For now, the construction and consumer confidence decreased, while the industrial (preview) and retail confidence advanced in February.
While the construction sector confidence receded in February, the retail confidence increased in the same period.
The breakdown shows that the increase in the current conditions component was offset by a sharp deterioration of the expectation components.
February’s IPCA-15 underscores the deflationary contribution from the beef-price-related shock and show well-behaved core inflation measures
The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).
The business confidence preview in the industrial sector increased 0.7 p.p. in February (to 101.6).
In our opinion, there is substantial spare capacity in the Brazilian economy.
The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.
The widening was almost entirely due to a smaller energy surplus, as commodity exports languished.
Slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag
Following yesterday's auction, the BCB also announced that an auction of same magnitude (20,000 swap contracts) will take place today.
The monetary authority offered 20,000 swap contracts, totaling USD 1 billion.
Widespread weakness in the retail sector.
Core retail sales declined 0.1% mom/sa in December, weaker than market expectations (+0.2%)
In year-over-year terms, industrial production declined -1.0%.
We will publish an in-depth report on the minutes later today.
The document indicated that the authorities are firmly on hold, at least for now, but may be divided on the key issue of the magnitude of the output gap.
The reading was the lowest for the month of January since 1994.
In the post-meeting communiqué, the committee delivered the widely expected 25-bp rate cut, taking the Selic rate to 4.25% pa.
In all, the January’s IPCA inflation numbers confirm the deflationary trend after the beef priceh shock
We forecast a 0.33% monthly increase, leading the 12-month reading to 4.32%
The downside surprise was mainly explained by lower than anticipated housing, communication and fuel inflation.
We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM
We´ll learn more about the Copom´s views with the release of the meeting minutes on Tuesday, February 11, at 08:00 AM
We expect the Copom to reduce the Selic rate by 25bps to 4.25% p.a.
Our forecast for 2020 GDP growth stands at 2.2%
Dynamism in the month was led by non-mining activity
We continue to see economic activity in a gradual recovery trend
Dynamism in the month was led by non-mining activity
The minutes of this meeting and the inflation report will be released today at 3:00 PM (SP time)
The minutes of this meeting and the inflation report will be released next Monday
Moreover, if the recent stabilization of oil output lasts, the mining sector would also contribute to a GDP growth improvement in 2020
If the recent stabilization of oil output lasts, the mining sector would also contribute to a GDP growth improvement in 2020
We expect an additional 50 bps of easing, to 1.25%, by yearend
So far, confidence surveys on the industrial, retail and construction sectors registered positive results in January
The average interest rate on consumer loans declined to 47.3%
According to FGV, this result is consistent with the recovery in the construction sector
A moderate slowdown in the U.S. economic activity in 2020 will probably have some impact on manufacturing exports
This advance was boosted by a strong reading on the expectations component
In our view, even at a higher level, the current account deficit will still be comfortably financed by foreign direct investment
The seasonally-adjusted 3-month-moving average stands at 78k
This figures were probably influenced by the pressure in food prices observed recently
In year-over-year terms, inflation advanced to 4.34% (our call: 4.27%; mkt: 4.30%), from 3.91% in the previous month.
MDA surveyed 2002 respondents between January 15 and 18
His job approval rating went to 34.5% from 29.4% in August.
With the result, the indicator entered into optimistic grounds for the first time since May 2018.
Given our expectation of more robust global growth, benefiting Colombia’s exports, we believe that a further widening of the deficit is unlikely
Local news indicate that Minister Paulo Guedes may provide policy signals and reveal details of the economic team’s flight plan into 2020
Despite some expected weakness in November, overall activity dynamism remains in line with growth close to the potential
Minister Paulo Guedes may provide policy signals and reveal details of the economic team’s flight plan into 2020
The Argentine central bank cut the Leliq rate to 50% from 52%. This is the fourth rate cut since Fernández took office last month
We expect growth to come in at 3.1% this year
In our view, economic activity remains in a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin in November and December
Despite a myriad of demands raised during the social uprising, a key factor was the low levels of pensions
In our view, economic activity remains on a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin
In our view, economic activity remains in a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin
In our view, economic activity remains on a gradual acceleration trend, but with some weaker signs at the margin.
The breakdown, as reported by figures adjusted for working days, shows construction investment declined 5.1%
Looking ahead, our preliminary forecast for January’s IPCA stands at 0.26%
The breakdown, shows construction investment declined 5.1% yoy in the quarter ended in October
Looking ahead, our preliminary forecast for January’s IPCA stands at 0.26%.
The breakdown shows that the contraction of industrial production was widespread
This is the third rate cut since Fernández took office last month
A sharper price drop in the food division and a decline in tourism packages were the key factors behind the surprise
A sharper price drop in the food division and a decline in tourism packages were the key factors behind the surprise
From a demand standpoint, both domestic sales and exports receded
From a demand standpoint, both domestic sales and exports receded
The data will be released throughout the day
In December, prices gained 0.26% from the previous month (0.30% last year).
In December, prices gained 0.26% from the previous month.
Activity continued on the downward trend observed in October's figures.
A small improvement ended a four-month downward trend, as some normalization of day-to-day life returned following peak protest activity.
Activity continued on the downward trend observed in October's figures.
Confidence increase in all sectors in December.
According to our seasonally adjusted series, unemployment slid 0.2 p.p. to 11.7%.
The consolidated primary deficit over 12 months receded to 1.2% of GDP from 1.3% in the previous month.
According to our seasonally adjusted series, unemployment slid 0.2 p.p. to 11.7%.
As has been the case in recent months, the final indicator printed better than the preview, released last week.
Albeit at a slower pace, confidence in the service and retail sector followed the gains from the consumer, industry and construction confidence indexes.
Albeit at a slower pace, confidence in the service and retail sector followed the gains from the consumer, industry and construction sectors.
On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 2.63% yoy in the first half of December.
The board of the central bank unanimously decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 4.25%, as widely expected.
Today’s results go in line with the preview for the industrial confidence released yesterday, which also showed good signs of improvements
Both the consumer and construction sector confidence advanced in the period.
Strong CAGED and confidence indicators are not a stop sign for the easing cycle.
The breakdown shows that the print was driven by improvements both in the expectations and in the current conditions component.
With domestic demand still upbeat, and global growth low, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide ahead.
Despite the advance in quarterly terms, activity likely endured a further deterioration following the presidential election in October.
The Copom minutes, released this morning, indicate that the authorities remain data dependent, but with a somewhat hawkish tone.
Although the details are unknown, they will include a 30% tax on purchases in hard currency (both domestic and abroad).
Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead.
A bill will be sent tonight with further measures.
The CPI increased by 4.3% mom, up from 3.3% in October and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 4.0%.
Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead.
The statement does not commit to additional rate cuts, but does not rule them out either.
At the margin, the indicator increased 0.8% mom/sa.
We will publish an in-depth report on Copom’s decision later tonight.
We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps to 4.50% p.a.
The ceremony may take place by mid-day, without a specific time.
We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50 bps to 4.50% p.a.
The share that views the government as “bad” + “awful” decreased to 36%, from 38%.
Looking ahead, we expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%.
Compared to our forecast, the highlight was the deviation in the group of food consumed at home, as beef prices soared 8.54%.
In our view, the highly uncertain domestic environment means stable rates at 1.75% for now.
In our view, the highly uncertain domestic environment means stable rates at 1.75% for now.
In the coming months, we see rates stable at 1.75%
Additionally, the historical GDP series was revised upward, so that 2018 GDP expanded 1.3% (previously +1.1%).
The GDP proxy receded 5.4% mom/sa, sharper than the 4.1% drop in March 2010, when the economy was struck by a earthquake.
Additionally, the historical GDP series was revised upward, so that 2018 GDP expanded 1.3% (previously +1.1%)
The economy decline was sharper than when the economy was struck by a major earthquake.
The president of the United States announced the increases from his official Twitter account.
Employment composition improves and income advances.
The bank announced a USD 20 billion program, through auctions of USD 10 billion in the spot market and USD 10 billion in the NDF market.
The breakdown shows that the positive print was driven by advances both in the current conditions and the expectations component.
The breakdown shows that the positive print was driven by advances both in the current conditions and the expectations component.
Despite the decrease, an organized protest has been called for today.
The BCB intervened by selling dollars in the spot market for the second consecutive day.
The breakdown shows that the increase was driven by the current conditions component (+2.4 p.p., to 81.3)
Earlier today, the BCB intervened twice by selling dollars in the spot market.
Recent activity figures highlight downside risk to our GDP growth forecast of 0.1% for 2019.
This pace of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of 2.1% in annualized terms
The current pace of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of 2.1% in annualized terms.
Continued loosening of the labor market, weaker consumer sentiment and higher short-term inflation could curb consumption growth ahead.
Looking ahead, despite some encouraging signs from 3Q19, recent disruptions would deny the persistence of the recovery through 4Q19.
Notwithstanding the temporary hiatus, important data are expected for the rest of the week.
Looking ahead, despite some encouraging signs from 3Q19, recent disruptions would deny the persistence of the recovery through 4Q19
On the other hand, the medium-term outlook remains broadly anchored.
Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending in the country.
GDP expanded 3.3% in 3Q19 (3.0% in 2Q19), in line with expectations and the highest rate since 2015.
Data reinforce positive trend in consumer spending in the country.
After this release, our 3Q19 GDP tracking increased slightly to 0.44% qoq/sa from 0.40% qoq/sa.
After this release, our 3Q19 GDP tracking increased slightly to 0.44% qoq/sa from 0.40% qoq/sa.
Going forward, we expect a 50-bp rate cut, to 1.25%, at the December meeting.
Going forward, we expect a 50-bp rate cut, to 1.25%, at the December meeting.
Electricity tariff hikes, rise to air travel, and a higher-than-expected spike in tourism packages lifted inflation in the month.
Electricity tariff hikes, rise to air travel, and a higher-than-expected spike in tourism packages lifted inflation in the month.
Previously, we were expecting a 25-bp cut, with the central bank accelerating the pace of monetary policy easing at the December meeting.
Despite the surprise, October's report was another sign that inflation remains on a benign path.
In a weaker-than-expected outcome, 2 of the 4 exploratory blocks were sold with small participation from foreign parties.
The bidding round will take place at 10:00 BRT.
Signing bonuses totaled BRL 69.9 billion, below the BRL 106 billion expected by the government
The document reinforced the expectation of an additional 50-bp cut at December’s meeting, but indicated caution going forward.
At the margin, activity fell 0.6% from August, the first monthly decline since February.
At the margin, activity fell 0.6% from August, the first monthly decline since February, as mining fell sharply and non-mining activity also contracted.
Going forward, our preliminary forecast for 3Q19 GDP was revised to +0.4% qoq/sa (from +0.5% previously).
The two components of industrial production closely related to investment remain broadly stable at low levels.
The minutes of the meeting will be released today.
Unemployment will fall only gradually, but the informal employment is lowering, giving room to formal jobs.
The Copom delivered the widely expected decision, cutting the Selic rate by 50 bps, in a unanimous decision.
The committee decided to lower the Selic rate with a 50-bp cut, as widely expected.
Importantly, the expectations component of all confidence indexes decreased in October, with the biggest drop registered in today’s print.
Piñera will change the ministers of the Interior, Finance, Economy, among others government members.
The installed capacity utilization level (NUCI) increased 0.3 p.p., to 75.8%, still suggesting a wide slack in production factors.
In a short and moderate victory speech, Alberto Fernandez said there are difficult times ahead.
Piñera will change the ministers of the Interior, Finance, Economy, among others government members.
In all, today’s indicator will help to counterweight the falling trend observed in other confidence indexes so far.
The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in the country’s private consumption
The bank also noted that additional easing could be required to ensure inflation converges to the target, hinting at another cut ahead.
Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy and trade relations with the U.S. are weighing on investment
The voting on the highlights is set to continue today.
After a lengthy process, the main measure of the ongoing fiscal adjustment in the country is finished.
The breakdown shows that the print was driven by a drop both in the current conditions and in the expectations component.
Weaker-than-expected deflation in food at home prices was behind the deviation from our call.
Our preliminary estimates point at 50bp lower growth in October, likely shaving a couple of basis points for the entire year.
Our preliminary estimates point at a 50bp lower growth in October, likely shaving a couple of basis points for the entire year.
Solid import growth amid a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.
The current level of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.9% in annualized terms.
The ruling implies that reform-related revenue received to date can be retained (and for the remainder of 2019).
Consumer prices rose markedly in September, fully reflecting the depreciation of the ARS in the previous month.
The bill now heads to presidential sanction
With private consumption continuing to surprise to the upside, we note that activity growth this year could exceed our 3% forecast
This result follows weaker-than-expected readings registered in the retail and services indicators for August
The breakdown shows that three out of the five main categories declined
Compared to August 2018, the index dropped 0.73%, virtually in line with our forecast (-0.8%) and weaker than the market’s (-0.5%).
Despite the result, consumption remains in an upward trend.
Service revenues decreased in August, contributing to the weak monthly GDP proxy (PIB-IU) in the period.
Looking forward, withdrawals from the workers’ severance fund (FGTS) will likely provide a temporary boost to retail sales in coming months.
All core measures remain at comfortable levels, around 3% year-over-year.
All core measures remain at comfortable levels, around 3% year-over-year.
From a monetary policy standpoint, this print consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75%, later this month.
Weakness in external demand and uncertainties over the domestic policy and trade relations with the U.S. are weighing on investment.
From a monetary policy standpoint, this print consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75%, later this month.
Looking forward, we expect GDP growth of 0.4% for 2019.
Food, housing and education prices lead the gain in the month.
See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.
The Senate’s Speaker, Davi Alcolumbre, has declared his intent of starting the discussions of the second-round of voting today
Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.
Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.
There are still 6 amendments to be voted, which is expected to take place today at 11:00 AM
The Senate’s Speaker, Davi Alcolumbre, has declared his intent of resuming the discussions for the second-round of voting tomorrow.
Despite the improvement, a favorable fiscal scenario depends strictly on the approval of reforms, such as the pension reform.
Looking at the breakdown, the increase in industrial production was not widespread, as just 10 out of 26 activities (38%) expanded during the month.
The underemployment rate, which also considers people working for fewer hours than they would like, reached 24.3%.
A favorable fiscal scenario depends strictly on the approval of reforms, such as the pension reform
According to our seasonally-adjusted series, unemployment rose to 12.0% from 11.9%.
The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.
The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.
The final indicator printed slightly better than the preview released last week, but remains at low levels.
This level of job creation is consistent with GDP growth of around 1.4% in annualized terms.
The capacity utilization for the sector declined 0.2 p.p. (to 69.4%).