Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Evening Edition – Itaú’s Monthly GDP declines in September  

    Financial conditions became tighter and impacted output during 3Q18.

  • COLOMBIA – Strong activity end to 3Q18  

    Activity was in line with our 3% growth forecast in 3Q18

  • Brazilian retail sales fell in September  

    Compared to September 2017, core sales went up 0.1%

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian retail sales fell in September  

    Compared to September 2017, core sales went up 0.1%.

  • S&P Downgrades Argentina to B from B+, Outlook Stable  

    The downgrade was due to deterioration of debt profile, growth perspectives and dynamic of inflation

  • Mexican industrial production accelerated in the 3Q18  

    We expect economic activity to grow 2.0% in 2018, as manufacturing exports recover (benefited by growth in the U.S.)

  • Evening Edition – Inflation expectations for 2018 decline in Brazil  

    The median GDP growth expectations remained stable at 1.36% for 2018, and 2.50% for both 2019 and 2020.

  • Mexican inflation decelerated in October, but remains high  

    We expect inflation to decelerate to 4.4% for the end of this year

  • Evening Edition – Mexican industrial production accelerated in the 3Q18  

    Adjusted by calendar effects, industrial production grew 2.6% year-over-year, taking the 3Q18 growth rate to 1.3% year-over-year.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in November is a 0.05% increase

  • Evening Edition – Mexican inflation decelerated in October, but remains high  

    Headline inflation slowed down to 4.90% year-over-year in October, with core inflation accelerating somewhat to 3.73% year-over-year.

  • Brazil’s Copom Minutes: Steady rates for long  

    Given this backdrop, the Copom will probably leave its base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa in its December 12 policy meeting

  • Evening Edition – October’s inflation surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    The biggest upward contributions during the month came from transportation (0.17 p.p.) and food and beverages (0.15 p.p.).

  • Chilean activity weakens in 3Q18  

    Strong service performance continues to offset weakening in remaining non-mining activity

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Copom Minutes: Steady rates for long  

    The Copom will probably leave its base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa in its December 12 policy meeting.

  • Brazilian industrial production declines in September  

    Industrial production should rebound in the coming months

  • Evening Edition – Chilean activity weakens in 3Q18  

    The monthly GDP proxy (Imacec) grew 2.3% year-over-year in September, surpassing both Bloomberg market consensus and our forecast of 2.0%.

  • Brazil’s Copom keeps interest rate unchanged  

    We will learn more about the Copom’s thinking with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian industrial production declines in September  

    Compared to September 2017, output fell 2.0%.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Copom keeps interest rate unchanged  

    The statement brings few but relevant changes compared with the previous edition.

  • Gains in informal jobs push Brazilian unemployment rate down  

    Informal jobs resumed their influence on employment gains

  • Evening Edition – Gains in informal jobs push Brazilian unemployment down  

    Compared to 3Q17, unemployment receded 0.5 p.p.

  • We now expect Mexico’s central bank to hike the policy rate by 25-bps in its next meeting  

    The decision on the airport changes our monetary policy rate and exchange rate outlook

  • Bolsonaro (PSL) wins the Presidential election with 55% of valid votes  

    The result came in close to the numbers shown in recent polls

  • Evening Edition – Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) wins the Presidential election with 55% of valid votes  

    The result came in close to the numbers shown in recent polls.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian central government deficit comes in line with expectations  

    This was the fifth consecutive unanimous decision.

  • New polls show Jair Bolsonaro with 56% of valid votes, Haddad has 44%  

    Datafolha and Real Time Big Data show similar results

  • Evening Edition – New poll shows Jair Bolsonaro with 56% of valid votes, Haddad has 44%  

    In the previous Datafolha poll, Jair Bolsonaro had 59% (50% of total votes) and Fernando Haddad 41% (35%).

  • Tax collection remains in a relative good pace in Brazil  

    The result doesn’t change the outlook of a much better central government primary result than the BRL -159 billion target

  • New poll shows Jair Bolsonaro with 57% of the valid votes, Fernando Haddad has 43%  

    The survey was conducted between October 21 and 23

  • Evening Edition – Poll shows Jair Bolsonaro with 57% of the valid votes, Fernando Haddad has 43%  

    In the previous Ibope poll, Jair Bolsonaro had 59% (52% of total votes) and Fernando Haddad 41% (37%).

  • On-going fiscal deficit narrowing in Argentina  

    We expect a primary deficit of 2.6% of GDP this year, compared with a 2.7% target

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IPCA-15 comes below expectations  

    The biggest deviation from our call was caused by food consumed at home, as the result was lower than other price surveys suggested.

  • Evening Edition – Argentine Central bank looks comfortable with new monetary framework  

    Guido Sandleris stated the balance-sheet of the central bank is sound.

  • Electoral polls to take center stage in Brazil today  

    The most recent poll, conducted by Datafolha, indicated Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) with 59% of valid votes and Fernando Haddad (PT) with 41%

  • Evening Edition – Datafolha shows Jair Bolsonaro with 59% of valid votes; Haddad has 41%  

    Jair Bolsonaro is rejected by 41% of the electorate, and Fernando Haddad by 54%.

  • Tightening cycle begins in Chile  

    We see the policy rate at 3.75% by the end of 2019 with the next rate hike coming in 1Q19

  • Evening Edition – Chilean Monetary Policy Meeting: We have lift-off  

    The rate hike is coherent with the central bank’s messaging since the September

  • Brazil’s Monthly GDP expands in August  

    Brazilian economy has been improving since June, albeit at a weak pace

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IBC-BR Activity Index advances in August  

    The index is now 1.3% higher than pre-stoppage levels (February-April average).

  • New poll shows Bolsonaro with 59% and Haddad with 41% of the valid votes  

    Jair Bolsonaro is rejected by 35% of the electorate, and Fernando Haddad by 47%

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Monthly GDP expands in August  

    Compared to the year-earlier period, it climbed 2.7%.

  • Retail sales above expected in Brazil  

    In our view, the result benefitted from withdrawals from accounts held under PIS/PASEP programs

  • Evening Edition – Ibope shows Bolsonaro with 59% and Haddad 41% of the valid votes  

    In the previous Ibope poll, conducted before the first round, Jair Bolsonaro had 52% (45% of total votes) and Fernando Haddad 48% (41%).

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales above expected in Brazil  

    In our view, the result benefitted from withdrawals from accounts held under PIS/PASEP programs.

  • New poll shows Bolsonaro leading the second round  

    The simulation shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning with 58% of the valid votes, against Fernando Haddad (PT) with 42%

  • Evening Edition – Datafolha shows Jair Bolsonaro leading the second round  

    The simulation shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning with 58% of the valid votes, against Fernando Haddad (PT) with 42%.

  • Mexican inflation increased with core around the target  

    Inflation increased 0.42% month-over-month, below our forecast of 0.48% and slightly above market expectations of 0.41%

  • Evening Edition – Mexican inflation increased with core prices around the target  

    Inflation increased 0.42% month-over-month, below our forecast of 0.48% and slightly above market expectations of 0.41%.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    Overall, inflationary pressures remain controlled with the core measure recording a more moderate 0.2pp rise to a still low 2.1%

  • Evening Edition – Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) received 46% of valid votes in first-round  

    The gap between the two candidates in the first round was 17pp and the rejection rate of both appeared at similar levels in recent polls.

  • Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) received 46% of valid votes in first-round  

    The gap between the two candidates in the first round was 17pp

  • New polls show Jair Bolsonaro stronger in the first round  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad (44% to 43%, respectively)

  • Evening Edition – All Eyes on the Election on Sunday  

    According to the latest Datafolha poll, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the presidential race with 35% of voting intentions

  • Evening Edition – Mexican Central Bank leaves the policy rate unchanged, but adopts cautious tone  

    However, one board member voted for a 25-bp increase.

  • New poll shows Bolsonaro and Haddad stronger in the first round  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad (41% to 43%, respectively)

  • Evening Edition – New poll shows Bolsonaro and Haddad stronger in the first round  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad (41% to 43%, respectively).

  • New poll shows Bolsonaro stronger; Haddad's rejection rate increases  

    Fernando Haddad's rejection rate increased to 41%

  • Evening Edition – New polls show Jair Bolsonaro stronger in the second round  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad

  • New polls show Jair Bolsonaro stronger in the second round  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad

  • Polls show Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad leading the presidential race  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro losing to Fernando Haddad

  • Evening Edition – Polls show Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad leading the presidential race  

    Second round simulations show Jair Bolsonaro losing to Fernando Haddad.

  • Brazilian Central Bank’s Inflation Report: a close call  

    We expect the Copom to keep the base rate at 6.50% pa in October, but we will closely monitor the evolution of the exchange rate and inflation expectations

  • Evening Edition – Argentine central bank presents new framework for monetary policy  

    The growth rate of the monetary base (monthly average) will be set at zero from October 2018 to June 2019.

  • IMF enlarges financing package to Argentina and agrees on a new monetary policy framework  

    The new package comes after the government announced more ambitious fiscal deficit targets

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Central Bank’s Inflation Report: a close call  

    According to the BCB, the forecasts were affected by the BRL depreciation in the third quarter of 2018.

  • New Change at Argentina’s Central Bank amid union protest  

    A possible explanation behind Caputo’s resignation could be related to disagreements with the IMF on exchange-rate interventions

  • Evening Edition – IMF enlarges Argentina's financing package and agrees on monetary policy framework  

    Argentina is eligible to receive USD 13.4 billion during the remaining months of 2018 and USD 22.8 billion in 2019.

  • Copom minutes: ready to act  

    For now we expect the Copom to leave rates unchanged at 6.5% in October, but we do recognize that the scenario is changeable

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Copom Minutes show Central Bank ready to act  

    A gradual Selic rate hike would follow from additional worsening of inflation expectations and/or of the balance of risks thereto.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s current account deficit stabilizes at the margin  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 16 billion or 0.8% of GDP.

  • Lower than expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in September is 0.46%, with the year-over-year rate accelerating to 4.51%.

  • Mexican domestic demand weakened in 2Q18  

    We expect economic activity to grow 2.0% in 2018

  • Evening Edition – Lower than expected inflation in Brazil  

    Year-to-date inflation reached 3.23%, while the year-over-year change decelerated to 4.28%.

  • Evening Edition – Mexican domestic demand weakened in 2Q18  

    The 2Q18 figure was boosted by a positive calendar effect (Easter Holidays).

  • New poll consolidates Fernando Haddad (PT) in the second place in Brazil´s presidential race  

    Second round simulations shows Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with all candidates

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Copom: stable rates, for now  

    The statement does not commit to any move in October, but paves the way for one, in case it proves necessary.

  • New poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Second round simulations shows Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Ciro Gomes (36% vs 38%, respectively) and Fernando Haddad (39% vs 36%, respectively)

  • Evening Edition – Sluggish trade deficit adjustment in Colombia in July  

    The trade deficit came in at USD 557 million, closer to market consensus (USD 600 million forecast), than our USD 719 million estimate.

  • Evening Edition - Polls shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Second round scenarios show Jair Bolsonaro improving his voting intentions

  • Datafolha poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Second round simulations shows Jair Bolsonaro technically tied with Fernando Haddad, Marina Silva and Geraldo Alckmin, and losing to Ciro Gomes (38% to 45%)

  • Evening Edition – Itaú Unibanco's monthly GDP expands in July  

    Compared to the year-earlier period, it rose 1.6%.

  • Brazilian retail sales decline in July  

    Given the poor performance of recent months, the quarterly change slipped back to negative levels after 18 months of gains

  • Polls shows Bolsonaro leading Brazil’s presidential race  

    Both polls show the same result

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian retail sales decline in July  

    Compared to one year ago, core sales declined 1.0% and experienced the first negative reading under this metric in 16 months.

  • Evening Edition – Paraná Pesquisas shows Bolsonaro leading in Brazil  

    Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the presidential race with 27% of voting intentions, followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 12%.

  • Ibope shows Bolsonaro leading voting intentions in Brazil  

    The poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) with 26% of voting intentions (from 22% in the previous Ibope poll)

  • Evening Edition – Ibope poll shows Bolsonaro leading voting intentions in Brazil  

    The poll shows Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) with 26% of voting intentions (from 22% in the previous Ibope poll), followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT) with 11% (from 12%)

  • Datafolha shows Bolsonaro with 24% of voting intentions in Brazil  

    In this scenario, blanks, nulls and undecided voters dropped to 22% of the electorate, coming from 28% in the previous poll

  • Evening Edition – Inflation as expected in Chile and above forecasts in Mexico  

    Overall, inflationary pressures remained controlled, with headline inflation ticking down 0.1pp to 2.6% in Chile.

  • Brazilian IPCA shows deflation in August  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in September is a 0.40% hike that would push the year-over-year rate up to 4.4%

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian IPCA shows deflation in August  

    Year-to-date, the IPCA went up 2.85% and the year-over-year change decelerated to 4.19%.

  • According to Ibope, Jair Bolsonaro leads the presidential race in Brazil  

    This is the first poll  since the recent decision by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) to bar Lula from the election

  • Chilean Monetary Policy Meeting: On course to hike?  

    Our baseline scenario relies on the expectation that trade tensions will ease in the months ahead

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Growth in the month was 3.3%, above the Bloomberg market consensus of 2.9% and our 2.5% call.

  • A more challenging fiscal deficit target in Argentina  

    At current real exchange rate levels, the net public debt will likely end this year at 56% of GDP.

  • Evening Edition – Chilean Monetary Policy Meeting: On course to hike?  

    The board is alert to mounting external risks, but remains upbeat with the domestic economic outlook.

  • Brazilian court bars Lula from presidential election  

    The electoral court will give the PT ten days to present a substitute candidate

  • Evening Edition – A more challenging fiscal deficit target in Argentina  

    The treasury will target a primary fiscal deficit of 0% of GDP in 2019.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP rises 0.2% in 2Q18 as underlying growth loses momentum  

    On a year-over-year basis, GDP growth has been decelerating.

  • Fighting market turmoil in Argentina  

    The still turbulent external environment (including uncertainty over reforms in Brazil) is also a key obstacle for stabilization

  • In Brazil, Electoral court may review Lula's candidacy tomorrow, 31 Aug  

    The court may not review his candidacy tomorrow, but still rule on whether he can or not ask for votes in the television and radio propaganda

  • Evening Edition – Fighting market turmoil in Argentina  

    The policy rate (the 7-day Leliq, a bill issued by the monetary authority) is now at 60%.

  • Evening Edition – Delinquency in Brazilian corporate loans falls sharply in July  

    The daily average of new loans rose 0.5% mom/sa in real terms for the non-earmarked segment and increased 2.7% for earmarked loans.

  • Brazil’s industrial confidence falls further in August  

    The result reinforces the outlook of weak underlying growth shown by a broad set of economic indicators

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s industrial confidence falls further in August  

    The result reinforces the outlook of weak underlying growth shown by a broad set of economic indicators.

  • President Trump announced a trade deal with Mexico, Canada may join later  

    Trump said that they will terminate NAFTA deal and replace it with the one agreed with Mexico

  • Current account deficit slightly deteriorated in Mexico in the 2Q18  

    The worsening in the current account was accounted by a deterioration in the trade, services, and net income deficit

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian current account deficit reaches USD 4.4 billion in July  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 15 billion (or 0.8% of GDP).

  • Brazil’s IPCA-15 rose 0.13% in August, slightly above the median of market expectations  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in August is -0.02%

  • Evening Edition – Current account deficit deteriorated slightly in Mexico in the 2Q18  

    The worsening in the current account was accounted by a deterioration in the trade, services and net income deficits.

  • Formal job creation continues to decelerate in Brazil  

    The next readings may continue to be negatively influenced by tighter financial conditions and higher economic uncertainty

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian inflation decelerating after impact from truckers’ stoppage  

    Year-to-date inflation reached 3.14%, while the year-over-year change decelerated to 4.30%.

  • Evening Edition – Formal job creation continues to decelerate in Brazil  

    The sectorial breakdown show gains in the service and agricultural sectors, while commerce industry receded at the margin.

  • Poll shows Bolsonaro with 20% of voting intentions in the scenario without Lula  

    In the scenario without Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the presidential race with 20% of voting intentions (coming from 17% in the previous Ibope poll)

  • Evening Edition – Argentine fiscal deficit continued to narrow in July  

    The treasury reported a primary deficit of ARS 14.3 billion in July.

  • Evening Edition – Chilean investment recovery continues in 2Q18  

    GDP increased 5.3% year over year, just above the 5.2% derived from the monthly GDP proxy (Imacec).

  • Electoral polls on the spotlight in Brazil  

    Two nationwide polls are expected to be released today

  • Mexican Monetary Policy Minutes signals rate on-hold, but still mindful of risks  

    In our view, a successful renegotiation of NAFTA would likely mean an end to the tightening cycle.

  • Evening Edition – Electoral polls on the spotlight  

    The main highlights will come from the political side next week.

  • Evening Edition – Mexican Monetary Policy Minutes signals rate on-hold, but still mindful of risks  

    The minutes reaffirmed that the board sees current inflationary pressures as transitory (restricted to non-core prices).

  • Brazil’s IBC-Br Activity Index normalizes in June  

    The result reflects the normalization on major monthly indicators

  • Trade deficit correction slows in Colombia  

    The continued narrowing is explained by the energy balance improvement

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IBC-Br Activity Index normalizes in June  

    The result reflects the normalization on major monthly indicators.

  • New measures to deal with new shock in Argentina  

    In our view, recent measures will only be sufficient to stabilize the peso and other asset prices if strains on external financial markets diminish

  • Evening Edition – Trade deficit correction slows in Colombia in 2Q18  

    The USD 719 million trade deficit in June was smaller than Bloomberg market consensus' of USD 800 million and our USD 917 million forecast.

  • No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in Brazil’s retail sales in June  

    Our estimate for core retail sales is a 0.5% increase.

  • Evening Edition – New measures to deal with new shock in Argentina  

    The policy rate (the 7-day Leliq, a bill issued by the monetary authority) is now at 45%.

  • Evening Edition – No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in Brazilian retail sales in June  

    Broad retail sales advanced 2.5% mom/sa, topping the median of market expectations (2.1%) and our call (1.6%).

  • Transitory factors lift Mexican inflation in July  

    We expect inflation to decrease to 4.0% by the end of this year

  • Brazil’s IPCA rises above median of market expectations in July  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in August is a 0.03% move that would push the year-over-year rate down to 4.32%

  • Evening Edition – Transitory factors lift Mexican inflation in July  

    Headline inflation came in at 4.81 year-over-year in July, while core inflation remained practically unchanged

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IPCA rises above median of market expectations in July  

    Inflation decelerated sharply from 1.26% in June, showing the waning impact of the cargo transportation stoppages and the red mode in the tariff flag system

  • A New policy rate in Argentina, with no room to cut it  

    We do not see room for interest-rate cuts before the market stabilizes more clearly

  • Evening Edition – New policy rate in Argentina, yet with no room to cut it  

    The rate was set at 40%, the same level of the previous policy rate (center of the 7-day repo corridor).

  • Recovery of non-mining activity in Chile in 2Q18  

    The annual Imacec (monthly GDP proxy) variation was 4.9%, slightly below Bloomberg market consensus’ (5.3%) and our forecast (5.2%)

  • Evening Edition – Recovery of non-mining activity consolidates in Chile in 2Q18  

    The annual Imacec (monthly GDP proxy) variation was 4.9%, slightly below Bloomberg market consensus’ (5.3%) and our forecast (5.2%).

  • Poll indicates higher voting intentions for Alckmin in São Paulo  

    This is the first time that Alckmin leads a poll in the 2018's elections

  • Mexican Central Bank leaves the policy rate unchanged, amid a stronger peso  

    In our view, a successful renegotiation of NAFTA would likely mean an end to the tightening cycle

  • Evening Edition – No rate moves in sight in Colombia  

    The board seems comfortable with the current policy rate level, signaling that under current conditions there is no need for additional cut

  • No rate move for the time being in Brazil  

    We will learn more about the rationale for this decision with the release of the Copom minutes on Tuesday

  • Evening Edition – Mexican Central Bank leaves the policy rate unchanged, amid a stronger peso  

    In the statement, the central bank highlighted that recent upside surprises of inflation were due to transitory factors.

  • Evening Edition – Copom: two way risks, but no rate move for the time being in Brazil  

    The authorities undertook the usual factual updates, noting the effects of the transportation sector disruption on activity and inflation.

  • Unemployment rate is still high in Brazil  

    Our forecasts for the average unemployment rate are 12.4% in 2018 and 12.2% in 2019

  • Brazil registers primary deficit of BRL 13.5 billion in June  

    Keeping this favorable scenario consistently depends strictly on the approval of reforms

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate is still high in Brazil  

    The unemployment rate is 0.6 p.p. lower than in June 2017.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil registers primary deficit of BRL 13.5 billion in June  

    The general government’s gross debt went up to 77.2% of GDP in June.

  • No surprise as rates remain steady in Colombia  

    We do not see the board in any haste to modify the policy rate

  • Brazil registers USD 435 million current account surplus in June  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 13.9 billion (0.7% of GDP)

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Central Government’s deficit came in a little worse than expected in Jun  

    Compared to our forecasts, revenues came a little lower and expenditures mostly in line the expected.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil registers USD 435 million current account surplus in June  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to $13.9 billion, or 0.7% of GDP.

  • Argentine trade deficit narrowed significantly in June  

    The deficit was in line with our forecast (USD 400 million) and below market expectations (USD 550 million, according to Bloomberg)

  • Evening Edition – Argentine trade deficit narrowed significantly in June  

    The trade balance showed a deficit of USD 382 million, almost half the amount registered in the same month of last year (USD 750 million).

  • Activity in Argentina deteriorates sharply in May  

    We see downside risk to our 0.5% growth forecast for this year

  • Evening Edition – Activity in Argentina deteriorates sharply in May  

    Activity dropped by 5.8% YoY in May (vs. market expectations of a 1.3% contraction and our forecast of a 1.0% decline).

  • Mexican economy lost pace in May dragged by industrial sectors  

    The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 2.2% year-over-year in May, below our forecast (2.8%) and in line with median market expectations

  • Evening Edition – Mexican economy lost pace in May dragged by industrial sectors  

    The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 2.2% year-over-year in May, below our forecast (2.8%) and in line with median market expectations.

  • Lower than expected Inflation and formal job creation in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in July is an increase of 0.28%

  • Evening Edition – Inflation and formal job creation lower than expected in Brazil  

    Regulated prices were behind the biggest deviation from our forecast.

  • Brazilian local news indicate the “big-center” will build an alliance with PSDB  

    If confirmed, the allieance will take the share of TV and Radio campaign time of the PSDB alliance to almost 50%.

  • Argentina’s monetary policy report on focus  

    We expect the report to shed light on the monetary policy framework

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit remained unchanged in Argentina but met target agreed upon with IMF  

    The nominal deficit (now including the interest bill) fell to 5.3% in June.

  • Evening Edition – New poll shows Bolsonaro with 22% and Alckmin with 19% in São Paulo  

    The results indicate that voting intentions between the two pre-candidates is broadly unchanged, with Bolsonaro’s lead still at around 3p.p.

  • In Brazil, Paraná Pesquisas poll shows Bolsonaro with 22% and Alckmin with 19% in the state of SP  

    Marina Silva’s voting intentions seem to be declining a bit, now at 10%

  • Brazil’s IBC-BR Activity Index fell 3.3% in May  

    The result reflects the widespread decline as a result of truckers’ stoppages in the last two weeks of May

  • Evening Edition – Higher inflation in June in Argentina due to a weaker currency  

    CPI rose 3.7% from May to June, slightly above the Bloomberg market consensus forecast of 3.6%.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s IBC Activity Index fell 3.3% in May  

    The result reflects the widespread decline observed in industrial production, retail sales and services real revenues.

  • Brazilian services sector’s real revenue fell 3.8% mom/sa in May  

    The breakdown shows mom/sa declines in 9 out of 12 sectors

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian service sector’s real revenue fell 3.8% mom/sa in May  

    The breakdown shows mom/sa declines in 9 out of 12 sectors, with transportation as the highlight.

  • Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May in Brazil  

    Eight out of 10 broad retail components posted seasonally-adjusted monthly drops in May

  • Brazilian economic activity data rebounding in June  

    The dynamics has been heavily affected by the truckers’ stoppage between May 21-29

  • Evening Edition – Truckers’ stoppages lead to falling retail sales in May in Brazil  

    Broad retail sales dropped 4.9% mom/sa, missing the median of market expectations and our call (both at -3.2%).

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian economic activity data remains positive in June  

    The dynamics has been heavily affected by the truckers’ stoppage between May 21-29.

  • Argentina’s Central bank changes monetary policy framework  

    We do not see room for interest-rate cuts before the market stabilizes more clearly

  • Evening Edition – Traffic of heavy vehicles rebounds in June in Brazil  

    The strong growth suggests some payback from the weakness in May.

  • Policy rate to remain stable at 4.25% in Colombia  

    The decision was in line with comments by some board members prior to the meeting that pointed to the limited room for additional rate cuts

  • Evening Edition - The consumer price index IPCA climbed 1.26% in Brazil  

    The consumer price index IPCA climbed 1.26% in June, below our estimate (1.35%) and near the median of market expectations (1.28%)

  • Truckers’ stoppage significantly affected industrial production in Brazil  

    The sharp decline was caused by the trucker’ stoppage, which affected supply and production chains in the final two weeks of the month

  • Evening Edition - Doors open both for further hikes and policy rate maintenance in Mexico  

    The minutes suggest the next decision is more open

  • Evening Edition - Truckers’ stoppage affected industrial production in Brazil  

    Compared to May 2017, the indicator was down by 6.7%

  • Brazil’s trade surplus reached $5.9 billion in June  

    Over 12 months, the trade surplus shrank to $61 billion

  • Brazil’s GDP growth expectations remained stable for 2018  

    The median GDP growth expectations remained stable for 2018 after eight consecutive weekly declines

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s trade surplus reached $5.9 billion in June  

    The result came in below our estimate ($6.2 billion) and market’s consensus ($6.6 billion)

  • AMLO wins Mexico’s presidential elections by a wide margin  

    Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s presidential elections

  • Evening Edition – AMLO wins Mexico’s presidential elections by a wide margin  

    The anti-establishment candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s presidential elections

  • The presidential race remains wide open in Brazil  

    The level of blank/null/undecided voters is significantly higher

  • Evening Edition – Colombia's central bank kept the monetary policy rate at 4.25  

    In its fourth monetary policy meeting of the year, the central bank of Colombia kept the monetary policy rate at 4.25

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian central government registers higher than expected deficit in May  

    We continue to believe that the government will meet its primary-deficit target for the year (2.2% of GDP or BRL 161 billion).

  • New non-earmarked loans and delinquency rate fell in May in Brazil  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans declined 1.0% mom/sa in real terms and delinquency fell 0.1 p.p. to 3.2%

  • Evening Edition – New non-earmarked loans and delinquency fell in May in Brazil  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency fell 0.1 p.p. to 3.2%.

  • Brazil’s National Monetary Council sets inflation target for 2021 at 3.75%  

    The National Monetary Council (CMN) announced that the inflation target for 2021 is 3.75

  • Brazil registers USD 729 million current account surplus in May  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 13 billion or 0.65% of GDP.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s National Monetary Council sets inflation target for 2021 at 3.75%  

    The number is down from 4.5% this year, 4.25% in 2019 and 4.0% in 2020.

  • Mexican momentum of activity weakened a bit in April  

    After a robust performance in 1Q18, the economy weakened somewhat in April.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil registers USD 729 million current account surplus in May  

    Over 12 months, the current account deficit widened to USD 13 billion or 0.65% of GDP.

  • Evening Edition – Mexican momentum of activity weakened a bit in April  

    The apparently high print, nevertheless, is inflated by a big calendar effect.

  • Not the last hike of the cycle in Mexico  

    Mexico’s central bank increased its policy rate by 25-bps as expected by us and the majority of market analysts

  • Evening Edition – Not the last hike of the cycle in Mexico  

    In justifying the decision, the central bank mentioned a deterioration of the balance of risks for inflation.

  • Copom keeps rate unchanged in Brazil  

    In the reference scenario, which assumes stable Selic and FX rate, inflation forecasts are set at 4.2% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.

  • Argentine GDP growth to decelerate further, as fiscal consolidation continues  

    Growth was consistent with market expectations (according to the Bloomberg survey) and with the official monthly GDP proxy (EMAE).


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