Itaú BBA - Commodities Monthly Report
  • Stronger growth, higher commodities prices  

    We increased our energy and metal price forecasts due to the better global environment.

  • Higher oil prices in 2018  

    Given the recent decline in inventories, we increased our year-end forecasts to USD 52/bbl for WTI and to USD 55/bbl for Brent.

  • Stable prices in 2018  

    Commodities prices continued to increase in November. For 2018, we expect commodities prices to remain broadly stable

  • Higher copper prices, lower agricultural prices  

    We increased our yearend copper and nickel forecasts. On the other hand, we lowered our forecasts for agricultural prices.

  • Reality check for metal prices  

    Commodity prices increased in September, due to the rise in agricultural and energy. After a two-month rally, metal prices dropped, in line with our scenario.

  • Metals rally unlikely to last  

    Commodity prices dropped in August, due to agricultural and energy prices. Metal rally will fade as China decelerates in 2H17.

  • Higher metal prices  

    We now expect iron ore prices of USD 60/mt and copper prices of USD 5700/t by year-end.

  • Oil: How low can it go?  

    Commodity prices continued to decline in June. We have reduced our year-end oil price forecasts for both 2017 and 2018.

  • Lower Oil Prices in 2018  

    Commodities continued to decline in May, led by metal and energy prices.

  • A correction, not a new downward trend  

    We believe the recent declines in metal and energy prices are a correction and not the start of a new downward trend.

  • Falling commodity prices are not a sign of global weakness  

    Commodity prices fell in March, but this movement is related to specific factors and not a sign of a weak global economy.

  • China’s hawks undermine metal prices  

    Metals back down with China´s tightening concerns and commodities pay back part of February’s gains.

  • Rally still on (for now)  

    Commodity prices extended 4Q16 gains year-to-date ,but we expect our commodity index to fall 7% from current levels in 2017.

  • Enjoy the party, for now  

    Positive outlook for commodities in the short term. But we expect metal and energy prices to decline with China's slowdown.

  • OPEC reaches a deal  

    Oil prices rise as OPEC delivered the deal. Metals with a better outlook, but the recent rally should partially fade in 2017.

  • Trump helps metals, but not enough to trigger a new boom  

    We are revising our metals forecasts upward. OPEC deal murkier, but still in the baseline.

  • OPEC surprises  

    The promise of production cuts reinforces our outlook for oil trading for USD 50-55/bbl in 2017.

  • Sustaining the recovery  

    Commodities rose further since the end of July

  • Drop in oil prices likely to be short-lived  

    We forecast metal prices to decline ahead and lowered our agricultural forecasts.

  • Fundamentals support prices  

    Lower supply and demand growth continue to contribute to the rise in commodities

  • Gains in agricultural and oil prices are consistent with fundamentals  

    Iron ore prices have fallen since late April. We expect the slide to continue.

  • Agricultural Prices Go Up  

    We expect additional gains in crude oil prices and lower prices for iron ore.

  • Weaker U.S. dollar, stronger commodity prices  

    We have raised our price forecasts for base metals and agricultural commodities, after incorporating the weaker dollar

  • We forecast higher oil and lower iron ore prices  

    We lowered our corn and wheat price forecasts.

  • Oil fundamentals suggest a rebound in oil prices starting by mid-year  

    Oil excess supply likely to vanish in 2016, even without OPEC action

  • We expect a partial reversal of the price declines  

    The partial recovery in prices is likely to be a consequence of supply cuts.

  • Have prices reached the bottom?  

    Driven in part by an adjustment in the oil market in 2H16, we forecast a small recovery in commodity prices in 2016

  • Still-challenging scenario but sugar rebounds  

    The scenario for commodity prices remains challenging, but the sugar market is rebounding due to specific factors.

  • No relief  

    We see no relief ahead for commodity producers.

  • Lower price forecasts for oil and metals due to a weaker China  

    An unfavorable environment for commodity-exporting nations.

  • Still Falling  

    Commodity prices resumed the downward trend in July, and we see most of the move as consistent with fundamentals.

  • Downside risks to oil prices; upside risks for grains  

    We see upside risks to grain prices and downside risks to our oil scenario due to supply-side factors.

  • Lower agricultural prices despite El Niño  

    We reduced our agricultural price forecasts due to lower risk of crop losses and no signs of supply reduction

  • Sustainable Increase for Oil, but Temporary for Iron Ore  

    Commodity prices rose in April, driven by a sustainable oil increase and a temporary metals pickup

  • No recovery in sight  

    Commodities resumed a downward trend in March, dragged by falling prices for crude oil and iron ore.

  • Recovery Sustained by Crude Oil  

    Brent crude prices continued to trend upwards in February, reinforcing our scenario of some recovery.

  • Some relief in the Crude-Oil Market  

    Volatility has set the tone for the commodities market since late December

  • Oil: where is the bottom?  

    The Itaú Commodities Index (ICI) has retreated 16.2% since the end of November, once again affected by oil prices.

  • No action, no rebound  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has fallen by 10% since the end of October,

  • A New Reality for Crude Oil  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has declined by 4.5% since late September

  • Not fully reversing the decline  

    The Itaú Commodities Index has fallen by 7.8% since the end of August

  • Lower Soybean and Iron Ore Prices  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has declined 4.7% since the end of July

  • Seeking the Bottom for Agricultural Prices  

    The Itaú Commodities Index (ICI) has fallen by 5.8% since the end of June

  • Stronger Agricultural Supply Reduces Price Forecast  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has fallen 1.6% since the end of May.

  • Falling Prices for Agricultural Commodities and Metals  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has fallen 3.7% since the end of April

  • Forecasts Revised Upward Due to Geopolitical Risk  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has risen 1.0% since the begnning of April

  • Partial Reversals  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has risen 2.3% since mid-March.

  • Higher Agricultural Prices  

    Unfavorable weather in Brazil is driving agricultural commodity prices upward.

  • Weather-Related Uncertainty  

    Hot and dry weather in Brazil has led to reduced crop forecasts for coffee, sugar, corn and soybean.

  • Less Pronounced Decline This Year  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) has fallen by 2.6% since the end of November, with all three of its components sliding.

  • Higher Iron Ore, Lower Crude Oil Prices  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) remained roughly flat in November, rising by 0.2% for the month.

  • We Expect an Additional Drop in Sugar Prices  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) was virtually unchanged in October.

  • Lower Forecasts for Agricultural Prices  

    The Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) fell 2.9% in September.

  • Lower Grain Surplus, Higher Geopolitical Risk  

    Commodity prices have risen since the beginning of August.

  • Favorable Weather Reduces Grain Prices  

    We have implemented a new methodology for the ICI.

  • Unfavorable Macro Scenario for Commodity Prices  

    Concerns related to China and rising yield curves in the U.S. dragged down commodity prices.

  • Lower Prices Consistent With Macro Fundamentals  

    A favorable supply outlook led to downward revisions in agricultural commodity prices.

  • Metal Prices to Stay at Low Levels  

    Commodity prices declined in April, led by disappointing global activity and U.S.-dollar appreciation.

  • Weaker Grain Demand  

    Exports from Brazil and Argentina May Also Affect Prices in the Short Term

  • Falling Prices  

    Shipping Delays in Brazil and Argentina Affect Short-Term Prices.

  • Stronger Demand  

    Lower price volatility

  • Demand for Base Metals Rebounds  

    Despite falling grain and energy prices, base metals led the Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) to increase 0.4% in December from a month ago.

  • Increased Supply and Mixed Performance  

    We are revising our year-end forecasts for the Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) downward.

  • General Decline  

    Fading global optimism and higher supply led to falling commodity prices.

  • Focus is on Demand, for Now  

    Lower risk aversion and the adoption of even looser monetary policies by G3 central banks provided a boost to basic and precious metals.

  • Higher food and energy prices  

    August saw another rise in commodity prices, propelled by oil and grain. Metal prices continued to decline.

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