There are currently six million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine available for use.
We expect retail sales to decline in December, but preliminary data indicate some improvement in January
We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout the year amid a still wide negative output gap
We updated our 4Q20 GDP forecast to +3.0% (from +2.9%) qoq/sa, and continue to forecast a 4.1% drop in 2020 as a whole
Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.
We updated our 4Q20 GDP forecast to +3.0% (from +2.9%) qoq/sa, and continue to forecast a 4.1% drop in 2020 as a whole
We expect prices to increase 0.24% in January, 0.41% in February and 0.24% in March
We expect prices to increase 0.24% in January, 0.41% in February and 0.24% in March
Industrial production growth was driven by construction output
Industrial production growth was driven by construction output
Industrial production enjoys a strong recovery process
According to Butantan, none of the volunteers that received the CoronaVac vaccine suffered major complications when infected with the virus
Industrial production enjoys a strong recovery process
According to Butantan, none of the volunteers that received the CoronaVac suffered major complications when infected by the virus
The efficacy results of the CoronaVac vaccine may be disclosed today
The efficacy results of the Coronavac vaccine may be disclosed tomorrow
For 2021 higher inflation is likely (Itaú 3.0%)
Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic
A moderate correction is expected if inflation expectations continue to fall
Exports as well as imports declined in 2020 due to the slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic
We expect the monthly GDP proxy to have expanded 1% YoY in the month (-1.2% in October)
Fiscal results better at the margin
According to our estimate, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate receded to 14.4%, from 14.7% in the previous month
According to our estimate, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate receded to 14.4%, from 14.7% in the previous month
Overall, confidence indicators showed mixed results in December
Industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)
Industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)
Construction confidence increased slightly in December, while retail confidence dropped further.
The indicator reached 414k jobs in November, stronger than market expectations (269k) and our call (260k).
The IPCA-15 climbed 1.06% in December, printing below our estimate and market expectations (both at 1.17%).
The index registered the third consecutive drop.
Retail sales fell by 7.1% yoy, worse than our forecast of -4.6% and market expectations of -5.1%.
The central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected.
We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle in the next policy decision
A split board and the change in guard mean a deeper easing cycle cannot be ruled out.
We expect Banxico to resume cutting the policy rate as soon as 1Q21
We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%
We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%
Headline inflation posted a lower-than-expected increase in November, following the October spike.
Minutes clarify conditions to discard forward guidance. Given our inflation forecast, we expect this to happen only in the fall (S. Hem.)
We expect growth of 5% next year, bouncing back from a 7% decline forecast for 2020
At the margin, revenue increased 1.7% mom/sa
Our LatAm Macro Monthly was released today, featuring scenarios for Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and the global economy
At the margin, revenue increased 1.7% mom/sa
We expect significant GDP growth in 4Q20 (our current forecast: +2.9% qoq/sa)
We expect significant GDP growth in 4Q20 (our current forecast: +2.9% qoq/sa).
We expect an increase of 1.27% in December, so that the IPCA will climb 4.44% in 2020
We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022
We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022
We see inflation ending the year significantly below the lower bound of the central bank’s 2% – 4% range around the target
The National Institute of Statistics (INE) reported nominal wages increased 0.3% from September to October.
We expect 4Q20 GDP to increase 2.9% qoq sa (-1.5% yoy) and we are keeping our forecast of a 4.1% decline in 2020 as a whole
The latest industrial production report is yet another sign that GDP will continue to expand significantly in 4Q20
We expect 4Q20 GDP to increase 2.9% qoq sa (-1.5% yoy) and we are keeping our forecast of a 4.1% decline in 2020 as a whole
The surprise in October puts a downside bias to our call of a 5.5% GDP contraction for this year
In October, industrial production climbed 1.1% mom/sa.
We changed our IPCA 2021 forecasts to 4.3% given the change in the electricity flag to red 2 in December
Due to these changes, we now expect IPCA inflation at 4.3% in 2020 and 3.1% in 2021
In our view, employment and the participation rate will continue to recover in line with the ongoing rebound in economic activity
Given the risk of a second COVID-19 wave across the state, the government decided to return the entire state to the “yellow phase”
The service sector, which was responsible for substantial losses during the crisis, is now posting strong gains
Employment improves at the margin
The service sector, which was responsible for substantial losses during the crisis, is now posting strong gains
Using seasonally adjusted figures, retail sales expanded for the fifth consecutive month, by 2.7% mom in September
We forecast increases for the headline index of 0.78% in November and 0.71% in December
We forecast a near-zero or marginally positive current account balance in the next few years
We forecast increases for the headline index of 0.78% in November and 0.71% in December
We forecast a 0.73% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.13% (from 3.52% in October)
The industrial confidence is significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 101.4 (registered in February)
We expect GDP to fall by 12.6% in 2020
We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures
We expect the demand-side breakdown of GDP to show a broad-based recovery in 3Q20, reflecting the easing of social distancing measures
We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year.
For 2021, a favorable carryover and a better external environment will likely lead to GDP growth of 4.7%
We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year.
Lawmakers elected as head of Congress (and thus interim president until July 2021) Francisco Sagasti
For 2021, a favorable carryover and a better external environment will likely lead to GDP growth of 4.7%
Lawmakers elected as head of Congress (and thus interim president until July 2021) Francisco Sagasti
For 2021, we see GDP growth of 4.7%
We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.
We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020 and 2021 amid a wide negative output gap and subdued inflation
We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.
Retail sales are well above their pre-crisis levels
The initiative will now move to the senate’s constitution commission
Retail sales are well above their pre-crisis levels
The Head of Congress, Manuel Merino, is expected to take over as interim president until the next presidential term begins
The initiative will return to the lower house’s constitution commission to discuss the particularities of the project
Core inflation stood at 0.24%, below our call and market expectations of 0.26%
Our preliminary forecasts for the IPCA are 0.47% in November and 0.70% in December
The main drag in the month was the 2.48% drop of the education division.
Our preliminary forecasts for the IPCA are 0.47% in November and 0.70% in December, so that the full-year increase is estimated at 3.41%
The faster annual gain was aided by a lower base of comparison
The tax exemption was extended until the end of 2021. If the veto was maintained, the tax break would have ended in 2020.
The bill will now head to the Lower House
We see the minutes as consistent with our view that the committee will leave the base rate unchanged, at 2.0% pa, until late 2021
We expect a GDP decline of 5.5% this year (+1.1% in 2019), with a rebound of 5.5% next year
We believe the board will keep rates at 1.75% for some time, as they evaluate how the economy responds to the reopening process
The improvement in job creation has been widespread within sectors
The Copom maintained the Selic rate at 2.0% p.a and tweaked its communication in a hawkish direction
The improvement in job creation has been widespread within sectors
If the bill passes the detailed discussion in the commission, it will move to the full floor for a vote
The Copom maintained the Selic rate at 2.0% p.a and tweaked its communication in a hawkish direction.
Going forward, we expect the economy to recover during the rest of the year
As expected, the Constitution Commission of the Lower House of congress voted to allow a second pension withdrawal
We expect the economy to recover during the rest of the year
The new constitution would likely seek to place more weight in the role of the state in the provision of social services
CPI posted a bi-weekly rate of 0.54%, broadly in line with our forecast of 0.52%, but above market expectations of 0.46%.
The mid-month inflation index IPCA-15 climbed 0.94% in October.
The Treasury ran a primary deficit of ARS 167.2 billion in September, compared with a deficit of ARS 25.4 billion for the same month in 2019.
Mexico’s CPI posted a bi-weekly rate of 0.54%, broadly in line with our forecast of 0.52%, but above market expectations at 0.46%.
The industrial confidence (second preview) advanced 4.0 p.p. in October (to 110.7), after increasing 8.0 p.p. in September.
The Treasury ran a primary deficit of ARS 167.2 billion in September, compared with a deficit of ARS 25.4 billion for the same month in 2019.
FGV will release the second preview of the industrial sector confidence survey for October at 8:00 AM (SP time).
A trade deficit of USD 828 million was recorded in August, narrowing from the USD 1.4 billion deficit last year.
Downbeat domestic demand led to imports shrinking by more than a fourth in August.
The policy rate was kept unchanged at 0.5%, as widely expected.
The CPI increased by 2.8% mom in the month (slightly above the market consensus of 2.7%), from 2.7% in August.
The policy rate was kept unchanged at 0.5%, as widely expected.
Core inflation slowed in September.
Market participants continue to adjust inflation forecasts for this year.
The indicator fell by 9.0% year-over-year in the month, better than our forecast of -11.5% and market expectations of -10.3%.
According to the Focus survey, market participants continue to adjust their inflation forecasts for this year.
We expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2020 and 2021
The data reinforces our view of a significant recovery in Q3 GDP
Going forward, the anticipated recovery would result in some widening of the current account deficit next year to 2% of GDP
Our GDP forecast for 2020 stands at -10.7%
Our inflation forecast for this year stands at 9.5%.
Our GDP forecast for 2020 stands at -10.7%
We continue to forecast a 4.5% GDP decline in 2020
Our inflation forecast for this year stands at 9.5%
The one-day repo rate was increased by 500 bp to 24%
A wide negative output gap will put downward pressure on prices
The improvement in employment and wages reinforces our view that GDP will recover significantly in the second half of this year
Compared to our call, the surprise came from lower-than-anticipated COVID-19 emergency spending and higher non-tax revenues
The improvement in employment and wages reinforces our view that GDP will recover significantly in the second half of this year
Compared to our call, the surprise came from lower-than-anticipated COVID-19 emergency spending and higher non-tax revenues
We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0%
We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat
We revised upwardly our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -12.0% from -12.7%
A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended
We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020
We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We expect Banxico to pause its easing cycle keeping the policy rate at 4.25% by year end 2020
We expect the IPCA to advance 2.5% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20
We expect GDP to fall by 10.7%.
We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year, even with some gradual economic recovery in 2H20
Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19
Overall, we expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year)
We expect a GDP contraction of 6.0% this year (+3.3% last year).
Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead
The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.
Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead
In our view, exchange rate controls will undermine the economic recovery following the lifting of social distancing measures
The committee left the Selic rate at its all-time low of 2.0% p.a., in a unanimous decision.
We revised our annual inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.0% after incorporating additional pressure on food costs
The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)
The data continue to indicate that the economy is recovering
The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (vs. +3.3% last year)
In all, this print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP
The main negative surprises relative to our estimates were transportation and information & communication services
We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November
In all, today’s print was another release reinforcing the significant pickup we expect for Q3 GDP
We forecast increases of 0.28% in September, 0.32% in October, and 0.25% in November. We expect the IPCA to rise 2.0% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021
An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year).
We forecast a 10.7% decline for GDP in 2020
An elevated base of comparison will lead yearend inflation to 2.3% (3.0% last year)
In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week
Overall, the real wage bill reached a new historical minimum on record
The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021
In our view, the GDP will recover significantly in 3Q20, after the sharp contraction in 2Q20 reported earlier this week
We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year
The policy rate is signaled to remain at its technical floor of 0.5% throughout the end of 2021
We maintained our GDP forecasts at -4.5% this year and 3.5% next year
We see rates remaining at 2.0% throughout 2021
Overall, an average unemployment rate of 10.4% is estimated, up from 7.2% last year
Our base case is for Banxico to deliver a 25-bp rate cut in the next monetary policy meeting (September 24)
The rate came in between market consensus of 12.8% and our 13.5% call
We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%
Moody’s rating agency affirmed the sovereign credit rating for Chile (‘A1’), but revised the outlook from stable to negative
We expect GDP for 2020 to fall by 10.7%
We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020
S&P rates Chile at a comparable level, while Fitch is one notch lower at ‘A’
The improvement was widespread across sectors
We expect inflation at 3.7% for year-end 2020
CAGED data provide a better labor market picture than other surveys, such as the PNAD Covid
With this decision, the government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn
The government is working to reach an agreement to avoid a final overturn
The government avoids a potential fiscal impact of up to BRL 132 bn, according to calculations from the Ministry of Economy
Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers
The veto will now head to the Lower House, where it will require 257 votes to be overturned
We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020
Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead, as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers
There was a historic drop at the margin, but dynamics improved within the quarter
We expect GDP to fall by 11.9% in 2020
The significant shock to the Colombian economy is likely to result in a 6% contraction this year (+3.3% last year)
We expect the central bank to slow down the pace of rate cuts, delivering 25-bp reductions in each of the next two meetings
We maintain our forecast for the policy rate at 4.0% before the year ends
This reflects the strong rebound in household spending on goods
Both secretaries were in office since the beginning of president Bolsonaro’s administration