Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Evening Edition – Mixed results for confidence indicators in Brazil  

    For now, the construction and consumer confidence decreased, while the industrial (preview) and retail confidence advanced in February.

  • Mixed results for confidence indicators in Brazil  

    While the construction sector confidence receded in February, the retail confidence increased in the same period.

  • Consumer confidence recedes in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase in the current conditions component was offset by a sharp deterioration of the expectation components.

  • Mid-month inflation rate decelerates in Brazil  

    February’s IPCA-15 underscores the deflationary contribution from the beef-price-related shock and show well-behaved core inflation measures

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence increases in Brazil  

    The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).

  • February's industrial confidence preview increases in Brazil  

    The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).

  • Evening Edition – Macro Vision: Is there spare capacity in the Brazilian economy?  

    In our opinion, there is substantial spare capacity in the Brazilian economy.

  • Trade deficit widens to a three-year high in Colombia  

    The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.

  • Evening Edition – Trade deficit widens to a three-year high in Colombia  

    The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.

  • Stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Colombia  

    Slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag

  • Brazilian Central Bank intervenes in the FX market  

    Following yesterday's auction, the BCB also announced that an auction of same magnitude (20,000 swap contracts) will take place today.

  • Evening Edition – BCB intervenes in the FX market for the second consecutive day  

    The monetary authority offered 20,000 swap contracts, totaling USD 1 billion.

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Widespread weakness in the retail sector.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Core retail sales declined 0.1% mom/sa in December, weaker than market expectations (+0.2%)

  • Weak industrial production in Mexico  

    In year-over-year terms, industrial production declined -1.0%.

  • Copom releases the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting  

    We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes point to stable interest rates for the time being  

    The document indicated that the authorities are firmly on hold, at least for now, but may be divided on the key issue of the magnitude of the output gap.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The reading was the lowest for the month of January since 1994.

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on the Copom minutes to be released tomorrow  

    In the post-meeting communiqué, the committee delivered the widely expected 25-bp rate cut, taking the Selic rate to 4.25% pa.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    In all, the January’s IPCA inflation numbers confirm the deflationary trend after the beef priceh shock

  • Inflation release to take center stage in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.33% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.32%

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    The downside surprise was mainly explained by lower than anticipated housing, communication and fuel inflation.

  • Central bank interrupts the easing cycle in Brazil  

    We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM

  • Central bank interrupts the easing cycle in Brazil  

    We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on the Copom decision  

    We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.25% p.a.

  • Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our forecast for 2020 GDP growth stands at 2.2%

  • Activity bounce-back exceeds expectations in Chile  

    Dynamism in the month was led by non-mining activity

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    We continue to see economic activity in a gradual recovery trend

  • Evening Edition – Activity bounce-back exceeds expectations in Chile  

    Dynamism in the month was led by non-mining activity

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    The minutes of this meeting and the inflation report will be released today at 3:00 PM (SP time)

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    The minutes of this meeting and the inflation report will be released next Monday

  • Better-than-expected, but still weak GDP estimate in Mexico  

    Moreover, if the recent stabilization of oil output lasts, the mining sector would also contribute to a GDP growth improvement in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected, but still weak GDP estimate in Mexico  

    If the recent stabilization of oil output lasts, the mining sector would also contribute to a GDP growth improvement in 2020

  • Rates on hold in Chile  

    We expect an additional 50 bps of easing, to 1.25%, by yearend

  • Industrial sector confidence reaches optimistic grounds in Brazil  

    So far, confidence surveys on the industrial, retail and construction sectors registered positive results in January

  • Evening Edition – New non-earmarked loans increase in Brazil  

    The average interest rate on consumer loans declined to 47.3%

  • Construction confidence advances in Brazil  

    According to FGV, this result is consistent with the recovery in the construction sector

  • Better-than-expected trade balance in Mexico  

    A moderate slowdown in the U.S. economic activity in 2020 will probably have some impact on manufacturing exports

  • Retail confidence advances in Brazil  

    This advance was boosted by a strong reading on the expectations component

  • Wider-than-expected current account deficit in Brazil  

    In our view, even at a higher level, the current account deficit will still be comfortably financed by foreign direct investment

  • Evening Edition - Formal job creation remains at a good pace in Brazil  

    The seasonally-adjusted 3-month-moving average stands at 78k

  • Consumer confidence recedes in Brazil  

    This figures were probably influenced by the pressure in food prices observed recently

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected midmonth inflation in Brazil  

    In year-over-year terms, inflation advanced to 4.34% (our call: 4.27%; mkt: 4.30%), from 3.91% in the previous month.

  • President Bolsonaro’s approval rating increases  

    MDA surveyed 2002 respondents between January 15 and 18

  • Evening Edition – President Bolsonaro’s approval rating increases  

    His job approval rating went to 34.5% from 29.4% in August.

  • Industrial sector confidence increases in Brazil  

    With the result, the indicator entered into optimistic grounds for the first time since May 2018.

  • Evening Edition – Large trade deficit in Colombia  

    Given our expectation of more robust global growth, benefiting Colombia’s exports, we believe that a further widening of the deficit is unlikely

  • All eyes on possible policy signals in Davos  

    Local news indicate that Minister Paulo Guedes may provide policy signals and reveal details of the economic team’s flight plan into 2020

  • Economic activity moderates in Colombia  

    Despite some expected weakness in November, overall activity dynamism remains in line with growth close to the potential

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on possible policy signals in Davos  

    Minister Paulo Guedes may provide policy signals and reveal details of the economic team’s flight plan into 2020

  • Argentina’s central bank cuts reference rate  

    The Argentine central bank cut the Leliq rate to 50% from 52%. This is the fourth rate cut since Fernández took office last month

  • Evening Edition – Activity moderates in Colombia  

    We expect growth to come in at 3.1% this year

  • Retail sales surprise to the downside in Brazil  

    In our view, economic activity remains in a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin in November and December

  • Evening Edition – New pension reform proposal heads to congress in Chile  

    Despite a myriad of demands raised during the social uprising, a key factor was the low levels of pensions

  • Service sector revenues recede slightly in Brazil  

    In our view, economic activity remains on a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin

  • Evening Edition - Retail sales surprise to the downside in Brazil  

    In our view, economic activity remains in a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenues recede at the margin in Brazil  

    In our view, economic activity remains on a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin.

  • Weak domestic demand in Mexico  

    The breakdown, as reported by figures adjusted for working days, shows construction investment declined 5.1%

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Looking ahead, our preliminary forecast for January’s IPCA stands at 0.26%

  • Evening Edition – Weak domestic demand in Mexico  

    The breakdown, shows construction investment declined 5.1% yoy in the quarter ended in October

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Looking ahead, our preliminary forecast for January’s IPCA stands at 0.26%.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the contraction of industrial production was widespread

  • Argentina’s central bank cuts reference rate  

    This is the third rate cut since Fernández took office last month

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    A sharper price drop in the food division and a decline in tourism packages were the key factors behind the surprise

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    A sharper price drop in the food division and a decline in tourism packages were the key factors behind the surprise

  • Vehicle production recedes in Brazil  

    From a demand standpoint, both domestic sales and exports receded

  • Evening Edition – Vehicle production recedes in Brazil  

    From a demand standpoint, both domestic sales and exports receded

  • Brazil´s auto production data to take center stage on a day without major releases  

    The data will be released throughout the day

  • Evening Edition – Non-durable goods continue to lift inflation in Colombia  

    In December, prices gained 0.26% from the previous month (0.30% last year).

  • Non-durable goods continue to lift inflation in Colombia  

    In December, prices gained 0.26% from the previous month.

  • Sharp activity drop in Chile  

    Activity continued on the downward trend observed in October's figures.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence closes the year at a low level in Chile  

    A small improvement ended a four-month downward trend, as some normalization of day-to-day life returned following peak protest activity.

  • Evening Edition – Sharp activity drop in Chile  

    Activity continued on the downward trend observed in October's figures.

  • Widespread business confidence advance in Brazil  

    Confidence increase in all sectors in December.

  • Unemployment rate recedes in Brazil  

    According to our seasonally adjusted series, unemployment slid 0.2 p.p. to 11.7%.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected primary deficit in Brazil  

    The consolidated primary deficit over 12 months receded to 1.2% of GDP from 1.3% in the previous month.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate recedes in Brazil  

    According to our seasonally adjusted series, unemployment slid 0.2 p.p. to 11.7%.

  • Industrial sector confidence increases further in Brazil  

    As has been the case in recent months, the final indicator printed better than the preview, released last week.

  • Confidence indicators advance further in Brazil  

    Albeit at a slower pace, confidence in the service and retail sector followed the gains from the consumer, industry and construction confidence indexes.

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators advance further in Brazil  

    Albeit at a slower pace, confidence in the service and retail sector followed the gains from the consumer, industry and construction sectors.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 2.63% yoy in the first half of December.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    The board of the central bank unanimously decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 4.25%, as widely expected.

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators show solid gains in Brazil  

    Today’s results go in line with the preview for the industrial confidence released yesterday, which also showed good signs of improvements

  • Confidence indicators show solid gains in Brazil  

    Both the consumer and construction sector confidence advanced in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Room for more rate cuts, despite signs of economic recovery in Brazil  

    Strong CAGED and confidence indicators are not a stop sign for the easing cycle.

  • Industrial sector confidence advances in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the print was driven by improvements both in the expectations and in the current conditions component.

  • Evening Edition – Still-wide trade deficit in Colombia  

    With domestic demand still upbeat, and global growth low, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide ahead.

  • Short-lived GDP recovery in Argentina  

    Despite the advance in quarterly terms, activity likely endured a further deterioration following the presidential election in October.

  • Evening Edition – Copom Minutes: data dependent, with some dissent  

    The Copom minutes, released this morning, indicate that the authorities remain data dependent, but with a somewhat hawkish tone.

  • Government implements its first fiscal measures in Argentina  

    Although the details are unknown, they will include a 30% tax on purchases in hard currency (both domestic and abroad).

  • Stronger-than-expected activity indicators in Colombia  

    Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Government implements its first fiscal measures in Argentina  

    A bill will be sent tonight with further measures.

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Argentina  

    The CPI increased by 4.3% mom, up from 3.3% in October and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 4.0%.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected activity indicators in Colombia  

    Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead.

  • Selic rate reaches 4.5% p.a. in Brazil  

    The statement does not commit to additional rate cuts, but does not rule them out either.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected service sector revenues in Brazil  

    At the margin, the indicator increased 0.8% mom/sa.

  • Evening Edition – Selic rate reaches 4.5% p.a. in Brazil  

    We will publish an in-depth report on Copom’s decision later tonight.

  • All eyes on the Copom  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps to 4.50% p.a.

  • Alberto Fernández to be sworn in as president today  

    The ceremony may take place by mid-day, without a specific time.

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on the Copom  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps to 4.50% p.a.

  • President Bolsonaro’s approval rate remains broadly stable  

    The share that views the government as “bad” + “awful” decreased to 36%, from 38%.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Looking ahead, we expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Compared to our forecast, the highlight was the deviation in the group of food consumed at home, as beef prices soared 8.54%.

  • High inflation forecast bodes monetary policy caution in Chile  

    In our view, the highly uncertain domestic environment means stable rates at 1.75% for now.

  • Evening Edition – High inflation forecast bodes monetary policy caution in Chile  

    In our view, the highly uncertain domestic environment means stable rates at 1.75% for now.

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    In the coming months, we see rates stable at 1.75%

  • Stronger-than-expected 3Q19 GDP in Brazil  

    Additionally, the historical GDP series was revised upward, so that 2018 GDP expanded 1.3% (previously +1.1%).

  • Economic activity plummets in Chile  

    The GDP proxy receded 5.4% mom/sa, sharper than the 4.1% drop in March 2010, when the economy was struck by a earthquake.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected 3Q19 GDP in Brazil  

    Additionally, the historical GDP series was revised upward, so that 2018 GDP expanded 1.3% (previously +1.1%)

  • Evening Edition – Activity plummets in Chile  

    The economy decline was sharper than when the economy was struck by a major earthquake.

  • Trump increases steel and aluminum tariffs for Brazil and Argentina  

    The president of the United States announced the increases from his official Twitter account.

  • Evening Edition – Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remains stable in Brazil  

    Employment composition improves and income advances.

  • Chilean Central Bank intervenes in the FX market  

    The bank announced a USD 20 billion program, through auctions of USD 10 billion in the spot market and USD 10 billion in the NDF market.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence rises in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the positive print was driven by advances both in the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Industrial confidence rises in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the positive print was driven by advances both in the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Protests continue with smaller numbers in Colombia  

    Despite the decrease, an organized protest has been called for today.

  • Evening Edition – BCB continues to intervene in the FX market  

    The BCB intervened by selling dollars in the spot market for the second consecutive day.

  • Construction confidence advances in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven by the current conditions component (+2.4 p.p., to 81.3)

  • Evening Edition – BCB intervenes in the FX market  

    Earlier today, the BCB intervened twice by selling dollars in the spot market.

  • Evening Edition – 3Q19’s GDP revised slightly up in Mexico  

    Recent activity figures highlight downside risk to our GDP growth forecast of 0.1% for 2019.

  • Formal job creation continues to improve in Brazil  

    This pace of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of 2.1% in annualized terms

  • Evening Edition – Formal job creation continues to improve in Brazil  

    The current pace of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of 2.1% in annualized terms.

  • Consumers still downbeat in Colombia  

    Continued loosening of the labor market, weaker consumer sentiment and higher short-term inflation could curb consumption growth ahead.

  • Chile’s GDP growth likely peaked in 3Q19  

    Looking ahead, despite some encouraging signs from 3Q19, recent disruptions would deny the persistence of the recovery through 4Q19.

  • Evening Edition – No major releases today  

    Notwithstanding the temporary hiatus, important data are expected for the rest of the week.

  • Evening Edition – Chile’s GDP growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Looking ahead, despite some encouraging signs from 3Q19, recent disruptions would deny the persistence of the recovery through 4Q19

  • Slightly higher inflation expectations for 2019 in Colombia  

    On the other hand, the medium-term outlook remains broadly anchored.

  • Solid retail sales growth in Brazil  

    Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending in the country.

  • Evening Edition – Favorable activity dynamics in Colombia  

    GDP expanded 3.3% in 3Q19 (3.0% in 2Q19), in line with expectations and the highest rate since 2015.

  • Evening Edition – Solid retail sales growth in Brazil  

    Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending in the country.

  • Service sector revenues surprise to the upside in Brazil  

    After this release, our 3Q19 GDP tracking increased slightly to 0.44% qoq/sa from 0.40% qoq/sa.

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenues surprise to the upside in Brazil  

    After this release, our 3Q19 GDP tracking increased slightly to 0.44% qoq/sa from 0.40% qoq/sa.

  • Minutes reinforce the easing bias in Chile  

    Going forward, we expect a 50-bp rate cut, to 1.25%, at the December meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Minutes reinforce the easing bias in Chile  

    Going forward, we expect a 50-bp rate cut, to 1.25%, at the December meeting.

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    Electricity tariff hikes, rise to air travel, and a higher-than-expected spike in tourism packages lifted inflation in the month.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    Electricity tariff hikes, rise to air travel, and a higher-than-expected spike in tourism packages lifted inflation in the month.

  • We now expect a 50-bp rate cut next week in Mexico  

    Previously, we were expecting a 25-bp cut, with the central bank accelerating the pace of monetary policy easing at the December meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation slightly above expectations in Brazil  

    Despite the surprise, October's report was another sign that inflation remains on a benign path.

  • Brazil auctions 2 of 4 fields from the transfer-of-rights oil area  

    In a weaker-than-expected outcome, 2 of the 4 exploratory blocks were sold with small participation from foreign parties.

  • Transfer-of-rights oil surplus auction to be held today in Brazil  

    The bidding round will take place at 10:00 BRT.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil auctions 2 out of 4 fields from the transfer-of-rights oil area  

    Signing bonuses totaled BRL 69.9 billion, below the BRL 106 billion expected by the government

  • Evening Edition – Copom Minutes: Caution at this stage  

    The document reinforced the expectation of an additional 50-bp cut at December’s meeting, but indicated caution going forward.

  • Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    At the margin, activity fell 0.6% from August, the first monthly decline since February.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    At the margin, activity fell 0.6% from August, the first monthly decline since February, as mining fell sharply and non-mining activity also contracted.

  • Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Going forward, our preliminary forecast for 3Q19 GDP was revised to +0.4% qoq/sa (from +0.5% previously).

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    The two components of industrial production closely related to investment remain broadly stable at low levels.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    The minutes of the meeting will be released today.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    Unemployment will fall only gradually, but the informal employment is lowering, giving room to formal jobs.

  • Selic rate reaches 5% p.a. in Brazil  

    The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, cutting the Selic rate by 50 bps, in a unanimous decision.

  • Evening Edition – Selic rate reaches 5% p.a. in Brazil  

    The committee decided to lower the Selic rate with a 50-bp cut, as widely expected.

  • Service sector confidence recedes in Brazil  

    Importantly, the expectations component of all confidence indexes decreased in October, with the biggest drop registered in today’s print.

  • President reshuffles cabinet in Chile  

    Piñera will change the ministers of the Interior, Finance, Economy, among others government members.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The installed capacity utilization level (NUCI) increased 0.3 p.p., to 75.8%, still suggesting a wide slack in production factors.

  • Alberto Fernández is the new president of Argentina  

    In a short and moderate victory speech, Alberto Fernandez said there are difficult times ahead.

  • Evening Edition – President reshuffles cabinet in Chile  

    Piñera will change the ministers of the Interior, Finance, Economy, among others government members.

  • Retail confidence increases in Brazil  

    In all, today’s indicator will help to counterweight the falling trend observed in other confidence indexes so far.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in the country’s private consumption

  • 25-bp policy rate cut in Chile  

    The bank also noted that additional easing could be required to ensure inflation converges to the target, hinting at another cut ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Mexico  

    Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy and trade relations with the U.S. are weighing on investment

  • Brazilian Senate approves base text of the pension reform  

    The voting on the highlights is set to continue today.

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform approved in Brazil  

    After a lengthy process, the main measure of the ongoing fiscal adjustment in the country is finished.

  • Industrial confidence preview retreats in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the print was driven by a drop both in the current conditions and in the expectations component.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Weaker-than-expected deflation in food at home prices was behind the deviation from our call.

  • Transport tariff hike leads to wide scale protests in Chile  

    Our preliminary estimates point at 50bp lower growth in October, likely shaving a couple of basis points for the entire year.

  • Evening Edition – Transport tariff hike leads to wide scale protests in Chile  

    Our preliminary estimates point at a 50bp lower growth in October, likely shaving a couple of basis points for the entire year.

  • Evening Edition – Large trade deficit in Colombia  

    Solid import growth amid a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected job creation in Brazil  

    The current level of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.9% in annualized terms.

  • Colombian Constitutional Court scraps financing law  

    The ruling implies that reform-related revenue received to date can be retained (and for the remainder of 2019).

  • Evening Edition – Inflation spiked in Argentina  

    Consumer prices rose markedly in September, fully reflecting the depreciation of the ARS in the previous month.

  • Brazilian Senate approves the division of the oil auction resources  

    The bill now heads to presidential sanction

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales surprise to the upside in Colombia  

    With private consumption continuing to surprise to the upside, we note that activity growth this year could exceed our 3% forecast

  • Broad activity indicator slightly below market expectations in Brazil  

    This result follows weaker-than-expected readings registered in the retail and services indicators for August

  • Weak service sector data in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that three out of the five main categories declined

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP indicator slightly below market expectations in Brazil  

    Compared to August 2018, the index dropped 0.73%, virtually in line with our forecast (-0.8%) and weaker than the market’s (-0.5%).

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Despite the result, consumption remains in an upward trend.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity numbers in Brazil  

    Service revenues decreased in August, contributing to the weak monthly GDP proxy (PIB-IU) in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Looking forward, withdrawals from the workers’ severance fund (FGTS) will likely provide a temporary boost to retail sales in coming months.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    All core measures remain at comfortable levels, around 3% year-over-year.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    All core measures remain at comfortable levels, around 3% year-over-year.

  • Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    From a monetary policy standpoint, this print consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75%, later this month.

  • Domestic demand remains soft in Mexico  

    Weakness in external demand and uncertainties over the domestic policy and trade relations with the U.S. are weighing on investment.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Chile  

    From a monetary policy standpoint, this print consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75%, later this month.

  • Evening Edition – Domestic demand remains soft in Mexico  

    Looking forward, we expect GDP growth of 0.4% for 2019.

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    Food, housing and education prices lead the gain in the month.

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity to take center stage next week in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Brazil’s Senate concludes the first-round vote on the pension reform  

    The Senate’s Speaker, Davi Alcolumbre, has declared his intent of starting the discussions of the second-round of voting today

  • Retail sales positive surprise in Chile  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • Evening Edition – Positive retail sales surprise in Chile  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • Brazil’s pension reform approved by the Senate with unexpected dilution  

    There are still 6 amendments to be voted, which is expected to take place today at 11:00 AM

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Senate concludes the first-round vote of the pension reform  

    The Senate’s Speaker, Davi Alcolumbre, has declared his intent of resuming the discussions for the second-round of voting tomorrow.

  • Better-than-expected primary balance in Brazil  

    Despite the improvement, a favorable fiscal scenario depends strictly on the approval of reforms, such as the pension reform.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production surprises to the upside in Brazil  

    Looking at the breakdown, the increase in industrial production was not widespread, as just 10 out of 26 activities (38%) expanded during the month.

  • Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    The underemployment rate, which also considers people working for fewer hours than they would like, reached 24.3%.

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected primary balance in Brazil  

    A favorable fiscal scenario depends strictly on the approval of reforms, such as the pension reform

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    According to our seasonally-adjusted series, unemployment rose to 12.0% from 11.9%.

  • Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • Industrial confidence remains stable in Brazil  

    The final indicator printed slightly better than the preview released last week, but remains at low levels.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected job creation in Brazil  

    This level of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.4% in annualized terms.

  • Construction confidence declines in Brazil  

    The capacity utilization for the sector declined 0.2 p.p. (to 69.4%).


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