Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario – Global: U.S. powering ahead, EU resilient, EMs still struggling

Global Scenario Review

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Macro Scenario – Global: U.S. powering ahead, EU resilient, EMs still struggling

April 12, 2021

New infrastructure package in the U.S. will lead to higher growth over the next few years.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

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U.S.: Strong job recovery is likely to generate wage pressure in 2022; a new infrastructure package will lead to higher growth over the next few years (we revised 2022 GDP up to 4.7% from 4.2%).

• Europe: New virus wave delays recovery, but growth remains resilient and vaccination rates are likely to catch up in 2Q21. We expect the euro to rebound to 1.20 EUR/USD as the economy reopens.
• Global Manufacturing: High commodity prices are likely to be sustained as China slowly withdraws stimulus and the DM recovery gains steam.
• LatAm: Less space for monetary policy, despite new lockdowns


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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