government reduces taxes on diesel and cooking gas  

    The administration issued a decree reducing to zero the PIS/Cofins taxes on diesel fuel (for two months) and cooking gas (permanently)

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate may vote the Emergency constitutional amendment tomorrow  

    The rapporteur for the bill, Senator Marcio Bittar, will maintain the enactment of the spending cap triggers in the proposal

  • Unemployment rate in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The ongoing recovery in the participation rate, however, will prevent unemployment rate from dropping significantly during 2021

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Peru  

    We expect inflation for yearend 2021 at 2.5% pressured mainly by higher food and energy prices

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The ongoing recovery in the participation rate, however, will prevent unemployment rate from dropping significantly during 2021

  • We now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut in Mexico  

    We now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut (March), compared with two rate cuts of the same magnitude in our previous scenario

  • Inflation rises further in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February is 0.67%

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes show a cautious board  

    We now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut (March)

  • Rapporteur unveils proposal for aid and fiscal triggers in Brazil  

    The bill limits the legal framework for extra-cap expenditures to the emergency aid and regulates the automatic adjustment mechanisms

  • Evening Edition – Annual inflation rises further in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in February is 0.67%

  • Evening Edition – Argentina posts primary surplus in January  

    We forecast a reduction in the primary fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year

  • Stable rates in Paraguay  

    The COPOM kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Paraguay  

    The COPOM kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected.

  • Bolsonaro appoints new CEO for Petrobras  

    According to president Bolsonaro, more changes will come during the week, which will be a major focal point for the markets in coming days.

  • Petrobras increases fuel prices in Brazil  

    The decision impacted our short-term forecasts for IPCA inflation

  • Evening Edition – Peru’s economic activity collapsed in 2020  

    We still expect GDP growth to recover to 10.7% in 2021 supported by a positive carry-over effect

  • Evening Edition – Petrobras increases fuel prices in Brazil  

    The decision impacted our short-term forecasts for IPCA inflation

  • Higher interest rate expectations in Brazil  

    The median of year-end Selic rate expectations increased 25 bps in 2021 (to 3.75%)

  • Evening Edition – Higher interest rate expectations in Brazil  

    The median of year-end Selic rate expectations increased 25 bps in 2021 (to 3.75%)

  • Evening Edition – Mixed activity indicators in Colombia  

    We expect the Colombian economy to rebound this year, with growth of 5.0%.

  • Banxico cuts rate by 25 bps  

    We expect Banxico to continue easing its policy rate (we expect 25-bps rate cuts in each of the next two policy meetings)

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    For 2020 as a whole, our GDP estimate remains at -4.1%

  • Evening Edition – Banxico cuts rate by 25 bps  

    We expect Banxico to continue easing its policy rate (we expect 25-bps rate cuts in each of the next two policy meetings)

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    The deeply negative reading in core retail sales is caused by the non-linearity of the seasonally adjusted series.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.25% in January, printing below our call (0.29%) and market expectations (0.31%).

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.25% in January, printing below our call (0.29%) and market expectations (0.31%).

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Consumer prices rose 0.7% in January from December (0.6% last year).

  • Weaker-than-expected gross fixed investment in Mexico  

    The monthly gross fixed investment (GFI) fell by 12.1% yoy in November.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Consumer prices surprised to the upside in January, rising 0.7% from December (0.6% last year), above the market consensus and our call.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected gross fixed investment in Mexico  

    The re-tightening of social distancing measures at the beginning of the year is expected to have a negative impact in internal demand

  • Activity indicators rebound in Argentina  

    Manufacturing and construction activity rebounded in 4Q20, surpassing pre-pandemic levels

  • Evening Edition – Activity indicators rebound in Argentina  

    Manufacturing and construction activity rebounded in 4Q20, surpassing pre-pandemic levels

  • New congressional speakers unveil priority measures in Brazil  

    Among the measures, they highlighted fiscal reforms, as well as tax and administrative reforms

  • Evening Edition – New congressional speakers unveil priority measures in Brazil  

    Among the measures, they emphasized fiscal reforms, and tax and administrative reforms

  • Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our estimate for GDP growth in 4Q20 is 3.0% qoq/sa. We continue to forecast a 4.1% decline for 2020 as a whole

  • Administration-backed candidates win speakership elections in Brazil  

    As widely expected, the results confirmed the victories of the administration-backed favorites in both institutions

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our estimate for GDP growth in 4Q20 is 3.0% qoq/sa. We continue to forecast a 4.1% decline for 2020 as a whole

  • Evening Edition – Administration-backed candidates win speakership elections in Brazil  

    As widely expected, the results confirmed the victories of the administration-backed favorites in both institutions

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    In spite of the split vote, there is consensus within the board that the monetary policy stance must remain expansionary

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    In spite of the split vote, there is consensus within the board that the monetary policy stance must remain expansionary

  • Formal job creation stronger than expectations in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted, formal job creation reached 353k (there is a negative seasonality in December), from 390k in November

  • Evening Edition – CAGED Formal job creation stronger than expectations in Brazil  

    Seasonally-adjusted, formal job creation reached 353k (there is a negative seasonality in December), from 390k in November

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    Unanimous support to continue to signal low-for-long rates

  • Retail confidence declines in Brazil  

    All confidence indicators released so far show a decline in January.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    Unanimous support to continue to signal low-for-long rates

  • Monthly GDP surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    For 2021, we expect a GDP of 5.0%, supported mainly by the external demand (U.S. economic activity).

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes signal Selic rate lift-off  

    We now expect a 25-bp hike in March, followed by two 50-bp moves, with a final 25-bp hike that would take the base rate to 3.5%

  • Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    In spite of this decline at the margin, industrial confidence remains very strong, and significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Mexico   

    Higher energy prices and persistent core inflation were the main drivers

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal balance deteriorates in Argentina  

    The size of the fiscal consolidation for this year is likely to be discussed with the IMF

  • Copom scraps its forward guidance  

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, and, as expected, scrapped the forward guidance that precluded short-term rate hikes

  • Evening Edition – Copom scraps its forward guidance   

    The Copom left the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, and, as expected, scrapped the forward guidance that precluded short-term rate hikes

  • Copom’s decision to take center stage today  

    We believe that the committee will withdraw its forward guidance, but it will keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a.

  • Vaccination kicks off in Brazil  

    There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use

  • Evening Edition – Copom’s decision to take center stage tomorrow  

    We believe that the committee will withdraw its forward guidance, but it will keep the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.00% p.a.

  • Evening Edition – Vaccination kicks off is Brazil  

    There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use

  • Vaccination campaign on track to start in Brazil  

    There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use.

  • Evening Edition – Core retail sales decline slightly in Brazil  

    We expect retail sales to decline in December, but preliminary data indicate some improvement in January

  • Stable rates in Peru  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout the year amid a still wide negative output gap

  • Service sector continues to recover in Brazil  

    We updated our 4Q20 GDP forecast to +3.0% (from +2.9%) qoq/sa, and continue to forecast a 4.1% drop in 2020 as a whole

  • Evening Edition – Higher inflation in Argentina  

    Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.

  • Evening Edition – Service sector continues to recover in Brazil  

    We updated our 4Q20 GDP forecast to +3.0% (from +2.9%) qoq/sa, and continue to forecast a 4.1% drop in 2020 as a whole

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect prices to increase 0.24% in January, 0.41% in February and 0.24% in March

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation rate in Brazil  

    We expect prices to increase 0.24% in January, 0.41% in February and 0.24% in March

  • Industrial production continues to recover in Mexico  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Mexico  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • Industrial production continues to advance in Brazil  

    Industrial production enjoys a strong recovery process

  • Efficacy results of the CoronaVac vaccine are released in Brazil  

    According to Butantan, none of the volunteers that received the CoronaVac vaccine suffered major complications when infected with the virus

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production continues to recover in Brazil  

    Industrial production enjoys a strong recovery process

  • Evening Edition – Efficacy results of the Coronavac vaccine are released in Brazil  

    According to Butantan, none of the volunteers that received the CoronaVac suffered major complications when infected by the virus

  • Efficacy results of CoronaVac may be disclosed today in Brazil  

    The efficacy results of the CoronaVac vaccine may be disclosed today

  • Evening Edition – Coronavac efficacy results may be disclosed tomorrow in Brazil  

    The efficacy results of the Coronavac vaccine may be disclosed tomorrow

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    For 2021 higher inflation is likely (Itaú 3.0%)

  • Better-than-expected trade deficit in Brazil  

    Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Uruguay  

    A moderate correction is expected if inflation expectations continue to fall

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected trade deficit in Brazil   

    Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic

  • Activity indicators show mixed results in Chile  

    We expect the monthly GDP proxy to have expanded 1% YoY in the month (-1.2% in October)

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected fiscal results in Brazil  

    Fiscal results better at the margin

  • Unemployment rate below expectations in Brazil  

    According to our estimate, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate receded to 14.4%, from 14.7% in the previous month

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate below expectations in Brazil  

    According to our estimate, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate receded to 14.4%, from 14.7% in the previous month

  • Services confidence improves in Brazil  

    Overall, confidence indicators showed mixed results in December

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence continues to advance in Brazil  

    Industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)

  • Industrial confidence continues to advance in Brazil  

    Industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)

  • Mixed results in confidence indicators in Brazil  

    Construction confidence increased slightly in December, while retail confidence dropped further.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expect formal job creation in Brazil  

    The indicator reached 414k jobs in November, stronger than market expectations (269k) and our call (260k).

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    The IPCA-15 climbed 1.06% in December, printing below our estimate and market expectations (both at 1.17%).

  • Consumer confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The index registered the third consecutive drop.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    Retail sales fell by 7.1% yoy, worse than our forecast of -4.6% and market expectations of -5.1%.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    The central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected.

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle in the next policy decision

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    A split board and the change in guard mean a deeper easing cycle cannot be ruled out.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to resume cutting the policy rate as soon as 1Q21

  • GDP rebounds in Argentina with easier isolation rules  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Evening Edition – GDP rebounds in Argentina with easier isolation rules  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Argentina  

    Headline inflation posted a lower-than-expected increase in November, following the October spike.

  • Evening Edition – Copom signals forward guidance will be maintained in early 2021  

    Minutes clarify conditions to discard forward guidance. Given our inflation forecast, we expect this to happen only in the fall (S. Hem.)

  • Activity recovery continues in Colombia  

    We expect growth of 5% next year, bouncing back from a 7% decline forecast for 2020

  • Better-than-expected service sector data in Brazil  

    At the margin, revenue increased 1.7% mom/sa

  • Evening Edition – Activity recovery continues in Colombia  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly was released today, featuring scenarios for Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and the global economy

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected service sector data in Brazil  

    At the margin, revenue increased 1.7% mom/sa

  • Retail sales continue to increase in Brazil  

    We expect significant GDP growth in 4Q20 (our current forecast: +2.9% qoq/sa)

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales continue to increase in Brazil  

    We expect significant GDP growth in 4Q20 (our current forecast: +2.9% qoq/sa).

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect an increase of 1.27% in December, so that the IPCA will climb 4.44% in 2020

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    We see inflation ending the year significantly below the lower bound of the central bank’s 2% – 4% range around the target

  • Evening Edition – Higher nominal wages in Chile  

    The National Institute of Statistics (INE) reported nominal wages increased 0.3% from September to October.

  • Strong GDP recovery in Brazil  

    We expect 4Q20 GDP to increase 2.9% qoq sa (-1.5% yoy) and we are keeping our forecast of a 4.1% decline in 2020 as a whole

  • Industrial production continues to increase in Brazil  

    The latest industrial production report is yet another sign that GDP will continue to expand significantly in 4Q20

  • Evening Edition – Strong GDP recovery in Brazil  

    We expect 4Q20 GDP to increase 2.9% qoq sa (-1.5% yoy) and we are keeping our forecast of a 4.1% decline in 2020 as a whole

  • Activity recovery slows in Chile, dragged down by services  

    The surprise in October puts a downside bias to our call of a 5.5% GDP contraction for this year

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production continues to increase in Brazil  

    In October, industrial production climbed 1.1% mom/sa.

  • Evening Edition – We now see 4.3% inflation in Brazil, due to higher energy prices  

    We changed our IPCA 2021 forecasts to 4.3% given the change in the electricity flag to red 2 in December

  • We now see 4.3% inflation in Brazil, due to higher energy prices  

    Due to these changes, we now expect IPCA inflation at 4.3% in 2020 and 3.1% in 2021

  • Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    In our view, employment and the participation rate will continue to recover in line with the ongoing rebound in economic activity

  • Evening Edition – São Paulo recedes on reopening plan  

    Given the risk of a second COVID-19 wave across the state, the government decided to return the entire state to the “yellow phase”

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The service sector, which was responsible for substantial losses during the crisis, is now posting strong gains

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Employment improves at the margin

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The service sector, which was responsible for substantial losses during the crisis, is now posting strong gains

  • Retail sales continue to recover in Mexico  

    Using seasonally adjusted figures, retail sales expanded for the fifth consecutive month, by 2.7% mom in September

  • Higher-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    We forecast increases for the headline index of 0.78% in November and 0.71% in December

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected current account surplus in Brazil  

    We forecast a near-zero or marginally positive current account balance in the next few years

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    We forecast increases for the headline index of 0.78% in November and 0.71% in December

  • Brazil’s mid-month inflation to take center stage today  

    We forecast a 0.73% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.13% (from 3.52% in October)

  • Evening Edition – Industrial sector confidence continues to increase in Brazil  

    The industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)

  • Evening Edition – Peru’s GDP rebounds in 3Q20  

    We expect GDP to fall by 12.6% in 2020

  • Peru's GDP to be released today  

    We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures

  • Evening Edition – Peru's GDP to be released tomorrow  

    We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures

  • Consumption leads activity recovery in Chile  

    We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year.

  • Partial activity recovery in Colombia  

    For 2021, a favorable carryover and a better external environment will likely lead to GDP growth of 4.7%

  • Evening Edition – Consumption leads activity recovery in Chile  

    We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year.

  • Congress elects interim president in Peru  

    Lawmakers elected as head of Congress (and thus interim president until July 2021) Francisco Sagasti

  • Evening Edition – Partial activity recovery in Colombia  

    For 2021, a favorable carryover and a better external environment will likely lead to GDP growth of 4.7%

  • Evening Edition – Congress elects interim president in Peru  

    Lawmakers elected as head of Congress (and thus interim president until July 2021) Francisco Sagasti

  • Economic activity continues to recover in Colombia  

    For 2021, we see GDP growth of 4.7%


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