Itaú BBA - FX flow was positive by $9.4 billion in 2015

FX and Capital Markets

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FX flow was positive by $9.4 billion in 2015

January 11, 2016

FX flow in 2015 was the best annual result since 2012

(full report attached)

BRL ends first week of the New Year at 4.02 reais per U.S. dollar

During the first week of the year, international markets traded on expectations around the Chinese economy. The Brazilian real topped 4.00 reais and closed at 4.02, depreciating 1.7% during the week and performing in line with its peers (Charts 1, 2, 3 and 4).

Central bank started to roll over swap contracts expiring in February

The monetary authority started to roll over contracts due in February at a pace of 11,600 contracts per day. If this pace is sustained, contracts will be fully rolled over for a sixth consecutive month (Charts 5 and 6).

Negative currency flow in December

The currency flow was negative by $2.1 billion in December, but positive by $9.4 billion during the full year. It was the best annual result since 2012, as $25.5 billion trade inflows outsized $16.1 billion financial outflows (Charts 7 and 8).

No external bond issuance last week

No bonds were issued by Brazilian companies overseas. Issuances added up to $8 billion in 2015 (Chart 9 and table).

Foreign flows to the stock market are negative

Foreign flows to the stock market were negative in the first week of 2016, driven by $120 million outflows from the futures market and $32 million outflows from the spot market (Chart 10).

Institutional investors reduced their positions in dollar futures 

Institutional investors reduced their long positions in dollar futures by $3.5 billion and their long positions in FX swaps by $1.1 billion. Institutional investors reduced their long positions in dollar futures by $1 billion and their positions in cupom cambial by $1.9 billion. Non-residents, banks and institutional investors hold positions of $26 billion, $43 billion and $32 billion, respectively (Charts 11, 12, 13 and 14).


 



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