Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Global: Vaccination to allow global recovery

Global Scenario Review

< Back

Macro Scenario – Global: Vaccination to allow global recovery

January 15, 2021

COVID-19 vaccine programs started slowly but are gathering speed and will allow an economic recovery in major economies.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

• 
COVID-19 vaccine programs started slowly but are gathering speed and will allow an economic recovery in major economies.

• U.S.: President Biden with a fully Democratic Congress means new fiscal stimulus to boost growth (we revised our GDP forecast for 2021 to 5.5%, from 4.0% in the previous scenario); regulation agenda will likely remain constrained.

• Europe’s new lockdown to last until mid-February, resulting in a 1Q21 GDP drop (-1.0% q/q), but a likely normalization in 2Q21 with vaccines and lower political risks (we kept the 2021 GDP forecast at 5.0%).

• China: the combination of strong recovery and stimulus withdrawal with some buffers will likely lead to a soft landing. We expect GDP to grow 8.5% in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022.

• Commodities: robust global growth and supply restrictions to support prices ahead.

• Recovery will lead to higher yields (we revised our UST10Y forecast to 1.55%, from 1.40% in 2021), but USD will likely remain contained, with synchronized global growth, the Fed’s AIT framework keeping a lid on tightening expectations, and high commodity prices.

• LatAm: getting a commodity boost.




For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



< Back