Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.
Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June
We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
The widening of slack conditions and downside risks to inflation support the BCRP keeping an expansive monetary policy stance
In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.
The upside surprise came mainly from core tradables non-food prices.
Manufacturing rebounded by 9.0% mom/sa in May, helped by the easing of lockdown measures in the month
In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June
The recovery followed a 15.5% mom/sa drop in the previous month, during the strict lockdown period
Going forward, we expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted
A downbeat outlook and moderating inflation expectations point at subdued inflationary pressures, supporting our call for additional monetary stimulus
We expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted
Going forward, low terms-of-trade and slowing global activity means Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist
Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels
Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels
As a result, the economic contraction this year would be worse than the 4.5% drop outlined in our most recent scenario
The loss was widespread among the main sectors, with the service sector taking the biggest hit
In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020
This reinforces our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards
In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020
The still cautious tone of the Board over risks surrounding inflation means that rate cuts larger than 50-bps are unlikely
The bill establishes mechanisms to attract private investment in the sector
We expect the Selic to end the year at its current level, 2.25% pa
Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines
We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%
Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines
We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year but risks lean to a deeper fall. In this context, we see room for additional monetary stimulus ahead
We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%
We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25% pa
We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25%pa.
Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April, and are starting to recover in May and June
Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April
We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year)
Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%
We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year), but risks tilt to a deeper decline amid social-distancing measures
We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August
Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%
We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August
Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the end of this year
Going forward, we see the current account balanced this year, from a 3.9% deficit in 2019
Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the close of this year
This result is consistent with our call for additional monetary stimulus ahead.
Weakened demand, along with still low oil prices and some CLP appreciation, will likely keep inflation below the target this year
The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic
The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic
Vehicle sales remain very depressed levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively
Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year
Vehicle sales remain at historically low levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively
We expect the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period
Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year
We forecast the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period
Our base scenario is for Banxico continuing to cut its policy rate in 50-bp cuts (until it reaches 4.00%)
With the veto, the expected savings with the salary freeze returned to its original amount of BRL 130bn.
We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% by the end of 2020
Since January the publication of CAGED was suspended by de Ministry of Economy due to methodological changes
We expect deflation of 0.42% in May and a 0.19% increase in June. For 2020, we expect the IPCA to advance 2.0% and 3.0% in 2021
This result was slightly better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago
We expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks
In spite of the positive results registered in May, both consumer and retail confidence indexes remain at a very weak level
As the economy is in the midst of its most challenging period, we expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks
Argentina extended the deadline on its debt offer to June 2 from May 22 while negotiations with creditors continue
This result was better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV last week, where the industrial confidence pointed to a 1.2 drop
We forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020
We expect the Chilean economy to contract 3.7% this year (+1.1% last year)
As a result, we forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020
Recently, we have revised significantly our forecast for primary fiscal deficit for this year to 4.3% of GDP from 2.4%
Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response
Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response
Despite the rebound, the confidence level is still low
We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020
The current level of the aggregate business confidence index is consistent with a 175k formal job loss, seasonally-adjusted
All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month
We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020
We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting
All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month
We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting
We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today
In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin
The median of 2020 GDP growth expectations fell for the 13th consecutive week
We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020
In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin
We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12
Looking ahead, we expect inflation at 2.9% this year
We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12
Data for March and April will be relevant to measure the magnitude of economic activity drop during social distancing
With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged
With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged
Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%
Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%
We expect another 50bp rate cut, to 3.25%
This result comes in line with last week’s preview (-39.5 p.p.), and with the special report published earlier this month (-39.0 p.p.)
Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms
His rejection rate also remained roughly unchanged
Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms
In all, these figures come in line with those observed in the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago
In all, these figures come in line with those observed in the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago
We now expect inflation to end 2020 at 2.9% (before we estimated inflation at 3.2%)
The new minister has not been announced yet
We expect the economy to begin a slow normalization in 2H19
We expect Banxico to continue easing its monetary policy stance, reaching a rate of 4.50% before the end of 2020
We expect the economy to begin a slow normalization in 2H19
As the Senate made some changes, the bill will return to the Lower House
The median of 2020 GDP growth expectations fell for the 10th consecutive week
Given the scenario outlined by the board, we expect rates to be kept at their technical minimum throughout the year
As the Senate made some changes to the text, the proposal will return to the Lower House.
Speaker Davi Alcolumbre has announced that the second-round of voting will take place tomorrow
The Senators are currently voting the amendments to the bill
The aggregate business confidence index fell 27.6 p.p. to 53.7, the lowest level since the beginning of the series
The aggregate business confidence index fell 27.6 p.p. to 53.7, the lowest level since the beginning of the series
According to local media, the bill is not endorsed by the government and may be vetoed by the president if approved in the Senate
We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020
GDP growth expectations for 2020 receded to -1.96% (from -1.18%), reflecting the Covid-19 expected impacts on growth
The measures amount to USD 5 billion (close to 2% of GDP) and is complementary to the USD 11.7 billion package (close to 5% of GDP) released on March 17
For the whole year readings, we anticipate increases of 2.7% this year and 3.3% in 2021
The measures amount to USD 5 billion (close to 2% of GDP) and is complementary to the USD 11.7 billion package (close to 5% of GDP) released on March 17
These figures are related to February, before the strong negative impacts from the Coronavirus on economic activity
These figures are related to February, before the strong negative impacts from the Coronavirus on economic activity
The outlook revision reflects diminishing prospects for an upgrade over the coming year due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
The bill now heads to the Senate
We estimate that at the margin inflation accumulated (and annualized) in 1Q20 slowed to 2.6% from 3.4% in 4Q19
As this proposal is a constitutional amendment, it requires two rounds of voting in the Lower House, and then it will head to the Senate.
As this proposal is a constitutional amendment, it requires two rounds of voting in the Lower House, and then it will head to the Senate
Last night the government announced a provisional measure that authorizes companies to reduce their employees working hours with a proportional salary reduction
We expect rates to stay at this historically low level for the remainder of the year
The decision had the unanimous backing of the board and results in a 125bp rate adjustment over the last two weeks
The decision was in line with market expectations and our call
We expect rates to reach 0.50% at today’s monetary policy decision (6:00 PM, SP time)
The next monetary policy decision will take place on April 30 and additional stimulus cannot be ruled out
We cannot rule out additional monetary stimulus if risks for the economy increase even further
The next monetary policy decision will take place on April 30 and additional stimulus cannot be ruled out
We expect a pronounced hit to the Mexican economy following the combined shocks of COVID-19
We still expect a weak cumulative performance of the economy in 2020-21
The inflation report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with further rate cuts in 2020
In our view, these figures start to reflect the contraction that will soon materialize, and are set to deteriorate further
In our view, these figures start to reflect the contraction that will soon materialize, and are set to deteriorate further
In our view, these figures start to reflect the contraction that will soon materialize, and are set to deteriorate further
Looking ahead, we expect inflation to end 2020 at 3.4%
We reckon they will probably cut again once the market situation calms down, taking the Selic to 3.25% p.a., not necessarily in the next policy meeting
We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today.
We expect a policy rate of 5.50% by the end of 2020
The BCRP left the doors open for further easing the monetary policy rate
The BCB and the Fed established a temporary dollar liquidity arrangement through swap lines
We will learn more about the committee's strategy with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, March 24, at 08:00 AM Brasilia time
With this measure, the Administration would be allowed not to meet the fiscal target established for 2020 (BRL 124.1 billion deficit)
The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Selic rate to 3.75% p.a., in line with the market pricing.
Going forward, further monetary policy easing cannot be ruled out
Tomorrow, the Copom decision will be announced at 6:00 PM.
Looking ahead, strong external headwinds will likely lead to a growth slowdown from the 3.3% recorded last year
Going forward, further monetary policy easing cannot be ruled out
Among others, the measures include the anticipation of half the 13th pension wage for retired citizens.
Among others, the measures include the anticipation of half the 13th pension wage for retired citizens.
The program started today and will continue until next Wednesday.
The Congress overturned a presidential veto on the BPC benefit
The Congress overturned a presidential veto on the BPC benefit, increasing eligibility to receive the benefit, that consists in one minimum wage per month.
Almost every asset class in the region printed strong losses
Among the major categories, capital goods production stood out by climbing 12.6% in the month
This decision is strongly impacting markets worldwide and LatAm is set to follow the same path
Almost every asset class in the region printed strong losses
We see a yearend rate of 3.3%, but risks are tilted to a higher print given the recent upside surprises
Despite these interventions, the BRL depreciated 1.57% to 4.65 per dollar
BCB intervened in the FX market for three times, totaling an offer of 60.000 swap contracts (USD 3 billion)
In 2019 (accumulated in 4 quarters), GDP grew 1.1%
The next monetary policy meeting will take place on March 17-18
In our view, economic activity will continue on a moderate acceleration process, but the coronavirus outbreak poses a risk to this scenario
While the economy is rebounding from the October shock well above expectations, the outlook remains challenging
Before today, the only coronavirus cases in the region were in Brazil
After massive downturn Chilean economy struggles to regain momentum.
We see below-potential-growth of 1.2% this year, in line with the weak performance last year
Going forward, domestic uncertainty would remain heightened
In all, confidence indicators showed a mixed trend in February
This is also the first confirmed case in South America
The general tone of the minutes is cautious
This is also the first confirmed case in South America.
For now, the construction and consumer confidence decreased, while the industrial (preview) and retail confidence advanced in February.
While the construction sector confidence receded in February, the retail confidence increased in the same period.
The breakdown shows that the increase in the current conditions component was offset by a sharp deterioration of the expectation components.
February’s IPCA-15 underscores the deflationary contribution from the beef-price-related shock and show well-behaved core inflation measures
The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).
The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).
In our opinion, there is substantial spare capacity in the Brazilian economy.
The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.
The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.
Slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag
Following yesterday's auction, the BCB also announced that an auction of same magnitude (20,000 swap contracts) will take place today.
The monetary authority offered 20,000 swap contracts, totaling USD 1 billion.
Widespread weakness in the retail sector.
Core retail sales declined 0.1% mom/sa in December, weaker than market expectations (+0.2%)
In year-over-year terms, industrial production declined -1.0%.
We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today.
The document indicated that the authorities are firmly on hold, at least for now, but may be divided on the key issue of the magnitude of the output gap.
The reading was the lowest for the month of January since 1994.
In the post-meeting communiqué, the committee delivered the widely expected 25-bp rate cut, taking the Selic rate to 4.25% pa.
In all, the January’s IPCA inflation numbers confirm the deflationary trend after the beef priceh shock
We forecast a 0.33% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.32%
The downside surprise was mainly explained by lower than anticipated housing, communication and fuel inflation.
We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM
We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM
We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.25% p.a.
Our forecast for 2020 GDP growth stands at 2.2%