Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Itaú Monthly GDP proxy improves in Brazil  

    Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.

  • Evening Edition – Itaú Monthly GDP proxy improves in Brazil  

    Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021

  • Peruvian Central Bank keeps its policy rate at 0.25%  

    The widening of slack conditions and downside risks to inflation support the BCRP keeping an expansive monetary policy stance

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales growth in Brazil  

    In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Mexico  

    The upside surprise came mainly from core tradables non-food prices.

  • Economic activity partially rebounds in Argentina  

    Manufacturing rebounded by 9.0% mom/sa in May, helped by the easing of lockdown measures in the month

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales growth in Brazil  

    In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity rebounds in Argentina  

    The recovery followed a 15.5% mom/sa drop in the previous month, during the strict lockdown period

  • Internal demand slumps in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    A downbeat outlook and moderating inflation expectations point at subdued inflationary pressures, supporting our call for additional monetary stimulus

  • Evening Edition – Internal demand slumps in Mexico  

    We expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted

  • Evening Edition – Colombian exports remained weak in May  

    Going forward, low terms-of-trade and slowing global activity means Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist

  • Industrial production shows signs of recovery in Brazil  

    Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production shows signs of recovery in Brazil  

    Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels

  • Steeper activity slowdown in Chile  

    As a result, the economic contraction this year would be worse than the 4.5% drop outlined in our most recent scenario

  • Milder-than-expected labor market contraction in Brazil  

    The loss was widespread among the main sectors, with the service sector taking the biggest hit

  • Monthly GDP proxy deteriorates in Mexico  

    In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020

  • Evening Edition – Milder-than-expected labor market contraction in Brazil  

    This reinforces our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP proxy deteriorates in Mexico  

    In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020

  • Banxico cuts reference rate by 50bps  

    The still cautious tone of the Board over risks surrounding inflation means that rate cuts larger than 50-bps are unlikely

  • Brazilian Senate approves sanitation reform  

    The bill establishes mechanisms to attract private investment in the sector

  • Copom minutes indicate caution ahead  

    We expect the Selic to end the year at its current level, 2.25% pa

  • Itaú monthly GDP proxy drops in Brazil  

    Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines

  • Domestic demand deteriorates in Mexico  

    We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%

  • Evening Edition – Itaú monthly GDP proxy drops in Brazil  

    Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines

  • Activity falls in Colombia amid lockdown measures  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year but risks lean to a deeper fall. In this context, we see room for additional monetary stimulus ahead

  • Evening Edition – Domestic demand deteriorates in Mexico  

    We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%

  • Copom leaves the door slightly ajar to further easing  

    We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25% pa

  • Evening Edition – Copom leaves the door slightly ajar to further easing  

    We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25%pa.

  • Retail sales decline by less than expected in Brazil  

    Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April, and are starting to recover in May and June

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decline by less than expected in Brazil  

    Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April

  • Activity slumps in Colombia amid lockdown restrictions  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year)

  • Industrial production falls sharply in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%

  • Evening Edition – Activity slumps in Colombia amid lockdown restrictions  

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year), but risks tilt to a deeper decline amid social-distancing measures

  • Inflation declines in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production falls sharply in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%

  • Evening Edition – Inflation declines in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the end of this year

  • Large trade surplus in Chile  

    Going forward, we see the current account balanced this year, from a 3.9% deficit in 2019

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the close of this year

  • Significant disinflation in Colombia  

    This result is consistent with our call for additional monetary stimulus ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation falls amid labor market loosening in Chile  

    Weakened demand, along with still low oil prices and some CLP appreciation, will likely keep inflation below the target this year

  • Manufacturing and construction activity plummeted in Argentina  

    The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic

  • Evening Edition – Manufacturing and construction activity plummeted in Argentina  

    The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic

  • Vehicle sales increase in Brazil, but remain at very depressed levels  

    Vehicle sales remain very depressed levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively

  • Chilean GDP proxy falls 14% in April  

    Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • Evening Edition – Vehicle sales increase in Brazil, but remain at low levels  

    Vehicle sales remain at historically low levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively

  • Brazilian GDP fell 1.5% in 1Q20, driven by initial effects of the Covid-19 outbreak  

    We expect the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period

  • Evening Edition – Chilean GDP proxy falls 14% in April  

    Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP fell 1.5% in 1Q20, driven by initial effects of the outbreak  

    We forecast the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period

  • Banxico minutes provide no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    Our base scenario is for Banxico continuing to cut its policy rate in 50-bp cuts (until it reaches 4.00%)

  • President Bolsonaro sanctions financial aid for states and municipalities  

    With the veto, the expected savings with the salary freeze returned to its original amount of BRL 130bn.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes provide no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% by the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Sharp formal job destruction amid the pandemic in Brazil  

    Since January the publication of CAGED was suspended by de Ministry of Economy due to methodological changes

  • Lower-than-expected mid-month inflation in Brazil  

    We expect deflation of 0.42% in May and a 0.19% increase in June. For 2020, we expect the IPCA to advance 2.0% and 3.0% in 2021

  • Construction confidence increases in Brazil, but remains at a very low level  

    This result was slightly better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago

  • Central bank minutes show that additional stimulus is likely in Chile  

    We expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators advance in Brazil, but remain at low levels  

    In spite of the positive results registered in May, both consumer and retail confidence indexes remain at a very weak level

  • Evening Edition – Minutes show that additional stimulus is likely in Chile  

    As the economy is in the midst of its most challenging period, we expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks

  • Argentina to default on its external debt  

    Argentina extended the deadline on its debt offer to June 2 from May 22 while negotiations with creditors continue

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence improves slightly in Brazil, but remains at a weak level  

    This result was better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV last week, where the industrial confidence pointed to a 1.2 drop

  • Activity declines sharply in Argentina, reflecting the beginning of the lockdown  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020

  • Real estate activity slumps in Chile  

    We expect the Chilean economy to contract 3.7% this year (+1.1% last year)

  • Evening Edition – Activity declines sharply in Argentina, reflecting the beginning of the lockdown  

    As a result, we forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020

  • Evening Edition – Real estate activity slumps in Chile  

    Recently, we have revised significantly our forecast for primary fiscal deficit for this year to 4.3% of GDP from 2.4%

  • GDP surprises to the upside in Chile but is set to fall ahead  

    Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response

  • Evening Edition – GDP surprises to the upside in Chile but is set to fall ahead  

    Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response

  • Confidence indicators bounce back in Brazil, but remain at very low levels  

    Despite the rebound, the confidence level is still low

  • Banxico cuts reference rate by 50bps  

    We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators increase in Brazil, but remain at a wea  

    The current level of the aggregate business confidence index is consistent with a 175k formal job loss, seasonally-adjusted

  • Retail sales decline sharply in Brazil  

    All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month

  • Retail sales decline sharply in Brazil  

    We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020

  • Copom minutes reinforce interest rate cut ahead, despite fiscal risks  

    We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decline sharply in Brazil  

    All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes reinforce 75-bp cut ahead, despite fiscal risks  

    We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting

  • Copom minutes in focus  

    We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin

  • Evening Edition – Growth expectations deteriorate further in Brazil  

    The median of 2020 GDP growth expectations fell for the 13th consecutive week

  • Stable rates in Peru  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin

  • Copom delivers a 75-bp cut  

    We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12

  • Evening Edition – Inflation declines sharply in Mexico  

    Looking ahead, we expect inflation at 2.9% this year

  • Evening Edition – Copom delivers a 75-bp cut  

    We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12

  • Industrial production declines sharply in Brazil  

    Data for March and April will be relevant to measure the magnitude of economic activity drop during social distancing

  • Activity declines sharply in Chile  

    With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged

  • Evening Edition – Activity declines sharply in Chile  

    With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged

  • Banrep cuts policy rate by 50bps  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • Evening Edition – Banrep cuts policy rate by 50bps  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • Monetary policy meeting in Colombia to take center stage  

    We expect another 50bp rate cut, to 3.25%

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence in Brazil confirms sharp drop in April  

    This result comes in line with last week’s preview (-39.5 p.p.), and with the special report published earlier this month (-39.0 p.p.)

  • Brazilian corporate loans jump in March  

    Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms

  • President Bolsonaro’s approval rate remains virtually stable  

    His rejection rate also remained roughly unchanged

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian corporate loans jump in March  

    Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms

  • Confidence indicators in Brazil confirm sharp drop in April  

    In all, these figures come in line with those observed in the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators in Brazil confirm sharp drop in April  

    In all, these figures come in line with those observed in the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago

  • Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    We now expect inflation to end 2020 at 2.9% (before we estimated inflation at 3.2%)

  • Evening Edition – Justice Minister leaves Brazil´s government  

    The new minister has not been announced yet

  • Fiscal deficit increases in Argentina, affected by COVID-19  

    We expect the economy to begin a slow normalization in 2H19

  • Banxico cuts reference rate by 50bps in extraordinary meeting  

    We expect Banxico to continue easing its monetary policy stance, reaching a rate of 4.50% before the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Fiscal deficit increases in Argentina, affected by COVID-19  

    We expect the economy to begin a slow normalization in 2H19

  • Brazil’s Senate approves War-budget  

    As the Senate made some changes, the bill will return to the Lower House

  • Evening Edition – Growth expectations continue to be revised to the downside in Brazil  

    The median of 2020 GDP growth expectations fell for the 10th consecutive week

  • Chilean Monetary Policy Minutes emphasize low-for-long message  

    Given the scenario outlined by the board, we expect rates to be kept at their technical minimum throughout the year

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Senate approves War-budget  

    As the Senate made some changes to the text, the proposal will return to the Lower House.

  • Brazil's Senate approves 1st round of War-budget  

    Speaker Davi Alcolumbre has announced that the second-round of voting will take place tomorrow

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Senate approves base text of War-budget  

    The Senators are currently voting the amendments to the bill

  • Confidence indicators decline sharply in Brazil, amid impacts of Covid-19  

    The aggregate business confidence index fell 27.6 p.p. to 53.7, the lowest level since the beginning of the series

  • Confidence indicators decline sharply in Brazil, amid impacts of Covid-19  

    The aggregate business confidence index fell 27.6 p.p. to 53.7, the lowest level since the beginning of the series

  • Brazilian Lower House approves emergency aid for states and municipalities  

    According to local media, the bill is not endorsed by the government and may be vetoed by the president if approved in the Senate

  • Peruvian central bank cuts rates by 100bps in extraordinary meeting  

    We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020

  • Evening Edition – Growth expectations continue to be revised to the downside in Brazil  

    GDP growth expectations for 2020 receded to -1.96% (from -1.18%), reflecting the Covid-19 expected impacts on growth

  • Chilean government builds on fiscal response  

    The measures amount to USD 5 billion (close to 2% of GDP) and is complementary to the USD 11.7 billion package (close to 5% of GDP) released on March 17

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    For the whole year readings, we anticipate increases of 2.7% this year and 3.3% in 2021

  • Evening Edition – Chilean government builds on fiscal response  

    The measures amount to USD 5 billion (close to 2% of GDP) and is complementary to the USD 11.7 billion package (close to 5% of GDP) released on March 17

  • Retail sales advance in Brazil, but pandemic’s impact is still not reflected  

    These figures are related to February, before the strong negative impacts from the Coronavirus on economic activity

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales advance in Brazil, but pandemic’s impact is still not reflected  

    These figures are related to February, before the strong negative impacts from the Coronavirus on economic activity

  • Brazil´s outlook revised to stable from positive by S&P  

    The outlook revision reflects diminishing prospects for an upgrade over the coming year due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Brazilian Lower House approves the “war-budget”  

    The bill now heads to the Senate

  • Evening Edition – Inflation accelerates in Colombia  

    We estimate that at the margin inflation accumulated (and annualized) in 1Q20 slowed to 2.6% from 3.4% in 4Q19

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House may vote on the “War-budget” tonight  

    As this proposal is a constitutional amendment, it requires two rounds of voting in the Lower House, and then it will head to the Senate.

  • Brazilian Lower House may vote on the “War-budget” today  

    As this proposal is a constitutional amendment, it requires two rounds of voting in the Lower House, and then it will head to the Senate

  • More measures to help contain coronavirus impacts announced in Brazil  

    Last night the government announced a provisional measure that authorizes companies to reduce their employees working hours with a proportional salary reduction

  • Evening Edition – Chilean monetary policy report signals low rates for long  

    We expect rates to stay at this historically low level for the remainder of the year

  • A 50-bp rate cut and “low for long” forward guidance in Chile  

    The decision had the unanimous backing of the board and results in a 125bp rate adjustment over the last two weeks

  • Evening Edition – Unanimous decision to cut rates in Chile  

    The decision was in line with market expectations and our call

  • Chilean Monetary Policy Minutes suggest additional easing is likely today  

    We expect rates to reach 0.50% at today’s monetary policy decision (6:00 PM, SP time)

  • A 50-bp rate cut and strengthening liquidity measures in Colombia  

    The next monetary policy decision will take place on April 30 and additional stimulus cannot be ruled out

  • Evening Edition – Chilean Monetary Policy Minutes suggest additional easing is likely  

    We cannot rule out additional monetary stimulus if risks for the economy increase even further

  • Evening Edition – A 50-bp rate cut and strengthening liquidity measures in Colombia  

    The next monetary policy decision will take place on April 30 and additional stimulus cannot be ruled out

  • S&P downgrades Mexico  

    We expect a pronounced hit to the Mexican economy following the combined shocks of COVID-19

  • GDP declines in Argentina  

    We still expect a weak cumulative performance of the economy in 2020-21

  • Evening Edition – BCB’s inflation report consistent with further rate cuts  

    The inflation report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with further rate cuts in 2020

  • Retail confidence collapses in Brazil amid coronavirus outbreak  

    In our view, these figures start to reflect the contraction that will soon materialize, and are set to deteriorate further

  • Evening Edition – Retail confidence collapses in Brazil amid coronavirus outbre  

    In our view, these figures start to reflect the contraction that will soon materialize, and are set to deteriorate further

  • Consumer confidence plummets in Brazil, amid coronavirus outbreak  

    In our view, these figures start to reflect the contraction that will soon materialize, and are set to deteriorate further

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Looking ahead, we expect inflation to end 2020 at 3.4%

  • Evening Edition – Busy BCB Day  

    We reckon they will probably cut again once the market situation calms down, taking the Selic to 3.25% p.a., not necessarily in the next policy meeting

  • All eyes on BCB’s communication today  

    We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico cuts reference rate by 50bps in intermeeting decision  

    We expect a policy rate of 5.50% by the end of 2020

  • Peruvian CB cuts rates by 100bps in intermeeting decision  

    The BCRP left the doors open for further easing the monetary policy rate

  • Evening Edition – BCB and the Fed work together to provide liquidity to the FX market  

    The BCB and the Fed established a temporary dollar liquidity arrangement through swap lines

  • Copom: a hawkish cut?  

    We will learn more about the committee's strategy with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, March 24, at 08:00 AM Brasilia time

  • Brazil to declare State of Public Calamity  

    With this measure, the Administration would be allowed not to meet the fiscal target established for 2020 (BRL 124.1 billion deficit)

  • Evening Edition – Copom reduces Selic rate by 50bps and signals no further cuts  

    The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee lowered the Selic rate to 3.75% p.a., in line with the market pricing.

  • Chile cuts rate by 75bps in extraordinary meeting  

    Going forward, further monetary policy easing cannot be ruled out

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on tomorrow’s Copom decision  

    Tomorrow, the Copom decision will be announced at 6:00 PM.

  • Retail sales continued to drive growth in Colombia  

    Looking ahead, strong external headwinds will likely lead to a growth slowdown from the 3.3% recorded last year

  • Evening Edition – Chile cuts rate by 75bps in extraordinary meeting  

    Going forward, further monetary policy easing cannot be ruled out

  • Evening Edition – Government announces stimulus package against the coronavirus in Brazil  

    Among others, the measures include the anticipation of half the 13th pension wage for retired citizens.

  • Government announces stimulus package against the coronavirus in Brazil  

    Among others, the measures include the anticipation of half the 13th pension wage for retired citizens.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s National Treasury announced a bond re-purchase program  

    The program started today and will continue until next Wednesday.

  • Brazilian Congress decision generates risk of fiscal slippage  

    The Congress overturned a presidential veto on the BPC benefit

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Congress decision generates risk of fiscal slippage  

    The Congress overturned a presidential veto on the BPC benefit, increasing eligibility to receive the benefit, that consists in one minimum wage per month.

  • Markets plummet across the region  

    Almost every asset class in the region printed strong losses

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Among the major categories, capital goods production stood out by climbing 12.6% in the month

  • LatAm markets rocked by oil price slump  

    This decision is strongly impacting markets worldwide and LatAm is set to follow the same path

  • Evening Edition – Markets plummet across the region  

    Almost every asset class in the region printed strong losses

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Chile  

    We see a yearend rate of 3.3%, but risks are tilted to a higher print given the recent upside surprises

  • BCB steps up FX intervention  

    Despite these interventions, the BRL depreciated 1.57% to 4.65 per dollar

  • Evening Edition – BCB steps up FX intervention  

    BCB intervened in the FX market for three times, totaling an offer of 60.000 swap contracts (USD 3 billion)

  • Brazilian GDP grew 0.5% in 4Q19, in line with market expectations  

    In 2019 (accumulated in 4 quarters), GDP grew 1.1%

  • BCB opens the door for more stimulus ahead  

    The next monetary policy meeting will take place on March 17-18

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP grew 0.5% in 4Q19, in line with market expectations  

    In our view, economic activity will continue on a moderate acceleration process, but the coronavirus outbreak poses a risk to this scenario

  • Chilean GDP proxy surprises to the upside, but outlook remains challenging  

    While the economy is rebounding from the October shock well above expectations, the outlook remains challenging

  • Evening Edition – First coronavirus cases confirmed in Argentina and Chile  

    Before today, the only coronavirus cases in the region were in Brazil

  • Evening Edition – Chilean GDP proxy surprises to the upside, but outlook remains challenging  

    After massive downturn Chilean economy struggles to regain momentum.

  • Activity indicators surprise do the upside in Chile  

    We see below-potential-growth of 1.2% this year, in line with the weak performance last year

  • Evening Edition – Activity indicators surprise do the upside in Chile  

    Going forward, domestic uncertainty would remain heightened

  • Mixed results for confidence indicators in Brazil  

    In all, confidence indicators showed a mixed trend in February

  • First coronavirus case confirmed in Brazil  

    This is also the first confirmed case in South America

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes: not committing with further rate cuts  

    The general tone of the minutes is cautious

  • Evening Edition – First coronavirus case confirmed in Brazil  

    This is also the first confirmed case in South America.

  • Evening Edition – Mixed results for confidence indicators in Brazil  

    For now, the construction and consumer confidence decreased, while the industrial (preview) and retail confidence advanced in February.

  • Mixed results for confidence indicators in Brazil  

    While the construction sector confidence receded in February, the retail confidence increased in the same period.

  • Consumer confidence recedes in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase in the current conditions component was offset by a sharp deterioration of the expectation components.

  • Mid-month inflation rate decelerates in Brazil  

    February’s IPCA-15 underscores the deflationary contribution from the beef-price-related shock and show well-behaved core inflation measures

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence increases in Brazil  

    The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).

  • February's industrial confidence preview increases in Brazil  

    The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).

  • Evening Edition – Macro Vision: Is there spare capacity in the Brazilian economy?  

    In our opinion, there is substantial spare capacity in the Brazilian economy.

  • Trade deficit widens to a three-year high in Colombia  

    The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.

  • Evening Edition – Trade deficit widens to a three-year high in Colombia  

    The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.

  • Stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Colombia  

    Slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag

  • Brazilian Central Bank intervenes in the FX market  

    Following yesterday's auction, the BCB also announced that an auction of same magnitude (20,000 swap contracts) will take place today.

  • Evening Edition – BCB intervenes in the FX market for the second consecutive day  

    The monetary authority offered 20,000 swap contracts, totaling USD 1 billion.

  • Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Widespread weakness in the retail sector.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Core retail sales declined 0.1% mom/sa in December, weaker than market expectations (+0.2%)

  • Weak industrial production in Mexico  

    In year-over-year terms, industrial production declined -1.0%.

  • Copom releases the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting  

    We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes point to stable interest rates for the time being  

    The document indicated that the authorities are firmly on hold, at least for now, but may be divided on the key issue of the magnitude of the output gap.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    The reading was the lowest for the month of January since 1994.

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on the Copom minutes to be released tomorrow  

    In the post-meeting communiqué, the committee delivered the widely expected 25-bp rate cut, taking the Selic rate to 4.25% pa.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    In all, the January’s IPCA inflation numbers confirm the deflationary trend after the beef priceh shock

  • Inflation release to take center stage in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.33% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.32%

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    The downside surprise was mainly explained by lower than anticipated housing, communication and fuel inflation.

  • Central bank interrupts the easing cycle in Brazil  

    We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM

  • Central bank interrupts the easing cycle in Brazil  

    We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM

  • Evening Edition – All eyes on the Copom decision  

    We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.25% p.a.

  • Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our forecast for 2020 GDP growth stands at 2.2%


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