We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0%
We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat
We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0% from -12.7%
A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended
We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020
We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020
We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20
We expect GDP to fall by 10.7%.
We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20
Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19
Overall, we expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year)
We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).
Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead
The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.
Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead
In our view, exchange rate controls will undermine the economic recovery following the lifting of social distancing measures
The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.
We revised our annual inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.0% after incorporating additional pressure on food costs
The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)
The data continue to indicate that the economy is recovering
The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)
In all, this print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP
The main negative surprises relative to our estimates were transportation and information & communication services
We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November
In all, today’s print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP
We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November. We expect the IPCA to rise 2.0% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year).
We forecast a 10.7% decline for GDP in 2020
An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year)
In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week
Overall, the real wage bill reached a new historical minimum on record
The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021
In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week
We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year
The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021
We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year
We see rates remaining at 2.0% throughout 2021
Overall, an average unemployment rate of 10.4% is estimated, up from 7.2% last year
Our base case is for Banxico to deliver a 25-bp rate cut in the next monetary policy meeting (September 24)
The rate came in between market consensus of 12.8% and our 13.5% call
We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%
Moody’s rating agency affirmed the sovereign credit rating for Chile (‘A1’), but revised the outlook from stable to negative
We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%
We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020
S&P rates Chile at a comparable level, while Fitch is one notch lower at ‘A’
The improvement was widespread across sectors
We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020
CAGED data provide a better labor market picture than other surveys, such as the PNAD Covid
With this decision, the government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn
The government is working to reach an agreement to avoid a final overturn
The government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn, according to calculations from the Ministry of Economy
Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers
The veto will now head to the Lower House, where it will require 257 votes to be overturned
We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020
Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers
There was a historic drop at the margin, but dynamics improved within the quarter
We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020
The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (+3.3% last year)
We expect the central bank to slow down the pace of rate cuts, delivering 25-bp reductions in each of the next two meetings
We maintain our forecast for the policy rate at 4.0% before the year ends
This reflects the strong rebound in household spending on goods
Both secretaries were in office since the beginning of president Bolsonaro’s administration
This reflects the strong rebound in household spending on goods
We expect the Selic to end the year at its current level of 2.00% pa
This result provides another sign that industrial production continues to recover rapidly from the strong drops observed in March and April
This reinforces the view that specific service sectors (not all of the service sector) are displaying a slower recovery from the crisis
The next IPCA readings tend to sustain the benign dynamics
Assuming the participation rate constant at its February level, unemployment rate increased to 22.4% from 19.7% according to our estimates
We will learn more about the rationale behind yesterday´s decision and the authorities´ strategy with the release of the meeting minutes
Assuming the participation rate constant at its February level, unemployment rate increased to 22.4% from 19.7% according to our estimates
We will learn more about the rationale behind today´s decision and the authorities´ strategy with the release of the meeting minutes
Going forward, we expect GDP to recover from Q3 onwards and continue to forecast a 4.5% GDP drop this year
Going forward, we expect GDP to recover from Q3 onwards and continue to forecast a 4.5% GDP drop this year
Argentina and the main creditor groups reached an agreement on debt restructuring
As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery process and inflation unfold
The economy stopped falling at the margin for the first time since February
As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery process and inflation unfold
As the economy slumps, the average unemployment rate for 2020 will likely reach 17.0%, well above the 10.5% recorded in 2019
After two monthly declines, new non-earmarked loans expanded 1.8% mom/sa in real terms
As the economy slumps, the average unemployment rate for 2020 will likely reach 17.0%, well above the 10.5% recorded in 2019
June’s figures reinforce our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards
In the earmarked segment, the average interest rate slid to 7.0% from 7.5%, declining for non-financial corporations while remaining stable for households
June’s figures reinforce our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards
We expect external sales to recover at a faster pace than imports due to a better performance of domestic demand in the U.S. relative to Mexico
The monthly trade balance posted a surplus of USD 5.6 billion in June,
We expect the IPCA to advance 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We expect the IPCA to advance 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
President Piñera will sign it into law today
Given the bill departs from the version voted in the house of representatives, it now returns the lower chamber of congress for analysis
The bill appears set to become law as the 2/3 threshold achieved in both chambers renders the presidential veto impotent
Yesterday, Minister Paulo Guedes unveiled to Congress the first phase of the government’s tax reform project
We expect a recovery for the second half of the year as distancing measures are lifted
The initiative faces a challenging road ahead as Wednesday‘s discussion of the bill on the floor will see a likely debated item-by-item vote
Minister Paulo Guedes unveiled to Congress today the first phase of the government’s tax reform project
We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).
The proposal will aim to unify the PIS/Cofins federal taxes into a single VAT
When compared to the period before the social distancing measures (Jan-Feb), the industrial sector registered the strongest recovery
We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).
The bill now head to Senate
The report shows that the confidence level continued to increase in the month, with the aggregate business confidence level increasing 7.3 p.p.
The bill now heads to Senate
The president emphasized the need to advance with a profound reform of the country’s pension system
The president emphasized the need to advance with a profound reform of the country’s pension system
Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.
Available data suggest that economic activity indicators bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June
We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
The widening of slack conditions and downside risks to inflation support the BCRP keeping an expansive monetary policy stance
In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June.
The upside surprise came mainly from core tradables non-food prices.
Manufacturing rebounded by 9.0% mom/sa in May, helped by the easing of lockdown measures in the month
In all, available data suggest that economic activity bottomed in April and started to recover in May and June
The recovery followed a 15.5% mom/sa drop in the previous month, during the strict lockdown period
Going forward, we expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted
A downbeat outlook and moderating inflation expectations point at subdued inflationary pressures, supporting our call for additional monetary stimulus
We expect a recovery in the second half of the year as social distancing measures are lifted
Going forward, low terms-of-trade and slowing global activity means Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist
Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels
Preliminary data suggest that industrial production continued to grow in June, albeit still at low levels
As a result, the economic contraction this year would be worse than the 4.5% drop outlined in our most recent scenario
The loss was widespread among the main sectors, with the service sector taking the biggest hit
In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020
This reinforces our view that the economic activity reached a low in April and started to pick up afterwards
In all, April figures put a downside risk to our 8.5% GDP contraction forecast for 2020
The still cautious tone of the Board over risks surrounding inflation means that rate cuts larger than 50-bps are unlikely
The bill establishes mechanisms to attract private investment in the sector
We expect the Selic to end the year at its current level, 2.25% pa
Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines
We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%
Nine out of 13 monthly GDP components posted seasonally adjusted monthly declines
We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year but risks lean to a deeper fall. In this context, we see room for additional monetary stimulus ahead
We expect 2020 GDP to fall by 8.5%
We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25% pa
We believe the Copom will leave the base rate unchanged until year-end, at 2.25%pa.
Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April, and are starting to recover in May and June
Available data so far indicate that economic activity indicators have reached a low in April
We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year)
Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%
We expect a GDP contraction of 4.7% this year (+3.3% last year), but risks tilt to a deeper decline amid social-distancing measures
We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August
Going forward, we expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 8.5%
We forecast a 0.27% inflation in June, 0.37% in July and 0.19% in August
Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the end of this year
Going forward, we see the current account balanced this year, from a 3.9% deficit in 2019
Going forward, we expect inflation at 2.9% in the close of this year
This result is consistent with our call for additional monetary stimulus ahead.
Weakened demand, along with still low oil prices and some CLP appreciation, will likely keep inflation below the target this year
The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic
The figures were strongly affected by the pandemic
Vehicle sales remain very depressed levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively
Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year
Vehicle sales remain at historically low levels, after dropping 40.7% mom/sa and 63.2% mom/sa in March and April, respectively
We expect the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period
Prolonged mobility restrictions, enduring domestic uncertainties and weak global demand point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year
We forecast the 2Q20 GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa (not annualized), as social distancing remained in place for the bulk of this period
Our base scenario is for Banxico continuing to cut its policy rate in 50-bp cuts (until it reaches 4.00%)
With the veto, the expected savings with the salary freeze returned to its original amount of BRL 130bn.
We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% by the end of 2020
Since January the publication of CAGED was suspended by de Ministry of Economy due to methodological changes
We expect deflation of 0.42% in May and a 0.19% increase in June. For 2020, we expect the IPCA to advance 2.0% and 3.0% in 2021
This result was slightly better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV two weeks ago
We expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks
In spite of the positive results registered in May, both consumer and retail confidence indexes remain at a very weak level
As the economy is in the midst of its most challenging period, we expect the board to announce additional support measures in coming weeks
Argentina extended the deadline on its debt offer to June 2 from May 22 while negotiations with creditors continue
This result was better than that from the special survey conducted by FGV last week, where the industrial confidence pointed to a 1.2 drop
We forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020
We expect the Chilean economy to contract 3.7% this year (+1.1% last year)
As a result, we forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020
Recently, we have revised significantly our forecast for primary fiscal deficit for this year to 4.3% of GDP from 2.4%
Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response
Under such circumstances, monetary and fiscal authorities’ will remain ready to augment their response
Despite the rebound, the confidence level is still low
We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020
The current level of the aggregate business confidence index is consistent with a 175k formal job loss, seasonally-adjusted
All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month
We expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% at the end of 2020
We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting
All of the March data show that the impact of social distancing measures was already strong that month
We understand that the focus on the inflation target and on falling expectations points towards another 75-bp move in the next meeting
We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today
In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin
The median of 2020 GDP growth expectations fell for the 13th consecutive week
We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020
In all, the latest inflation prints continue to indicate low core inflation measures, and slowing down at the margin
We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12
Looking ahead, we expect inflation at 2.9% this year
We will learn more about the central bank´s views with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 12
Data for March and April will be relevant to measure the magnitude of economic activity drop during social distancing
With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged
With the coronavirus advancing in April, social distancing measures consolidated and public sentiment plunged
Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%
Given the drastic outlook deterioration for the Colombian economy, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%
We expect another 50bp rate cut, to 3.25%
This result comes in line with last week’s preview (-39.5 p.p.), and with the special report published earlier this month (-39.0 p.p.)
Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms
His rejection rate also remained roughly unchanged
Overall delinquency increased by 0.2 p.p. to 3.2% in seasonally adjusted terms