Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Vaccination campaign on track to start in Brazil  

    There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use.

  • Evening Edition – Core retail sales decline slightly in Brazil  

    We expect retail sales to decline in December, but preliminary data indicate some improvement in January

  • Stable rates in Peru  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout the year amid a still wide negative output gap

  • Service sector continues to recover in Brazil  

    We updated our 4Q20 GDP forecast to +3.0% (from +2.9%) qoq/sa, and continue to forecast a 4.1% drop in 2020 as a whole

  • Evening Edition – Higher inflation in Argentina  

    Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.

  • Evening Edition – Service sector continues to recover in Brazil  

    We updated our 4Q20 GDP forecast to +3.0% (from +2.9%) qoq/sa, and continue to forecast a 4.1% drop in 2020 as a whole

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect prices to increase 0.24% in January, 0.41% in February and 0.24% in March

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation rate in Brazil  

    We expect prices to increase 0.24% in January, 0.41% in February and 0.24% in March

  • Industrial production continues to recover in Mexico  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Mexico  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • Industrial production continues to advance in Brazil  

    Industrial production enjoys a strong recovery process

  • Efficacy results of the CoronaVac vaccine are released in Brazil  

    According to Butantan, none of the volunteers that received the CoronaVac vaccine suffered major complications when infected with the virus

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production continues to recover in Brazil  

    Industrial production enjoys a strong recovery process

  • Evening Edition – Efficacy results of the Coronavac vaccine are released in Brazil  

    According to Butantan, none of the volunteers that received the CoronaVac suffered major complications when infected by the virus

  • Efficacy results of CoronaVac may be disclosed today in Brazil  

    The efficacy results of the CoronaVac vaccine may be disclosed today

  • Evening Edition – Coronavac efficacy results may be disclosed tomorrow in Brazil  

    The efficacy results of the Coronavac vaccine may be disclosed tomorrow

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    For 2021 higher inflation is likely (Itaú 3.0%)

  • Better-than-expected trade deficit in Brazil  

    Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Uruguay  

    A moderate correction is expected if inflation expectations continue to fall

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected trade deficit in Brazil   

    Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic

  • Activity indicators show mixed results in Chile  

    We expect the monthly GDP proxy to have expanded 1% YoY in the month (-1.2% in October)

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected fiscal results in Brazil  

    Fiscal results better at the margin

  • Unemployment rate below expectations in Brazil  

    According to our estimate, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate receded to 14.4%, from 14.7% in the previous month

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate below expectations in Brazil  

    According to our estimate, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate receded to 14.4%, from 14.7% in the previous month

  • Services confidence improves in Brazil  

    Overall, confidence indicators showed mixed results in December

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence continues to advance in Brazil  

    Industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)

  • Industrial confidence continues to advance in Brazil  

    Industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)

  • Mixed results in confidence indicators in Brazil  

    Construction confidence increased slightly in December, while retail confidence dropped further.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expect formal job creation in Brazil  

    The indicator reached 414k jobs in November, stronger than market expectations (269k) and our call (260k).

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    The IPCA-15 climbed 1.06% in December, printing below our estimate and market expectations (both at 1.17%).

  • Consumer confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The index registered the third consecutive drop.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    Retail sales fell by 7.1% yoy, worse than our forecast of -4.6% and market expectations of -5.1%.

  • Stable rates in Colombia  

    The central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected.

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle in the next policy decision

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    A split board and the change in guard mean a deeper easing cycle cannot be ruled out.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to resume cutting the policy rate as soon as 1Q21

  • GDP rebounds in Argentina with easier isolation rules  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Evening Edition – GDP rebounds in Argentina with easier isolation rules  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Argentina  

    Headline inflation posted a lower-than-expected increase in November, following the October spike.

  • Evening Edition – Copom signals forward guidance will be maintained in early 2021  

    Minutes clarify conditions to discard forward guidance. Given our inflation forecast, we expect this to happen only in the fall (S. Hem.)

  • Activity recovery continues in Colombia  

    We expect growth of 5% next year, bouncing back from a 7% decline forecast for 2020

  • Better-than-expected service sector data in Brazil  

    At the margin, revenue increased 1.7% mom/sa

  • Evening Edition – Activity recovery continues in Colombia  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly was released today, featuring scenarios for Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and the global economy

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected service sector data in Brazil  

    At the margin, revenue increased 1.7% mom/sa

  • Retail sales continue to increase in Brazil  

    We expect significant GDP growth in 4Q20 (our current forecast: +2.9% qoq/sa)

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales continue to increase in Brazil  

    We expect significant GDP growth in 4Q20 (our current forecast: +2.9% qoq/sa).

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect an increase of 1.27% in December, so that the IPCA will climb 4.44% in 2020

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    We see inflation ending the year significantly below the lower bound of the central bank’s 2% – 4% range around the target

  • Evening Edition – Higher nominal wages in Chile  

    The National Institute of Statistics (INE) reported nominal wages increased 0.3% from September to October.

  • Strong GDP recovery in Brazil  

    We expect 4Q20 GDP to increase 2.9% qoq sa (-1.5% yoy) and we are keeping our forecast of a 4.1% decline in 2020 as a whole

  • Industrial production continues to increase in Brazil  

    The latest industrial production report is yet another sign that GDP will continue to expand significantly in 4Q20

  • Evening Edition – Strong GDP recovery in Brazil  

    We expect 4Q20 GDP to increase 2.9% qoq sa (-1.5% yoy) and we are keeping our forecast of a 4.1% decline in 2020 as a whole

  • Activity recovery slows in Chile, dragged down by services  

    The surprise in October puts a downside bias to our call of a 5.5% GDP contraction for this year

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production continues to increase in Brazil  

    In October, industrial production climbed 1.1% mom/sa.

  • Evening Edition – We now see 4.3% inflation in Brazil, due to higher energy prices  

    We changed our IPCA 2021 forecasts to 4.3% given the change in the electricity flag to red 2 in December

  • We now see 4.3% inflation in Brazil, due to higher energy prices  

    Due to these changes, we now expect IPCA inflation at 4.3% in 2020 and 3.1% in 2021

  • Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    In our view, employment and the participation rate will continue to recover in line with the ongoing rebound in economic activity

  • Evening Edition – São Paulo recedes on reopening plan  

    Given the risk of a second COVID-19 wave across the state, the government decided to return the entire state to the “yellow phase”

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The service sector, which was responsible for substantial losses during the crisis, is now posting strong gains

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Employment improves at the margin

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The service sector, which was responsible for substantial losses during the crisis, is now posting strong gains

  • Retail sales continue to recover in Mexico  

    Using seasonally adjusted figures, retail sales expanded for the fifth consecutive month, by 2.7% mom in September

  • Higher-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    We forecast increases for the headline index of 0.78% in November and 0.71% in December

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected current account surplus in Brazil  

    We forecast a near-zero or marginally positive current account balance in the next few years

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    We forecast increases for the headline index of 0.78% in November and 0.71% in December

  • Brazil’s mid-month inflation to take center stage today  

    We forecast a 0.73% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.13% (from 3.52% in October)

  • Evening Edition – Industrial sector confidence continues to increase in Brazil  

    The industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)

  • Evening Edition – Peru’s GDP rebounds in 3Q20  

    We expect GDP to fall by 12.6% in 2020

  • Peru's GDP to be released today  

    We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures

  • Evening Edition – Peru's GDP to be released tomorrow  

    We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures

  • Consumption leads activity recovery in Chile  

    We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year.

  • Partial activity recovery in Colombia  

    For 2021, a favorable carryover and a better external environment will likely lead to GDP growth of 4.7%

  • Evening Edition – Consumption leads activity recovery in Chile  

    We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year.

  • Congress elects interim president in Peru  

    Lawmakers elected as head of Congress (and thus interim president until July 2021) Francisco Sagasti

  • Evening Edition – Partial activity recovery in Colombia  

    For 2021, a favorable carryover and a better external environment will likely lead to GDP growth of 4.7%

  • Evening Edition – Congress elects interim president in Peru  

    Lawmakers elected as head of Congress (and thus interim president until July 2021) Francisco Sagasti

  • Economic activity continues to recover in Colombia  

    For 2021, we see GDP growth of 4.7%

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Peru  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020 and 2021 amid a wide negative output gap and subdued inflation

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.

  • Retail sales continue to increase in Brazil  

    Retail sales are well above their pre-crisis levels

  • Second pension withdrawal bill advances in Chile  

    The initiative will now move to the senate’s constitution commission

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales continue to increase in Brazil  

    Retail sales are well above their pre-crisis levels

  • Peru’s congress votes to ouster president Vizcarra  

    The Head of Congress, Manuel Merino, is expected to take over as interim president until the next presidential term begins

  • Evening Edition – Second pension withdrawal bill advances in Chile  

    The initiative will return to the lower house’s constitution commission to discuss the particularities of the project

  • Evening Edition – Inflation accelerates in Mexico   

    Core inflation stood at 0.24%, below our call and market expectations of 0.26%

  • Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecasts for the IPCA are 0.47% in November and 0.70% in December

  • Large downside surprise to inflation in Colombia  

    The main drag in the month was the 2.48% drop of the education division.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecasts for the IPCA are 0.47% in November and 0.70% in December, so that the full-year increase is estimated at 3.41%

  • Evening Edition – Nominal wages increase in Chile  

    The faster annual gain was aided by a lower base of comparison

  • Congress overturns veto to payroll tax break extension in Brazil  

    The tax exemption was extended until the end of 2021. If the veto was maintained, the tax break would have ended in 2020.

  • Brazilian Senate approves Central Bank Autonomy  

    The bill will now head to the Lower House

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes reinforce stable rates in Brazil  

    We see the minutes as consistent with our view that the committee will leave the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, until late 2021

  • Activity continues to recover in Chile  

    We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    We believe the board will keep rates at 1.75% for some time, as they evaluate how the economy responds to the reopening process

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The improvement in job creation has been widespread within sectors

  • Stable rates in Brazil  

    The Copom maintained the Selic rate at 2.0% p.a and tweaked its communication in a hawkish direction

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The improvement in job creation has been widespread within sectors

  • Chilean Congress advances on a second pension withdrawal  

    If the bill passes the detailed discussion in the commission, it will move to the full floor for a vote

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Brazil  

    The Copom maintained the Selic rate at 2.0% p.a and tweaked its communication in a hawkish direction.

  • Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect the economy to recover during the rest of the year

  • Evening Edition – Chilean Congress advances on a second pension withdrawal  

    As expected, the Constitution Commission of the Lower House of congress voted to allow a second pension withdrawal

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Mexico  

    We expect the economy to recover during the rest of the year

  • Chileans overwhelmingly support rewriting the Constitution  

    The new constitution would likely seek to place more weight in the role of the state in the provision of social services

  • Stronger-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    CPI posted a bi-weekly rate of 0.54%, broadly in line with our forecast of 0.52%, but above market expectations of 0.46%.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The mid-month inflation index IPCA-15 climbed 0.94% in October.

  • Fiscal deficit widens in Argentina  

    The Treasury ran a primary deficit of ARS 167.2 billion in September, compared with a deficit of ARS 25.4 billion for the same month in 2019.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Mexico’s CPI posted a bi-weekly rate of 0.54%, broadly in line with our forecast of 0.52%, but above market expectations at 0.46%.

  • Industrial sector confidence increases in Brazil  

    The industrial confidence (second preview) advanced 4.0 p.p. in October (to 110.7), after increasing 8.0 p.p. in September.

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit widens in Argentina​​​​​  

    The Treasury ran a primary deficit of ARS 167.2 billion in September, compared with a deficit of ARS 25.4 billion for the same month in 2019.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s industrial sector confidence to be released tomorrow  

    FGV will release the second preview of the industrial sector confidence survey for October at 8:00 AM (SP time).

  • Slower trade balance adjustment in Colombia  

    A trade deficit of USD 828 million was recorded in August, narrowing from the USD 1.4 billion deficit last year.

  • Evening Edition – Trade balance correction remained sluggish in Colombia  ​​​  

    Downbeat domestic demand led to imports shrinking by more than a fourth in August.

  • Stable rates in Chile  

    The policy rate was kept unchanged at 0.5%, as widely expected.

  • Inflation in line with expectations in Argentina  

    The CPI increased by 2.8% mom in the month (slightly above the market consensus of 2.7%), from 2.7% in August.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile  

    The policy rate was kept unchanged at 0.5%, as widely expected.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Argentina​​​​​  

    Core inflation slowed in September.

  • Year-end inflation expectations increase in Brazil  

    Market participants continue to adjust inflation forecasts for this year. 

  • Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Mexico  

    The indicator fell by 9.0% year-over-year in the month, better than our forecast of -11.5% and market expectations of -10.3%.

  • Evening Edition – Year-end inflation expectations increase in Brazil  

    According to the Focus survey, market participants continue to adjust their inflation forecasts for this year.

  • Stable rates in Peru  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020 and 2021

  • Evening Edition – Strong retail sales in Brazil  

    The data reinforces our view of a significant recovery in Q3 GDP

  • Evening Edition – Larger-than-expected trade surplus in Chile  

    Going forward, the anticipated recovery would result in some widening of the current account deficit next year to 2% of GDP

  • Internal demand continues to recover in Mexico  

    Our GDP forecast for 2020 stands at -10.7%

  • Higher-than-expected inflation in Uruguay  

    Our inflation forecast for this year stands at 9.5%.

  • Evening Edition – Internal demand continues to recover in Mexico  

    Our GDP forecast for 2020 stands at -10.7%

  • Industrial production continues to recover in Brazil  

    We continue to forecast a 4.5% GDP decline in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Uruguay  

    Our inflation forecast for this year stands at 9.5%

  • Central Bank of Argentina hikes one-day repo rate  

    The one-day repo rate was increased by 500 bp to 24%

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Peru  

    A wide negative output gap will put downward pressure on prices

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The improvement in employment and wages reinforces our view that GDP will recover significantly in the second half of this year

  • Better-than-expected central government primary deficit in Brazil  

    Compared to our call, the surprise came from lower-than-anticipated COVID-19 emergency spending and higher non-tax revenues

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The improvement in employment and wages reinforces our view that GDP will recover significantly in the second half of this year

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected central government primary deficit in Brazil  

    Compared to our call, the surprise came from lower-than-anticipated COVID-19 emergency spending and higher non-tax revenues

  • Stronger-than-expected monthly GDP proxy in Argentina  

    We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0%

  • Another 25-bp rate cut in Colombia  

    We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected official monthly GDP proxy in Argentina  

    We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0% from -12.7%

  • Evening Edition – Another 25-bp rate cut in Colombia  

    A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended

  • 25-bp rate cut in Mexico, as expected  

    We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020

  • Higher mid-month inflation in Brazil amid food prices pressure  

    We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Evening Edition – 25-bp rate cut in Mexico, as expected  

    We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020

  • Evening Edition – Higher mid-month inflation in Brazil amid food prices pressure  

    We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Argentina’s GDP collapsed in 2Q20 amid strict lockdowns  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20

  • Domestic demand collapses in Mexico  

    We expect GDP to fall by 10.7%.

  • Evening Edition – Argentina’s GDP collapsed in 2Q20 amid strict lockdowns   

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20

  • Evening Edition – Domestic demand collapses in Mexico  

    Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19

  • Activity continues to improve in Colombia  

    Overall, we expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year)

  • Evening Edition – Activity improves slightly in Colombia  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).

  • Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in Colombia  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • Stable rates in Brazil  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Evening Edition – Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in Colombia  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • Argentina’s central bank further tightens controls on foreign exchange purchases  

    In our view, exchange rate controls will undermine the economic recovery following the lifting of social distancing measures

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Brazil  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Evening Edition – We now see higher 2020 inflation in Brazil, due to food price increases  

    We revised our annual inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.0% after incorporating additional pressure on food costs

  • Underwhelming activity indicators in Colombia  

    The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)

  • Weaker-than-expected service sector activity in Brazil  

    The data continue to indicate that the economy is recovering

  • Evening Edition – Underwhelming activity indicators in Colombia  

    The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    In all, this print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected service sector activity in Brazil  

    The main negative surprises relative to our estimates were transportation and information & communication services

  • Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    In all, today’s print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November. We expect the IPCA to rise 2.0% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Unsurprising low inflation in Chile  

    An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year).

  • Internal demand starts to recover in Mexico  

    We forecast a 10.7% decline for GDP in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Unsurprising low inflation in Chile  

    An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year)

  • LatAm Talking Points – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week

  • Evening Edition – Poor wage bill dynamics endure in Chile  

    Overall, the real wage bill reached a new historical minimum on record

  • Central Bank indicates better prospects for Chile’s economy  

    The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week

  • Slightly weaker-than-expected 2Q20 GDP in Brazil  

    We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year

  • Evening Edition – Central Bank indicates better prospects for Chile’s economy  

    The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021

  • Evening Edition – Slightly-weaker-than-expected 2Q20 GDP in Brazil  

    We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year

  • Colombian Central Bank cut rates by 25bps  

    We see rates remaining at 2.0% throughout 2021

  • Poor labor market dynamics endure in Chile  

    Overall, an average unemployment rate of 10.4% is estimated, up from 7.2% last year

  • Banxico minutes indicate further easing contingent on data  

    Our base case is for Banxico to deliver a 25-bp rate cut in the next monetary policy meeting (September 24)

  • Evening Edition – Poor labor market dynamics endure in Chile  

    The rate came in between market consensus of 12.8% and our 13.5% call

  • Mexico’s 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but started to recover in June  

    We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%

  • Moody’s lowers Chile’s outlook to negative  

    Moody’s rating agency affirmed the sovereign credit rating for Chile (‘A1’), but revised the outlook from stable to negative

  • Evening Edition – Mexico’s 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but started to recover in June  

    We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020

  • Evening Edition – Moody’s lowers Chile’s outlook to negative  

    S&P rates Chile at a comparable level, while Fitch is one notch lower at ‘A’

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The improvement was widespread across sectors

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    CAGED data provide a better labor market picture than other surveys, such as the PNAD Covid

  • Brazilian Lower House maintains veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    With this decision, the government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn

  • Brazilian Senate overturns veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    The government is working to reach an agreement to avoid a final overturn

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House maintains veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    The government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn, according to calculations from the Ministry of Economy

  • Activity slumps in Chile  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate overturns veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    The veto will now head to the Lower House, where it will require 257 votes to be overturned

  • Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Peru  

    We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Historic demand slump in Chile  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • Record GDP drop in Colombia  

    There was a historic drop at the margin, but dynamics improved within the quarter

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Peru  

    We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Record GDP drop in Colombia  

    The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (+3.3% last year)

  • LatAm Talking Points – 50-bp rate cut in Mexico  

    We expect the central bank to slow down the pace of rate cuts, delivering 25-bp reductions in each of the next two meetings

  • Evening Edition – 50-bp rate cut in Mexico  

    We maintain our forecast for the policy rate at 4.0% before the year ends

  • Solid retail sales recovery in Brazil  

    This reflects the strong rebound in household spending on goods

  • Two secretaries announce their departure from Brazilian government  

    Both secretaries were in office since the beginning of president Bolsonaro’s administration


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