Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Stronger-than-expected monthly GDP proxy in Argentina  

    We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0%

  • Another 25-bp rate cut in Colombia  

    We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected official monthly GDP proxy in Argentina  

    We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0% from -12.7%

  • Evening Edition – Another 25-bp rate cut in Colombia  

    A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended

  • 25-bp rate cut in Mexico, as expected  

    We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020

  • Higher mid-month inflation in Brazil amid food prices pressure  

    We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Evening Edition – 25-bp rate cut in Mexico, as expected  

    We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020

  • Evening Edition – Higher mid-month inflation in Brazil amid food prices pressure  

    We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Argentina’s GDP collapsed in 2Q20 amid strict lockdowns  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20

  • Domestic demand collapses in Mexico  

    We expect GDP to fall by 10.7%.

  • Evening Edition – Argentina’s GDP collapsed in 2Q20 amid strict lockdowns   

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20

  • Evening Edition – Domestic demand collapses in Mexico  

    Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19

  • Activity continues to improve in Colombia  

    Overall, we expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year)

  • Evening Edition – Activity improves slightly in Colombia  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).

  • Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in Colombia  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • Stable rates in Brazil  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Evening Edition – Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in Colombia  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • Argentina’s central bank further tightens controls on foreign exchange purchases  

    In our view, exchange rate controls will undermine the economic recovery following the lifting of social distancing measures

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Brazil  

    The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.

  • Evening Edition – We now see higher 2020 inflation in Brazil, due to food price increases  

    We revised our annual inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.0% after incorporating additional pressure on food costs

  • Underwhelming activity indicators in Colombia  

    The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)

  • Weaker-than-expected service sector activity in Brazil  

    The data continue to indicate that the economy is recovering

  • Evening Edition – Underwhelming activity indicators in Colombia  

    The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    In all, this print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected service sector activity in Brazil  

    The main negative surprises relative to our estimates were transportation and information & communication services

  • Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    In all, today’s print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP

  • Evening Edition – Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November. We expect the IPCA to rise 2.0% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Unsurprising low inflation in Chile  

    An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year).

  • Internal demand starts to recover in Mexico  

    We forecast a 10.7% decline for GDP in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Unsurprising low inflation in Chile  

    An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year)

  • LatAm Talking Points – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week

  • Evening Edition – Poor wage bill dynamics endure in Chile  

    Overall, the real wage bill reached a new historical minimum on record

  • Central Bank indicates better prospects for Chile’s economy  

    The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week

  • Slightly weaker-than-expected 2Q20 GDP in Brazil  

    We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year

  • Evening Edition – Central Bank indicates better prospects for Chile’s economy  

    The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021

  • Evening Edition – Slightly-weaker-than-expected 2Q20 GDP in Brazil  

    We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year

  • Colombian Central Bank cut rates by 25bps  

    We see rates remaining at 2.0% throughout 2021

  • Poor labor market dynamics endure in Chile  

    Overall, an average unemployment rate of 10.4% is estimated, up from 7.2% last year

  • Banxico minutes indicate further easing contingent on data  

    Our base case is for Banxico to deliver a 25-bp rate cut in the next monetary policy meeting (September 24)

  • Evening Edition – Poor labor market dynamics endure in Chile  

    The rate came in between market consensus of 12.8% and our 13.5% call

  • Mexico’s 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but started to recover in June  

    We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%

  • Moody’s lowers Chile’s outlook to negative  

    Moody’s rating agency affirmed the sovereign credit rating for Chile (‘A1’), but revised the outlook from stable to negative

  • Evening Edition – Mexico’s 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but started to recover in June  

    We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020

  • Evening Edition – Moody’s lowers Chile’s outlook to negative  

    S&P rates Chile at a comparable level, while Fitch is one notch lower at ‘A’

  • Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    The improvement was widespread across sectors

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected formal job creation in Brazil  

    CAGED data provide a better labor market picture than other surveys, such as the PNAD Covid

  • Brazilian Lower House maintains veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    With this decision, the government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn

  • Brazilian Senate overturns veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    The government is working to reach an agreement to avoid a final overturn

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House maintains veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    The government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn, according to calculations from the Ministry of Economy

  • Activity slumps in Chile  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate overturns veto on public servants’ wage increases  

    The veto will now head to the Lower House, where it will require 257 votes to be overturned

  • Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Peru  

    We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Historic demand slump in Chile  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • Record GDP drop in Colombia  

    There was a historic drop at the margin, but dynamics improved within the quarter

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Peru  

    We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020

  • Evening Edition – Record GDP drop in Colombia  

    The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (+3.3% last year)

  • LatAm Talking Points – 50-bp rate cut in Mexico  

    We expect the central bank to slow down the pace of rate cuts, delivering 25-bp reductions in each of the next two meetings

  • Evening Edition – 50-bp rate cut in Mexico  

    We maintain our forecast for the policy rate at 4.0% before the year ends

  • Solid retail sales recovery in Brazil  

    This reflects the strong rebound in household spending on goods

  • Two secretaries announce their departure from Brazilian government  

    Both secretaries were in office since the beginning of president Bolsonaro’s administration

  • Evening Edition – Solid retail sales recovery in Brazil  

    This reflects the strong rebound in household spending on goods

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes indicate stable rates in Brazil  

    We expect the Selic to end the year at its current level of 2.00% pa

  • Traffic of heavy vehicles points to a continued industry recovery in Brazil  

    This result provides another sign that industrial production continues to recover rapidly from the strong drops observed in March and April

  • Evening Edition – Traffic of heavy vehicles points to a continued industry recovery in Brazil  

    This reinforces the view that specific service sectors (not all of the service sector) are displaying a slower recovery from the crisis

  • Inflation in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The next IPCA readings tend to sustain the benign dynamics

  • Falling participation rate prevents higher unemployment rate in Brazil  

    Assuming the participation rate constant at its February level, unemployment rate increased to 22.4% from 19.7% according to our estimates

  • Copom’s statement points to a fiscally-dependent stance  

    We will learn more about the rationale behind yesterday´s decision and the authorities´ strategy with the release of the meeting minutes

  • Evening Edition – Falling participation rate prevents higher unemployment rate in Brazil  

    Assuming the participation rate constant at its February level, unemployment rate increased to 22.4% from 19.7% according to our estimates

  • Evening Edition – Copom’s statement points to a fiscally-dependent stance  

    We will learn more about the rationale behind today´s decision and the authorities´ strategy with the release of the meeting minutes

  • Brazil´s industrial production posts larger-than-expected gains in June  

    Going forward, we expect GDP to recover from Q3 onwards and continue to forecast a 4.5% GDP drop this year

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian industrial production posts large gains in June  

    Going forward, we expect GDP to recover from Q3 onwards and continue to forecast a 4.5% GDP drop this year

  • Argentina reaches a deal on debt restructuring  

    Argentina and the main creditor groups reached an agreement on debt restructuring

  • Another 25-bp cut in Colombia  

    As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery process and inflation unfold

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected economic activity numbers in Chile  

    The economy stopped falling at the margin for the first time since February

  • Evening Edition – Another 25-bp cut in Colombia  

    As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery process and inflation unfold

  • Labor market deteriorates in Colombia  

    As the economy slumps, the average unemployment rate for 2020 will likely reach 17.0%, well above the 10.5% recorded in 2019

  • Households lead June’s credit expansion in Brazil  

    After two monthly declines, new non-earmarked loans expanded 1.8% mom/sa in real terms

  • Evening Edition – Labor market deteriorates in Colombia  

    As the economy slumps, the average unemployment rate for 2020 will likely reach 17.0%, well above the 10.5% recorded in 2019

  • Milder-than-expected formal job destruction in Brazil  

    June’s figures reinforce our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards

  • Evening Edition – Households lead June’s credit expansion in Brazil  

    In the earmarked segment, the average interest rate slid to 7.0% from 7.5%, declining for non-financial corporations while remaining stable for households

  • Evening Edition – Better-than-expected payroll in Brazil  

    June’s figures reinforce our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards

  • Stronger-than-expected trade balance surplus in Mexico  

    We expect external sales to recover at a faster pace than imports due to a better performance of domestic demand in the U.S. relative to Mexico

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected trade balance surplus in Mexico  

    The monthly trade balance posted a surplus of USD 5.6 billion in June,

  • Inflation surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    We expect the IPCA to advance 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    We expect the IPCA to advance 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Pension withdrawal bill to be signed into law in Chile  

    President Piñera will sign it into law today

  • Pension withdrawal plan advances in Chile  

    Given the bill departs from the version voted in the house of representatives, it now returns the lower chamber of congress for analysis

  • Evening Edition – Pension withdrawal bill ready to be signed into law in Chile  

    The bill appears set to become law as the 2/3 threshold achieved in both chambers renders the presidential veto impotent

  • Brazil’s government presents tax reform proposal  

    Yesterday, Minister Paulo Guedes unveiled to Congress the first phase of the government’s tax reform project

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    We expect a recovery for the second half of the year as distancing measures are lifted

  • Pension fund withdrawal initiative advances in Chile  

    The initiative faces a challenging road ahead as Wednesday‘s discussion of the bill on the floor will see a likely debated item-by-item vote

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s government presents tax reform proposal to Congress  

    Minister Paulo Guedes unveiled to Congress today the first phase of the government’s tax reform project

  • Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Colombia  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).

  • Evening Edition – Government’s tax reform proposal to be presented tomorrow  

    The proposal will aim to unify the PIS/Cofins federal taxes into a single VAT

  • Confidence indicators continue to recover in Brazil  

    When compared to the period before the social distancing measures (Jan-Feb), the industrial sector registered the strongest recovery

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected economic activity in Colombia  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).

  • Pension fund withdrawal initiative advances in Chile  

    The bill now head to Senate

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators continue to recover in Brazil  

    The report shows that the confidence level continued to increase in the month, with the aggregate business confidence level increasing 7.3 p.p.

  • Evening Edition – Pension fund withdrawal initiative advances in Chile  

    The bill now heads to Senate

  • Middle-class support measures enhanced in Chile  

    The president emphasized the need to advance with a profound reform of the country’s pension system

  • Evening Edition – Middle-class support measures enhanced in Chile  

    The president emphasized the need to advance with a profound reform of the country’s pension system

  • Itaú Monthly GDP proxy improves in Brazil  

    Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.

  • Evening Edition – Itaú Monthly GDP proxy improves in Brazil  

    Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Peruvian Central Bank keeps its policy rate at 0.25%  

    The widening of slack conditions and downside risks to inflation support the BCRP keeping an expansive monetary policy stance

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales growth in Brazil  

    In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    The upside surprise came mainly from core tradables non-food prices.

  • Economic activity partially rebounds in Argentina  

    Manufacturing rebounded by 9.0% mom/sa in May, helped by the easing of lockdown measures in the month

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales growth in Brazil  

    In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity rebounds in Argentina  

    The recovery followed a 15.5% mom/sa drop in the previous month, during the strict lockdown period

  • Internal demand slumps in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    A downbeat outlook and moderating inflation expectations point at subdued inflationary pressures, supporting our call for additional monetary stimulus

  • Evening Edition – Internal demand slumps in Mexico  

    We expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted

  • Evening Edition – Colombian exports remained weak in May  

    Going forward, low terms-of-trade and slowing global activity means Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist

  • Industrial production shows signs of recovery in Brazil  

    Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production shows signs of recovery in Brazil  

    Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels

  • Steeper activity slowdown in Chile  

    As a result, the economic contraction this year would be worse than the 4.5% drop outlined in our most recent scenario

  • Milder-than-expected labor market contraction in Brazil  

    The loss was widespread among the main sectors, with the service sector taking the biggest hit

  • Monthly GDP proxy deteriorates in Mexico  

    In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020

  • Evening Edition – Milder-than-expected labor market contraction in Brazil  

    This reinforces our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP proxy deteriorates in Mexico  

    In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020

  • Banxico cuts reference rate by 50bps  

    The still cautious tone of the Board over risks surrounding inflation means that rate cuts larger than 50-bps are unlikely

  • Brazilian Senate approves sanitation reform  

    The bill establishes mechanisms to attract private investment in the sector

  • Copom minutes indicate caution ahead  

    We expect the Selic to end the year at its current level, 2.25% pa

  • Itaú monthly GDP proxy drops in Brazil  

    Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines

  • Domestic demand deteriorates in Mexico  

    We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%

  • Evening Edition – Itaú monthly GDP proxy drops in Brazil  

    Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines

  • Activity falls in Colombia amid lockdown measures  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year but risks lean to a deeper fall. In this context, we see room for additional monetary stimulus ahead

  • Evening Edition – Domestic demand deteriorates in Mexico  

    We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%

  • Copom leaves the door slightly ajar to further easing  

    We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25% pa

  • Evening Edition – Copom leaves the door slightly ajar to further easing  

    We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25%pa.

  • Retail sales decline by less than expected in Brazil  

    Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April, and are starting to recover in May and June

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decline by less than expected in Brazil  

    Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April

  • Activity slumps in Colombia amid lockdown restrictions  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year)

  • Industrial production falls sharply in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%

  • Evening Edition – Activity slumps in Colombia amid lockdown restrictions  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year), but risks tilt to a deeper decline amid social-distancing measures

  • Inflation declines in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production falls sharply in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%

  • Evening Edition – Inflation declines in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the end of this year

  • Large trade surplus in Chile  

    Going forward, we see the current account balanced this year, from a 3.9% deficit in 2019

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the close of this year

  • Significant disinflation in Colombia  

    This result is consistent with our call for additional monetary stimulus ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation falls amid labor market loosening in Chile  

    Weakened demand, along with still low oil prices and some CLP appreciation, will likely keep inflation below the target this year

  • Manufacturing and construction activity plummeted in Argentina  

    The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic

  • Evening Edition – Manufacturing and construction activity plummeted in Argentina  

    The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic

  • Vehicle sales increase in Brazil, but remain at very depressed levels  

    Vehicle sales remain very depressed levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively

  • Chilean GDP proxy falls 14% in April  

    Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • Evening Edition – Vehicle sales increase in Brazil, but remain at low levels  

    Vehicle sales remain at historically low levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively

  • Brazilian GDP fell 1.5% in 1Q20, driven by initial effects of the Covid-19 outbreak  

    We expect the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period

  • Evening Edition – Chilean GDP proxy falls 14% in April  

    Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP fell 1.5% in 1Q20, driven by initial effects of the outbreak  

    We forecast the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period

  • Banxico minutes provide no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    Our base scenario is for Banxico continuing to cut its policy rate in 50-bp cuts (until it reaches 4.00%)

  • President Bolsonaro sanctions financial aid for states and municipalities  

    With the veto, the expected savings with the salary freeze returned to its original amount of BRL 130bn.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes provide no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% by the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Sharp formal job destruction amid the pandemic in Brazil  

    Since January the publication of CAGED was suspended by de Ministry of Economy due to methodological changes

  • Lower-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    We expect deflation of 0.42% in May and a 0.19% increase in June. For 2020, we expect the IPCA to advance 2.0% and 3.0% in 2021

  • Construction confidence increases in Brazil, but remains at a very low level  

    This result was slightly better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago

  • Central bank minutes show that additional stimulus is likely in Chile  

    We expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators advance in Brazil, but remain at low levels  

    In spite of the positive results registered in May, both consumer and retail confidence indexes remain at a very weak level

  • Evening Edition – Minutes show that additional stimulus is likely in Chile  

    As the economy is in the midst of its most challenging period, we expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks

  • Argentina to default on its external debt  

    Argentina extended the deadline on its debt offer to June 2 from May 22 while negotiations with creditors continue

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence improves slightly in Brazil, but remains at a weak level  

    This result was better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV last week, where the industrial confidence pointed to a 1.2 drop

  • Activity declines sharply in Argentina, reflecting the beginning of the lockdown  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020

  • Real estate activity slumps in Chile  

    We expect the Chilean economy to contract 3.7% this year (+1.1% last year)

  • Evening Edition – Activity declines sharply in Argentina, reflecting the beginning of the lockdown  

    As a result, we forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020

  • Evening Edition – Real estate activity slumps in Chile  

    Recently, we have revised significantly our forecast for primary fiscal deficit for this year to 4.3% of GDP from 2.4%

  • GDP surprises to the upside in Chile but is set to fall ahead  

    Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response

  • Evening Edition – GDP surprises to the upside in Chile but is set to fall ahead  

    Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response

  • Confidence indicators bounce back in Brazil, but remain at very low levels  

    Despite the rebound, the confidence level is still low

  • Banxico cuts reference rate by 50bps  

    We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators increase in Brazil, but remain at a wea  

    The current level of the aggregate business confidence index is consistent with a 175k formal job loss, seasonally-adjusted

  • Retail sales decline sharply in Brazil  

    All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month

  • Retail sales decline sharply in Brazil  

    We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020

  • Copom minutes reinforce interest rate cut ahead, despite fiscal risks  

    We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decline sharply in Brazil  

    All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes reinforce 75-bp cut ahead, despite fiscal risks  

    We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting

  • Copom minutes in focus  

    We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin

  • Evening Edition – Growth expectations deteriorate further in Brazil  

    The median of 2020 GDP growth expectations fell for the 13th consecutive week

  • Stable rates in Peru  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin

  • Copom delivers a 75-bp cut  

    We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12

  • Evening Edition – Inflation declines sharply in Mexico  

    Looking ahead, we expect inflation at 2.9% this year

  • Evening Edition – Copom delivers a 75-bp cut  

    We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12

  • Industrial production declines sharply in Brazil  

    Data for March and April will be relevant to measure the magnitude of economic activity drop during social distancing

  • Activity declines sharply in Chile  

    With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged

  • Evening Edition – Activity declines sharply in Chile  

    With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged

  • Banrep cuts policy rate by 50bps  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • Evening Edition – Banrep cuts policy rate by 50bps  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • Monetary policy meeting in Colombia to take center stage  

    We expect another 50bp rate cut, to 3.25%

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence in Brazil confirms sharp drop in April  

    This result comes in line with last week’s preview (-39.5 p.p.), and with the special report published earlier this month (-39.0 p.p.)

  • Brazilian corporate loans jump in March  

    Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms

  • President Bolsonaro’s approval rate remains virtually stable  

    His rejection rate also remained roughly unchanged

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian corporate loans jump in March  

    Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms


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